SPOTD trade ideas
Spotify - Daily ChartTechnical analysis of Spotify on daily chart. All explanations are done on the chart.
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Spotify Ascending Wedge- 22% Long positionOn the 2hr chart there is an ascending wedge where spotify is clearly trading in between. If all goes well, it should bounce off the bottom white line of the wedge, if not it should bounce off around the yellow support line (in theory). If it bounces from the white support line we can expect a 22% gain in a long term position.
My idea of a swing trade would be:
1. Would buy before the white support line and sell at the top.
2. Stop- loss just beneath the yellow support line
What do you think?
SPOT Breakout?Keeping my eye on SPOT here for a possible breakout post-earnings.
Why?
Primarily because of the 2020 campaign that Spotify has been on to increase their members by bringing in high-profile podcasters.
2020 Q 3
> In comes Joe Rogan.
10,000,000 YouTube subscribers and has claimed on more than one occasion that his audio-only podcasts generate 4-5x the amount of downloads as his YouTube videos do views.
With average views of 2m+ per YouTube video, an estimated 8m-10m+ podcast downloads per session can be assumed.
4-5 Videos/Podcasts a week, you do the math.
Since the deal with Spotify was announced in May, Joe's average monthly YouTube views alone have increased by over 40%.
Generating over 100,000,000 YouTube views per month and thus an estimated 400,000,000 - 500,000,000 podcast downloads per month.
Spotify picked up Joe Rogan exclusively for an unknown amount, though it's suspected to be in the range of ~100m$
Which have no doubt... IS A STEAL!
A multi-year contract with the MOST searched podcaster on multiple platforms and GROWING, generating nearly half a billion downloads a month, for ONLY 100m$.
- In a statement about the deal with Mr. Rogan, the company (Spotify) said his podcast was already “the most-searched-for podcast on Spotify and is the leading show on practically every other podcasting platform."
We're about to see not just a massive up-tick in Spotifys base subscriber numbers, but also their revenue, as they get to paste 15+ ads into each 2-3hr long podcast of EACH one of Joe's 1,550+ episodes that are now available for all to listen to on Spotify.
Watch for 10/29/2020...
> Beat on subscriber growth
> Beat on total user growth
> Beat on revenue
> Updated forward looking guidance
> Analyst price target upgrades
SPOT touches the 8 day and sells off below the trend lineSPOT has a similar selling pattern to FB today where it touched the 8 day as its high and then sharply sold off below its accelerated trend line. Follow through selling could take it to the $225-$228 area where the action will again have to be mapped
#swing #tradeidea Long over 250 Tight stopsPossible bounce area
Spotify misses by $0.03, misses on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line
Reports Q3 (Sep) loss of €0.58 per share, excluding non-recurring items, €0.03 worse than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of (€0.55); revenues rose 14.1% year/year to €1.98 bln vs the €2 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
"Total MAUs grew 29% Y/Y to 320 million in the quarter and above the top end of our guidance range. From a regional perspective, Y/Y growth in North America and Europe accelerated more than 400 bps and 100 bps, respectively, while Latin America and Rest of World continued to see the fastest growth, growing 30% and 51%, respectively."
Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of EUR 2.00-2.20 bln vs. €2.19 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. Total MAUs: 340-345 million.
