SHOP - Bulls ReadyPrice has bounced off the lower curve trend line and is looking for more
If the same curve is applied to the upside and used as a resistance line it puts the target at $400
Lets see if the bulls take it that far
Daily timeframe
SHOP trade ideas
Shopify ain't done yet! Pullback then Higher, 50% Move Inbound! Shopify ain't done yet! Pullback then Higher, 50% Move Inbound!
NYSE:SHOP is going higher and presenting a buying opportunity!
50% Potential Upside! 📈
In this video, we dive into NYSE:SHOP , an Ecommerce powerhouse, currently breaking out of a Multi-Year Cup n Handle Pattern!
💡 Key Highlights:
-H5 Indicator: Flashing green for a bullish signal
-Flipping a 4-year resistance area to support
-Volume Insights: Massive GAP to fill
-Technical Analysis: Consolidation box formed on WR%
Targets:
🎯$110
🎯$121
📏$160
🎯$180
Don't miss out on the potential explosive growth of Shopify! Tune in to see why this stock could be a game-changer!
NFA
Shopify (SHOP) Shares Retreat After Sharp SurgeShopify (SHOP) Shares Retreat After Sharp Surge
On 12 November, Shopify released its Q3 earnings report, which exceeded analysts' expectations:
- Earnings per share: actual = $0.36, forecast = $0.27;
- Gross revenue: actual = $2.23 billion, forecast = $2.15 billion.
The company also provided strong earnings guidance for Q4. According to Zacks analysts, Q4 earnings per share could reach $0.39.
As a result, SHOP shares surged by more than 20% following the report's release. But is it the right time to buy now?
A review of SHOP’s price chart suggests that purchasing the stock under current conditions might be premature:
- The price is above the upper boundary of the ascending channel (marked in blue), whereas it has typically remained within this channel since late 2022;
- The RSI indicator signals extreme overbought conditions.
Recent price action supports the idea that the market's initial reaction may have been overly emotional, leaving the stock vulnerable to a pullback. For the first time since the report, SHOP shares closed below $105 yesterday.
While strong fundamentals underpin Shopify's long-term appeal, in the short term, the stock price could decline towards:
- The psychological level of $100 per share;
- Former resistance at $90;
- The median of the ascending channel.
According to TipRanks:
- 11 out of 18 analysts recommend buying SHOP stock;
- The average price target for SHOP is $85 over the next 12 months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Will Santa deliver, or will the buck ram it down?CAPITALCOM:SHOP delivered a strong earnings report recently, key points being:
- Strong revenue growth of 26% YoY
- Improved free cash flow margin, up to 19% from 16%
- Operating income more than doubled YoY
On the flip side:
- High operational spending
- Increase in loan and transaction losses, indicating rising credit risk
- Macroeconomic risks
Heading into Christmas shopping, SHOP is well positioned. Spending this season is expected to rise 7% compared to 2023, and more people are buying early, leading to more consistent sales. Online shopping is expected to rise once again this year, benefiting SHOP.
Obstacles are higher prices, and the outlook of even higher prices to come. The economic plans of the president-elect will without a shed of doubt lead to rising inflation, and many will plan accordingly. However, I believe the upside is greater on the semi-short time, which will help push SHOP share price further. The gap following the earnings release was big, and we might see a pullback short term, so I would hold going long until that gap is resolved.
I don’t expect the gap to be filled, but a retrace must be expected. The most recent high above today’s price is from November 2021, so that is not relevant, so no target. There are no obvious support or resistance levels, as price has been pretty flat for ages. Watch for pullbacks, then do your own DD.
Shopify (SHOP): Preparing for a Long-Term Entry at $49.62Considering Shopify, the situation is unfolding as we anticipated. We expected the beginning of 2024 to potentially mark the peak for Shopify with the completion of Wave (1), indicating a Wave 2 correction. This correction is likely to find support between the 63.8% and 78.6% retracement levels.
Currently, the pattern is showing lower lows and lower highs, suggesting that further price declines may occur, potentially closing existing gaps. Our strategy is still developing, but we plan to place a long-term entry at $49.62 with a stop-loss at $31.
SHOP 100SHOP needs a pullback here for a confident long rather than chasing it.
Expecting this would be the probable path for this run.
There is gap below, it can be filled or can act as support.
Target 1 - 90
Target 2 -100
Stop loss 55
Shopify (SHOP) at Pivotal Levels: Continuation or Support Retest
Shopify (SHOP) is currently trading near 107.13, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is crucial for the next price movement. On the bi-weekly chart, there is also a possibility of the price retesting the previous support at 90 if 107.13 is broken. The next move will depend on the strength of buyers versus sellers.
