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Arabica Coffee FuturesAA

Arabica Coffee Futures

376.85USD / 60KGMD
+1.15+0.31%
Last update at Jul 17, 20:58 GMT
USD / 60KGM
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ICF1! trade ideas

Coffee: Boom. Roasted!This is an excerpt from the Parallax Weekly premium report originally published July 15, 2019. "The net-positioning in coffee has surged, and the percentile metric is not suggesting it’s extremely overdone even though the one-year z-score is well above 2. The problem now is that coffee prices have declined from $116 to $106 with net-longs still in charge. There is uncertainty surrounding frost that effected the Brazilian crop. Contingent on crop damage estimates, record production expectations into 2020 and price/net-positioning divergences, the bearish case for coffee @ 96 is created."
ICEUS:KC1!
by TheMacroStrategist
2
Cyclical sell pattern on Coffee. Long term short opportunity.This is a pattern that is being repeated over and over again though the decades. Coffee reaches a peak within 280 - 340 on a parabolic rise, then starts to decline less aggressively on Lower Highs, and bottoms within 42.00 - 50.45. That's Coffee's market cycle and since 1974 we've had three, currently being near the end of the third, as we are just before the final aggressive bearish leg For those who are willing to short the market, there is a roughly 45% profit opportunity on a 2 year horizon until it bottom near 50.45 again. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
IShort
by InvestingScope
1
Coffe fundamental analysis-The strong increase in coffee prices is due to the strengthening of BRL and the fear of frost -The Brazilian hurricane delayed harvest, which could lead to a deterioration in crop quality -Coffee consumption has risen to historic highs, but it is not yet visible at coffee bars -Farmers receive only 10% of the final consumer price, so they don't get too much from growing demand -In contrast, large coffee makers such as Nestle or Starbucks generate huge profits -This year, the International Coffee Organization ( ICO ) reduced the surplus by 7.5% to 3.4 million bags. -From the market situation we can see that long positions increased while short positions decreased -Coffe stocks in American ports fell, a similar situation in 2013 followed by a strong coffee exchange rally -Farmers receive only 10% of the wholesale price of coffee . Current low prices may cause some South American farmers to collapse. In the long run, this can support a rise in coffee prices. -After several months of coffee reserves in American ports, this may remind us of the situation in 2013 and 2014. -I set my first tp at 120, second at 125, i show only my second tp at my chart, but I think you can set to 150 or more.
ILong
by LszlRakonczai
4
Looking at topping formation in USD/BRL, Coffee seems to explodeWhile USD/BRL short term indicators giving clear signal of correction to downside, Coffee touches its horizontal support. Trading at dirt cheap price and taking support, price seems to explode upside for quick trade opportunity. Brazilian real seems to get strength after falling as low as 4.12 against USD yesterday, which will push coffee prices up. Technically areas to watch are 91.20 & 94. Near 91.20, 20sma coincide with daily kijunsen giving tough resistance since many days. once crossed focus will shift 94 to 95 region(horizontal resistance confluence with 50sma) .
ILong
by Bitbloxx