VSCO good risk reward hereCrazy rally and a crazier pullback, and we are here now.
Good value zone to go long, very good risk to reward, can be 4x but need lots of patience
VSCO trade ideas
VSCO/USD – 30-Min Long Trade Setup !📌 🚀
🔹 Asset: VSCO (Victoria's Secret & Co.)
🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart
🔹 Setup Type: Bullish Reversal Trade
📌 Trade Plan (Long Position)
✅ Entry Zone: Above $22.21 (Breakout Confirmation)
✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Below $21.19 (Invalidation Level)
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
📌 TP1: $23.55 (First Resistance Level)
📌 TP2: $25.31 (Extended Bullish Move)
📊 Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation
📉 Risk (SL Distance): $22.21 - $21.19 = $1.02 risk per share
📈 Reward to TP1: $23.55 - $22.21 = $1.34 (1:1.3 R/R)
📈 Reward to TP2: $25.31 - $22.21 = $3.10 (1:3 R/R)
🔍 Technical Analysis & Strategy
📌 Downtrend Breakout: Price has broken a falling trendline, signaling a bullish reversal.
📌 Support Rejection: The price bounced off $21.19 support, showing buyer strength.
📌 Volume Confirmation Needed: Ensure high buying volume when price holds above $22.21 to confirm bullish momentum.
📌 Momentum Shift Expected: If price remains above $22.21, it could push toward $23.55, and further to $25.31.
📊 Key Support & Resistance Levels
🟢 $21.19 – Stop-Loss / Support Level
🟡 $22.21 – Breakout Level / Long Entry
🔴 $23.55 – First Resistance / TP1
🔴 $25.31 – Final Target / TP2
📉 Trade Execution & Risk Management
📊 Volume Confirmation: Ensure high buying volume above $22.21 before entering.
📉 Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to entry ($22.21) after TP1 ($23.55) is hit.
💰 Partial Profit Booking Strategy:
✔ Take 50% profits at $23.55, let the rest run toward $25.31.
✔ Adjust Stop-Loss to Break-even ($22.21) after TP1 is reached.
⚠️ Fake Breakout Risk
❌ If the price fails to hold above $22.21 and drops back, exit early to avoid losses.
❌ Wait for a strong bullish candle close above $22.21 before entering aggressively.
🚀 Final Thoughts
✔ Bullish Setup – Bouncing from $21.19 support suggests a potential reversal.
✔ Momentum Shift Possible – Watch for volume confirmation.
✔ Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio – 1:1.3 to TP1, 1:3 to TP2.
💡 Stick to the plan, manage risk, and trade smart! 🚀📈
🔗
#StockMarket 📉 #VSCO 📊 #TradingNews 📰 #MarketUpdate 🔥 #Investing 💰 #Trading 📈 #Finance 💵 #ProfittoPath 🚀 #SwingTrading 🔄 #DayTrading ⚡ #StockTrader 💸 #TechnicalAnalysis 📉 #EconomicNews 🏛️ #FinancialFreedom 💡 #MarketTrends 📊 #StockAlerts 🔔 #TradeSmart 🤓 #Bullish 🐂 #RiskManagement ⚠️ #TradingCommunity 🤝
VSCO to $37.50My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when:
* Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones
* Money flow spikes above it's Bollinger Bands
* Price at Fibonacci levels
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price in buying zone at 100 period channel
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
Money flow momentum is spiked negative and under bottom of Bollinger Band
Price at or near 2.618 Fibonacci level
Entry at $31
Target is $37.50 or channel top
Victoria's Secret (VSCO) AnalysisCompany Overview: Victoria's Secret NYSE:VSCO is undergoing a strategic transformation aimed at revitalizing its brand and capturing a larger share of the lingerie and intimate apparel market. The company is leveraging new partnerships, focusing on digital expansion, and embracing inclusivity to appeal to a broader customer base.
Key Developments:
Partnership with Amazon:
Victoria's Secret's collaboration with Amazon represents a significant move to expand its digital footprint. By listing products on one of the world's largest e-commerce platforms, the company gains access to Amazon's vast customer base, potentially driving substantial online sales growth.
This partnership enables Victoria's Secret to reach new customers who prefer online shopping, aligning with broader retail trends where e-commerce continues to take a larger share of sales.
Brand Transformation and Inclusivity:
The company is undergoing a brand overhaul, focusing on inclusivity and diversity. By showcasing a wider range of body types and promoting a more inclusive brand image, Victoria's Secret aims to reconnect with a broader audience, particularly Gen Z and Millennial consumers who value representation and authenticity.
This strategic shift is expected to enhance the brand's market appeal, improve customer perception, and potentially boost sales and market share.
International Expansion:
Victoria's Secret is targeting high-growth international markets such as China and India, where demand for premium and luxury lingerie is on the rise. The expansion into these regions is a strategic effort to tap into new revenue streams and capitalize on growing consumer purchasing power.