---
1. **Entry Points:**
- **Scenario 1 (Bullish Continuation):** Enter after a clear breakout and a bullish close above 107.13, confirming the uptrend.
- **Scenario 2 (Support Retest):** If 107.13 is broken, wait for a retest of the strong support level at 90, looking for positive reversal signals.
2. **Targets:**
- Target 1: 122.72 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement).
- Target 2: 176.29 (previous high).
3. **Stop Loss:**
- **Scenario 1 (Bullish Continuation):** Stop loss at 104.99 (2% below 107.13).
- **Scenario 2 (Support Retest):** Stop loss at 88.20 (2% below 90).
4. **Confirmation Factors:**
- Strong breakout above 107.13 with high volume or a bullish candle.
- Positive reversal signals (e.g., Pin Bar or Bullish Engulfing) at 90 if it is retested.
5. **Additional Notes:**
- 107.13 is a pivotal level; holding above it supports a bullish continuation.
- If this level is broken, 90 becomes a key support level to watch for buyer re-entry.
---
**Disclaimer:**
This is a trading idea based on technical analysis and not financial advice. Please manage your risk and monitor the market carefully before making any decisions.
Shopify on CD leg of Harmonic Bat patternBy breaking over point point B, Shopify has confirmed CD leg of Harmonic Bat pattern with target as 158.
Buy side entry levels at 100 or 88
$SHOP JADE LIZARD TRADE, 37 DTE (>$68 on 11/22 preferred)NYSE:SHOP JADE LIZARD TRADE, 37 DTE
Sell SHOP $94 Call 11/22
Buy SHOP $95 Call 11/22
~{share price: $81.85}~
Sell SHOP $70 Put 11/22
Credit to open: ~$200
Jade Lizard = Credit from the short put (strike price below the price) exceeds the max loss of the call credit spread (strike prices above the price).
Expiration scenarios:
(1) Share price above $95 @ expy, then profit of $100, (by definition, there's no risk to the upside with a 'jade lizard' trade).
(2) Share price between $70-$95 @ expy, then profit of $200.
(4) Share price below $70 @ expy, then assigned to buy 100 shares at an avg cost of $68.00.
Shopify (SHOP): Continuing Sell-Off!Shopify (SHOP): NYSE:SHOP
We've reintegrated Shopify into our portfolio after a lengthy period without analysis, believing we've witnessed the conclusion of a Wave 5, thereby completing this cycle (1). Consequently, we are now in Wave (2), anticipated to be a three-part correction downwards. Our target retracement ranges between 50% and 78.6%, equating to $57.60 and $38.24, respectively. The subordinate Wave 4 at $45.50 represents a critical level for Shopify, potentially marking a turning point. As long as we don't surpass the Wave 5 peak of $85.50, we don't foresee an upward continuation.
Should we form Wave A, an Expanded Flat exceeding Wave 5 but not surpassing 138%, might be observed. If this threshold is breached, our current scenario would need revision, possibly interpreting the subordinate Wave 4 at $45.50 as our Wave (2), indicating we're in Wave (3). Unless this scenario unfolds, we maintain the view that we're in a downtrend, awaiting a significant Wave 2 correction. However, falling below 78.6% would likely lead to a sharp decline towards $23.64.
Shopify (SHOP): Riding the 130% rally after the earnings surgeShopify kicked off the earnings week with a significant surge, rising 130% since our entry. We’ve taken additional profits at this level and canceled our second limit order. The stock has reached the 161.8% Fibonacci target at $111, aligning with our strategy.
In its third-quarter earnings report, Shopify reported revenue that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, with double-digit gross merchandise volume growth. Looking ahead, the company forecasts a mid-to-high-twenties percentage growth in revenue for Q4, supported by the same factors driving its strong performance this year.
While Shopify continues its upward momentum, there’s no clear indication of when this rally might lose steam. The RSI is currently overbought, suggesting a potential pullback in the near future. If we spot a wave 4 correction, we will reassess and update the chart for a potential new entry.
SHOPIFY (SHOP) Explosive Breakout Rally with Earnings Boost!The Shopify (SHOP) weekly timeframe chart showcases a massive breakout, driven by exceptional Q3 earnings performance. The stock has successfully hit Target 2 (TP2 at $109.30), with the remaining targets TP3 ($132.50) and TP4 ($146.84) in sight.
SHOPIFY (SHOP) Stock Key Technical Highlights:
Clear Entry at $71.76 : The bullish momentum initiated a long trade setup, confirmed by the breakout above critical levels.
