ECB impact on IBEX 35 and EURUSDThe European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a definite path towards monetary easing under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, whose dovish (stimulus) policy is designed to address the eurozone's economic slowdown without compromising strategic sustainability objectives. The recent rate cuts, combined with the rollback of the €1.85 trillion debt purchase program, reflect an expansionary stance that seeks to sustain growth, finance sustainable projects and ensure economic stability.
The dovish policy and its connection to the Green Deal and Mercosur
Lagarde's stance, characterized by an accommodative monetary policy, is manifested in a series of decisions aimed at easing financial conditions. The re-orientation of the debt purchase program, initially designed to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, is now focused on supporting strategic sectors such as agriculture and the ecological transition, fundamental pillars of the European Green Deal.
In addition, this policy fosters synergies with the Mercosur-EU agreement, which prioritizes agricultural and sustainable trade. The funds redistributed by the ECB reinforce support for the modernization of the agricultural sector, facilitating the transition to more sustainable practices in line with the European Commission's climate objectives.
Impact on EURUSD and financial markets
The ECB's dovish stance puts pressure on the euro against the dollar, maintaining a clear, albeit moderate, bearish path. However, this strategy seeks to create a low interest rate environment that facilitates the financing of green and sustainable projects, consolidating the perception of stability in the Eurozone.
In the short term, the EUR/USD could face fluctuations, but in the long term, the flow of sustainable investments could support a moderate recovery of the euro. The ECB's expansionary policy also encourages appetite for riskier assets, which could translate into a strengthening of equity markets. From a technical perspective, the dollar has tested the lows of 1.04525 in the wake of the news, moving sideways in today's morning session.
The IBEX 35 and the key levels to watch
The IBEX 35, although affected by the volatility associated with the ECB's decisions, could benefit from strategic sectors linked to the Green Deal, such as energy and agriculture. The aid redistributed from the debt purchase program will boost key companies in the index, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
From a technical perspective, the index maintains its consolidation in the range of 11,700-11,850 points, with crucial support at 11,625 points. As long as these levels are not lost, the market could resume its uptrend, in line with the optimism generated by the ECB's expansionary policy and the expectations of a Christmas Rally.
Conclusion: Synergy between monetary policy and sustainability
Lagarde's dovish policy not only addresses the economic slowdown, but also supports the European Union's strategic objectives. The redirection of the debt purchase program towards sustainable and agricultural projects strengthens the ECB's commitment to balanced growth, while fostering economic resilience in an uncertain global environment.
For investors, this scenario offers opportunities in key sectors, supported by an expansive monetary framework and sustainable policies. Both the IBEX 35 and the EUR/USD remain watchful of the evolution of these measures, which could mark the beginning of a phase of a return to sustained and resilient growth in the eurozone.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ES35.F trade ideas
ES35/ESPIXEUR "SPAIN 35" Index Market Heist Plan on Bullish SideHola! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist ES35 / ESPIXEUR "SPAIN 35" Index Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry should be in pullback.
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2H timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Long side, If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
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An upward opportunityIbex may rally upwards due to the sell off not stabilising under 11300. However, the price may bounce back up above 11300 heading towards the top. Breaking the mark may see bearish continuation.
Trendline breakWe see the price make a pullback before the break, usually i wait for outer pullbacks but the price movement is backed up by a similar move on SPAIN35,EU50,DE40
WE ONLY TRADE PULLBACKS
Elliott Wave View on IBEX Provides Warning that Indices can See Short Term Elliott Wave View in IBEX suggests rally to 12040.79 ended wave ((3)). Wave ((4)) pullback is currently in progress to correct larger degree cycle from 3.20.2023 low. Internal subdivision of wave ((4)) is unfolding as double three (W)-(X)-(Y) where wave (W) is now unfolding as a zigzag. Down from wave ((3)), wave (i) ended at 11682.7 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 11959. Index extended lower in wave (iii) towards 11621.7 and rally in wave (iv) ended at 11716.9. Final leg wave (v) ended at 11616.6 which completed wave ((i)). Rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 11891.80.
