Uptrend continues?Open 3 positions or more for the two main targets with additional positions for a continuation. Move stops to protect positions once price has cleared them.
Good Luck!
ES35.F trade ideas
Long Spain after broken important resistance and bullish pin barUPDATE 5/5: Stopped out on both positions. Result: -2R
Two entries:
1. Buy limit half of 26/03 pin bar, s/l under horizontal support, t/p around highs on monthly chart, R:R 3,5:1
2. Buy stop top of 26/03 pin bar, s/l under horizontal support, t/p around highs on monthly chart, R:R 2:1
Let the euro QE roll...
España Challenging Sideways ResistanceWatch-out España traders, the IBEX is challenging the major key long term sideways resistance or ceiling. Typically, in sideways markets, we expect price to reverse to the downside. However, this time might be different, as the price test the level for sixth time. The latest test(March 2) was followed by a minor pullback and a bullish pin bar.
I would think twice before going short at that resistance for now. why? For the first time , the ECB is pumping money for free with its new asset purchase program. History and the FED have taught us what happens to equities when central banks go full throttle.
We might see a reactive correction but i advise waiting for a candlestick confirmation for such scenario and look only for limited downside potential.
A breakout above 11235 resistance with at least a weekly closing would confirm the bullish breakout. I wont suggest targets for this scenario as this idea is just a general opinion...
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Spain IBEX - Stuck and Complex
If the QE was meant to help peripherals, so far it s not working as planned (for Spain at least).
I keep this one on the radar - It is not driving but is a good metric to see if the plan is working or not.
IBEX - Spain - On cliff for a dive
The European QE is pending - It is largely in the media for a long while now.
I doubt equities would be trading where they are if they expected something great to come (this is speculative, i acknowledge).
IBEX is on a cliff that rejected up twice in weekly close...
The third attempt down may break the elastic this time and there is 25% free fall zone.
In any case: very pivotal supported zone that shall launch something rather soon.
My view: down.
Short 10% stop 11000... TP 8000.
IBEX 35 Spanish Index ( Daily )IBEX 35 Spanish Index ( Daily )
Bullish Pennant brake_out.
RSI at 65.
Spain index doesn't look promisingAfter a few channels are drawn, i though i see a potential right shoulder forming.
And the potential neckline is the channel support. Whatever it is, since Nov 2007 market top, the price has been in the current downtrend channel. The channel resistance at Aug 2014 makes the channel very very well.
Spain analysis - Weekly bearish, daily bullishI will set this chart on neutral because it isn't a trade signal. The daily chart gives me a buy signal (), like all other major european markets, but the weekly has a beautiful bearish picture at 11000, which is the most important area in this chart.
If the daily will give me a selling signal, I will short this, if not, well... I think it is due for a pullback and it will probably five a buy signal on the daily when the weekly reaches the Wave (well, hopefully).
I forgot to link related ideas, so if you are interested, here they are
* The evening star signal is confirmed or not depending on the platform you use. For example here, the red candle did not close below 50% of the blue candle, but on my platform it did. These things don't really matter in my opinion, you can bend the rules a bit, in the long run, it shouldn't affect trading performance.
SPAIN: Confluence short, or the art of patienceSecond rejection at the same area, after gun the shorts first - including mine- at 10,500.
Another try at 0.764 from 2010 highs to June 2012 lows, upper BB boundary again, and the same diverging momentum, produced a BE weekly candle, just like the one we saw at the end of January.
If will continue down or not, its up to the Blood Moon I guess. Strong support at 10,100-120 area and 9,800 as well. The trend is clearly up and the bottom IH&S has a roughly target above 11,500.
Remember that Spain is borrowing from the markets currently with a lower rate than USA. The fact that it's unemployment level is close to 30%, with the 24-34 ages touching 60%, I guess make the economy stable. Go figure the bankster world we live in...
Last but not least, the need to practice patience is clearly shown at the chart.
Update: Bullish Reversal; Bearish Targets | $IBEX35 $ESP35 $EURFriends,
Back on January 24th, we forecast a potential bearish target with a "far-fetched" qualifier, although we also provided two other prior examples where that proprietary geometric pattern unfolded - See this chart, as well as examples in the USDollar index and AUDUSD here:
CHANGE IN DIRECTION:
At this point though, we have to change our directional stance based on a BULLISH market reversal signal favoring further rallying in this index. While we remain cautious about further advance, the system is the plan. Hence, we will continue to plan the trade, and trade the plan.
