BrentAbout oil I think we should wait for 73,715 to be touched. then we can think about sell from 73,740 after confirmations. It will be Risk/Reward 6 if it hits our target 72,365
the next possible long position will be somewhere around 72. #DYOR
BCOUSD trade ideas
Brent - Will stability return to the region?!Brent oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. We will look for oil buying positions on the midline of the ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of this channel, we can witness the continuation of the upward trend. On the other hand, within the supply zone, we can make short-term sales with appropriate risk reward.
China has announced plans to implement a “relatively accommodative” monetary policy. This announcement, accompanied by promises of support for more “active” fiscal policies, signals Beijing’s intention to further ease economic conditions. The news drew significant market attention, resulting in a 6% rise in the value of Chinese investment funds on U.S. stock exchanges. Similarly, the Australian dollar gained notable strength in currency markets, and commodity prices saw an uptick.
Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg sources, Chinese drone manufacturers have recently imposed restrictions on exporting key components used in drone production to the United States and Europe. This move strongly suggests that Beijing is unwilling to exert pressure on Moscow to end the war.
On another front, Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, announced after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend that he is making serious efforts to end the war.Writing on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump stated, “A ceasefire must be declared immediately, and negotiations must begin.” He added, “I know the President of Russia well. Now is the time for him to act. China can help. The world is watching!”
Simultaneously, the Biden administration, with Trump’s backing, is working to secure a ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages in Gaza before Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The negotiations have resumed swiftly and discreetly, with close coordination between Biden’s and Trump’s teams. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s newly appointed envoy to the Middle East, is playing a pivotal role in these talks.
Trump has demanded the release of hostages before his inauguration, warning that otherwise, “hell will break loose in the Middle East.” Biden administration officials have welcomed Trump’s support and are striving to ensure a smooth transition between the two administrations. Adam Boehler has been appointed as the lead official for hostage affairs and is expected to play an active role in Gaza negotiations.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs anticipates that OPEC+ production will remain data-dependent. The bank expects OPEC+ to increase production for four consecutive months starting in July, coinciding with strong summer demand. Additionally, Goldman Sachs predicts that India’s oil demand will grow by 0.3 million barrels per day next year.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. crude oil production is forecast to reach 13.24 million barrels per day this year and 13.52 million barrels per day next year. The EIA has also revised its 2024 price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil downward, projecting $76.51 per barrel for Brent and $80.49 per barrel for WTI. These figures are lower than last month’s forecasts of $77 and $80.95 per barrel, respectively.
U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 0.499 million barrels in the week ending December 6, 2024, following a 1.232 million barrel increase the previous week. According to the API Weekly Statistical Bulletin, this marks the fifth increase in eight weeks, defying market expectations of a 1.3 million barrel draw.
Brent: Key Levels for Upside or DownsideHello,
BLACKBULL:BRENT has once again dropped towards its previous lows. For an upward move, we need to see a breakout and confirmation above the 1D PP. A definitive upward shift requires a breakout and confirmation above the 1M PP. If it fails to hold above the 1D PP, further downside is likely.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
UKOIL - Long SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level higher.
But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some time of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure.
We can notice the break of market structure (sign of strength) on key liquidity level with GAP, so there is a higher probability to see price higher at least on opposite level (marked higher).
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
UKOIL - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower.
But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some time of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure.
We can notice the break of market structure (sign of weakness) on key liquidity level, so there is a higher probability to see price lower at least on opposite level (marked lower).
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
UKOIL/Brent Crude Oil Energies Market Heist Plan on Bearish SideOla! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑💰
This is our master plan to Heist UKOIL / Brent Crude Oil Energies Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Near the Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich 💰.
Entry 👇 📉: Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Sell Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe, Recent / Nearest High Point entry should be in pullback.
Stop Loss 🛑: Recent Swing High using 1H timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Short side, If you've got a money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
Crude Oil Compresses Near Key Support
Brent crude oil has been consolidating near a critical support level for more than two months. With the stage set for a decisive breakout, let’s explore what’s driving the market and where we could go from here.
A Fragile Geopolitical Backdrop
Although a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was agreed last Wednesday, the environment in the middle east is far from stable. Reports of Israeli strikes on Lebanese targets earlier this week have kept tensions simmering.
However, the broader supply picture has eased. The International Energy Agency predicts an excess supply of over 1 million barrels per day in 2025, which has weighed on prices. On Friday, Brent crude closed at $72.94, and WTI at $68, with both benchmarks down over 3% for the week. This bearish tone has been reinforced by concerns over weaker demand prospects, as higher US interest rates appear less likely to be cut this month.
Adding to the mix, President-elect Donald Trump’s recent threats of 100% tariffs on BRICS nations have strengthened the US dollar. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for other currencies, further pressuring demand.
