UK100 trade ideas
FTSE 100 - index prepares for bumper run to 10kThis is a macro outlook into late 2024.
On the above 3-month chart price action has been trading under resistance since 1999. A significant development has now occurred. That resistance after 22 years has confirmed as support.
Isn’t there a recession coming?
Since the UK imposed economic sanctions on itself in 2016 (A world first believe?) there is a growing realisation that extended dependancy on external resources will mean accepting higher and higher costs for everyday goods and services. Much like the US, the UK is about to enter a period of internal investment as it seeks to rediscover why protectionism does not work. You would think with so many history graduates in parliament..
The Macro outlook for the FTSE 100 is fascinating. Many many stocks are oversold in the FTSE 100. Not all. But a great many are with little to no ideas published on them. Identifying this trend a couple of years ago, the ideas on Rolls Royce and Centrica were published (attached below), now up 100 and 200%, respectively. However you will notice such performance does not apply equally across the index. My belief or rather hours of study informs us selecting the correct stocks will outperform over the next 2 to 3 years. Already have begun to identify them.
The TA..
On the chart we have:
1) Macro higher lows forming an ascending triangle.
2) Price action printed the first macro higher high in October 2017.
3) Inverse head & shoulders pattern with confirmation and 10k target.
4) The 3-month hammer candle. 10 days until it closes. IF it closes as is, it will be the shot that starts the race.
Is it possible the index corrects and crashes as everyone suggests? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: Investment
Risk: 30-40% exposure, you don’t want to sit this one out.
Timeframe: Long between now and end of year.
Return: 30%
FTSE Retreats to Key Fibonacci LevelsAfter powering to all-time highs at the start of the month, the FTSE 100’s uptrend has started to falter with the index pulling back more than 300 points during the last two weeks. Let's explore the reasons behind this pullback and identify key levels where the index might find support.
Why is the FTSE Falling?
Rising Bond Yields:
Concerns about prolonged high global interest rates have driven bond yields higher, making bonds more attractive compared to stocks and putting downward pressure on the equity market.
Strong Sterling:
The British pound has surged to a 21-month high against the euro due to persistent inflation in the UK. Investors are speculating that the Bank of England will delay rate cuts longer than the European Central Bank. A stronger pound negatively impacts FTSE’s multinational companies.
Natural Market Cycles:
It's crucial to recognise that uptrends often experience periods of correction. These pullbacks are not necessarily the end of a trend but can present opportunities to enter the market at favourable risk/reward levels.
Key Levels to Watch
The FTSE’s pullback has brought it to some significant support levels that could potentially halt the decline if the long-term uptrend resumes:
50% Fibonacci Retracement (April Swing Low to May Swing High): The recent trend from April to May offers a smooth basis for Fibonacci retracements. The FTSE has now reached the 50% retracement level of this move, making it a critical point to monitor.
50-Day Simple Moving Average (50MA): This moving average coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level mentioned above, adding further weight to its importance as potential support.
February 2023 Highs: Before the breakout in April, the highs from February 2023 served as significant resistance. In an established uptrend, former resistance levels often become support as traders look to buy back in.
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (October 2023 Lows to May 2024 Highs): Fibonacci retracements can be taken from longer term trend legs and this is a prime example. A 38.2% retracement of the impressive run higher from October 2023 to May 2024 comes in just below the levels mentioned above and should be closely watched.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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FTSE-100 : ROUNDING TOP- The market has been registering higher highs and low since mid-April ; the mid-term trend was then bullish.
- As stated in our previous analysis, the market has successfully accelerated to a new historical high around 8,483pts.
Since then, with continuing disappointing economic developments regarding inflation, PMI and retail sales data, investors have been pushed to take some profits out.
This led to this technical situation where the market seems to have come to a state of exhaustion, highlighted by a rounding top pattern.
Both moving average are in bearish configuration following a downside cross.
The MACD indicator evolves inside its selling zone too.
- The short-term outlook is bearish for the market.
The rounding top pattern is seen as a bearish reversal configuration, especially when it occurs far in a bullish trend, at an all-time high level.