The Index then extended lower in wave ((iii)) towards 11462.2 and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 11667. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 11295.2 which completed wave A. Wave B rally is now in progress to correct cycle from 10.17.2024 high with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 11672 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended a 11428.3. Expect wave ((c)) of B to fail below 12040.79 for further downside. Potential target is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). This area comes at 11800.3 – 12030.1 before the Index turns lower.
Ibex 35:The European King of the dividend vs Bonds in 2025The dividend yield of the IBEX 35 will reach 5.05% in 2025, according to estimates, doubling the current yield of 12-month Treasury Bills, which stands at 2.53%. This index has exceeded 5% at various points in 2024, marking the widest gap against the EUROSTOXX in a decade. Currently, the Ibex dividend is at 4.5%, and with every 250 point drop in the index, the yield increases by one tenth, reflecting its attractiveness to investors.
Comparison with other European indexes
Within the European panorama, the IBEX 35 is the index with the second highest dividend yield, second only to the Italian FTSE Mib. In contrast, other benchmarks such as the FTSE 100 UK show a lower yield of around 4.03%, while indices such as the STOXX 600, EUROSTOXX 50, DAX40 and CAC40 offer between 3.2% and 3.6% for the coming year. The Spanish market is also known for its generous dividend policy, having reached a peak in distribution in 2023, led by key sectors such as banking and telecommunications.
Outlook for 2025
Looking ahead to 2025, the Ibex is expected to maintain this outperformance, supported by dividends from strategic sectors, although corporate earnings growth could slow down. Analysts estimate a moderate increase of 4% in the profits of the companies in the index, which ensures a competitive return with respect to other European and American benchmarks.
Current technical analysis
We are witnessing a recovery in the index to the 11634 points zone, with the checkpoint zone being the value of November 5 around 11838 points closest to the highs zone. The RSI shows a 59.05% of overbought which could be representing that the current value has a possible increase in value. If we look at the last delta zone we can see that it is located above 11715 points. The current trend seems to be to evolve upwards, if the results of its companies continue to accompany, because it is one of the most defensive indexes in Europe.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
TRUMPDOWN- Ibex 35: Week of Declines after Trump's VictoryThe Ibex 35 faces a week of losses, registering an accumulated fall of 2.2%, influenced by the reelection of Donald Trump in the U.S. The prospect of new tariffs and restrictive trade policies have generated concern, especially for Spanish companies with international operations. At mid-session, the Spanish index fell 0.28% to 11,537.60 points, and then recovered to 11,586.80 points during the midday break.
Among the most affected stocks of the day were ArcelorMittal and BBVA, with declines of 2.72% and 2.59%, respectively. BBVA, in particular, faces uncertainty about how Trump's policies could influence its business in Mexico. In contrast, IAG and Grifols stand out positively, with increases of 5.82% and 5.77%, thanks to solid recent business results.
International Trends: Contrasts between Europe and the United States
The European context reflects investor caution, with declines in the region's main stock indexes. The German DAX and the EURO STOXX 50 are down 1.07%, while the French CAC 40 is down 1.01%. In contrast, the US indices, boosted by Trump's victory, show an opposite trend, reaching new highs on the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. This optimism on Wall Street has been helped by the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. At the end of the morning session, all indices are negative except the IBEX and the Portuguese PSI, a clear link between politics and indices.
Commodities and Currencies: Moderate Declines in Oil and Gold, with Euro Declining
The commodities market has a weak tone. Brent oil has fallen by 1.47% and gold has lost 0.56% to 2,690 dollars per ounce. In the currency market, the euro is down 0.22% against the dollar, trading at 1.0782 units. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has registered an increase of 1.71%, reaching 76,312 dollars.
This scenario shows a market divided between caution in Europe and optimism on Wall Street, where investors remain attentive to changes in U.S. trade policy and its impact on an uncertain economic environment.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Upward momentumThe index will test previous established higher highs due to finding support on an essential barrier at 11,400. As long as price action fails to go this barrier, bullish moves will be favourable until reversal.
