$SHOPNYSE:SHOP this thing is building nice consolidation on the daily , looking to fill that gap at 70 above. Expect a breakout tomorrow, or next week at latestLongby bdijondev1
SHOP curling back up to continue filling the gapSHOP is about to break the AVWAP from it's recent high in the gap. I feel it will have a little bump at 69 but eventually fills the gap at $75.Longby scw00081
Downtrend in Shopify?Shopify has struggled since late 2021 and now some traders may expect another push to the downside. The first pattern on today’s chart is the pair of high-volume bearish gaps after quarterly results on February 13 and May 8. Both drops came despite better-than-expected earnings, which may suggest the e-commerce stock is a distribution phase. Second, SHOP rebounded from the last selloff but stalled at the preceding low around $68. (Also notice how the first drop occurred at a key low from late 2020.) Have old support zones become new resistance areas? Third, prices are reversing at the falling 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Fourth, the 50-day SMA had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA earlier this month. That may reflect a bearish longer-term trend. Stochastics are additionally starting to dip from an overbought condition. Finally, TradeStation data shows that SHOP is a highly active underlier in the options market, averaging about 110,000 contracts per day in the last month. Traders looking for downside in the next few weeks may consider a strategy such as the July 60-July 55 put spread. It’s quoted for less than $0.75 and could potentially widen to $5 if SHOP falls slightly below its recent low. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities' account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means. by TradeStation2210
Shopify (SHOP) Fundamental Analysis and Fair Value Estimate **1. Revenue and Growth:** - **Q1 2024 Revenue**: Increased by 23% YoY to $1.9 billion. - **Adjusted Growth**: 29% growth when adjusting for the sale of logistics businesses. **2. Profitability:** - **Gross Profit**: Grew by 33%, reaching $957 million. - **Gross Margin**: Improved to 51.4% from 47.5% last year. - **Net Loss**: $273 million or $0.21 per share, compared to a net income of $68 million last year. **3. Cash Flow:** - **Free Cash Flow**: $232 million in Q1 2024, up from $86 million last year. - **Free Cash Flow Margin**: Doubled to 12% YoY. **4. Balance Sheet:** - **Cash and Marketable Securities**: $5.2 billion as of March 31, 2024. - **Net Cash Position**: $4.3 billion after accounting for convertible notes. **5. Market Position and Competition:** - **GMV**: Grew by 23% to $60.9 billion in Q1 2024. - **Merchant Solutions**: Driven by growth in GMV and Shopify Payments. **6. Valuation Metrics:** - **Price-to-Sales Ratio**: 14.1x vs. industry average of 16.9x. - **Fair PS Ratio**: Estimated fair PS ratio is 10.1x, indicating potential overvaluation based on current metrics. **7. Fair Value Estimates:** - **Morningstar**: $68 per share. - **Simply Wall St**: $58.61 per share. - **Yahoo Finance**: Approximately $49.16 per share. **Conclusion:** - **Fair Value Range**: $50 to $68 per share. - **Considerations**: Strong revenue growth, improving margins, and robust cash flow support the higher valuation, while economic cycle exposure and SMB customer risks may introduce volatility.Longby DrSaud1Updated 1
SHOP all set to 75 +All the indicators are firing positive for $ SHOP Expect a quick rise in the next few days. Bull Bear Power looking very positive.. Longby gnvenkysf1
SHOP: Resistance and supportHello, SHOP is steadily raising and looks like at a good support. Will it fill the gap below or above first? But for long term, it looks good. NYSE:SHOP by MarathonToMoonUpdated 5
GAP FILL! SHOP otw to 67 Shop has been forming a rounded base after a major correction and I believe we will see an upward trend and flight through the Gap Fill zone and go back to 67-75 price range Above 62.31 we should see the Gap begin filling on the 15minute the IHNS is ready to pop and above it is a gap SHOP's bull flag played out and I now see an inverted head and shoulders before we go to 67 from 61.83 I plan to buy many more calls with an expire at most of14dte and a PT of 65-67 NASDAQ:PYPL looks good with the sector; will post that chart before the weekend Will update when I have more; comment any questions or chart requestsLongby GunvirUpdated 223
SHOP 11%-34% increase from here Bottomed at a support, looks bullish going into nvdia earnings. 1st target is 65.46 2n target is 78.91 Longby dwa4949Updated 131312
SHOP - Shopify - Short Set UpLooks like a short term reversal on 1H TF. will trigger my entry on break of 63.48 Entry 63.48 Stoploss 64.70 tp-1 62.27 tp-2 61.05 #Trading #Technical #Crypto #Stocks #commodities Shortby BullBearBTC13
