goldIF gold loses 2606, and bearish PA holds below, we could possible counting down towards 2580, 2550, daily looking prety bearish following 12/19 shooting star rejecting 12/18 open been short since 2609
XAUUSD1! trade ideas
A sad week for GOLD, a happy week to tradeBehold gold, approaching the lowest support from gold's current range, we are eyeing to long a quick 16 win to loss ratio of this asset. This bounce is expected to occur within a matter of hours hoping to take profit at the target or just trail the stop loss while moving up.
We are currently on a great support to bounce off off but I believe the lowest for the week is not yet printed.
If we go up from here, i will be looking for a short setup
But for now, I will be waiting for this level.
2024-12-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bullish but only until 2740ish. Bulls broke strongly above 2700 and the triangle is dead. Next stop is previous resistance around 2743. I do expect a pullback first, since the channel is obvious. Chart shows the preferred way for me.
comment : Bulls are in control again. My chart is very clear, so I won’t try to make stuff up in here. 2678 should not be broken again and next target for the bulls is 2743ish. I expect a pullback down to 2710 or even 2700 before another leg up. If we break above the current channel, we will likely print 2800 before end of Friday.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2680 - 2745 (above that is 2800 next)
bull case: Chart tells the whole story for the bulls. Don’t make this more complicated as it is. Any pullback below 2710 is a decent buy with stop 2678.
Invalidation is below 2678.
bear case: Bears gave up once they could not reverse the market below 2670 again after y close and the early test down to 2683 in the EU session.
Invalidation is above 2745.
short term: Bullish. Look for longs near the lower channel line or 1h 20ema.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom near 2680.
2024-12-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bearish. I doubt we can close the week below 2560 but we now have a giant bear gap between 2615 - 2652. No interested in selling this tomorrow but if we close the week below 2600, the bull trend is gone for good.
comment : No matter what you think China is doing with Gold, this market is going down. We are 200 points below the ath and the bull trend is most likely over. If we close this week below 2630, it would be the second close below the weekly 20ema since January.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2590 - 2640
bull case : Bulls are in pain. Every rip is sold hard and we have a clear bear channel. Hard to come up with arguments for the bulls right now. Best they can hope for is to stay above 2600 but this market is as weak as it gets since last week.
Invalidation is below 2595.
bear case: 2566 is their main target and I am not confident they can get it tomorrow. I expect more chop near 2600 over the next 2 weeks but for Q1 I have wet dreams about 2400. If you want to trade this, look for shorts near the 3h or 4h 20ema and longs only if 2600 continues to be bigger support.
Invalidation is above 2642.
short term: Neutral. I don’t expect this to go into the weekend far from 2600 but for next 2 weeks I have 2 measured move targets below 2570.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-19: No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. Likely close around 2600.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: selling near the 4h 20ema or bear trend line.
All that glitters???There are two battles over Gold at the moment,
1. The BRIB Nations supporting Gold with physical purchases with a view to creating their gold backed currency as an alternative to the US Dollar.
2. The incoming Trump administration are agressively countering this move by supporting digital alternatives backed by blockchain infrastructure,backed by the SWIFT system,the weaponised petrodollar and the global bond markets.Control is the name of the game,
Technically Gold is still holding within a wide 4 hour channel but resistance is now stacking overhead as per the attached chart.
Gold Futures Breakdown: Bearish Momentum ConfirmedGold Futures on the 30-minute chart have confirmed a strong bearish trend after breaking below key support levels. The price failed to hold near the Zone Identifier levels (2,655.9) and experienced a sharp decline following two consecutive sell signals. The breakdown below the moving average further strengthens the bearish outlook. Traders could look for short opportunities on pullbacks, targeting the next support zone near 2,600 while managing risk with stops above 2,660. This setup highlights significant selling momentum and a potential continuation of the downtrend.
Gold - The Next Bitcoin?The markets are beyond stretched—they’re squeezed all the way to the moon.
Today, I heard some major news: Big Money has already left the party, and others are following suit. This is HUGE. It’s also that classic moment when the barber starts sharing his “secret” stock tips.
Now, if you pair this with my recent Bitcoin post—where I outlined how a tulip-like crash could unfold—you’ll see we’re staring at the perfect recipe for a stock market KABOOM.
So, where will traders, investors, and even grandmas rush to when this unwinds? My bet: Gold. Where else? This is when the Gold Rocket ignites, replacing Bitcoin and the MAG7, creating yet another bubble—a glittering tulip 5.0. And just like before, it’ll burst when the fuel runs out.