ESP35 "Spain 35 CFD" Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish Side.Hola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist ESP35 "Spain 35 CFD" Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
Ibex 35: A Sectoral OverviewThe Ibex 35 has performed remarkably well in recent sessions, reaching an intraday high of 12,000 points, thanks to the solid performance of several market sectors.
Telecommunications
The telecommunications sector has been the main driver of the index, led by Telefónica. The company experienced a strong boost following a favorable European court decision regarding its German subsidiary, E. Plus. This endorsement helped Telefónica to lead the market and thus lift the index above 12,000 points.
Construction and Infrastructure
The construction and infrastructure sector also played an important role, with ACS standing out in the index. Its positive performance helped to keep the Ibex 35 at high levels, consolidating its position above 11,900 points.
Energy
In the energy sector, Iberdrola reached a significant milestone of over 14 euros per share, consolidating its capitalization at close to 90 billion euros. This success not only reflects the strength of the company, but also the confidence in the energy sector within the index.
Retail
Inditex, the retail giant, has shown solid resistance by adding 0.81% to its value, which also contributes to the overall thrust of the Ibex 35. Inditex's stability and growth are crucial to maintain confidence in the sector.
Banking
On the other hand, the banking sector faced difficulties. Bankinter and BBVA led the falls, with declines of 1.65%. The pressure on banks has become evident, limiting the growth of the index on a day when optimism predominated in other sectors.
Conclusions
As the Ibex 35 seeks to break above 12,000 points for good, the combination of strengths in sectors such as telecommunications, construction, energy and retail contrasts with the difficulties in banking. The market's attention will be focused on how these sectors continue to evolve in a changing economic context.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
The Ibex 35 takes a pause within an upward trendThe IBEX 35 remains flat, with mixed performance among the selective stocks. The most bearish companies are those negatively affected by interest rate cuts, such as banks, while construction, real estate, and utilities, which benefit from lower rates, rose today after:
Several ECB members advocate for another interest rate cut next week after having reduced them twice this year, and financial markets almost certainly expect a cut to the deposit rate to 3.5% on October 17.
The French central bank chief, François Villeroy: the cut is likely, and it will not be the last one, depending on how inflation evolves.
Economic weakness: The economy has been stagnating, the labor market is weakening, wage growth is slowing down, and inflation has fallen faster than the ECB had predicted.
Market expectations: Investors expect the ECB’s deposit rate to fall to 3% by the end of 2023 and to 2% by the end of 2025, which is considered the neutral rate, a level that neither stimulates nor slows economic growth.
Additionally, investors remain cautious due to global uncertainty and decisions from the Fed.
Investors are waiting for the minutes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting to get hints about interest rate easing in the U.S. The market estimates a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the next meeting.
U.S. inflation data (Thursday) and the producer price index (Friday) will be crucial.
Uncertainty in the U.S.: Recent employment data and wage inflation have raised doubts about Federal Reserve rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and increasing bond yields.
China and the Middle East: Market correction in China and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are affecting oil price stability and adding more pressure to international markets.
However, the IBEX 35 has an upward target activated by breaking out of a lateral range up to 12,413 points, a scenario which, in my opinion, is the most likely to materialize in the medium term.
Sergio Ávila
Analista senior de IG
IBEX 35 Triples its annual average and Performance Analysis
Cumulative performance in 2024: The Ibex 35 has maintained a remarkable performance in 2024, with a cumulative rise of 18.5% in the first nine months of the year, outperforming its historical annual average of 6.6%. This performance has consolidated the Spanish index as the strongest in Europe in this period, with a quarterly rise of 9.4%, outperforming its European peers such as the EuroStoxx 50, which posted a rise of 3.5%. Compared to the S&P500, its historical annual average is 9.5%, the DAX 10.3% and NASDAQ 18.1% (the most bullish).
Positive start to October: The start of October has been equally positive, with the index reaching new annual highs after a solid September, in which it rose 4.4%, taking the Ibex to 11,950 points, a level not seen since 2010.
