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NIO - Why Are You Long On Another Shanghai Disaster?So NIO makes electric cars and is a company from Mainland China, which means that by default it's a Chinese Communist Party state-run enterprise because of the realities of Chinese law and living under the CCP's jurisdiction. Earnings are tomorrow morning and IV on options are juiced to 150% at the money expiring September 1 and 75% expiring January '24. It might be pretty easy for this company to print a beat considering estimates are only $1.2~ billion compared to the $1.7, $2.5, $1.8, and $1.5 billion in the prior segments. But as we've seen with earnings on stuff like AMD AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits Breed Target Target - Why Is Everyone Desperate To Long Disasters? Snowflake Snowflake - Is It Time To Stop Gambling On Chop? and Disney Disney - Is Your Compass Upside Down? That a short lived earnings-linked climax has been the optimal moment to enter short and ride the move towards the bottoms. The problem with companies rooted in Shanghai is that Shanghai is the toad's den, the headquarters of the faction of former Chairman Jiang Zemin, who died, and is solely responsible for the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting campaign against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners. But even if the company were rooted in Shenzhen, Beijing, or Guangzhou, the problem would be that any company that relies on Mainland Chinese demand to fuel sales, including companies as big as Apple, are in big trouble. The reason is simple. If you look at Our World In Data and examine how many people died from Coronavirus Disease 2019, the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping claims that 121,563 people have died since the pandemic began. The United States with less than 1/4th the population has reported over 1.2 million deaths by comparison. And on top of that, everyone knows how the CCP covered up and lied to the world about the 2003 SARS pandemic. So let's say for a minute, considering China's population of 1.4 billion compared to America's 355 million people, and that China is the epicentre of the pandemic, that as few as 10 million people actually died. Now, consider the number of people counting as eligible buyers who have died in China is even higher than this number because of the huge amount of flooding, natural, and manmade disasters that have occurred over the same period of time. Let's be generous and say that only 15 million people have died. How does that impact the sales of companies like NIO, Tesla, Apple, and everyone else who has become reliant on the Chinese market? Perhaps it isn't enough to cause a 2008-style bubble deflation yet, but we're certainly seeing the impact on the balance sheets, aren't we? And yet people are telling you to get long on NIO. Technically speaking, the monthly bars show us that since the October dump, every candle, no matter how big the retrace has been, has simply respected the gap created by the dump. And this is significant because that dump was an astonishing 63 percent in two months. And at today's prices of $11 this company is still claimed to be worth $15 billion, even while Evergrande has become a penny stock, the Yuan is in huge trouble, and the entire Chinese economy is on the brink of collapse. Something I have enlightened to in recent times is that reversal patterns are not reversal patterns unless the market has traded to its true bottom. This was the problem everyone who was trying to long Tesla, Meta, and Amazon all the way down kept running into. If you buy too early then you have to sit there in drawdown waiting for 25% miracle candles just to break even for a single day. And so you always have to ask yourself if the market has traded to its true bottom before you decide to donate your retirement funds to the Party longing a retrace. On the weekly, the breakout to $16 would be bullish, if $7.5 were the bottom But the problem is that the most meaningful gap on weekly bars was never retraced to after it broke up and it ran away towards $60, and that gap starts at $5.59, almost 50% away from where we traded today. So is NIO a long? Social media wants you to get long because every dumpster pattern that looks like a disaster is a long, for some reason. But NIO is not likely to be a long, no matter how nice of a car and how much of a Tesla killer they may arguably make. But with a $1.2 billion earnings estimate, that's pretty beatable, and so we may see a real retrace tomorrow, however short lived, that could see smart call buyers who exit early or immediately bagging a nice profit. For everyone else, perhaps it really is worth buying puts at $14 expiring in March of 2024 and closing them off at $5.5 Because NIO is a Shanghai dumpster fire, this thing can go down and down and down and down in accordance with the Hang Seng Tech even if the Nasdaq and the SPX rallies in Q4. In the meantime, perhaps September will be a bit of an early autumn for the markets, and perhaps for the world-at-large. Be careful. Shanghai is the "Babylon" spoke of in The Book of Revelations. Babylon is a city, not a person. And everyone who put roots there is dirty, perhaps including Tesla and Elon Musk, the man who wants to turn Twitter into the CCP's social credit keystones Wechat/TikTok.