SHOP - might not fill this gapHOP looks like its fallen off of peoples radar. Daily BB extended below the weekly with nice follow through. Positive improvement on the KST and Chaikin oscillator. The blue AVWAP overhead is anchored to the July 2023 high and aligns to the 1.272 extension. It likely sees selling there, which would frustrate buyers that are looking for it to fill the 4/16 gap. by Ben_1148x20
Time to shop for some SHOPI sent this out to our chat room a couple of months ago and it has been following the forecast nicely. If things stay on track, we should start seeing some excitement soon.Longby BlueLineTradingLLC2
SHOP BUYThe price is moving from the resistance zone that was around $90. The market has driven the price down to the upward trendline. This trendline is supported by the weekly demand zone, which is very close to the monthly buy zone. Although there is a risk on the daily chart of closing the gap down to $48.80, I believe this is a good opportunity to take a buy position.Longby forex_member7
Shopify Inc | SHOP & AIShopify stock has seen sideways momentum for the last few weeks despite posting good results in the recent quarter. One of the reasons is the bull run in early 2023 due to which the stock has seen over 60% jump in year-to-date. Shopify has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters and there are strong tailwinds that can help the company improve its topline. At the same time, Shopify has been able to improve the conversion of Gross Merchandise Value or GMV into revenue due to better services. Shopify’s GMV has increased 11x between the last quarter of 2016 and the last quarter of 2022. During this time, Shopify’s quarterly revenue base has increased from $130 million to $1.7 billion or 13x. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was $195 billion and rapid growth in this key metric should help the company improve monetization. The company has also undertaken some cost-cutting which is having a positive impact on the bottom line. Analysts have forecasted Shopify’s EPS at $1 for fiscal 2025 which means that the stock is trading 60 times the EPS estimate of 2025. However, better monetization and focus on cost optimization could help the company deliver good EPS growth in the next few quarters. The PS ratio is also at 12 which is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic years. Shopify stock can deliver good returns in the long term as the company adds new services and improves its GMV growth trajectory. Shopify reported a GMV of $5.5 billion in December 2016 quarter. This has increased to $60 billion in the recent December 2022 quarter. Hence, Shopify’s GMV has increased to 11 times within the last seven years. On the other hand, Shopify’s revenue during the December quarter has increased by 13 times, from $130 million to $1.7 billion. This growth trend shows that the company is able to convert more GMV into actual revenue. One of the main reasons behind this trend is that Shopify is adding new services and it can charge customers a higher commission for these services. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was a staggering $195 billion. The company has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters. The YoY revenue growth hit a bottom of 15% in June 2022. Since then the YoY revenue growth has picked up again as the company faces easier comps. In the recent quarter, the company reported YoY revenue growth of over 30% which is quite high when we consider that the GMV base of Shopify is more than $200 billion. The revenue growth will not build a bullish momentum for the stock unless the company can deliver sustainable profitability. During the pandemic years, Shopify’s revenue growth and high EPS helped the stock reach its peak. The company would need to focus on profitability in the next few quarters in order to rebuild a long-term bullish rally. Shopify has divested from its logistics business which should help improve the bottom line. We should also see better monetization of current services as the company tries to build new AI tools. The EPS estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead have steadily improved in the last few quarters. According to current consensus, Shopify should be able to deliver EPS of $1 in fiscal year 2025. However, it is highly likely that Shopify will beat these estimates as the company launches new initiatives to improve monetization of its massive GMV base. Shopify’s trailing twelve months EPS during the peak of the pandemic went to $2.6. If the company can get close to this EPS rate by 2025, we should see a significant bullish run in the stock. The recent cost-cutting should also help the company improve the bottom line. We have seen a similar trend in all the Big Tech companies who have reported a rapid growth in EPS as their headcount was reduced. While most analysts agree over the long-term revenue growth potential of Shopify, some of them are wary of the pricey valuation of the stock. Shopify is trading at 12 times its PS ratio. This is quite high when we compare with most of the other tech