The Technical Picture: A Triangle of Tension
On the weekly chart, oil prices have anchored around the March 2023 swing lows, which represent a key inflection point. September’s brief dip below this level saw buyers step in, and since then, the market has been stuck in a prolonged consolidation phase.
Brent Crude Weekly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Shifting to the daily timeframe, the consolidation takes the form of a triangle pattern. Prices are effectively being ‘funnelled’ within an ever-tightening range, marked by lower swing highs and higher swing lows. Volume has steadily declined, which signals that the market is under compression and a significant breakout could be on the horizon.
Brent Crude Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
With this compression nearing its climax, two scenarios are in play:
1. A breakout to the upside: A long-bodied candle closing near its highs, accompanied by strong volume, would suggest the bulls are back in control. News of OPEC+ extending production cuts or easing dollar strength could catalyse this move.
2. A breakdown to the downside: A close below support would snap the current consolidation and likely trigger accelerated selling, particularly if concerns about oversupply in 2025 gain traction.
All Eyes on OPEC+
The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on 5th December will play a pivotal role in determining the market’s next direction. The group is expected to discuss delaying a planned production increase originally scheduled for January. An indefinite delay could ease some of the downward pressure on prices, providing a tailwind for any bullish breakout.
For now, the market is in wait-and-see mode, compressing further as traders position themselves for the outcome of this critical meeting. All eyes are on OPEC+ as the oil market braces for its next big move.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Brent Crude Oil Wave Analysis 3 December 2024
- Brent crude oil rising inside daily Triangle
- Likely to rise to resistance level 74.00
Brent crude oil recently reversed up from the support trendline of the daily Triangle inside which the price has been moving since September.
The upward reversal from this support trendline stopped the earlier impulse waves iii and 3 – which belong to the medium-term downward impulse sequence (3) from the start of October.
Brent crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 74.00, coinciding with the resistance trendline of this Triangle.
Brent Outlook: Key Levels for Downside or Bullish ReversalHello,
BLACKBULL:BRENT is likely to face more downside if the 1D PP acts as resistance again. In that case, the price may revisit previous lows at 70.754 and 68.675. A break and sustained move below these levels will confirm further downside. However, a break and hold above the 1M PP could signal a bullish reversal and open the door to further upside.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Brent: descending triangle signals potential 8.47% slideBrent crude oil prices are stuck in a large descending triangle, with a breach to $70.31, the lows from October and September, suggesting a decline to $64.27 per barrel, representing a potential slide of 8.47%. However, if the price breaks above the trendline side of the pattern and surpasses the November 25 high of $74.83, it could rise to $79.91.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
UKOIL - long
weekly candle okay. still below 20 and PP but we have had strong PA as price got absorbed around POC and closed with high vol and delta.
orgin - looking for buyers to step in as price pulls back to VA. I could short it at the open with SL over POC close (needs to close above POC) thereby fading the long move. we'll see on LTF
Brent Crude Oil Consolidates Ahead of OPEC+ MeetingBrent Crude Oil Consolidates Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting
The ATR indicator on the XBR/USD chart has dropped to its lowest level since early autumn, signalling reduced volatility. This likely reflects market participants awaiting announcements from the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for 1 December.
Overall, Brent crude prices remain under pressure due to:
→ reduced tensions in the Middle East, with reports this week confirming a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah;
→ news of rising crude oil inventories in the U.S.;
→ forecasts of slower oil demand growth from China in 2025.
On the other hand, the $70-71 range serves as strong support, marked by key lows from 2023-2024.
From a technical analysis perspective, the fluctuations in XBR/USD oil prices are forming a pattern resembling Andrew’s Pitchfork, although it is not an exact match.
Key observations:
→ The central line has shifted from support to resistance, as indicated by the arrows.
→ The lower line is preventing the price from breaking the year's lows.
If the OPEC+ meeting brings no surprises, the period of reduced volatility may persist, with Brent crude prices fluctuating within this range.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Brent - oil waiting for regional stability!Brent oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, we will look for positions to buy oil. In case of a valid failure of this channel, we can witness the continuation of the downward trend.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire. He expressed gratitude to French President Emmanuel Macron and emphasized that Israel did not initiate this war, nor were the Lebanese people seeking conflict. Biden stated that Israel has destroyed Hezbollah’s infrastructure in southern Lebanon but stressed that lasting security cannot be achieved solely on the battlefield. The ceasefire is set to take effect at 4 a.m. local time tomorrow, aiming for a permanent end to hostilities.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicted that Brent crude oil prices face short-term risks that could push them to around $80 per barrel in the first half of 2025, assuming Iranian oil supply drops by 1 million barrels per day due to stricter sanctions. In contrast, the bank expects medium-term risks to Brent prices to tilt downward due to high spare capacity in the market. Goldman Sachs also estimated that Brent crude prices could fall below $60 per barrel in 2026 if a 10% tariff is imposed or OPEC increases its supply in 2025.
