Crude is all set for $70 rally.The 1 hour candle looks closing above the 21 EMA, which will make the crude to take a u turn from this level to $70 positionally.
BCOUSD trade ideas
Brent oil prices look ready to roll-over, here is whyOil is setting up for a potential drop of over 4% if key support breaks, with a deeper move possible if global weakness continues. This video shows you the exact levels to watch and how to trade the move using technical and macro analysis.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
UPDATE - Brent Crude missed Take profit - Time to panic?Well with trading it's never time to panic.
If you're panicking it means:
1. Your ego is too high and you're predicting rather than reacting
2. Risking too much
3. Attaching emotions to machine
Even if it hits the stop, that's the name of the game - TRADING>
However, the game is still in play. The price continues to make lower highs and it looks up it's going up to test the recent downward trend line.
Break above, and it will be more likely to not play out.
But NO panic! Please we're adults and taking on this as a business venture not a lotto.
M Formation
Price<20 and 200
Target $56.13
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XBRUSD is moving within the 58.80 - 62.80 range👀 Possible scenario:
Oil prices rose nearly 1% on May 8, lifted by optimism ahead of U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for May 10 in Switzerland, where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with China's top economic official to address trade tensions. The potential easing of the dispute between the world’s largest oil consumers could support demand. However, gains were capped by concerns over inflation and unemployment after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged.
U.S. crude inventories fell by 2 million barrels, and production slightly declined, offering additional price support. Still, Citi Research lowered its 3-month Brent forecast to $55, citing ongoing supply risks and uncertainty around a possible U.S.-Iran nuclear deal.
✅ Support and Resistance Levels
Now, the support level is located at 58.80.
Resistance level is now located at 62.80 .
BRENT Crude INTRADAY oversold bounce capped at 6533The price sentiment for Brent Crude Oil remains bearish, in line with the prevailing downtrend. Recent price action shows an oversold rally, which has stalled near a previous consolidation zone around 6533 — a key resistance level.
Key Resistance Level: 6533
This level marks a previous intraday consolidation area and could act as a ceiling for the current rally.
Bearish Scenario:
If WTI fails to break above 6533, it may resume its decline toward:
6207 (near-term support)
6080
5885 (longer-term support)
Bullish Scenario:
A confirmed breakout and daily close above 6533 would shift momentum and open upside targets at:
6707
6860
7040
Conclusion:
WTI Crude Oil remains under bearish pressure unless it breaks and closes above 6533. Traders should monitor this level closely for signs of rejection or breakout.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
"UK Oil Spot/ BRENT" Energy Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "UK Oil Spot/ BRENT" Energy Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk MA Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (68.500) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
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📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 4H timeframe (64.000) Day/Scalping trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 72.200
💰💵💴💸"UK Oil Spot/ BRENT" Energy Market Heist Plan (Day / Scalping Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness🐂.., driven by several key factors.☝☝☝
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⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
"UK Oil Spot/ BRENT" Energy Market Heist Plan (Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "UK Oil Spot/ BRENT" Energy Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk GREEN Zone. It's a Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most nearest or swing, low or high level for Pullback Entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📌Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing High or Low level Using the 4H timeframe (67.500) Day/Swing trade basis.
📌SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 60.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
💰💵💸"UK Oil Spot/ BRENT" Energy Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bearish trend.., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇
📰🗞️Read the Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT Report, Seasonal Factors, Intermarket Analysis, Inventory and Storage Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Future trend predict.
Before start the heist plan read it. go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗🌎🌏🗺
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
Brent under pressure: A rebound may be comingIn 2025, oil prices have come under significant pressure, falling more than 21% since the beginning of the year — from $75 to around $59 per barrel of #BRENT. This decline was driven by increased production from OPEC+ countries, weak global demand (particularly in Asia), heightened economic risks due to trade disputes, and rising output from non-OPEC producers such as the U.S. and Brazil. Together, these factors created an oversupply amid stagnant demand.
Currently, the oil market continues to be shaped by a range of influencing factors. While accurately predicting prices remains a challenge, several key drivers are likely to steer oil price movements in the near term. Here’s a look at the main bullish and bearish factors:
• Geopolitical tensions (Bullish driver): Ongoing or emerging conflicts in key oil-producing regions (such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe) raise concerns about potential supply disruptions. Even without actual disruptions, the perceived risk leads traders to factor in a “risk premium,” pushing prices higher. Any escalation could trigger sharp price spikes.
• OPEC+ policy (Bullish/neutral driver): The alliance’s production decisions remain a major influence on supply. If OPEC+ maintains or tightens its current output cuts to balance the market or target price levels, this will support price growth or at least stability. Conversely, quota breaches or output increases would weigh on prices.