NYSE:NIOShort
by LordWrymouth
1
NIO - are the fundamentals good enough?Analysts have adjusted earnings estimates and thus, an earnings beat does not always translate to good prospects for some of the businesses: Earnings Estimate Management From the earnings forecast by Investing above, we can note the following: The coming EPS forecast (for the period ending 06/2023) is worse than the previous period ending 03/2023. In fact, the EPS forecast is expected to be the worst at record -2.96 since 06/2022. For the revenue forecast, it is expected to be lower than the previous quarter. It stands at 9.16B compared to the forecast of 11.93B from the previous quarter ending 03/2023. This is in fact the lowest revenue forecast since 06/2022. In the event that NIO beats both EPS & revenue forecast in the coming earnings, is the company doing better? In my opinion, it is a “NO”. Beating such an estimate is not something to brag about as the company remains unprofitable with “falling” sales. It can be too early to call this a falling trend but the quarterly signs are there. Conclusion Before we embrace any content from news agencies or investing portals, let us do our due diligence. One quarter does not define a trend and thus, looking at the business as a whole from afar can help to put some objectivity and remove the impact of seasonality. This will help to put things in a better context as we even out peaks from new launches and service offerings.
NYSE:NIOShort
by kyhbko
NIO Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold NIO when it had a market cap of $75.43 Billion: or after this comparison to BMW: and reentered before the previous earnings: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NIO prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 10usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2024-2-16, for a premium of approximately $2.48. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:NIOLong
by TopgOptions
1
NIO to continue in the downward move?NIO - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 10.48 (stop at 11.28) Prices have reacted from 16.18. Short term momentum is bearish. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. A break of the recent low at 10.50 should result in a further move lower. In our opinion this stock is overvalued. We look for losses to be extended today. This stock has seen poor sales growth. Our profit targets will be 8.48 and 8.08 Resistance: 11.33 / 12.00 / 12.50 Support: 10.50 / 10.00 / 9.50 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
NYSE:NIOShort
by VantageMarkets
NIO finishing a Fib Retracement Ready to Continue LONGNIO on the 4H chart was on an uptrend into a double top in late July and Early Augus. This was confluent with the second upper deviation line above the mean anchored VWAP line which is thick black. Now on the retracement price has hit the mid-Fibonacci levels of 0.38-0.5-0.62. The MACD is sowing an early buy signal with a line cross under the histogram. I see this as a long trade on continuation with some early bullish divergence with a the potential upside of 20% back to the VWAP lines whose resistance forced the double top. I will put this on my China watchlist watching for the pivot low from which to enter.
NYSE:NIOLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
"Charging Up: Bullish Momentum Ahead for NIO with a $22 Price TaNIO "Charging Up: Bullish Momentum Ahead for NIO with a $22 Price Target" 1. Price Formation: The price has broken out from an inverted C&H price formation on a daily chart. 2. Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is above the 21-day MA, which is a positive sign indicating short-term bullish momentum. 3. 200-day Moving Average is below the Price. 4. Thus, Mas 7>21>200 5. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is greater than 50, indicating bullish momentum and potential further upward movement. 6. Price Target: $22.00 NIO NIO Inc. is a Chinese automobile manufacturer that specializes in designing and developing electric vehicles. The company was founded in 2014 by William Li, and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. As of my last update in September 2021, NIO offers several models of electric vehicles, including the ES8, a full-size SUV; the ES6, a performance SUV; the EC6, a coupe-style SUV; and the ET7, a luxury sedan. They are known for their impressive range, high performance, and innovative battery swapping technology, which allows the car's battery to be replaced in a few minutes instead of waiting for it to charge. NIO has established itself as a significant player in the electric vehicle market, often compared to Tesla for its high-tech vehicles and its status as a start-up that's challenging traditional automakers. However, the company has faced some financial challenges, as the electric vehicle market is highly competitive and requires substantial capital to innovate and produce vehicles.
NYSE:NIOLong
by Sahle
My Swing Approach For NIO Touching 50 and 200 EMAI was waiting to see NYSE:NIO this week as it could continue to move around the 200 EMA or possibly go even lower to the 50 EMA. The lowest and clearest support area that I see is only at $10.51. I would love to get feedback if you are seeing something else. So this is why I chose to use the EMA's as an entry point. I took a long position today at $11.57 after starting the day at around $11.20. So I got in after pushing around 3% on the day to cross back to the 50 EMA and touch the 200 EMA with a little pushback, so I entered after that. There is a huge gap down to my lower support, at around $10.51, so I put my stop loss at around $11.14, which would be a ~3.72% loss. I want to exit and sell my position at around $12.65, a potential 9.51% upside. In that area, it would be back at the 20 EMA.
NYSE:NIOLong
by alivne