Separately, Bloomberg reported that China’s small and private refineries are paying higher prices for Iranian oil due to reduced shipments and fewer offers. These refineries have been purchasing light Iranian crude for December delivery at smaller discounts compared to ICE Brent benchmarks. Limited shipping availability and delays have constrained Iran’s oil exports to China.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, during a meeting with OPEC’s Secretary-General, stated that Russia intends to strengthen its cooperation with OPEC. Novak highlighted that the energy market remains under significant pressure, with price volatility being one of the key challenges. He stressed the importance of closer collaboration between Russia and OPEC to address these issues, asserting that joint efforts can contribute to greater stability in the energy market. Novak also revealed that Russia is preparing to lift its gasoline export ban, with the necessary documentation expected to be finalized soon, although no exact timeline was provided. He pointed to the market’s balance achieved through OPEC+ actions and quota implementation, emphasizing the importance of continued measures to ensure stability.
According to the latest JODI data, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports increased by 80,000 barrels per day in September, reaching 5.75 million barrels per day, the highest level in three months. This rise in exports likely resulted from reduced direct crude oil consumption for power generation as the country’s hottest months came to an end. JODI data showed that direct crude burning fell by 296,000 barrels per day in September, reaching approximately 518,000 barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, saw a slight decrease in oil production in September, down by 17,000 barrels per day to 8.98 million barrels per day. Refinery throughput in the country reached 2.756 million barrels per day in September, the highest in four months and 35,000 barrels per day higher than in August.
This production level aligns with Saudi Arabia’s summer commitment to maintain output at “around 9 million barrels per day,” consistent with OPEC+ cuts and a voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners have postponed their planned production increases from December 2024 to January 2025. The group now plans to begin increasing supply in January, initially by 180,000 barrels per day for the first month.
Saudi Arabia is expected to deliver less crude oil to China, the world’s largest oil importer, in December. Trade sources told Reuters last week that weak demand in China has prompted Saudi Arabia to reduce its shipments to the country.
With OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, where to next for crude?Despite the crosscurrents of tariffs, ceasefire agreements and an impending OPEC+ meeting, a certain calm descends over the crude markets and stability is the order of play. The Brent futures price looks quietly content in a $75 to $71 range, and I see these levels as defining the near-term directional risk - where a breakout of either level would offer some degree of confidence of price kicking on further from that point. For now, the crude market has found a fair value, and the aggregation of all flows and positioning seems happy with pricing with the collective waiting for new news to present itself which could lead to a new trend or higher volatility.
We’ve seen limited interest in moving either WTI or Brent futures positioning around the post-ceasefire agreement and tariff news, and both factors are now largely in the price. Subsequently, energy traders will be looking more intently towards the weekend OPEC+ meeting and starting to review scenarios and probabilities.
Of course, many of the big US-based oil traders will be taking an extended break for Thanksgiving. However, orders may need to be left with others on the desk as any pre-positioning ahead of the OPEC+ meeting will still need to be put in place before Friday's futures markets close, as the prospect of gapping risk in crude on the Monday open is still a risk that needs to be managed. That said, the calmness seen in the price action and lack of trending conditions suggests oil traders see the OPEC+ meeting as a lower volatility affair, with the group likely to swing to an almost unanimous call to hold off from unwinding its 2.2 mbd voluntary cuts until Q125 – with crude at $73 and the Trump/Bessent combo exploring another 3 mbpd of US output, this may be the prudent thing to do for now.
BRENT Faces Resistance at 1M PP, Downside LoomsHello,
BLACKBULL:BRENT has encountered resistance once again at the 1M pivot point (PP) and is now moving to test the 1W PP. Previous low points at 68.675 and 70.720 have historically provided support, but further downside appears likely unless the price can establish strong support above the 1M PP in the future. In recent weeks, there were attempts to shift toward a more bullish outlook, but these efforts have been partially thwarted by the 1M PP acting as a persistent barrier. Patience is key, as upside potential remains on the horizon!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
OIL_BRENT 1H Reversal Points;
Brent is expected to form either a high or a low around the following dates.
How i/to use it correctly;
Identify the trend correctly before the reversal date.
Better if there is a good possibility of a high or low.
Wait for a reversal candle or rejection that is good enough.
Enter, putting your SL above or below the candle.
Double your SL.
When to get out is optional but do secure yourself.
Use the R System for Forex Trading.
This technique is still under development. I am not responsible for any outcomes or consequences that may arise from following these instructions. Proceed at your own discretion.
