DESCENDING TRIANGLETop line slopes down. Bottom line is almost flat.
Downtrend noted.
Neutral pattern until broken.
No recommendation.
MRNA trade ideas
Moderna MRNA has printed an IH&SModerna MRNA has printed an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern as seen on the chart.
I've removed the moving averages and changed the view to LINE so the trend pattern is easily seen.
Recent Bullish action is supporting this great company that has recently been bashed down.
Latest news could boost this tickers future income & profit?
Lets see.
Study Invest and use Stop Losses.
Kind Regards
Graham
MRNA a medical Technology Stock LONG MRNA is a medical technology company. It is in the vaccine sector and competes ( well) with
NVAX and PFE among others. Earnings are upcoming on 8/3 in about a week.
On the 30 minute chart it appears to be in a descending wedge pattern which is typically
a bottoming with a breakout over and beyond the descending trendline. The relative
trend indicator shows the downtrend to be a slow grinding type trend with some minor
corrections along the way. As might be expected the RS lines are low in the indicator's
channel. I see this as a setup for a pre-earnings play with the expectation that MRNA
could breakout above the resistance trend line and move toward the horizontal resistance
of the triple top earlier in mid-July. I see medical stocks as a good alternative to technology
stocks that may be overextended and stressed by the current financial chaos pressuring
the markets. Another approach is a two call options targeting $ 125 expiring 8/11
and running the first until 100% profit or 8/2, the day before the expiration whichever
comes first and letting the other run through earnings into the middle of the following
week at 8/9. I always like to cut these short of expiration by a few days to diminish the
effects of time decay.
Moderna Break of Major Support, Short PotentialThis is a Technical Analysis on Moderna (MRNA) on the 1 Week Timeframe.
Current price action shows that we are currently in the process of breaking a MAJOR SUPPORT Zone.
We held critical SUPPORT multiple times ABOVE the $115.00 level, for a span of about 26 months. Expressed by the GREEN circles. But notice we havent been able to successfully rally and stay above the "MAJOR RESISTANCE" line.
Though the CURRENT candle has not yet closed, which it will end of trading session Monday, the 7th of August.
This in my opinion is a critical development. If we CONFIRM below this $115 ish area, the lower range of about $82.00 of the ORANGE zone becomes more likely.
The ORANGE zone, or price range between $115 and $82 has barely any market structure or in other words barely any candles. It would be easy for price to fall stright down, in my opinion.
This can be an area to take a SHORT position.
Another thing to notice since the BLOW of top, we have been forming a DESCENDING TRIANGLE. Its been forming since August 2021, this is NO JOKE. Measuring the target of the end point of descending triangle we get about a 75% drop target. Just remember it doesnt have to play out exactly but its something to consider and keep in the back of the mind.
So just to mention:
1st Target = $82 ish area
2nd Target = $57- $47 range
Last Target = Descending triangle measured target of $29 ( *Less likely for the time being)
RSI has been:
1. printing Lower Highs
2. is currently below the Black Moving average, which i use as an indication of price moving down
3.Is currently in process of ALL TIME RSI LOW, provided we close this weeks candle at current RSI lvl.
STOCH RSI -> Setting up for a BEARish cross. This if it occurs and we are below the MAJOR SUPPORT, bearish momentum can push price down.
Lastly ADX & DI -> We have RED line cross above Green and pointing up. We need to observe this, this indicates also the BEARISH momentum is coming in. If the BLACK moving average curves up and starts moving towards the RED/GREEN line with RED being on top, this will indicate bearish momentum.
CONCLUSION:
We are at major cross roads for MRNA. If we don't have any buying occur during Mondays trading session, and we close below MAJOR SUPPORT, it may be time to SHORT MRNA. We have not had any luck trying to break and stay above the "MAJOR RESISTANCE" line. This, along with multiple touches on MAJOR SUPPORT, has made this WEAK (in my opinion). Short targets include the primary, secondary and descending triangle target levels. Indicators are also shaping up to support the current price action. At times like this, it is important to observe further clues of bearish activity, to be patient and take it one step at a time.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
MRNA ~ Breaking Bullish or back to Hibernation ?NASDAQ:MRNA recently closed above a long term trend line (resistance) today on the 4 Hour chart. This is great news for NASDAQ:MRNA bulls.
Today, NASDAQ:MRNA CEO says they expect sales to increase to "6 - 8 Billion USD" because of COVID and other generic flu vaccinations they are going to be selling. Could mean that vaccinations are making a come back (link posted below)?
