HSI might break out from triangleSee if HSI can break out from the yellow zone after today's close, if so Dec will be a nice month. Together with some potential policies coming our from CCP's confrences.
HSIF2025 trade ideas
$HSI turning 3M chart MACD flipIt is time folks! They held china down too long, starting into my NYSE:BABA calls, leaps of course. See you on the other side :)
HSI Bull caseSince early 90s HSI entered a multi decade long trend that lasted till 22', when it fell 49%.
Subsequently the market has consolidated at 38.2% of the multi-decade rise. A frequently seen 61.8% retracement from the peak.
The play here was to wait for the Chinese market to consolidate in this region ,build momentum and retest the prevailing trend.
More info is needed to precisely understand which step in the consolidation to breakout movement we are in.
A divergence in the PVTOsc and a break into its positive value shows that we are close.
A support on the blue downward trendline is what we are now looking for , as a last indicator for the next leg up retesting or potentially breaking in the prevailing trend.
In terms of sizing a position, anything below the blue trendline, especially below purple horizontal should be viewed as a ball underwater.
Heng Seng seeks rally from 61.8% fib level (7th time this year)This is purely observational, but today I noticed that Hang Seng futures have risen from a 61.8% Fibonacci level six times this year. And as the rallies have landed anywhere between 6.5% to nearly 50%, it is worth noting that it is trying to rally from it a seventh.
A 3-day bullish reversal pattern formed on Monday (morning star formation) and the daily RSI (2) was oversold on Friday. Bulls could seek dis back towards the 61.8% in anticipation of a leg higher to 20k or 20.5k over the near term.
MS
Hang Seng heaviness opens door to downside flush Hang Seng futures look heavy. Friday’s bearish engulfing candle has been followed by two consecutive declines, leaving the price teetering just above horizontal support at 20280.
With RSI (14) and MACD providing bearish signals on momentum, the inclination is to sell rallies in the near-term. It may also see a potential break of 20280 stick where so many other attempts have failed recently.
If we were to see futures break (and preferably close) below 20280, you could sell with a stop above the level for protection. The May 20 high of 19772 would be the initial trade target, especially with the 50-day moving average located just below.
If that level were to be broken, it opens the door to a potential deeper flush to 18500 with only minor support at 18945 located in between.
Good luck!
DS
HANG SENG Patience until December for a long term buy.Hang Seng (HSI1!) made a massive bullish break-out in September as it broke above the February 2021 Lower Highs trend-line, effectively ending its Bear Cycle. This month (October) saw it getting rejected not just on the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) but also on its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
This is a key rejection as in almost 30 years, every time the price got rejected on the 0.618 Fib, it recovered on the 3rd (1M) candle after. As a result, December will give a buy signal based on this historic price action, so have patience and take a multi-month buy then.
In most of those cases, the index rebounded to the previous High, so our Target will be 30975. Notice also that the 1M MACD is rising off a Bullish Cross. When formed below the 0.0 mark, this has also been a massive buy signal.
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Mag 7 Earnings - Something will Break (Ceiling or Floor?)797 stocks reporting earnings next week
Notables include
GOOGL
LLY
CAT
META
MSFT
COIN
AMZN
AAPL
XOM
CVX
MA
V
$15 trillion in market cap at play as the US markets are still very close to all-time highs with a melty-uppy vibe. I'm cautiously bullish and could certainly see the highs get blown off with strong earnings momentum dominating the sentiment. I could also see Mag 7 disappoint investors with "not enough growth" and any pullbacks on Mag 7 will certain drag on the entire market.
Survive next week, then it's onto the US Election, FED, Non-Farm Payroll. No big deal, it's just trading :)
Thanks for watching!!!
Hang Seng IndexMade an oath of silence on Twitter but I wanted to save this chart for myself to review in a couple years.
Hong Kong Bull market - will this time be different ?While waiting for the mass mainlanders to come back and shore up the market even higher, I am taking a back seat to further analyse the HSI chart so that my enthusiasm/passion/greed does not get over me.
We can see from chart that in Oct 2022, there was the first bull run which rally for 56% before tumbling down for a good two years. Then, in Jan 2024, investors were beaming with hope once more when it rally for 34% but it was too short lived. It went down for the next 3 months.
Now, this is the 3rd bull market ,never mind the volume is much much higher than the first 2. The more important question is will it be sustainable?
This is my 2cents from reading , analysing the various English and Chinese media, articles and talking to investors. I have said before , the property market is the biggest investment for the common folks, rich or middle income in China. It has always been the go to asset for wealth creation and accumulation for generations. It constitutes close to 30% of its GDP.
Despite the bankruptcy of many listed property developers, over supplies of houses , aging population, low fertility, low youth employment rate, increasing unsatisfaction with the government policies, ongoing scams, etc , I believe the CCP will be cracking their heads every night to resolve this problem. They cannot allow the problem to fester and already in a deflationary environment, the worst is to follow the shoes of Japan where it went to a dark period of 3 decades of zombies..............
It is said that people are not willing to spend money in China, be it food, travel, luxury goods, stock market or buying houses. So these slew of QE stimulus , rescue package (never mind the term used) is really to target the property sector MORE than the stock market, imo.