General context and drivers: Although September is usually a month of market correction, this year has been an exception, as the easing of monetary policy has benefited equities, especially in more indebted sectors. This has facilitated a year-to-date rise of 16.8%.
Bullish Companies:
• IAG: IAG was the most bullish company in the quarter, up 33%.
• Financial sector: It has been key to the performance of the Ibex, with Banco Sabadell (+66% in the year) and Caixabank (+42%) standing out. Both continue to show growth opportunities due to their solid earnings and the expectation of higher credit volume and mergers that would offset the reduction in interest margins.
• Grifols: Although down 34.5% for the year, it has rebounded 59% from the March lows. A target price of 17.27 euros per share is projected, giving it a strong upside potential of 70%.
• Fluidra: followed IAG and Grifols as the third with a 21% rebound in September.
• Colonial: rose 12% in September.
• ArcelorMittal and Acerinox: Despite their falls so far this year, both have projected medium-term growth of 52% and 40%, respectively. September's rises were 11%.
• Energy and technology sectors: These are singled out by analysts as areas with potential, benefiting from the moderation in interest rates and macroeconomic momentum.
Bearish companies:
• Telefónica: Despite accumulating growth of 24.5% in 2024, its value is expected to decline by 5.7%, reflecting limited near-term growth potential.
• Inditex: The company has reached all-time highs after solid quarterly results, closing the month up 9%, but its further upside potential appears to be limited.
• Puig: fell 18.7% in September and accumulates a year-to-date loss of 21%.
Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
The Ibex 35: an attractive index full of opportunities in 2024Throughout 2024, the Ibex 35 has surprised investors with a 17% rally since the start of the year, consolidating its position as one of the best performing indices in Europe. This has been driven by key sectors such as banking, telecommunications, tourism and renewable energies. Despite this strong advance, the Spanish stock index is not considered expensive, offering an attractive opportunity for investors seeking long-term value.
An attractive price to book value
The Ibex 35 currently trades at a price-to-book ratio of 1.5x by 2025, making it one of the most attractive indices compared to its track record over the past decade. This discount has been made possible by the solid performance of the companies comprising the index, which have been able to take advantage of a favorable macroeconomic environment and persistently high interest rates in Europe.
Among the stocks that stand out for their discount to book value are Cellnex, Solaria and Rovi. Cellnex (Ticker AT: CLNX.ES), a leader in telecommunications infrastructure, trades at 1.8 times book value, well below its average of 11 times. This discount is in response to interest rate hikes and the company's deleveraging, which could lead to an increase in shareholder remuneration in the coming months. Solaria (Ticker AT: SLR.ES), one of the leaders in solar energy, trades at 2.5x versus a historical average of 9.7x, penalized by the fall in energy prices and delays in key projects. For its part, the pharmaceutical company Rovi (TICKER AT: ROVI.ES) offers a discount of more than 50% compared to its historical book value, making it one of the most attractive options for 2025.
Spanish banking leadership
Banking has been one of the big drivers of the Ibex 35 this year, boosted by the prolongation of a high interest rate environment. BBVA (TICKER AT: BBVA.ES)and Santander (SAN.ES), two of the index's leading banks, have seen their profit margins expand, and everything points to them remaining key players in the index's performance in the coming quarters.
In addition, other major Spanish companies such as Inditex (Ticker AT: ITX.ES), Telefónica and IAG have also played a relevant role in the Ibex leadership, benefiting from the recovery of tourism and post-COVID consumption, as well as organic growth and international expansions.
Outlook for the Ibex and the Spanish stock market
Despite the accumulated gains, the Spanish stock market continues to offer value. In addition to its discount to book value, macroeconomic expectations, especially in Europe, where possible interest rate cuts are expected, may continue to favor key sectors such as banking, infrastructure and renewable energies. These positive signals offer investors the opportunity to continue to participate in a market that has demonstrated strength and growth.