• Global economic outlook (Bearish/bullish driver): The trajectory of global economic growth directly affects oil demand. Signs of GDP slowdowns in major economies (U.S., China, EU) tend to weaken demand and drag prices lower. On the other hand, if economic growth proves more resilient than expected, it would support oil demand and prices. Uncertainty over the growth path of many countries persists in 2025.
• Non-OPEC+ output growth (Bearish driver): Countries outside of the OPEC+ alliance — including the U.S. (shale), Brazil, Guyana, and Canada — continue expanding their production. Significant output increases from these nations could offset OPEC+ efforts and lead to market oversupply, applying downward pressure on prices.
• Energy transition and underinvestment (Medium-term bullish driver): ESG pressures, the global shift toward renewables, and uncertainty around long-term fossil fuel demand have led to underinvestment in new oil exploration and development. If existing capacity declines faster than new projects come online, a structural supply deficit could emerge, supporting higher prices even amid the energy transition.
FreshForex analysts believe that, given ongoing geopolitical risks, strict OPEC+ policies, and underinvestment in production, the oil market is nearing a potential upward reversal. A modest uptick in demand or increased tension could be enough to put oil back on a growth trajectory.
Brent Crude Oil Wave Analysis – 5 May 2025
- Brent crude oil reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 62.00
Brent crude oil recently reversed up sharply from the support zone between the key support level 58.60 (which stopped the previous sharp impulse wave i) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer, which highlights the strength of this support area.
Brent crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 62.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from April).
Brent Crude Opens with a Bearish GapBrent Crude Opens with a Bearish Gap
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Brent crude oil opened this Monday morning around $59.00, forming a bearish gap relative to Friday’s closing price of approximately $61.40.
The current Brent crude oil price is near the yearly low reached about a month ago, following the announcement of Trump’s tariffs, which turned out to be significantly higher than expected.
Why Is Oil Falling?
As we noted on 30 April, market participants are closely watching news related to OPEC+. Over the weekend, during an online meeting (according to media reports), the following developments occurred:
→ It was stated that the current oil market is fundamentally healthy;
→ A decision was made to accelerate the pace of oil production increases.
According to the plan, output will rise by 411,000 barrels per day — with some believing this move is partly due to certain OPEC+ countries previously failing to adhere to production quotas.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
Oil price movements in 2025 form a descending channel (shown in red), with progressively lower highs and lows indicating bearish sentiment.
Although bulls may hope that the lower boundary of the channel could act as support, bears are showing signs of dominance (as indicated by arrows):
→ the median line of the channel previously acted as resistance;
→ now, similar behaviour is seen at line Q, which divides the lower half of the channel into two quarters;
→ the Rounding Top pattern also signals strong selling pressure.
Fundamentally, oil prices are supported by China’s willingness to negotiate tariffs with the US. However, considering the OPEC+ decision and ongoing fears of a global recession, the current downward channel on the Brent crude oil price chart is unlikely to lose relevance any time soon.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Mastering oil trading with multiple timeframe analysisThis video shows how multiple timeframe analysis helps improve entries, manage risk, and avoid false breakouts when trading brent crude oil.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Oil in FreefallOil keeps moving lower without pause. There’s not a single valid reason to buy, except for “it’s already very cheap”—but that argument leads to poverty!
Where this will end—no one knows. Let the asset settle, and the chart will tell us when it's time to buy.
📝 Trading plan:
Wait for the downward move to end. It’s too late to short, and too early to go long.
Brent Crude INTRADAY bearish below 6533The price sentiment for Brent Crude Oil remains bearish, in line with the prevailing downtrend. Recent price action shows an oversold rally, which has stalled near a previous consolidation zone around 6533 — a key resistance level.
Key Resistance Level: 6533
This level marks a previous intraday consolidation area and could act as a ceiling for the current rally.
Bearish Scenario:
If WTI fails to break above 6533, it may resume its decline toward:
6207 (near-term support)
6080
5885 (longer-term support)
Bullish Scenario:
A confirmed breakout and daily close above 6533 would shift momentum and open upside targets at:
6707
6860
7040
Conclusion:
WTI Crude Oil remains under bearish pressure unless it breaks and closes above 6533. Traders should monitor this level closely for signs of rejection or breakout.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Brent Oil Update: Correction Completion and Growth OutlookUpdated the medium-term structure on Brent oil TVC:UKOIL FX:UKOIL ICEEUR:BRN1! NYMEX:CY1!
Currently, I see several scenarios for market development:
🥇 Base Scenario:
Correction unfolds as an A-B-C pattern, where wave C took the form of an Expanding Ending Diagonal (eED).
Although the diagonal does not look perfect geometrically, in terms of Fibonacci ratios, it is almost textbook:
Each subsequent wave is 1.618 the length of the previous one.
The price tested the monthly imbalance and retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level, increasing the probability of correction completion.
