ICF1! trade ideas
Coffee perfectly placed for rebuying Taking support at daily kijunsen which coincide with 50% retracement of current rally, you would never like to miss a buy. In a bull run RSI at 50 needs to give support and it almost kissed that level. Re buying here can provide quick profits towards 100 and recent high. Fundamentally, Brazilian Real rallied big after we spotted bottom against USD at 4.10 . Coffee supplies still abundant.
Coffe fundamental analysis-The strong increase in coffee prices is due to the strengthening of BRL and the fear of frost
-The Brazilian hurricane delayed harvest, which could lead to a deterioration in crop quality
-Coffee consumption has risen to historic highs, but it is not yet visible at coffee bars
-Farmers receive only 10% of the final consumer price, so they don't get too much from growing demand
-In contrast, large coffee makers such as Nestle or Starbucks generate huge profits
-This year, the International Coffee Organization ( ICO ) reduced the surplus by 7.5% to 3.4 million bags.
-From the market situation we can see that long positions increased while short positions decreased
-Coffe stocks in American ports fell, a similar situation in 2013 followed by a strong coffee exchange rally
-Farmers receive only 10% of the wholesale price of coffee . Current low prices may cause some South American farmers to collapse. In the long run, this can support a rise in coffee prices.
-After several months of coffee reserves in American ports, this may remind us of the situation in 2013 and 2014.
-I set my first tp at 120, second at 125, i show only my second tp at my chart, but I think you can set to 150 or more.
Looking at topping formation in USD/BRL, Coffee seems to explodeWhile USD/BRL short term indicators giving clear signal of correction to downside, Coffee touches its horizontal support. Trading at dirt cheap price and taking support, price seems to explode upside for quick trade opportunity. Brazilian real seems to get strength after falling as low as 4.12 against USD yesterday, which will push coffee prices up. Technically areas to watch are 91.20 & 94. Near 91.20, 20sma coincide with daily kijunsen giving tough resistance since many days. once crossed focus will shift 94 to 95 region(horizontal resistance confluence with 50sma) .
Coffee - One last push down before the up moveI think we will see one more leg down to 90 region before the next leg up to 110 region.
I have started building positions already in coffee. If 94 holds then good chance this could be the bottom but my gut is saying there is still one more push down to 90/89.
Lets keep an eye out on this weekly close.
Cheers
Coffee Price Symmetry, LONGA huge symmetrical pattern on the 6-month candlebar scale suggests that this is particular price vicinity where a reversal to higher ground may be warranted. Admittedly, the half year time scale is quite broad. However, the weekly chart shows candle pattern reversal in progress right now.
Coffee Futures Take A Tumble On the weekly chart price has broken through support at the 102 and broken through the current level of support of around 89. As long as coffee continues its current descent, look for its next price of 86.15 approximate keeping in mind any pullbacks to support or trading ranges. If 86 is taken out prices could tumble to around 78.
Cyclical sell pattern on Coffee. Long term short opportunity.This is a pattern that is being repeated over and over again though the decades. Coffee reaches a peak within 280 - 340 on a parabolic rise, then starts to decline less aggressively on Lower Highs, and bottoms within 42.00 - 50.45. That's Coffee's market cycle and since 1974 we've had three, currently being near the end of the third, as we are just before the final aggressive bearish leg
For those who are willing to short the market, there is a roughly 45% profit opportunity on a 2 year horizon until it bottom near 50.45 again.
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High Probability Setup on Coffee with Volume ProfilePlease note Swing or Trend trading on Futures product may require maintaining position beyond Futures Contract expiration.
www.latimes.com
An older articles but relevant as there are 1-2 years price lag due to the natural of supply and demand of coffee global supply chain.
thecoffee.blog
US Coffee Long Position Idea - Opinion KC1!Hi there. This is a recent analysis for an undervalued commodity which is US Coffee KC1!. As you see from the weekly chart Coffee price reached the bottom bollinger band, after this price movement it is expected to bounce again for the median of 20 weeks of bollinger at targets the price of 101,5$. This signal is also confirmed from RSI which is at oversold price level of 40. +DI from ADX is also at oversold level which is going to change over time and give a solid buy signal. This bounce might be helped from the highly demand in this specific commodity which is beloved worldwide.
**This is not an investment advice, it is only for educational purpose**
Invest with safety.