With a strong base in strategic sectors and the support of monetary policies that could become more accommodative in the coming months, the Ibex 35 continues to show great potential for appreciation in the medium and long term. Investors betting on this index will not only find companies with solid fundamentals, but also attractive dividends that complete the positive outlook for the Spanish stock market.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Fed Cuts: New Boost for the Ibex 35?The recent 50 basis point reduction by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has had a significant impact on global financial markets, including the Ibex 35. This cut, which comes on top of 18 similar occasions since the turn of the century, seeks to stimulate the economy in times of economic uncertainty. For the Ibex 35, the Fed's move has generated positive momentum.
The Spanish index has shown strength, and this effect is expected to spread to other indices such as the Ibex Medium and Small Caps, bringing them closer to their annual highs. The Ibex Small Caps, in particular, is close to reaching a crucial upward trend line, which could trigger a significant rally in Spanish equities.
The Fed's monetary policy, by cutting interest rates, not only affects the US dollar, but also has a knock-on effect on international stock markets. In Europe, the EuroStoxx 50 is approaching key resistance, while in the US, indices such as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones could surpass their annual highs, driven by the same monetary policy that favors stock markets.
Currently, the IBEX35, is currently at highs again at 11,881.43 points with a strong trading zone between 11,195.46 points and 10,931.36 points respectively, and initial support at 10,491.19 points. The next support rests at the upper zone of the indicated trading range at 11,195.46 points. The RSI shows an overbought level of 77.16%, evidencing the positive impact of the Fed's decisions on the Spanish spread. The upcoming Spanish bond auctions and Schnabel's speech will be crucial to determine the future direction. If the trend continues, we could see an upward extension, although Fibonacci projections suggest that the index may not exceed 11,906 points (161.80% of the original momentum).
In summary, the Fed's rate cut is positively influencing the Ibex 35, providing a favorable context for the Spanish index, along with other European and US indices, to approach its highs and experience a potential rally.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
IBEX35/EUROSTOXX50: Preparing for Imminent VolatilityEuropean stock markets, boosted by the ECB's recent meeting, have managed to ward off the fears that plagued markets in early September. Although the recent rebound has helped the indices to stay away from the August lows, it is not yet a definitive recovery. The declines at the beginning of the month have proved too deep to be considered a simple consolidation, suggesting that additional bouts of volatility may be ahead before a sustainable upswing. In this context, remaining calm, reducing exposure to the stock market if it is high, and being prepared for future buying opportunities is advisable.
On Friday, Spanish stock markets closed higher, with the IBEX 35 gaining 1.23%, reaching a new five-year high. The financial services, construction and technology sectors drove the rally. Inmobiliaria Colonial SA led the gains, while Bankinter and Redeia Corporación SA were among the losers.
It is crucial to maintain liquidity to take advantage of possible pullbacks, which will allow acquiring assets with a better risk-return ratio. Key supports to monitor include the 4,730 points of the EuroStoxx 50 and the 11,138 points of the IBEX 35. Looking at the IBEX 35 chart, there is solid support around 11,100 points. After overcoming double resistance last week, there is a possibility that the index will advance to new highs driven by volatility. The current RSI stands at 64.67%, suggesting that this upward momentum could continue, as long as previous fears do not affect its trajectory.
It is relevant to mention the EuroStoxx 50, as both indices have shown a high correlation recently. However, in the last week, their movements have been different, probably due to the practically null weighting of the EuroStoxx 50 in relation to companies in the Spanish index. The EuroStoxx 50 is moving in a sideways range near the strong trading zone of 4,843 points. With an RSI of 64.26%, this index could correct towards the lower indicated zone of 4,730 points.
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
IBEX 35 Index Overview | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
Trend |Time Frame Conductive | Daily Time Frame
- General Trend
- Measurement on Session
- Signpost
* Support & Resistance
* Trade Area | Focus & Motion Ahead
# Position & Risk Reward | 15 Minutes Time Frame
- Measurement on Session
* Retracement | 0.5 & 0.618
* Extension | 0.88 & 1
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
IBEX Elliott Wave Cycle from Early this Month is Mature and May Short Term Elliott Wave in NASDAQ:IBEX suggests decline to 10307.61 ended wave ((4)). The Index has turned higher in wave ((5)) but it still needs to break above wave ((3)) peak at 11469 to rule out a double correction. Internal subdivision of wave ((5)) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 10488.6 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 10308.9. Index then rallied higher in wave ((iii)) towards 10632 and wave ((iv)) dips ended at 10445.7. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 10687.7 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 2 ended at 10572.20.