Earnings Power-Up : Shopify's Q3 revenue surged 26% year-over-year, reaching $2.16 billion, and net income hit $828 million. This exceptional growth propelled the stock price up 22% to $109.81 post-earnings release, further cementing the breakout rally.
Dynamic Moving Averages : The RISOLOGICAL Lines (all GREEN lines) beautifully supports the rally, reflecting strong upward momentum.
SHOPIFY Trade Analysis:
Risk-Reward Balance: The stop-loss (SL) placed at $60.16 offers an optimized risk management strategy.
Profit Potential: With TP2 already achieved, the path toward TP3 ($132.50) and TP4 ($146.84) looks promising, driven by positive market sentiment and strong fundamentals.
Final Words:
Shopify's post-earnings rally demonstrates a perfect confluence of technical and fundamental strength.
Keep a close eye on volume and momentum as the next targets approach!
SHOP eyes on $78.47 below, 90 above: key range to form next moveFollow up to previous Swing Trades idea (click)
SHOP continues its recovery from bottom.
It has just retested a Golden Genesis fib.
Critical support to break next resistance.
$ 89.65 - 90.04 is the major target.
$ 83.76 should bring some violence.
$ 73.60 will be critical trend support.
Previous Chart:
==================================================================
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a long term bull reversal trendshop has a huge run up to this gap up open that has formed a daily shooting star or doji. all the support zones below the high flying daily outlyer would remain buy if the pullback were a healthy consolidation pattern. beyond the current highs there isnt much resistance until the all time high. this market has run over 700 days from $24 to the current $106. that being said the current intraday pattern is still bearish closing down from the open and losing more in post market. buyers will probably find one of these market structure levels if the continuation bull weekly or monthly stays in place with the trend. if we break above the day high well certainly gain a lot more as well.
LIKE I SAID: SHOPIFY WAS THE NEXT RETAIL STOCK TO FLY📢 Before all the BIG accounts start swarming all over NYSE:SHOP like flies on 💩, remember this call in the chaos! 🤪
Catalyst: Big earnings beat prediction based on NASDAQ:AAPL and NASDAQ:AMZN results and a strong consumer outlook.
Trade Setup: Entry, Stop Loss, Price Targets.
Next Retail Stock: Prediction on the next big retail stock to fly.
#HIGHFIVESETUP: My proven trading strategy.
Valuation: Detailed analysis based on my valuation analyzer.
Let's continue to crush it together in this amazing community! I appreciate you all! ♥️
SHOPIFY: The next Retail Stock to Take Flight! NYSE:SHOP
🚀 SHOPIFY: The Next Retail Stock to Take Flight! 100% MOVE INBOUND! 🚀
Share this so all retail investors are prepared before earnings next Tuesday!
In this video, we’ll cover:
1️⃣ Fundamental Analysis: A deep dive into Shopify using my Valuation Analyzer.
2️⃣ Massive 3-Year Cup N Handle Pattern: What this means for $SHOP.
3️⃣ High Five Setup: How Shopify meets my proven trading strategy.
You’ve seen NYSE:PLTR at ATHs, and NASDAQ:SOFI , NYSE:HIMS , and NASDAQ:TSLA pushing higher. We’re already in these trades, but staying ahead of the curve and finding the next big opportunity is key. Shopify is that next big opportunity IMO. We’re among the first to the party, and it’s not crowded… YET.
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Shopify: Commerce SuccessShopify continues to dominate the e-commerce platform space, making significant strides in expanding its ecosystem for businesses of all sizes. As the company integrates more deeply into social media and international markets, Shopify is well-positioned to benefit from both consumer demand and business needs for seamless online selling. This strong presence in the global e-commerce sector makes Shopify a compelling investment for those looking to capitalize on the continued shift to online retail. NYSE:SHOP
Financial Performance
Revenue Growth: Shopify reported revenue of $2.05 billion for Q2 2024, representing a 20.7% year-over-year increase. The company’s annual revenue is on track to exceed $7.76 billion in 2024, up 23.18% from the previous year. This strong growth has been driven by the expansion of its merchant solutions and Shopify Payments
Earnings Beat: Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Shopify has maintained its profitability, with earnings coming in stronger than expected for several quarters. Analysts have upgraded the stock, citing its ability to continue growing in a competitive space
Cash Flow: Shopify’s cash flow has remained robust, driven by its diversified revenue streams, including subscription solutions and payment services, allowing it to reinvest in international expansion and new technologies.
