SPY Trading Plan 10/11Today we opened at 576.05. Today, ATR will be from 570.51 to 581.59. With a high base break out, need to stay bullish regardless of bias. The target for today will be 581. Trade is live.
SPY trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-11 EOD UpdateOverall, this week has been rock solid. Even though the markets moved downward after the US Treasury auction early this week, the recovery and rally on Thursday and Friday were right on schedule.
Remember, I've highlighted my SPY Cycle Patterns more than three weeks into the future before the beginning of October. Mapping Daily price action like this is impossible for almost anyone.
The idea that I can identify price patterns weeks and months in advance and attempt to identify where and when trade opportunities may exist based on these advanced patterns is of real value.
I'm not waiting for price to move in some formation or setup, I know where price will likely base/bottom, or peak/top, and I know where opportunities should exist for profitable trades days or weeks in advance.
Now, you've seen how these patterns work and how I use other advanced TA techniques to identify real opportunities.
What are you waiting for...
Get Some.
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Opening (IRA): SPY Oct 18th 515 Covered Call... for a 511.00 debit.
Comments: After taking profit, re-upping here out in October, selling the 84 call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Going lower delta here, since I've already realized gains for (basically) September.
There is a divvy to be had in Sept, with the last distribution being 1.76, so this will improve the unsexy ROC %-ages somewhat ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 511.00/share
Max Profit: 4.00 ($400); 5.76 ($576) with dividend, assuming a 1.76 distribution.
ROC at Max: .78% ROC at max; 1.13% ROC (with dividend)
50% Max: 2.00 ($200); 3.76 ($376) (with dividend)
ROC at 50% Max: .39% ROC. 74% ROC (with dividend)
Will generally look to take this off at >50% after the dividend drops or look to roll out in-profit short call to maintain net delta at +25 or less.
Milking buyers similar to 2008? TheoryJust an interesting comparison, these trends might intuitively show the possibility of slow liquidity exit.
$SPY October 11, 2024AMEX:SPY October 11, 2024
15 Minutes.
575 was protected yesterday.
Now we have 9,21,50 averages converged in 15 minutes.
For the rise 566.63 to 577.71 holding 573.5 to 575 uptrend will continue to 579 levels.
For the fall 577.58 to 574.59 need to cross 576.5 - 577 for 579 levels.
The longs opened around 575 yesterday will be closed around 579-579.5 levels.
For the SL will be 573 levels.
$SPY Tomorrow’s Implied Move for PPI
Alright, y’all. We have a fully bullish setup here with the 35EMA underneath us and the 30min 200MA under that for support. ATH’s right above.
Play both sides…
Here we are also holding above the rate cut gap after FOMC. It’s my opinion that we need to go in there and test it for real support but so far we’re bullish - watch Stupid Willy here for either a return to the green or a breakdown here to the 30min 200 on the day.
— Storm update: I’m so good, but I don’t have power so I can’t make videos until that’s fixed. Until then I’ll be posting charts here when I can. 🙌🏼
$SPY is Spying on You This is a very simple and straightforward technical analysis on AMEX:SPY of price action VS the Moving Averages.
A tried, True and Valid method of analysis is knowing when we have become to extended from the moving averages and determining that a return to the mean is appropriate.
In the case of the AMEX:SPY , SP:SPX or CAPITALCOM:US500 we are more and more extended by the day.
For comparison I have included an image from the Dot Com Bubble Crash when we moved 47% away from the 20 Year Moving Average. Again in 2022 when we moved nearly 32% away from the 20 year moving average. The NDX for reference was almost 75%!!!! Off it's moving average in the Dot Com Bubble.
We currently sit at nearly 33% away from the 20 Year Moving Average.
To Say we are extended is an overstatement. Things will return to normal.
But will we have a spectacular blow off top first?
SPY for Friday (10/11/2024)Price Action:
Current Resistance Zone: SPY appears to be hovering around a resistance zone near 577.64 - 577.71. These levels have seen multiple tests but no breakout. The market has consolidated in this region.
