7/11/24 - $abnb - LT winner but ST headwinds7/11/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ABNB
LT winner but ST headwinds
- best in class
- generates healthy >4% fcf yield
- 30x PE (in theory) expensive - but opex leverage not normalized in this environment - PF # probably closer to mid 20s in a smoothed scenario
- size factor is ambiguous. 88 bn enterprise value not "small" (by any stretch) but also not a small cap that i tend to think r good beneficiaries of the current environment (read my take on AMEX:IWM from last night)
- even the chart showing higher lows and higher highs since the '22 low in tech stonks - that's good
- on it's equal weighted SPXEW pair looks sideways, unconvincing - this matters
- if i didn't need to own the stock i'd probably not in the current environment
- google trends are good/ not great - stalled bc of environment
trends.google.com
- i'd want to pick this up once we figure out what's happening w/ the rates picture. if this marches higher i have no problem letting it go - i don't think there's an obvious 10-15% upside here into YE w/o a lot of monitoring
- if we get some sort of risk off, this is probably a weak link esp having just dipped below the 200d EMA... last few times it did that we saw a bit more dippity dip. not my bread and butter - but i use TA as a layer to my above thinking.
- i like it more in the $120s. near $150 (like today) i'm ambivalent and see many other names that have better than low teens growth, cash generative, better GM's and trading cheaper than 8x. 6x. fine. 25x on current cons. PE. let's go.
- sidelines.
what do u think?
V