Buckle up! 🚀
Head and Shoulder Pattern indicates Gold fall 2600$ Short entry between 2650-2670
Profit Taking zones are 2630-2600-2575
Max risk 5% of equity with averaging strategy in zone of 2650-2670
Bearish Head and Shoulder Pattern indicates more deep fall in Gold towards $2630-$2600-$2575
My chart analysis on gold futures contract
Neck Line is retesting again and again which will be attraction for buyers but be cautious.
Head and Shoulders Top (Bearish Reversal)
This pattern occurs after an uptrend and signals that the price is likely to reverse and head downward. It consists of three main peaks:
Structure
Left Shoulder:
The price rises to a peak and then declines.
Head:
The price rises again to a higher peak (the "head") and then declines.
Right Shoulder:
The price rises to a lower peak, roughly equal to the Left Shoulder, and then falls back down.
Neckline:
The line connecting the lows between the shoulders and the head. It acts as support.
A break below the neckline confirms the pattern.
Steps to Identify
Uptrend before the formation.
Three peaks: Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder.
The neckline acts as the key support level.
When the price breaks the neckline downward, it signals a bearish reversal.
How Traders Use It
Once the neckline is broken, traders expect the price to fall further.
The expected drop is calculated as:
Distance from the Head to the Neckline = Expected move downward.
Gold Positioned for Further Gains Amidst Economic UncertaintyRecent Performance: Gold has seen substantial fluctuations in recent months,
reaching record highs while also facing notable resistances. With a year-to-
date appreciation exceeding 30%, gold has outperformed other major asset
classes, benefitting from a flight to safety as inflation rates continue to
rise and geopolitical tensions create uncertainty.
- Key Insights: Investors should maintain a close watch on gold as it reveals
robust demand against a backdrop of inflation and currency devaluation. The
support levels between 2400 and 2500 provide a buffer against potential
downturns, while the bullish sentiment surrounding central bank activity
underlines gold's status as a critical component of investment strategies.
- Expert Analysis: Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with analysts
divided. Bullish views on gold stand strong, yet some concern exists
regarding possible bearish trends in silver. Experts from firms such as
Goldman Sachs warn of high price multiples in the equity markets, cautioning
investors of a potential downturn while underscoring gold's attractiveness
amid economic fluctuations and interest rate discussions.
- Price Targets: Based on professional trading insights, the following targets
and stop levels are set for the coming week:
- Next week targets: T1 is 2750, T2 is 2835
- Stop levels: S1 is 2600, S2 is 2550
- News Impact: Recent inflation trends have introduced short-term volatility in
gold prices, yet central bank strategies continue to support a bullish
outlook for gold in the long term. The anticipation of interest rate cuts
will be pivotal, increasing gold's allure in investment portfolios,
particularly as it maintains strength against currency fluctuations and
challenges in other asset classes.
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral. Very strong rally Mo-Wednesday just to almost completely reverse and close the week 11 points above the open. Rallies getting stuffed hard now and bulls will only try so many times until we test lower prices. 2630 is the price for bears to break and bulls need anything above 2760 again. It’s much more likely that we close 2024 around 2700. Market has also formed another triangle on the daily/weekly chart, so don’t expect a trending market for the next 3 weeks.
Quote from last week:
comment : I won’t waste much time with this market this week. Clear triangle and market is in total balance around 2660. Wait for the breakout or play the range. My best guess would be that we both see 2600 and 2700 in the next 3 weeks.
comment : Quick and dirty again. Bulls had the perfect setup for 2800+ but blew it. Big bois selling the rips and market formed another triangle. I doubt it will go anywhere in the next 3 weeks. Likely yearly close around 2700. Play the range or don’t trade this at all.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2620 - 2750
bull case: Bulls blew it. The setup from last weeks Friday was perfect and Mo-We we had amazing follow through. Thursday was a huge bear surprise and bulls just gave up on the rally. They got stuffed big time now two times over the past 5 weeks, which makes me believe that there are probably not many more bulls who want to try a third time. Sideways is the most likely and reasonable thing to expect here.
Invalidation is below 2630.
bear case: Strong bears selling the rips but I don’t expect them to really try and push this below 2600 again. 2630 was huge support the past weeks and even if they print below, they would still have to break through the big bull trend line from August.
Invalidation is above 2763.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral inside given range.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2659 and now we are at 2675. Market went much higher than expected but nowhere on the week, so outlook was ok.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-07 : No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. Likely close around 2700.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
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In this video, I share with you
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Disclaimer: Trading is risky please learn
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Also use a simulation trading account
before you trade with real money
Gold (MGCG2025): A Technical Perspective and Market OutlookGold prices have seen a slight decline today, with spot gold trading down 0.3% at $2,672.25 per ounce and U.S. gold futures dropping 0.6% to $2,692.70 as of 0914 GMT. Despite the dip, gold remains on track for a weekly gain, fueled by anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.