The good news for NASDAQ:MRNA bulls is that the chart looks promising. Ideally, we need to see the following happen BEFORE I WOULD GO LONG :
1) NASDAQ:MRNA needs to close and hold the trend line (resistance now) as a support level with a clear test and hold
2) NASDAQ:MRNA needs to see an increase in volume as typically sellers have been able to manipulate the price of NASDAQ:MRNA with low volume as bulls have been weak
3) NASDAQ:MRNA will test $117 [ First Major Resistance Level ] and then $122 [ 200 EMA ]
Over all, I am not a huge bull on NASDAQ:MRNA , the chart just looks promising. I think the fundamentals need to catch up. There is a reason why the market has beaten down NASDAQ:MRNA stock from the COVID-19 all time highs. If fundamentals start lining up, I could see NASDAQ:MRNA breaking out of this slump.
Link to Moderna CEO Interview --> www.fiercepharma.com
Short thisIf you want to have some edge in your portfolio, short this. Price is testing the broken support, happens to be an important one, and now is a strong resistance. There is a lot of resistance above, it needs more than a bounce to break it up. I already have a short position, is just a matter of days to price falls like a rock. Too many bearish patterns playing out. Every time it pulls back up is an opportunity to buy puts.
Potential Long Awaits For MRNAWait for that big green candle Appear.
Pattern Analysis:
We will perform a detailed analysis of MRNA's past performance, including its price movements, volume, and other relevant factors. Our goal is to identify patterns and trends that could indicate future price action.
Trend Lines:
One of the most common tools used in pattern recognition is trend lines. These lines connect a series of highs or lows and form a channel that helps predict future price movement. We will draw several trend lines on MRNA's historical price chart to identify potential areas of support and resistance.
Breakout Scenario:
Our analysis reveals a clear uptrend in MRNA's price over the past year, which suggests that the stock is likely to continue growing. However, we need to confirm this hypothesis by looking for signs of a breakout. A breakout occurs when the stock breaks above a previously established resistance level, indicating a change in the overall trend.
Long Idea:
Based on our analysis, we believe that MRNA has the potential to experience a breakout and continue its upward trend. Specifically, we are looking for a scenario where the stock closes above the upper end of a previously established trend line. This would indicate a shift in the overall trend and potentially signal a continuation of the current upswing.
Position Sizing:
When implementing this trade, we recommend taking a medium-to-long position size. This allows us to ride out any potential pullbacks while still maintaining a significant allocation to the stock.
Stop-Loss Management:
We will set a stop loss at the previous day's low, which will act as a buffer against unexpected losses. Additionally, we will monitor the stock's volatility and adjust the stop loss accordingly to avoid excessive risk exposure.
Exit Strategy:
Our exit strategy will involve closing the position once the stock reaches a predetermined target price or when it experiences a significant correction. We will also monitor news and events that could impact the stock's performance and adjust our positions accordingly.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, our analysis indicates that MRNA has the potential to continue its upward trend. We believe that the stock offers a promising entry point for long positions. Please do your own due diligence before taking the long position.
MRNA breakoutPositive news on cancer vaccine: On August 23, 2023, Moderna announced positive results from a clinical trial of its personalized cancer vaccine in combination with Merck's Keytruda. The trial showed that the combination therapy was effective in reducing the risk of relapse in patients with high-risk melanoma. This positive news is likely boosting investor sentiment in Moderna's stock.
Strong demand for COVID-19 vaccines: Moderna is also benefiting from strong demand for its COVID-19 vaccines. The company has signed contracts to supply its vaccines to countries around the world, and it is expected to generate billions of dollars in revenue from COVID-19 vaccines in 2023.
Technical factors: The chart for Moderna's stock is also showing signs of a breakout. The stock has been trading in a range for the past few months, but it recently broke out above the upper edge of the range. This breakout is likely to attract more buyers and drive the stock higher.
Overall, there are several reasons why Moderna's stock is breaking out based on the chart. The company is benefiting from positive news on its cancer vaccine, strong demand for its COVID-19 vaccines, and technical factors. These factors are likely to continue to support the stock in the near future.
Here are some additional technical analysis on Moderna's stock:
The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This is a bullish sign.
The stock is forming a cup-with-handle pattern, which is a bullish technical pattern.
The relative strength index (RSI) is above 50, which is also a bullish sign.
These technical factors suggest that Moderna's stock is in a strong uptrend and could continue to rise in the near future. However, it is important to remember that technical analysis is not always accurate, and investors should always do their own research before making any investment decisions.
Covid 2023 - Profiting from CorruptionHello everyone Josh here again. I’m sure by now you’ve already heard mumblings of Covid’s imminent return. We are seeing everything from colleges to hospitals start to implement Covid policies. The news cycle is starting to warn of a dangerous flu season/Covid return. Governments around the world are now updating their Covid policies and sleepy Joe’s White House is still pushing for the mass vaccination and experimentation on of human guinea pigs around the world.
With all this being said, it is my idea that we are about to go back into lockdown/full Covid policy mode. Although I wish this was not the case, I do intend to profit from it.