The market has just broken-out the 23.6% fibonacci level at 8,310pts and its next targets can be found around 8,200pts, 8,117pts and 8,030pts by extension.
Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at activTrades
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Ichimoku Watch: FTSE 100 Approaching Ichimoku Cloud Following UK inflation data earlier today, the FTSE 100 market index has continued to decline from its all-time high of 8,474 last week.
Technical Market
With the FTSE 100’s trend still firmly to the upside, the H4 timeframe is offering interesting price action at the moment.
Firstly, you will notice that as the index tested all-time highs, price action formed the head of a head and shoulders top pattern and recently drove through the pattern’s neckline (taken from the low of 8,406) to complete the formation. This has likely led to traders plotting the pattern’s profit objective at 8,330. This, on its own, suggests that the index could pull lower to test the pattern’s profit objective.
Secondly, price action has formed a possible bullish flag pattern (8,474-8,406). Price is now testing the pattern’s support line, and if this breaks, it will invalidate the flag pattern but strengthen the possibility that the index may reach the head and shoulders top pattern profit objective at 8,330. An alternative scenario to consider may also be that price continues to decline steadily within the bullish flag pattern’s boundaries until testing 8,330. That way, traders will likely look for price to breakout above the flag pattern’s boundary to help confirm bullish interest.
Finally, the Ichimoku Cloud (the difference between the Leading Span A and the Leading Span B) offers wide support, currently between 8,292 and 8,412, and holds the head and shoulders top pattern profit objective at 8,330. From the Ichimoku Indicator, you will also see that price is above the Lagging Span, which is a bearish signal, and the conversion line has recently crossed below the baseline, movement that is also considered bearish.
Price Direction?
The uptrend, the Ichimoku Cloud support area and the head-and-shoulders top pattern profit objective at 8,330 may be enough to drive buying within the Ichimoku Cloud support area if tested this week.
FTSE 100 Can 2.5X versus the GBP In Dollar terms.
We have analysed the FTSE100 #UKX the GBPUSD and UK Housing on a big time frame scale before.
Here we have the FTSE 100 and the UK companies which have pricing power
versus #Sterling which we know is heading to sub $1
As we have expectations of the #GBPUSD to target 0.71 in a head and shoulders target close to a 50% drop from current levels!
British citizens are living in a inflationary nightmare.
A potential lifeboat is investing their way out.
NOT SAVING .. as saving in a ever worthless #Pound is only compounding your loss of purchasing power.
Bank Of England Expected To Hold Rates At 16-Year HighThe Bank of England announces its latest interest rate decision on May 9th. While the central bank is not expected to alter interest rates, investors will be focusing on two key questions that they hope the accompanying report and press conference will answer:
• When will interest rates start to fall in 2024?
• Where does the Bank see inflation going this year?
March saw a notable dovish shift from the BoE, hinting at a potential future cut. This marked the first time in the current cycle that no members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a hike. In March, Bailey said it was reasonable for investors to bet on rate cuts this year.
The critical question is when the central bank will start cutting rates.
Market pricing suggests August, and the OECD report predicts the third quarter will be the most likely period, with rates expected at 3.75% by the end of 2025.
The UK now has to get up to speed with the changed expectations for interest rates, which can be summed up as higher for longer. Until recently, the Federal Reserve was expected to take the lead and cut interest rates this spring, with other central banks to follow. However, the Fed is now signaling that rate cuts are not on the horizon, and it ruled out a rate hike at its meeting on May 1st. The European Central Bank could be the first to cut rates at its June meeting as inflation continues to fall in the eurozone.
The UK inflation picture is better than that of the US, but not by much. It is still witnessing some of the "stickiness" in inflation that has troubled Fed policymakers. However, UK inflation at 3.2% is still below that of the US, where the latest CPI reading was 3.5%. As the OECD pointed out this week, the UK economy is weaker than the US, so monetary easing could be less problematic and help stimulate parts of the economy. Investors have been building up bets against the pound as conviction grows that the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates by the summer, ahead of its US counterpart
Speculation amongst currency traders regarding a fall in the sterling has reached a 16-month high, data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows. Meanwhile, according to State Street, one of the world's largest custodian banks, asset managers have turned significantly bearish on the pound since March last year.