The Fed is widely expected to deliver its third rate cut of the year, a move that has underpinned bullion’s appeal. Notably, gold reached a five-week high in the previous session, spurring profit-taking and subsequent price adjustments.
Weekly Overview
Gold has risen over 1% this week, demonstrating resilience amidst market uncertainties. The five-week high indicates strong bullish sentiment, but the recent pullback suggests a healthy correction before the market determines its next direction.
Technical Analysis: 1-Hour Time Frame
On the 1-hour chart, gold appears to be gravitating toward a supply zone between $2,700 and $2,711. This range represents a critical resistance area, where selling pressure is likely to increase. The price action in this zone will be pivotal in defining short-term market sentiment.
Key Observations:
Supply Zone: $2,700 - $2,711.
Downward Target: If gold fails to break above the supply zone, the likely move will be a short towards $2,680. This level represents a strong support zone, aligning with recent price activity and technical indicators.
Indicators: Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions as the price approaches the $2,700-$2,711 zone, further supporting the case for a pullback.
Trading Strategy
For traders, the current market setup presents both opportunities and risks:
Short Positions: Consider entering short positions if gold shows rejection at the $2,700-$2,711 supply zone, targeting $2,680. A tight stop-loss above $2,711 is recommended to manage risk.
Watch for Breakouts : If gold breaks above $2,711 with strong volume, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, invalidating the short bias.
Final Thoughts
Gold’s performance this week highlights its role as a safe-haven asset in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties. The Fed’s policy meeting next week will likely be a significant driver of gold’s trajectory. While the immediate technical outlook suggests a potential pullback, traders should remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions.
Bearish continuation Flag indicating Gold Fall towards 2665 $Short Entry Zone 2710-2700 Future contract
Profit taking zone 2665
Stop Loss( Risk 5% of equity) recommended because in this zone I prefer averaging trade with Max risk of 5% of equity
Bearish flag formation which indicate heavy price fall.
A **bearish continuation flag** is a technical chart pattern often observed in financial markets, indicating the potential continuation of a downward price trend. Here's a breakdown of the pattern:
Components of a Bearish Flag:
1. **Preceding Downtrend (Flagpole)**
- A sharp, steep decline in price that forms the "flagpole."
- Represents strong selling pressure.
2. **Consolidation Phase (Flag)**
- Following the decline, the price consolidates in a relatively narrow range.
- This consolidation typically takes the form of a small, upward-sloping rectangle or channel, showing a temporary pause in the trend.
3. **Breakout to the Downside**
- The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the lower boundary of the flag, resuming the downtrend.
- The breakout is often accompanied by increased trading volume.
Characteristics:
- **Trend Direction**: Continuation of a bearish trend.
- **Volume**: Declines during the consolidation phase and increases on the breakout.
- **Duration**: Flags are generally short-term patterns, lasting a few days to a few weeks.
- **Measured Move**: The expected price drop after the breakout is often equal to the length of the flagpole projected downward from the breakout point.
Trading the Pattern:
1. **Entry**: Enter a short position once the price breaks below the flag's lower boundary.
2. **Stop-Loss**: Place a stop-loss above the upper boundary of the flag to limit risk.
3. **Target**: Use the length of the flagpole to estimate the target price for the trade.
Example in a Chart:
Visualize a steep price drop, followed by a slight upward or sideways drift resembling a "flag," and then another drop once the price breaks below the flag's support.
End of the 1 year Gold Run ?Are we looking at the end of the 1 year gold run that started in October 2023 at around 1600 all the way to 2800.
Are are seeing the top of the structure - and RSI weaknesses. It is my strong belief that Gold already saw its peak on the week of October 28th 2024. It has ample room to correct. A 32.5 correction should take it to the 2300 levels. A 50% move correction, which is an indication of a deeper correction should take it to 2200 levels.
Gold Outlook for December 2024Sticking with my conviction that we have indeed capped the high for Gold for 2024 and have already fulfilled a 30% retracement back into the overall range. We could potentially be ranging for the remainder of the year. I'm anticipating major breakouts within Q1 of 2025. If gold decides to breakout of its current range prior to 2025, then I would be anticipating a buy-side manipulation to take price lower towards the equal lows inside of Q3 of 2024. Let me know if you have any comments or questions below, or just your overall thoughts as well. Bless.
Gold Is GO! And Everything Lined UpThe open was above the Center-Line and everything else lined up nicely.
To me this is a fair Long, with a good Stop below the last MoMo Candle.
I like to take partial profits, so I have two in this case. The first at the 1/4 line, since price has a tendency to bounce there. The second one is the Upper-Medianline-Parallel (U-MLH).
Let the fireworks begin
