COSTCL trade ideas
Williams R% indicator on COSTThe Williams R% makes the read of the trend line changes easier. This chart for example, demonstrates that each time the indicator goes over the top in whichever direction it follows, a change of the trend line may occur.
Here, in point A goes from a upper trend followed by the indicator to a down trend immediately the R% shows that the trend changes is happening. The moment the R% shows that the trend is followed then we can place our order.
COSTCO 1D ASCENDING TRIANGLE LONG TRADEAscending Triangles, Triangles, Descending Triangle and Ranges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Triangles and ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Ascending and descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
COST headed up from channel bottomCOST will likely reach $315-$320 within the next two weeks. I believe this is the bottom before a swift run up to $312.5+ within the next 13 days. If you want to maximize profit from this move, I recommend buying the $310 calls expiring November 1st for around $0.50. (where they are right now)
Costco investors starting to ring the register. Caution. High flyer for 2019 NASDAQ:COST enters earnings tomorrows earnings pre-market, with huge expectations that it must fulfill considering the crowed trade that is has become.
The main danger for Costco is that if the market begins to rotate back towards the Technology sector, Costco will be a source of capital to do so.
If the selling persists post earnings a very healthy retrace tot he $230 level is more than possible.
Average analysts price target $293
Average analysts recommendation OVERWEIGHT
Short interest 1.07%
P/E ratio 34 (CONSIDERED HIGH IN RETAIL)
Company profile
Costco Wholesale Corp. engages in the operation of membership warehouses. Its product categories include groceries, candy, appliances, television and media, automotive supplies, tires, toys, hardware, sporting goods, jewelry, watches, cameras, books, housewares, apparel, health and beauty aids, tobacco, furniture, office supplies, and office equipment. It operates through the following segments: Unites States Operations, Canadian Operations, and Other International Operations. The company was founded by James D. Sinegal and Jeffrey H. Brotman in 1983 and is headquartered in Issaquah, WA.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COST, GDXJ, IWM, CL1!EARNINGS:
COST (71/29) announces earnings this week, along with THO (89/66), PEP (32/21), and LEN (26/35).
Pictured here is a directionally neutral iron condor camped out around the 14 delta strikes for the shorties paying 1.04 (.52 at 50 max) with break evens at 253.96/316.04, which are slightly wide of one standard deviation. The correspondent short strangle at 215/315 pays 3.74, although you can certainly tighten that up to get a surgical 2x expected move setup at the 260/310, which is paying 5.15.
They're scheduled to announce on Thursday, October 3rd after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the New York session on Thursday.
Although THO has more ideal volatility metrics, you'll face problems there with 5-wides in the November cycle, and PEP metrics are too low for my tastes to bother with, with 30-day background at 21.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
GDX (74/34)
SLV (73/27)
GDXJ (70/38)
GLD (61/15)
TLT (58/15)
XOP (44/41)
I don't know if there's every been a longer period of time in which precious metals have been at the top of the premium stack for such an extended period of time.
GDXJ has the most ideal metrics, with rank >50%, and implied >35%: the November 15th 34/43 delta neutral short strange with the short strikes at the 20 delta's paying 1.22 at the mid.
If you're tired of playing gold, consider a play in XOP: the November 15th 22/23* almost a short straddle short strangle, is paying 2.08.
* -- XOP finished Friday's trading session at 22.51, which is why I'd split the straddle a tad here in the absence of a directional assumption.
BROAD MARKET
Last week saw a bump in volatility, but it still isn't great short to medium term to sell premium in broad market exchange-traded funds.
Running the 10% short straddle test on the highest implied volatility broad market exchange-traded fund -- IWM, shows that you'd have to go all the way out to February (145 days 'til expiration) to get the at-the-money short straddle to pay greater than 10% of the value of the stock; the IWM February 21st 151 short straddle is paying 15.11 versus Friday's closing price of 151.16. Not everyone likes to go out that far out in time, since it takes longer for those types of plays to come in, but would consider something in that cycle if I don't want to play earnings, I have substantial buying power sitting idle, or I'm inclined to a slower, less attention-intensive type of trading.
The IWM February 21st 1 x 2 ratio'd 130/174 short strangle is paying 3.03/1.51 at 50% max, with 1x contracts at the 15 delta on the put side, 2x contracts at the 7 delta on the call side to accommodate skew, with the February 21st 120/130/2x172/2x175 "double double" paying 1.74. Setting up a double double in that expiry is a bit pesky at the moment, since the put side is limited to 5-wides.
FUTURES
/ZF (75/4)
/SI (73/25)
/6B (61/11)
/GC (61/14)
/UB (58/5)
/ZB (58/10)
/ZS (51/22)
/ZN (44/5)
/CL (37/40)
Friskiness in precious metals (/SI, /GC), friskiness in treasuries (/ZF, /UB, /ZB, /ZN), with some volatility left in beans (/ZS) and oil (/CL).
10% Short Straddle Tests:
/SI January 28th 17.5 short straddle: 1.93 versus 17.59.
/CL December 16th 56 short straddle: 7.10 versus 56.18.
I've got /CL setups on in both the November and December cycles, but this implies that it may not be worth initiating premium selling in /CL in the November cycle.
Honorable Mention: /NG (25/44). I pulled the trigger on a UNG play at seasonal lows, after which /NG popped temporarily. It has receded back from mid-September highs around 2.70 and closed Friday around 2.40. Ideally, I'd want in at 2016 lows (<1.75), but that may be asking for a bit much ... .
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES
VIX ended the week above 17. While an exciting development for short volatility traders, I would keep my pistol in my holster for the time being, waiting for VIX pops to greater than 20 to start legging into bearish assumption positions in either the VIX itself or derivative products like VXX or UVXY.
Costco Long - trend tunnel low pointTaking Costco to the long side. Got to know about the downgrade from Cramer's Mad Money, so thought to do technical analysis.
Cramer suggested buy at this level and technicals are supporting partially.
I prefer to see divergence in RSI but thats not there. So taking this trade by giving more weightage to fundamentals shared by analysts as Costco is least affected by Trade war of all retailers and usually in economic slowdown Costco do well good.
MACD is crossing above red
Target price is 300
Entry price is 288
Risk:Reward is 1:2