Index has resumed higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 10714.4 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 10611.4. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 11151.2 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 11056.5. Final wave ((v)) ended at 11207.5 which completed wave 3. Index then pullback in wave 4 which ended at 11156.3. Expect the Index to extend higher a few more highs before ending wave 5 and it should then complete wave (1) in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave (2) to correct cycle from 8.5.2024 low in larger degree 3, 7, 11 swing before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 10307.6 low stays intact, expect dips to find buyers in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
IBEX35 the most bullish index in Europe 2024
The Madrid Stock Exchange has recently stood out as the most bullish in Europe in 2024, with the IBEX 35 up 11.5% so far this year. This growth has been driven by expectations of global interest rate cuts and optimism around corporate earnings, especially in the United States. Shares of Spanish companies such as Iberdrola and Inditex have reached record highs, with Inditex becoming the first Spanish company to surpass €150 billion in market capitalization.
Nvidia has also been a focus of attention, as the market expects the technology company to report its best quarterly results ever, highlighting its central role in the rise of artificial intelligence. This optimism has driven global indices such as the MSCI World and the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) to record highs.
Despite this positive environment, analysts maintain a cautious approach due to economic uncertainty in Europe and geopolitical volatility, warning that while rate cuts can boost markets, they can also generate volatility. Currently the index is looking for the highs again, after exiting the trading channel near the checkpoint around 11,072 points. RSI currently shows an oversold level of 65.36% so it is very likely that it will not be able to pierce the current high in the short term.
Ion Jauregui - Activtrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
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Ibex35: Will it maintain its momentum after Jackson Hole?The Ibex 35 has started the week strongly, rising 0.7% and reaching 11,150 points, consolidating its position as the most bullish index in Europe in 2024 with a year-to-date increase of 10.45%. Surpassing 11,000 points reinforces the bullish trend of the Spanish market, and today it has broken 11,150 points. The RSI is oversold at 63.15%, and the checkpoint (POC) has remained near 11,100 points. However, the focus is on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, which could influence financial markets, especially monetary policies and debt developments. This speech will be key in determining whether the Ibex 35 maintains its momentum or experiences a correction, with the possibility of the index piercing the sideways range at 11,195 points at the close.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
IBEX 35 loosing momentumLoosing bullish momentum, RSI crossing its 9 week MA to the downside, overlapping waves and on the upper side of the Bollinger and YTD AVWAP bands.
If 10800 level is lost, we could see a very bearish development (lower highs and lows, downside momentum accelerating, middle term trend lines being traspásese, etc.) with a PT around the 9800/9600 area
Spanish stock market looks ready for a sell-offThe Spanish Stock Market Index is facing significant pressure as Euro area inflation rose higher than expected. July's inflation figures showed a 2.6% annual increase, slightly above the previous month's 2.5%, matching May 2024's level. Despite the rise in inflation, the unemployment rate has only marginally increased from 6.4% to 6.5%, still holding multi-year lows not seen since at least 1995, when records began. This indicates that the labour market remains strong and could fuel inflation down the road.
Yesterday the IBEX 35 saw a sharp drop of approximately 1.75%, reflecting investor concerns. Additionally, the Spanish market is dealing with its own domestic issues. Today, the situation has become particularly interesting as the price appears to have triggered a large triangle pattern that has been forming over the last 93 days. We are now close to breaking below a critical support level at the July 9th low of 10,867. A break below this level would likely confirm the activation of the bearish pattern, with the trend expected to remain negative as long as the price stays below 10,952. This current market situation is of significant importance and should be closely monitored.