Strategic Expansion & Innovations
Social E-Commerce & Partnerships: Shopify has expanded its integration with social media platforms like YouTube, allowing more merchants to embed shopping experiences into video content. This positions Shopify to capture more sales in a fast-growing segment of e-commerce
Cloud Infrastructure: The company continues to invest in improving its cloud-based infrastructure, allowing it to scale efficiently as more merchants come onboard. Its Shopify Plus platform, designed for larger enterprises, has seen significant growth.
International Expansion: Shopify has continued its aggressive expansion into international markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, increasing its merchant base and revenue potential globally.
Technical Analysis
Stock Performance: Shopify’s stock has rebounded strongly from its lows earlier in the year, trading at $78.68 as of September 2024. This represents a 4.6% increase from the previous week. With a price target now upgraded to $99 by some analysts, there’s potential for a continued upward trend
Valuation: Shopify’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is around 13.04, which, while high, is justified by its strong revenue growth and market-leading position. This suggests that investors are paying a premium for its potential to continue expanding rapidly
Fundamental Perspective
Shopify is one of the most compelling plays in e-commerce and SaaS. While it doesn’t currently pay a dividend, its high growth rate, strong financial performance, and strategic innovations make it an attractive investment for those looking for exposure to digital commerce.
Upcoming Earnings Dates
Q3 2024 Earnings: Expected November 2, 2024
Q4 2024 Earnings: Expected February 5, 2025
Shopify’s continued focus on social commerce and international growth makes it a strong buy for long-term investors, particularly those looking to ride the wave of e-commerce expansion globally.
$78.68 NYSE:SHOP
Shopify (SHOP)Calls above 79.36
Puts below 78.86
A wedge pattern can signal either bullish or bearish price reversals.
The trend lines drawn above and below the price chart pattern can converge to help a trader or analyst anticipate a breakout reversal from either side. This strategy is based on price action and the volume of a candle upon breakout.
$SHOP trade idea 2.0Hi everyone,
I am back with a new trade idea on NYSE:SHOP ...
My previous one went quite well and so the next one I followed with but didn't post.
My idea is similar to the one before this one,
NYSE:SHOP is at a point where it's in between 2 Gaps it has left behind during past Earnings,
it does not matter that Earnings are positive or negative because I've seen that can only amplify current trends.
Judging by past chart behaviour, I believe it will first fill the higher Gap as its creation is prior the new one and size/gravity is lower, it might even happen that it is filled 2 days before new Earnings strengthening my thesis (just like on 7/Aug/2024).
I'll be writing down past chart behaviour and you can check yourself the movements in the chart itself.
By no mean am I a fortune teller but my thesis is fair,
It might even happen that it keeps going up and thanks to Christmas usual volume it hits the 1 week FVG above, only time will tell.
27/Oct/2022 Earnings - Buy in 2 days before | Massive FVG on the upside
*FVG filled before next earnings
*New minor FVG created on the downside (20/Jan/2023)
15/Feb/2023 Earnings - Short 2 days before | Small Gap + FVG below
*Price perfectly fills gap + FVG
*Creates new gap on the upside (15/Feb/2023) and leaves previous FVG unclosed
4/May/2023 Earnings - Buy in 2 days before | Gap + Previous big FVG upside
*Fills in previous unclosed FVG + new Gap
*Creates new major Gap on the downside (4/May/2023)
2/Aug/2023 Earnings - Short 2 days before | Major Gap on downside
*Touches Gap, bounces shortly and creates new gap on the downside
*Fills in own Gap and closed major Gap
*Creates new major weekly FVGs + minor Daily FVG (18/Sep/2023)
2/Nov/2023 Earnings - Buy in 2 days before | Major weekly FVGs upside
*Fills in weekly FVGs + daily FVGs
*Leaves new massive Gap on the downside (2/Nov/2023)
13/Feb/2024 Earnings - Short 2 days before | Massive Gap downside
*Heads towards massive Gap below not reaching it yet
*Creates new big Gap on the upside (13/Feb/2024)
8/May/2024 Earnings - Short 2 days before | Unclosed Massive Gap downside
*Closes massive Gap on the downside 2 days before new Earnings
*Creates massive Gap on the upside (8/May/2024) + small Gap (1/Aug/2024)
7/Aug/2024 Earnings - Long 2 days before | Massive Gap upside
*Closes massive Gap on the upside
*Creates massive Gap on the downside (7/Aug/2024)
31/Oct/2024 Earnings - still to come....