Support Zones: There's a visible support area at 565.31, marked by a green order block on the chart. The price has previously bounced from this level.
Trendline Support: There's a rising trendline suggesting that the overall structure still remains bullish, provided the price continues to respect it.
Direction:
Bullish Bias: The price is still in an uptrend as it hasn't broken below the trendline support. However, if SPY fails to break above the 577.71 resistance zone, it might pull back toward the trendline or the lower support near 567.50.
Bearish Potential: A break below 574.47 could lead to further downside toward 573.34 and potentially lower to the 565.31 area if selling pressure increases. Watch for a confirmation of trendline break or further rejection at resistance.
Order Block:
Bullish Order Block: The green block area around 567.50 to 565.31 represents an accumulation zone where buyers have previously stepped in, creating a support base. If price retraces to this zone, it's likely to see buying activity again.
Bearish Order Block: If the price fails to break above the 577 region and reverses, it could set up a lower high, pushing it back toward the trendline or the green block. Monitor how price behaves in this resistance zone.
Indicators:
Volume: Volume seems to be decreasing in the recent rally, which could indicate weakening bullish momentum, especially near resistance.
Momentum Oscillators: The oscillators below the chart seem to show volatility spikes, indicating a potential shift in momentum soon.
Strategy:
For scalping, you may consider shorts near 577.64 with a stop just above 577.71, aiming for a retracement to the order block around 567.50.
For long trades, look for a bounce or consolidation at the lower trendline or support block near 565.31 for potential entries.
Disclaimer:
This technical analysis is based on historical price data and does not guarantee future performance. Always consider external factors, such as macroeconomic data and market conditions, when trading. Risk management is essential to limit potential losses.
SPY 10/10 Trading PLanToday, we opened at 575.77 with a current ATR of 5.80. The range for today will be between 581.57 to 569.97. VIX at 21. Let's see if it wants to continue higher to test 581. I think it may just base here. But if it does climb up to 580 or 581 ill look at price action there and see if I enter a short position. If we come down to 569ish, I look to get into the upside. In the meantime, I'll sit on my hands. I don't think much is going to go on today. Lets see what happens.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-10 : Carryover in Carryover ModeToday's cycle pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ price action will be very similar to yesterday's price action. I believe the markets are starting to move away from the basing/bottoming phase and moving back into trending phase.
Thus, I believe the SPY & QQQ will begin a rally up to highs reached before October 20-21, then form a top, and toll downward just before the US elections.
Gold needs to find some support and move higher - away from the 2625 price level. It is critical that Gold stay above 2620 at this stage. if Gold falls below 2620 - there is a very strong chance Gold will move into deeper consolidation and fail to rally above the 2750++ level I expect.
BTCUSD has already reached my lower support zone. I do expect Bitcoin to consolidate a bit near this lower price channel, but the next move is to either revert higher, or breakdown even further. Currently, I suggest waiting 20 to 48 hours with Bitcoin to let price settle on a new trend.
Get some.
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SPY Multi-Timeframe Analysis: S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)1. Weekly Chart:
Uptrend Intact: The weekly chart shows that SPY continues to trade within a broader uptrend, consistently making higher highs and higher lows. It has held above its key moving averages, particularly the 50-week moving average (blue) around $515.
MACD Momentum: The MACD histogram shows continued positive momentum. This suggests that bullish sentiment remains strong, with no significant reversal signals yet.
Key Resistance: We are testing the $577 level, which appears to be a significant resistance zone. If broken, SPY could extend toward new all-time highs.
2. Daily Chart:
Testing Resistance: The daily chart provides a clearer view of the immediate resistance at $577. We’ve seen several attempts to break through this level, but so far, the price has been contained below it.
Moving Average Support: The 50-day moving average (green) has acted as strong support, currently around $555.80. As long as SPY holds above this, the bulls remain in control.
Momentum Indicator: The MACD on the daily chart is trending positive, showing increasing bullish momentum. This signals that a breakout above $577 is likely if this momentum continues.