Establishing a stronger presence in these markets positions the company to benefit from increasing global demand for premium intimate apparel.
New Leadership Driving Transformation:
With new industry veterans in key leadership roles, including a CEO experienced in retail transformation, Victoria's Secret is set for accelerated growth. The revamped leadership team is focusing on strategic initiatives aimed at revitalizing the brand, enhancing customer experience, and driving financial performance.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on VSCO above the $27.00-$28.00 range, as the company's strategic initiatives and renewed focus on inclusivity are expected to drive growth and market expansion. Upside Potential: Our price target for Victoria's Secret is set at $45.00-$46.00, reflecting potential gains from the Amazon partnership, brand transformation efforts, and international expansion strategy.
🚀 VSCO—Reinventing the Brand and Expanding Horizons! #RetailTransformation #EcommerceGrowth #InclusivityInFashion
VSCO: Bear Case ScenarioMy bear case scenario for VSCO has the stock dropping to about $5 before heading higher. I will say current price is finding some support (horizontal green dotted line) which if it holds can cause a wedge to form sending us higher.
That being said, I dont think the drop is done. If you are going to buy at these levels it is not a bad idea, but dont go all in and have some cash set aside to continue to DCA.
Victoria's Secret Faces 30% Plunge as Turnaround Efforts StumbleVictoria’s Secret & Co., ( NYSE:VSCO ) experienced a staggering 30% drop in premarket trading on Thursday, sending shockwaves through the market as the lingerie giant's full-year sales outlook disappointed analysts and underscored its ongoing struggle for relevance.
The company's projection of $6 billion in net sales for the year fell short of expectations, signaling challenges in connecting with consumers amid changing trends. JP Morgan analyst Matthew Boss downgraded the stock to underweight, citing unmet sales improvement promises.
Despite initiatives such as a revamped fashion show and expanded apparel offerings, Victoria’s Secret ( NYSE:VSCO ) has failed to reverse its declining sales. Comparable sales fell by 6% in the crucial holiday quarter, despite better-than-expected profitability driven by enhanced inventory management.
While the company reported strong international sales growth of approximately 24%, this segment remains a small fraction of its overall business. Chief Financial Officer TJ Johnson highlighted North American sales as the primary challenge, attributing it to aggressive promotions and intense competition, particularly in the underwear category.
Chief Executive Officer Martin Waters acknowledged the need for continued promotional activity in the current quarter, particularly in areas where Victoria’s Secret ( NYSE:VSCO ) struggles to gain market share. Analysts echoed concerns about management execution, with BMO analyst Simeon Siegel lowering the price target amid skepticism about the company's turnaround efforts.
The stock's 26% decline over the past year, coupled with the record-setting premarket plunge, reflects mounting uncertainty about Victoria’s Secret's future. As the company grapples with shifting consumer preferences and intensifying competition, investors await evidence of successful execution to restore confidence in its prospects.
In conclusion, Victoria's Secret ( NYSE:VSCO ) faces significant challenges as it strives to regain its footing in the lingerie market. With sales falling short of expectations and investor confidence waning, the company must demonstrate effective strategies to adapt to evolving consumer demands and revitalize its brand image.
$VSCO making it's next leg higher in an on-schedule extension -NYSE:VSCO is up 11% since 01/24/2024 after moving out of a longer-term bullish retracement. The price action has remained strong, triggering the sale of the first half of our VSCO inventory at $27.00 flat -
If the DXY continues to leg lower we could see another definitive risk on period in equities, theoretically giving VSCO the catalysts to achieve our target 2 profit level of $29.59/share before reaching parabolic phase.
I'm writing this 1/31/2024 - 4 hours prior to the FOMC, If the price action trades flat on the day (1/31/2024) and opens lower on 2/1/2024 we will consider managing that risk of reversal and potentially close out the rest of our VSCO inventory in the money before surrendering any unrealized gains.
( NONE of the information in this post should be construed as investment advice )
Short VSCO* Got bid UP in late November, ahead of (then after) a bigger LOSS than expected at Earnings.
* Churned for 1 month up here (between $25 and $29)
* Finally broke down BELOW support at 25.
* "2 down month in force" according to Strat
* Technically, it's a pretty strong double top at $29 visible on this daily chart.
IF this stock holds BELOW 25, then I would like to see this drop to $20 by March, which I think is VERY doable.
Short on Victoria's Secret To begin, I am not a Seasoned Trader; I use this blog for:
1. Record keeping; &
2. Formalizing my thoughts
a. If I can't explain simply here, I shldn't engage
To begin, my Rules of Engagement ( RoE ) to identify an upside of +3 to 1 Risk to Reward ( “R/R” ).