*There are 2 open Gaps, one on the upside and one on the downside
*The one on the upside is a minor one and has already been touched and created before the downside one
*Just like on 5/Aug/2024, it might close the Gap 2 days before to then sell off
Shopify Inc | SHOP & AIShopify stock has seen sideways momentum for the last few weeks despite posting good results in the recent quarter. One of the reasons is the bull run in early 2023 due to which the stock has seen over 60% jump in year-to-date. Shopify has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters and there are strong tailwinds that can help the company improve its topline. At the same time, Shopify has been able to improve the conversion of Gross Merchandise Value or GMV into revenue due to better services. Shopify’s GMV has increased 11x between the last quarter of 2016 and the last quarter of 2022. During this time, Shopify’s quarterly revenue base has increased from $130 million to $1.7 billion or 13x.
Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was $195 billion and rapid growth in this key metric should help the company improve monetization. The company has also undertaken some cost-cutting which is having a positive impact on the bottom line. Analysts have forecasted Shopify’s EPS at $1 for fiscal 2025 which means that the stock is trading 60 times the EPS estimate of 2025. However, better monetization and focus on cost optimization could help the company deliver good EPS growth in the next few quarters. The PS ratio is also at 12 which is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic years. Shopify stock can deliver good returns in the long term as the company adds new services and improves its GMV growth trajectory.
Shopify reported a GMV of $5.5 billion in December 2016 quarter. This has increased to $60 billion in the recent December 2022 quarter. Hence, Shopify’s GMV has increased to 11 times within the last seven years. On the other hand, Shopify’s revenue during the December quarter has increased by 13 times, from $130 million to $1.7 billion. This growth trend shows that the company is able to convert more GMV into actual revenue. One of the main reasons behind this trend is that Shopify is adding new services and it can charge customers a higher commission for these services.
Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was a staggering $195 billion. The company has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters. The YoY revenue growth hit a bottom of 15% in June 2022. Since then the YoY revenue growth has picked up again as the company faces easier comps. In the recent quarter, the company reported YoY revenue growth of over 30% which is quite high when we consider that the GMV base of Shopify is more than $200 billion.
The revenue growth will not build a bullish momentum for the stock unless the company can deliver sustainable profitability. During the pandemic years, Shopify’s revenue growth and high EPS helped the stock reach its peak. The company would need to focus on profitability in the next few quarters in order to rebuild a long-term bullish rally. Shopify has divested from its logistics business which should help improve the bottom line. We should also see better monetization of current services as the company tries to build new AI tools.
The EPS estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead have steadily improved in the last few quarters. According to current consensus, Shopify should be able to deliver EPS of $1 in fiscal year 2025. However, it is highly likely that Shopify will beat these estimates as the company launches new initiatives to improve monetization of its massive GMV base. Shopify’s trailing twelve months EPS during the peak of the pandemic went to $2.6. If the company can get close to this EPS rate by 2025, we should see a significant bullish run in the stock. The recent cost-cutting should also help the company improve the bottom line. We have seen a similar trend in all the Big Tech companies who have reported a rapid growth in EPS as their headcount was reduced.
While most analysts agree over the long-term revenue growth potential of Shopify, some of them are wary of the pricey valuation of the stock. Shopify is trading at 12 times its PS ratio. This is quite high when we compare with most of the other tech players and even Shopify’s peer like Wix (WIX), Etsy (ETSY), and others. However, it should be noted that Shopify’s PS ratio is significantly lower than the average PS multiple prior to the pandemic when the stock had an average PS ratio of over 20.
Shopify’s revenue estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead is close to $10 billion which is equal to annualized revenue growth of over 25%. If we look at this metric, Shopify stock is trading at 7 times the revenue estimate of fiscal year 2025. This looks reasonable if the company can also manage to improve its EPS trend over the next few years.
The long-term tailwind from ecommerce growth is still very strong. Shopify will benefit from an increase in GMV and a higher ecommerce market share in key markets. This should help the company gain pricing leverage over other competitors and also improve its monetization momentum
Shopify has reported a faster revenue growth rate compared to its GMV growth in the last few years. This shows that the company is able to charge higher rate for additional services. There has been an acceleration in revenue growth over the last few quarters. Shopify has also divested from logistics services which were pulling down the profitability of the company.
Shopify could deliver over 20% YoY revenue growth for the next few years as the company gains from strong tailwinds within the ecommerce business. If Shopify regains its earlier ttm EPS of $2 by 2025, we could see a strong bull run within the stock. While the stock is not cheap, it seems to be reasonably valued and longer-term investors could gain a better return from Shopify, making the stock a Buy at current price.
Shopify possible C&H breakoutPossible Cup and Handle breakout. If the move confirms above 113 we could see some a nice move