3. 4-Hour Chart:
Bullish Momentum Building: The 4-hour chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating the bullish momentum is building. Price has been supported by the 50-period moving average at $564.10.
Immediate Resistance: The key level remains $577. A clear break above this resistance level on strong volume could signal further upside, potentially pushing SPY toward the $580-$585 range.
MACD Shows Caution: While the MACD remains in the green, it’s showing early signs of slowing momentum on this timeframe. This suggests that a brief consolidation or pullback might occur before a breakout.
4. 30-Minute Chart:
Tight Range Formation: On the 30-minute chart, SPY is trading within a tightening range, with support around $572.21 and resistance at $577.11.
Key Trendlines: We can observe two converging trendlines (green and red), which often precede a breakout. If SPY breaks above the red trendline (around $577), it could lead to a strong upward move. Conversely, a break below the green trendline would signal a potential retracement.
Bullish Outlook: SPY remains in a strong uptrend across multiple timeframes, with positive momentum indicators and key moving averages providing solid support. The next critical level to watch is $577. A sustained break above this could see SPY move toward the $580-$585 range, continuing the bullish trend.
Risk of Consolidation: However, there is a risk of short-term consolidation, especially on the lower timeframes, before any major breakout occurs. A drop below $564 on the 4-hour chart or $572 on the 30-minute chart could indicate a deeper pullback.
SPY for Tomorrow (10/10/2024)Key Levels
Support:
572.44: A recent support level indicated on the chart, near the current price range.
565.82 - 565.25: This zone represents a strong demand area, as indicated by the red bars below, which may act as a buffer if price retraces.
Resistance:
577.71: This is the most recent high, indicating potential resistance if SPY tries to break upwards again.
580 level: Based on the trend, this could act as psychological resistance as well.
Trend Analysis:
Shows an upward trend indicated by the diagonal line, but there’s some consolidation happening near resistance. There’s also potential for a pullback to test lower support levels before making another upward move.
EMA Lines: Short-term moving averages (like the ones shown) suggest bullish momentum as the price is trending above both EMAs. If price stays above the 573 level, the trend may continue upward.
Strategy for Tomorrow:
Bullish Scenario: If SPY opens strong and breaks above 577.71, you may look for a quick move toward 580. However, be cautious of any resistance forming at these higher levels.
Bearish Scenario: If SPY fails to hold above the 573 level, look for potential support around 572.44 or lower at 565.82, which could provide a good entry point for a reversal.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice. Always perform your own research and consider consulting a professional before making any trading decisions.
$SPY October 10, 2024AMEX:SPY October 10, 2024
15 Minutes.
2 days patience paid off.
AMEX:SPY broke 575 made a high 577.06 and retraced back to 575 to make a new high 577.71.
So consider the 2 fibs
Rise from 574..99 to 577.71. For this holding 575-576 is important.
For the fib extension 564.49 to 573.36 to 566.63 (because two LL 566.24 and 565.49 had oscillator divergence) 100% extension was 575 levels.
Hence was waiting to cross 575.
Now holding 575 which is 38.2% retracement for the rise 566.63 to 577.71 we have a target 578-579 levels.
On downside it is important to hold 570 levels as it is 61.8 retracement for the last rise from 566.63 and also 20 averages in 15 minutes.
So today I will buy on retrace at 575-576 levels for 579 as target.
The small rectangle box drawn is crucial to hold today.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Rising Wedge Pattern?Could be wrong since I'm relatively new to trading. Isn't this a downtrend reversal pattern?
To chase or not to chase?Those in calls already are sitting nicely. Especially if they have taken out their original money from their profits. They now have a free trade basically. As for us, who have missed the run, the question is should we chase?. I say, don't chase. Wait for a pullback. Or if you wish, buy a small amount. Do not buy 10 far OTM calls, when you could just buy 1 ITM calls. Why?. Because ITM calls have less theta, so if the price goes your way, you can sell immediately for a profit. OTM calls you will not be able to get out, if it doesn't go your way. As for long-term direction, then i don't know. Basically we all messed up not getting in early on the run. Now all that is left is to chase, which is more risky.