players and even Shopify’s peer like Wix (WIX), Etsy (ETSY), and others. However, it should be noted that Shopify’s PS ratio is significantly lower than the average PS multiple prior to the pandemic when the stock had an average PS ratio of over 20. Shopify’s revenue estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead is close to $10 billion which is equal to annualized revenue growth of over 25%. If we look at this metric, Shopify stock is trading at 7 times the revenue estimate of fiscal year 2025. This looks reasonable if the company can also manage to improve its EPS trend over the next few years. The long-term tailwind from ecommerce growth is still very strong. Shopify will benefit from an increase in GMV and a higher ecommerce market share in key markets. This should help the company gain pricing leverage over other competitors and also improve its monetization momentum Shopify has reported a faster revenue growth rate compared to its GMV growth in the last few years. This shows that the company is able to charge higher rate for additional services. There has been an acceleration in revenue growth over the last few quarters. Shopify has also divested from logistics services which were pulling down the profitability of the company. Shopify could deliver over 20% YoY revenue growth for the next few years as the company gains from strong tailwinds within the ecommerce business. If Shopify regains its earlier ttm EPS of $2 by 2025, we could see a strong bull run within the stock. While the stock is not cheap, it seems to be reasonably valued and longer-term investors could gain a better return from Shopify, making the stock a Buy at current price. Longby moonyptoUpdated 2211
SHOP “Shopify”……”Potential Reversal”SHOP “Shopify” is retesting a trend line that goes back to October 2022……tested the same trendline in October 2023…..we’re currently bouncing from this trend line as of last week and headed towards a recent gap to the downside from Q1 earnings. After a nice bullish candle last week, I believe we’ll see more bullish momentum soon once buyers step in…..let’s see how this one plays outLongby Gutta_CEO_5
SHOP Long Term Swing Idea Into August or Jan 2025Break above this box and you wont ever have to look back here.Longby rakidorii0
$SHOP Towards $70What do we see here? - NYSE:SHOP ended the day with a bullish outside day. - Previous HOD for May 31 is $59.23, can serve as resistance. - Previous weekly high is $60.11 and can also serve as resistance. - GAP to be filled to the upside $64.20 - $75.30. - RSI is at 39.24 and moving upwards slowly. - MACD (blue line) is above the signal (orange line), indicates continued bullish movement - 5-month monthly fibonacci patterns highlights potential resistance on 0.618 ($63.10) and 0.5 ($68.54) (which is the 0.618 of a bullish fib pattern on a larger time block - GAP also potentially to be filled to the downside $55.51 - $48.86) Longby Brandonthrives2
$SHOP will push higher to end 2Q24May 30, 2024 @6:57AM MONTHLY - Currently on a downtrend (2D-2D-2D Continuation) #TheStrat - Finishing off a Stage 3 #TheMoneyFlow - MACD curling down, RSI curling down at 46 WEEKLY - MACD beginning to curl up - Price is b/t the 0.618 & 0.786 monthly fibs (Oct 2023 - Feb 2024) - Price is slightly under last week's middle price of $58.51 at $58.18 (pre-market) DAILY - Price appears to moving upward after touching lower weekly broadening formation (BF) #thestrat - Gap to be filled above ($64-75) and gap to be filled below ($55-$48) - MACD and RSI curling up - On May 28, NYSE:GS maintained NYSE:SHOP as a BUY DECISION: HOLDING 2 NYSE:SHOP 65C 19 JUL 24 (AVG: $1.76) (DOWN 30% @ 1.25).Longby Brandonthrives2
SHOP Potential Trade IdeaVandy Notes: Break of 58.70/ Break and hold above 60 Raki Notes: Enter above 58.50 break with SL below 57Longby rakidorii1
SHOP - A potential setup for a swing tradeRemain vigilant for daily reversal candles occurring near the support area. In the event of a daily closing breach of the support levels (red lines), there is a possibility of further downward movement, emphasizing the importance of implementing risk management strategies.Longby Financial_Insights4
SHOP drop at a serious support: eyeing 56-57 for possible bottomSHOP had a big drop with last earnings. It has fallen into a serious support zone. This would be a good spot for bulls to hold. $ 56.12 - 57.16 is the immediate support. $ 49.20 - 50.88 is next support and stronger. $ 63.44 - 63.84 is the first resistance above. ======================================= by EuroMotifUpdated 7
SHOP LONGWEEKLY GOLDEN POCKET Fib tool used to identify bounce in price and currently lines up well for longterm LONGSLongby LAIC_Miz1
Shopify looking to go long!!!shopify completes CD swing, now at 78.6% retracement looking to go long, should recover about 100% over the next year or 2Longby TobiArayomi3
SHOP to the upsideI will be taking Shopify calls. Loving the entire set up right now~by Bigmoe-Trading7