The default rates of people not able to pay off their current mortgage is increasing. There are now more properties being foreclosed and put up for auction. These are not properties seized by banks when companies become bankrupt as we often watched in movies but the common folks who no longer can service their monthly payment. And worse, these auction properties are adding on to the supplies woes of the property market.
Of course, there would always be a group of people who are happy with the ultra low mortgage rate, low downpayment, etc and buy the properties. But on a scale like China, we nee to talk numbers, volume and that is not happening and that keeps the government awake at night !
What else is happening ? On the chinese social media, we are seeing an increase of legal and illegal lenders peddling for sales ? They are selling loans to these group of people enticing with low rates by the banks/"related services to banks".
By injecting money into the stock market via lending money to the companies who pledge their company shares with the government and do shares buyback, this makes the largest shareholders happy, CEO happy and naturally push up the share price , making the retail and institutional players happy. Win win win for all.
Rightfully, like US and Japan, when people feel rich from making "easy money" off the stock market, they would spend more - on food, entertainment, travel, etc. This confidence spike is what the government wants and thus the timing cannot be better , launching the bazooka right after the Fed cut rates. Now, the curtain is raised and the global audience are watching and the government must continue to unleash its round 2, 3, 4,etc stimulus to further stoke up the market. Yes, it would send its deficit up the roof which it already has, but they do not have another better option.
Letting the market falls further, letting the property prices to keep on going down, more developers closing shop , creating a vicious cycle of pessimism and low confidence is very dangerous for the government.
Soon, we will have the October Politburo meeting which I believe they will take this opportunity to unleash more good news. When that happens, we can expect the stock market to rally even further, creating the cycle of hope, optimism and spending the government wants..............
What now after the rally ?Oh come on, just because you are enjoying the party does not mean the DJ is to continue spin the music and prop it up, ya ? He too needs a break before continuing the part 2 of the party.
So we can see from the chart that it has reached a resistance point , same as Jan 2023 and given the fierce rally over the last 1 week or so, it deserves a pull back. Not forgetting there are many who had been holding to their paper losses for the last few years may want to get out of the market , break even , make a small profit and thus there are selling here, which is expected.
To me, this pullback is another opportunity to accumulate the shares of the amazing company that I am already vested or would like to get my foot in after doing the research. The retracement to 20,104 is more unlikely imo, just a hunch , could be very wrong as this bull run is an unusual one. We have one more day before the mainlanders return to the market and looking at how the system crashed in the securities firm from opening of new accounts for new investors, it is a sign that the weak hands are entering the market.
So, I am studying the market and observing the trend first before taking action. No hurry.........
Please DYODD
HSI is going to the moon , maybe ?Rising tide move all boats , so we can see the much awaited news of China government releasing trillions of money into the housing market and encouraging banks to lend out even more money by cutting the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points.
It was euphoric yesterday with HSI rallying more than 4% and all tech shares going up to the moon, much to the delight of many who had hang their heads down for years to look for light at the end of the tunnel.
As usual, some analysts said it is still insufficient while others feel this could be a good catalyst for more promising stimulus to come. The important thing is HSI is now out of the bear market zone (20% from the low in Jan 2024). It went above the yellow line in August recently only to fall back again but this time it looks REAL as we have more than 1 week of strong green candles. I will not be adding at this juncture as this parabolic move is likely to cause the price action to consolidate around 19063 to current price before we see it push above the resistance level at 19735 and heads higher in the month of Oct/November when FED cut rates further.
FOMO, there will be a group of people who wants to scalp the market for short gains and flood the social media with all kinds of news to push the price higher. If you are not prepared to hold the shares for long, then it is not wise to chase the price up.
Wait for pull back , be patient....
HANG SENG Strong sell opportunity on recurring fractal.Hang Seng (HSI1!) closed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday for the first time in a month and confirmed the rejection of August 30. That was a Lower High within the established Channel Down pattern that started on the May 20 High.
This Channel Down is so far following a similar structure with the one that covered the entirety of 2023. The August 30 rejection was in fact also done on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level after a -17.30% decline.
If this sequence of events continue to follow the April 17 2023 rejection, we should be expecting the new Lower Low to be formed on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is exactly on that level at 15700.
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Hang Seng Index - are we out of the woods yet ?From the weekly chart, we can see we are still in a downtrend channel though the price has reached the upper channel. Will it breaks out and rally higher or ripe for another shorting opportunity ?
The property market continues to register a downtrend despite numerous measures that the government has introduced. China is now the highest savings rate in the world and the government is doing what it can to boost spending - short of issuing vouchers !
Retail sales is not encouraging from the recent figures and the negative performance from Commerce giant like Alibaba.
Will September be a game changer when US starts to cut interest rates ? Is it possible for smart money to move some of their funds to Asia, especially China ?
HANG SENG Sell Signal on the 1D MA200.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern and since the start of this week, it's sideways around the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) remains intact, we continue to be bearish within this pattern, targeting 16000 next (Support 1), expecting this to be the start of the new Bearish Leg.