STRUCTURES:
On a structural standpoint, 10549 offers the next probable resistance overhead. However, once surpassed, expect this level to convert to support as price might probably use that structure as a springboard to the new high target defined today as "TG-Hi = 1109 - 25 FEB 2014".
At that point, added forecast will require a review and further analysis of the chart, but the background that motivates our interest in the lower target defined earlier in the year as "TG-Lo = 7791 - 24 JAN 2014" is based on a proprietary geometric pattern we called "The Great White". Caveat here is that our predictive analysis and forecast are NOT based on price action, whereas our proprietary patterns (Great White, Janus, Deep Shark, Euclid) are price-based, hence less relevant to our way of analyzing the market. Nonetheless, some traders may be exclusively pattern traders, and on our side, we continue to discover, test and validate such patterns as well, out of curiosity.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO:
In case the bullish scenario would not play out (i.e.: further rallying and breaking above structure at 10549), we would like to bring the trader's attention to two other structural levels:
One rests at 9650, defined as the prior structure low. However, transgression of that level should not necessarily constitute a bullish abandonment, or herald a directional reversal. In fact, in our system, we would tolerate a reversal as low as the "Pink" 9506-to-9371 range. However, if and once price breaks below and closes below ("BBCB, as opposed to breaking above and closing above, or "BACA"), then we would be concerned bulls, and would seek ways to reverse tack.
OVERALL:
A BULLISH reversal confirmation occurred with a new bullish target at 11092. Further downside might exist, but that scenario does not currently apply to the directional signal just released by our prop strat system.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
New Target Low ... Eyeing 7791Here is a new target release for the IBEX35, eyeing 7791, setting the target quite low. Last time we made such a far-fetched predictive analysis, we hit the USDollar index on the nose (see that analysis here: on.fb.me). Also, another far-fetched call was on the #AUDUSD, where we gorged on 643 pips (see that analysis here: on.fb.me).
So, let's see whether we can nail that one too.
Cheers,
WAITING FOR LONGS ON IBEX-35(CFD)Waiting for a small correction 'till circled zone to entry long.
Lots of positive confluences in there: MM200, previous resistance, channel resistance.
Goal: Next top channel testing. Around 9800.
All you need to know about the spanish indexFirst i wan't to state that, as labeled in the chart, it's all about the monday open!
The ideea of the 5 wave formation came to me a few months ago It went beatifully. Now we have a possible abc, i say possible because we have to see if it will rally.
Now let's take an indepth look at the chart. The first wave starts from the bottom line of the broadening formation. From that point, the spanish stocks rallied sharply, together with Europe. The road to the 10000 psychological level took 5 months, forming a 5 wave formation.. You can see labeled the fibonacci percentages, which makes this chart even more beautiful and predictible. When the 10000 level was reached, a corrective move started in a flag formation, forming an abc (probable c). The flag was broken at a point, but right after that we had a shooting star which warned us things aren't looking good. Now we have a dragonfly doji which points to a reverseal. This long candle penetrated some very strong support levels (weekly support, daily support, fib supports and the flag bottom line) and closed above all of them. A look at the histogram points out that even though the price moved below point a, the histogram didn't go lower, meaning that the bears are losing power.
Now we have to wait for a strong open, which would be the entry signal. First target would be 10000
IBEX 35DO or DIE! Good indicator for short term market direction. If Spanish banks (look at SAN) can survive these days with no bigger corrections, EWP is already at attractive 4th wave EW levels.
Spain's Ibex 35 looking for a pullback.Spain's Ibex 35 is looking like it's starting a correction. The Williams%R gave a sell signal by breaking 20. Also, from previous high to current high there was a turn window using Lucas Series #'s. There is another Lucas Series # from June 2012 low to current highs that is signaling a turn window. With two turn windows pointing to the same area, the Ibex reached a 1.272 extension = level of confluence giving sign of a pullback.
I believe it could pullback to the 50% to 61.8% fib levels as support, a break below the 61.8 fib would not be good for the Ibex's current bull run.
$ESP35: Reached all targets - Eyeing significant resistanceAll 4xQuad forecast targets (TG-1 = 9465 and TG-2 = 9527) have been hit dead-on (See our Dead-On Hit List here: bit.ly)
At this point, 4xQuad is signaling a significant resistance level valued at 9711
David Alcindor
Head Trader
4xQuad, LLC
Denver, CO
USA