The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI. Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.
TRADE IDEA: Sell FTSE 100 IndexPrice at time of publication: 8380. The index is in a high bullish momentum phase, while trading in an overbought range. Traders should consider this a short to medium term countertrend trade idea where the reward-to-risk is starting to favour sellers. My preference is horizontal trend lines however, it may be worthwhile recognizing the diagonal channels, where the upper boundary could soon act as a short-term resistance range. These are the key technical drivers: (1) The price is overextended vs medium term moving averages; (2) Current Short Term Technical Rating: Overbought; (3) Current Medium Term Technical Rating: Overbought; (4) The steep price trend is at risk of correcting, further supporting the potential for a countertrend sell. As always, traders could consider the following if/when the share approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time Stop: Thursday, 08 August 2024.
TRADING LEVELS:
Entry: above 8430
Target: 8180
Stop-loss: 8545
UK100: Retracement Likely Before Bullish ContinuationHello Everyone,
The UK100 has been displaying strong performance. It's possible we could witness a pullback to the weekly support level before resuming a bullish trend. An early sign of this could be the daily support holding firm. If it does, we can anticipate further upward movement!
TradeWithTheTrend3344
UK100 Analysis: Stock Market Optimistic Ahead of Bank of EnglandUK100 Analysis: Stock Market Optimistic Ahead of Bank of England News
On Monday, the UK observed a bank holiday for May Day, and on Tuesday, the stock market demonstrated accumulated optimism.
The FTSE index (UK100) today surpassed the 8300 mark. Additionally:
→ The opening occurred with a bullish gap;
→ On the daily chart of UK100, today the RSI indicator is in overbought territory, unseen since the beginning of 2023.
One of the significant drivers of bullish sentiments could be considered events on Thursday – at 14:00 GMT+3, news from the Bank of England is expected: market participants will learn about the decision on the interest rate, followed by a press conference.
As Econoday writes:
→ A decision to cut interest rates is unlikely at Thursday's meeting, with autumn being seen as the most probable period for a 0.25-point rate cut from the current level of 5.25 points.
→ Members of the rate-setting committee are concerned that inflation is slowing down too slowly. However, the trend is in the right direction, and the Bank of England has already stated that the 2 percent target does not necessarily need to be reached before interest rates are lowered.
Perhaps the anticipation of signals for monetary policy easing instils confidence in the bulls, but how sustainable can the current growth be?
As shown by the technical analysis of the UK100 chart:
→ The price is moving within a long-term ascending channel (shown in blue). Meanwhile, its upper boundary is around the price level of 8500, which could serve as resistance if market sentiment remains equally optimistic;
→ On the other hand, the price of UK100 is vulnerable to some correction. If it occurs, former resistance at 8200 may provide support. As indicated by the violet lines, successful tests of former resistance underscore the bullish nature of the market.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FTSE100 Will it reach 8213 points?The European trading day has started in a session of mixed sentiment on Friday. Investors are still digesting Apple's US corporate results and awaiting reports on unemployment ratios in Europe, with Spain and Italy being the highlights. In the afternoon, U.S. unemployment rates, non-farm payrolls and manufacturing production data (PMI) are expected to be released. At the opening the European indices as we said have traded unevenly, DAX opened with +0.2% up, the CAC40 and IBEX35 with -0.3% and -0.26% down respectively, and the FTSE 100 literally flat.
Looking at the chart, the FTSE100 index (Ticker AT: UK100) has been looking to break the highs barrier since it started a strong move on April 25, until it has topped three times on April 29 and 30 and today in the Asian pre-market. Today is not expected to be the day where the index will break out again. If we look at the trading volume bell, its formation is a double bell indicating two well marked prices and the current most traded one is in the 8,163 points zone slightly below the high of 8,213.55 points. Its second POC zone is well below at 8,050 points.
On April 30 there was an overbought RSI spike which led to an opposite overbought spike on May 1. The market today is on the verge of candy to see if it breaks that sequence of resistances today. Or else it falls back to the indicated zone. There is a good chance that a sharp correction will bring the index value back to the indicated price average today or early next week.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