Thus, I believe the correction may have already completed, and we might soon see recovery and growth in oil prices. However, a minor retest or small deviation of the lows remains acceptable within this scenario.
🥈 Scenario 2:
Alternative wave count in the form of a Double Zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y).
Here too, the correction may have ended or may complete with a minor new low around the key support zone.
🥉 Other Alternatives:
Wave A — impulse, B — triangle, C — contracting Ending Diagonal (cED).
Alternatively, another expanding diagonal (eED) could finalize the downtrend.
⚡ Fundamental Drivers Supporting Oil Recovery:
Expected monetary policy easing in the U.S.:
Potential rate cuts and M2 money supply growth should boost demand for commodities.
Stimulus programs expected in China and India:
Industrial demand recovery from the world's largest consumers. Global demand remains resilient: Asia, emerging markets, and India's growing economy continue to support oil consumption, despite local slowdowns in Europe and the U.S.
Ongoing geopolitical risks:
Continued tensions in the Middle East and risks of supply disruptions could support oil prices.
OPEC+ production cuts:
The extended supply cuts maintain a structural shortage in the market.
Historically low commercial oil inventories in the U.S. and Europe:
A resurgence in demand could accelerate price recovery.
📍 Key Levels:
Support zone: 58–65 USD.
Maximum acceptable downside across all scenarios: 50–55 USD — I do not expect a dramatic drop below this zone.
🛡 Important:
The current phase is a transition: either the confirmation of a bottom formation or a final controlled retest of the 58–65 zone before recovery.
In all scenarios, I expect Brent oil to have either completed or to be completing its correction.
The base growth scenario remains a priority, watching closely for confirmation signals in the 58–65 USD range.
Potential Decline of Brent Oil Price to $50 in the Near Future.Brief Overview of Events and News Explaining the Potential Decline of Brent Oil Price to $50 in the Near Future.
➖ Increased OPEC+ Production:
On April 3, 2025, eight OPEC+ countries unexpectedly decided to accelerate production increases, adding 411,000 barrels per day starting in May. This decision triggered a price drop, with Brent falling 6.42% to $70.14 per barrel at the time.
Analysts like Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects noted that this move pressures “lagging” countries to meet quotas, but the market interpreted it as an oversupply signal.
Source: OilPrice.com, "OPEC+ to Raise Oil Production by More Than Expected in May," April 3, 2025 (oilprice.com)
➖ Decreased Demand Due to Economic Challenges:
On April 14, 2025, OPEC revised its 2025 oil demand growth forecast downward by 150,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, citing trade tensions and weak economic indicators. JPMorgan also raised the likelihood of a global recession to 60%.
Source: OilPrice.com, "OPEC Lowers 2025 Oil Demand Forecast on Trade Tensions," April 14, 2025 (oilprice.com)
➖ Trade Tariffs and Global Instability:
On April 3, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on trading partners, heightening recession fears. Fitch Ratings described this as the highest level of U.S. import tariffs since 1910. Brent dropped 4% immediately following the announcement.
Source: OilPrice.com, "OPEC+ to Raise Oil Production by More Than Expected in May," April 3, 2025 (oilprice.com)
➖ Geopolitical De-escalation:
On April 25, 2025, reports emerged of progress in U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine, as well as Iran’s openness to nuclear negotiations. This reduces geopolitical risks and increases the likelihood of higher oil supply on the market.
Source: OilPrice.com, "Oil Set For Weekly Loss on OPEC+ Supply Rumors," April 25, 2025 (oilprice.com)
Technical Analysis Section:
The monthly chart shows similarities between the 1999–2002 and 2020–2025 periods: an initial impulse, followed by a correction, and then a 6-year upward trend.
Nearest entry point targets at the 161.8% Fibonacci level:
• $52,46
• $49,06
• $46,50
Growth Potential
Medium-term:
• $138,00
Long-term:
• $500,00
Once the price of oil UKOIL reaches $52.46, a review for the entry point will be prepared.
Charts:
•
•
XBRUSD is moving within the 62.55 - 67.70 range👀 Possible scenario:
Oil prices saw a slight rebound on April 24 after a 2% drop, with Brent crude rising 0.8% to $66.65 and West Texas Intermediate up 0.88% to $62.82. Investors weighed potential OPEC+ output increases against mixed U.S.-China trade signals and ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.
OPEC+ might accelerate output hikes in June, but internal disagreements, like Kazakhstan prioritizing national interests, added uncertainty. Analysts warned that the U.S.-China trade war could halve China's oil demand growth, while U.S.-Iran talks raised the possibility of easing sanctions on Iranian oil, which could pressure prices further.
✅Support and Resistance Levels
Now, the support level is located at 62.55.
Resistance levels are now located at 67.70.