The triangle pattern suggests potential targets of 10,700, followed by 10,600, ultimately reaching the pattern target 10,533. While the price is unlikely to drop to the lowest target, the current setup allows for a favourable risk-to-reward ratio.
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Ibex 35: Potential of 15% in a Volatile MarketAmid global volatility, the consensus of market analysts show confidence in the Ibex 35, with only 8% of recommendations to sell, the lowest figure in two decades. Despite recent corrections, more than 58% of recommendations suggest buying, and the index has upside potential of 15%, according to Bloomberg and FactSet. The Ibex 35 reached 11,476 points in June this year, accumulating a rise of 11%, making it the second most bullish index in Europe, behind the Italian Ftse Mib. Although political uncertainties and the disappointing results of the major technology companies have affected global markets, these declines are seen as buying opportunities.
Among the best recommendations in the index are Sacyr, Logista, Puig, IAG and Acerinox. Sacyr leads with a dividend yield of 4.4% and a 2.4% increase in half-year net profit. Logista, at all-time highs, has a dividend yield of 7.6% and a record ebitda of 485 million euros is expected in 2024. Puig, a recent addition to the Ibex 35, has an upside of close to 20%.
Despite the current political situation in Spain and the high level of unemployment, Ibex 35 could reach between 11,875 and 12,000 points as long as it maintains the most consistent support in the area of 9,800 points and the supports above 10,000 points are not broken.
If we look at the chart, the current trading zone is located between 11,195.46 and 10,931.36. We have to see if the support at 10,825.94 points can hold and allow the Spanish differential to push upwards. On the other hand, the RSI is currently at 49.92% with no strong trading volume since the end of June where the strength in the market was reduced. On the other hand, the Check Point (POC) is located at 10,100 points, so it is quite easy that if the volatility of sellers increases, the market will pull back strongly.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst Activtrades
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
IBEX35 sails bearishThe Iberian spread closed yesterday down -1.30% marking the milestone of 1 month in decline. The best performing company was Repsol (BME:REP) which climbed +1.65% ending at 15.13 at the close. Merlin Properties SA (BME:MRL) closed up +0.48% at 10.50 and Sacyr (BME:SCYR) was up $0.42 at 3.34. The worst performers were Enagas (BME:ENAG) with -9.29% closing at 12.79, Acciona (BME:ANA) -6.55% at 105.60, ACS Actividades de Construcción y Servicios (BME:ACS) with -4.19% closing at 38.44. In short, the falling stocks outperformed the rising ones on the Madrid Stock Exchange.
Today, tourism data is published, which is expected to be positive for Spain in the summer season with 12% compared to the previous 8.3%, and industrial production data in several euro zone countries, including Spain, which is expected to be slightly worse. For the euro zone as a whole, things are not looking very different.
Focusing the eye on the chart, IBEX35 has formed an area of strong resistance at 11,384.44 points and the area of 11,159.06 is the second area of strong resistance, a possible Shoulder - Head - Shoulder figure has been generated, and seeing the monthly trend and economic data, it would not be unusual to see that the index seeks again this second area of resistance and plummets towards the lows of 10,837.43 points. On the other hand the shape of the bell is not overly clear given that it has a triple formation with the most traded price at the checkpoint at 11,326 points. And its second control price zones are located at the current price. The RSI is overbought at 60% so it would not be unusual to see a correction. In principle, it seems that the trading area for this summer can be framed between the first strong resistance and the area of lows.
Focusing the eye on the chart, IBEX35 has formed an area of strong resistance at 11,384.44 points and the area of 11,159.06 is the second area of strong resistance, a possible Shoulder - Head - Shoulder figure has been generated, and seeing the monthly trend and economic data, it would not be unusual to see that the index seeks again this second area of resistance and plummets towards the lows of 10,837.43 points. On the other hand the shape of the bell is not overly clear given that it has a triple formation with the most traded price at the checkpoint at 11,326 points. And its second control price zones are located at the current price. The RSI is overbought at 60% so it would not be unusual to see a correction. In principle, it seems that the trading area for this summer can be framed between the first strong resistance and the area of lows.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