Break or Bust into Fed MinutesThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 17-18, 2024, concluded with a significant decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.75% to 5%. This marked the beginning of a new interest rate-cutting cycle, the first since March 2020.
In their discussions, FOMC members noted that while economic activity continued to expand, job gains had slowed and unemployment had risen slightly, though it remained low. Inflation showed progress towards the Fed's target of 2%, but was still elevated.
The committee expressed a balance of risks regarding employment and inflation, indicating that they felt confident in this rate cut amid improved inflation data.
The FOMC also projected further rate cuts in the coming months, with expectations for an additional 50 basis point reduction over the next two meetings. The economic outlook remains uncertain, and members emphasized that they would continue to evaluate incoming data and evolving conditions before making further adjustments
Markowitz Risk/Reward outlook diverse portfolioHere's a allocated set of decimals based on 20,000 prandom portfolio constructs based on 14 years of data (since recovery after 2008-09 GFC)
This timeline gives us less noise and focuses on the momentum of the current trend.
The final ticker decimals represent % allocation based on optimal reward with minimal risk.
SPY 0DTE After yesterday's bullish day, I'm going to sit back today and see what happens. SPY opened up at 573.16 today with a current ATR of 5.72. The upside can go to 578.88, and the downside is 567.44. Still, overall, really just basing here, but it feels like it's losing steam. Can we see 580? Yeah, it's high probability and much more likely. If this does run up to 578, I'll look to see if I can enter a short position with a target of 574 before we close today. If this falls down to 567 before the close, I'll take a look to see if I can catch a move to the upside to 572. Volatility is above 20 right now, so it is appropriate for me to take these types of quick trades if the set up is correct.
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels and targets for Oct 8 2024Alright y'all. No video tonight, well that's not true I did half a video but this storms coming at me and I have to get hunkered down.
Stay safe FL
SPY Ascending Wedge PathsNice rally for SPY off 565, now it's all the way back to the top end of the range near ATH. Nice little ascending wedge here, I'll be looking for longs on a retest if we break up above the wedge and past ATH. It could also be a good long if it pulls back to the bottom end of the wedge and holds.
If we get the downside break, first target is the bottom of the range again around 565 and then the 560 area for a final target. Another bearish scenario would be a brief ATH break that has a hard rejection at the top end of the wedge and can't hold the previous ATH on a retest.
SPY Technical Analysis on October 9, 2024
Price Action:
Current Price: $573.33, with a recent high of $573.78 and support at $572.69.
Trend: SPY is trading within an upward trajectory, breaking above previous resistance levels around $572, showing bullish momentum over the last trading sessions.
Key Levels:
Support:
Immediate support at $572.69.
Stronger support zone between $565.25 and $565.82, which has been tested multiple times as shown by the lower wicks in previous candles.
Resistance:
Immediate resistance at $573.78 (recent high).
Higher resistance around $576, aligning with the trendline.
Indicators:
MACD: Momentum is mixed but leaning bullish as the histogram shifts slightly upwards. However, it still indicates choppy action, suggesting potential consolidation near current levels.
Trading Plan:
For Bulls: Watch for a continuation above $573.78, targeting the $576 level as the next resistance. Entries could be made on pullbacks to support at $572.69, with stops placed below $572.
For Bears: A rejection from $573.78 could lead to a retracement toward the support zone at $565.25–$565.82. Look for a break below $572.69 to confirm a downside move.
Outlook for Tomorrow:
Bullish Bias: As long as SPY holds above $572.69, the short-term bias remains bullish. However, any failure to break above $573.78 might lead to sideways or slight bearish movements.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on technical data and is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research and consider risk management when trading.
SPY is going to 580AMEX:SPY broke above the flag on the 4H and the next resistance is the 580 defined by the trendline.
There is also a lot of call flow for 580 expiring this October 25th so that will be a
Unless Bears can smash it below 572, the trade idea still stands
The 580 will also take it over the monthly bollinger bands and setup the market for a nice reversal