Illustrated is the Moderna chart, I use this, as it was one of the first assets I made money off of during the last pandemic, in fact, you can still go back and see my old idea on my page about Moderna when I called it at around sub $60. However, this could’ve been any chart from Amazon and Netflix to hospital sectors, to e-commerce platforms like Shopify. Basically, anything that will go up during a full-scale, pandemic/lockdown.
If my gut feeling is right, and we are going to go into a full-scale lock down, it might be one of the easiest plays of the century.
During the last pandemic, we saw airlines, cruise lines, casinos and resorts and a myriad of other sectors collapse to unprecedented lows. I expect something similar to happen this time around, to varying degrees of severity. Many people made millions by shorting assets last pandemic, I think we are setting ourselves up for the perfect storm to profit.
Look for stocks to long and short. Ignore the noise and make your money off of the lies of the global elite.
Below is an AI rendered breakdown of this idea.
Thank you so much for reading.
Please follow and like my ideas :)
Investment Thesis: Navigating Pandemic-Related Market Trends
I. Introduction:
The investment thesis centers around capitalizing on potential market shifts resulting from pandemic-related policies enacted by governments and corporations globally.
II. Market Outlook:
Anticipating the implementation of pandemic-related rules and regulations, which could include mask mandates, lockdowns, and travel restrictions.
III. Asset Allocation Strategy:
A. Long Positions:
E-commerce Dominance: As witnessed during the previous pandemic, e-commerce platforms like Amazon thrived. This trend is likely to persist as people turn to online shopping for convenience and safety.
Entertainment Streaming: Companies like Netflix benefited from increased demand for home entertainment. Expect this trend to continue, making streaming platforms potentially profitable investments.
Pharmaceutical Giants: Pfizer and Moderna played pivotal roles in vaccine development during the Covid pandemic. Their expertise positions them well for potential future vaccine requirements or pharmaceutical innovations.
Healthcare Stocks: Hospital and healthcare-related stocks may experience increased demand as health services remain crucial during pandemic periods.
B. Short Positions:
Travel and Hospitality Sectors: Historical data shows that airlines, cruise liners, resorts, and casinos experienced significant declines during the last pandemic due to travel restrictions and reduced consumer spending.
IV. Risk Considerations:
While historical patterns suggest certain sectors will benefit and others may decline during pandemics, unforeseen variables can impact market dynamics. Careful monitoring and adaptability are essential.
V. Diversification and Hedging:
To mitigate risks, consider diversifying your portfolio across industries and asset types. This approach helps balance potential losses from short positions with gains from long positions.
VI. Exit Strategy:
Regularly reassess the investment landscape, keeping an eye on shifts in policies, vaccination rates, and economic indicators. Be prepared to adjust your positions accordingly to optimize gains or minimize losses.
VII. Conclusion:
In light of potential pandemic-related policies, a strategic investment approach involves capitalizing on e-commerce, streaming, pharmaceutical, and healthcare sectors, while shorting travel and hospitality sectors. Prudent risk management, diversification, and a proactive exit strategy will be pivotal in navigating the ever-evolving market landscape.
Please note that investment decisions involve inherent risks, and it's advisable to consult with a qualified financial advisor before executing any investment strategy.
my levels to write MRNA put optionswhat is its story in 2024 and beyond?
The potential administrative and compliance benefit of Moderna’s combination respiratory vaccine against COVID-19, flu, and RSV, which we expect to launch as early as 2025.
Moderna has multiple shots on goal with its late-stage pipeline.
While Moderna increased 2023 revenue guidance to $7B, guidance is dependent on increasing US vaccination rates.
MRNA earnings setupMRNA earnings are on Thursday 8/3 pre-market. July 26 (Reuters) - Moderna (MRNA.O) and its partner Merck (MRK.N) said on Wednesday that they had begun enrolling patients in a late-stage study testing their personalized mRNA-based skin cancer vaccine in combination with the immunotherapy Keytruda. Data from a mid-stage study in 157 patients had shown that the vaccine combination cut the risk of recurrence or death by 44% in patients with melanoma, the most deadly form of skin cancer, when compared with Keytruda alone.
I'm posting this as a long for MRNA because of the technical entry setup heading into earnings on Thursday. MRNA future earnings guidance should be much better than the bad earnings results for Q2 2023. Technically speaking, 115 is a very good place to start a MRNA dca share or far dated expiry calls long position. 145 is MRNA anchored VWAP for 2023, so that is my upside target area for 2023.
Q2 June 2023 Consensus:
EPS: -3.84
Revenue: 319.64 M
MRNA options data:
8/18/23 expiry
Put Volume Total 118
Call Volume Total 306
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.39
Put Open Interest Total 13,153
Call Open Interest Total 16,143
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.81
1/19/2024 LEAPS
Put Volume Total 54
Call Volume Total 109
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.50
Put Open Interest Total 56,492
Call Open Interest Total 64,044
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.88