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Hang Seng bulls eye retest of 18kWe'll admit that the Hang Seng does not have the most bullish of structures among APAC indices, but it continues to defy bears with a break of key support. And if sentiment for global indices picks up as we suspect, it could pave the way for another cheeky long for Hang Seng bulls.
The index has seen three failed attempts to break beneath 17500 since late June. Sure, we saw one daily close below it, but the move was mostly reversed on Monday. A bullish divergence is also forming on the daily RSI (2), hence the bias for another crack at 18k minimum - a break above which brings the June and July highs around 18,400 into focus.
Yet as the 4-hour chart shows prices paused at the weekly pivot point with RSI (2) overbought, we'd prefer to wait to see if prices retrace within Monday's range before seeking longs. This could help improve the reward to risk ratio for bulls whilst prices hold above last week's low, with 18,000 and 18,400 in focus for upside targets.
Where are we now in the Hong Kong Stock market ?Now, it is always clearer when we have a longer time frame to plot the chart and it seems more common sense why we should buy later and not earlier. Bear in mind that the chart is constantly plotting its price movements and in December 2022, that was the picture shown and one has to rely on this to make a decision.
Of course, if you are trading, then you would have a stop loss, probably at 16968 level. But if you are like me who see the longer term potential of the China market, then a paper loss of 20% is pretty common. And you would average down at 17193 recently when it presents another better buying opportunity.
19116 is an important support level and the price action has went down below it. The next support is at 17193 level and if this breaches, then it is possible that it may returns back to the bearish trend again. I doubt so when the National Team in China are seriously propping up the stock market with different measures.
If we take 14903 as the bottom price point, then the index has risen more than 32% , thus a 8-10% retracement is very common. It should be a buying opportunity for those who continues to believe in the cheap valuation of the Hong Kong stock market.
The only sectors that remains hazy is the property sectors which may take some years to stabilise(2025-2026). Banks are pretty stable not forgetting they are state owned so the government will ensure its viability. Tech stocks are what drives the China market in the coming years - robotics, AI, E-commerce, EV, semiconductors, etc which the Government continues to pour investments into it.
I remain bullish on the HK/China stock market and will continue to accumulate on weakness. Please DYODD
HANG SENG Strong buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been consolidating on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 4 straight days. Technically it is an attempt to form a bottom, which includes also the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the April 19 Higher Low.
The last time a trend both the 1D MA50 and 0.5 Fib was on December 28 2023 and 2 days later. As you can see that was a downtrend of 2 phases and after the 0.5 Fib/ 1D MA50 test, the price got rejected, starting the 2nd phase that extended up until the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, where the market bottomed.
As a result, it is highly likely to see a symmetrical mirror pattern. This time the 1.5 Fib ext is at 21600 and that is our medium-term Target.
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Buying Tech companies in ChinaIf buying individual tech company proves to be a hassle, costly and too much research work, going into a basket of them like this ETF may be the solution.
We are now in a resistance phase so wait patiently for it to break out with a bullish sign and then you can add some to your portfolio.
Avoid the mentality of always wanting to catch the bottom like buying at 6.50. Buying at this price make sense ONLY if it breaks above the resistance level else it can still goes into a consolidation phase for God knows how long time frame.
Thus, there is always 2 sides of the coin. Imagine waiting for months or years for it to break out , if it does break out , you would have incur the opportunity cost of not able to park the money into other places to make better returns. In retrospect, nobody knows the future and trying to time the market is nothing but a game of speculation.
IAMFinbot HK Stock Robotics Research HSI will up to 19200IAMFinbot HK Stock Robotics Research HSI will up to 19200
Hang Seng Index adjusted downward from the high of 19772 to the current level of 18006, initially see support, consolidation and then up to 19200
HSI:HSI
#HSI1! - Short Setup on 1H TFClear downtrend on Hang seng Index on 1H TF. Waiting for a retracement to 0.382 Fib (18638) to trigger my short. Keeping stoploss above previous LH (18977). TP's mentioned in the chart. Good Luck.
Hang Seng Index: Home Stretch 🏁The HSI has risen slightly since Friday, which we interpret as part of the internal substructure of the turquoise wave 4. We therefore expect further sell-offs. However, it is not far to our turquoise Target Zone between 18,341 and 17,899 points. Within this range, the index should place the low and turn upwards. Subsequently, a determined rise above the resistance at 19,772 points is on the agenda, which completes the magenta-colored wave (1). Accordingly, long positions could be opened within the Zone, with stops placed around 1% below the lower edge. Should the price fall significantly below the lower edge, this will set in motion our 38% probable alternative scenario, which implies further setbacks with the magenta wave alt.(ii).
HSI (hang seng index)It seems HSI will prepare for a bullish trend.
With technical analysis and checking the wave structure of the chart, the corrections ahead of it will probably be a buying opportunity
The reduction target is 16,500According to the Butterfly pattern, the Fibo perfectly converges the decline at the target of 16500. We also go down the channel where the lower border of the channel will be. All 3 parameters should be added together. We should reach it by October, there will be a great point for going to long.