• Asset | VSCO ( Victoria Secret )
• Type | Equity
• Position | Short
• Entry | $ 39.52
• Stop Loss ( SL ) | $ 41.11
• Target | $ 30.32
• Exp. Time Horizon | ~1 – 2 Wk’s
• Allocation | 2.5%
• R/R | 3.60 – 5.06
To begin, I will highlight the reasons why I am apprehensive about the trade ( the Con’s ) & finish up with the reasons why I’m interested in the position ( the Pro’s ). The issues / thoughts that make me uneasy ( the Con’s ) are:
• Irregular nature of the current market
o We are in a “Bear Market Rally”. Although, they always come to an end & will proceed lower, picking when is almost impossible.
• Sentiment
o Although the UofM sentiment is low, it is rising.
• FedWatch Tool
o The FedWatch tool only prices a 25 bp rate increase; that would be their first 25 bp increase in many reiterations but that’s what the market is saying.
• Share Repurchase Program
o They authorized the repurchase of up to $250 million of the Company’s common stock will be made in the open market, subject to market conditions and other factors; this year ( 2023 ).
o They could buy me out.
• PMI’s
o ISM New Orders #’s for Apparel are 0 ( i.e. not really falling “just yet” )
o These #’s will be updated the day before the Fed Meeting this Wednesday.
Now, the reasons I am interested in this position ( the Pro’s ):
• Sentiment ( cont. )
o As mentioned above, UofM Sentiment is rising albeit
• PMI’s
o ISM #’s for Apparel are within the middle of the range of “below 50”.
• Retail Sales
o I don’t see much correlation with these against VSCO; something to mention.
• Employment
o The Employment Situation in the US is favorable for employee’s. I could go through ALL of the employment metrics albeit I will say Initial Jobless Claims is the most volatile & while it “was” rising, it re-started it’s decline.
o Why do I care about this? Because this trade has more to do with the Federal Reserve decision & while Inflation is falling, Oil is rising ( albeit should not be with the recent Inventory #’s coming in ) meaning the Fed’s Inflation concern is still worse than it’s employment one; this means, a 50 bp rise is “likely”
To summarize, this Trade has A LOT to do with the Fed meeting this Wednesday. I believe they will raise interest rates by 50 bp’s but the FedWatch tool has it at 25 bp’s.
Financial Disclaimer | To reiterate, I’m not a Financial Advisor. If you engage based on the contents herein, you will lose money. If you interpret that mean by doing the opposite you will make money, that’s incorrect; you will also lose money.
Thanks for your time; I hope you have a lovely day.
A Investor Story That Nobody Heard AboutThis is a fictionalized story about a lady who enjoyed great success throughout her life, investing in the stock market using a simple “Buy and Hold” approach. This article not only tells us how and why she succeeded but how you too can easily master and exploit this truly amazing strategy .
Many of us have known or at least heard about someone like Aunt Betsey (if you dont know its ok) She was a kind, good natured person of somewhat eccentric character who, for reasons best known to herself, had never married or entered into any kind of committed relationship. She lived her life alone, comfortably but modestly. When she retired at the mandatory age of 65, she owned a 2 bedroom apartment in what had become a fashionable inner suburb plus a significant portfolio of shares in a dozen or so “substantial” companies.
Betsey simply saved some of her wages each week and every few years, when her bank account had built up to a sizable amount, went out and bought another parcel of shares in a company of her choosing.
Betsey never sold any of her shares. She simply filled them away with any correspondence under “S” in the small filling cabinet that stood beside a well-crafted oak writing desk in her fussy living room.
When dividend cheques arrived she deposited them into her savings account which in the course of time found their way back into further share purchases.
Betsey didn’t really know much about the share market, in fact she wasn’t even really interested in it. Her sole motivation for this lifelong habit was that her father had once told her that putting her surplus money into shares was a prudent thing to do. One of the qualities that Betsey valued highly was prudence.
When it came time to buy another share parcel, she simply browsed through a couple of stock market magazines during her lunch break at one of the news agencies that provided her long term employment. She jotted down the names of any shares that caught her attention in the small notebook she always carried in her handbag. Most of the stock market jargon in the magazine went way above her head, but that didn’t really faze Betsey. Her final solitary selection on each occasion was made after a judicious reading of the tea leaves at the completion of her evening meal.
Betsey passed away at the respectable age of 87, bequeathing a worthwhile inheritance to several nieces and nephews together with a substantial sum to a long favored charity.
The accountant who helped finalise her affairs was impressed by Betsey’s financial achievements. He commented to the executor of the estate that she had done far better than if she had just left her money sitting in her bank savings account.
Like the accountant, a casual observer may have concluded that Betsy had a knack for successful stock picking or if s/he had known the real truth, that reading tea leaves did in fact have some scientific basis to it after all. If nothing else, Betsey’s efforts surely proved the wisdom of having a well balanced portfolio.
Sadly, none of these things are true, although reading tea leaves are probably just as good an indicator for stock picking as input from the majority of expert or professional advisors. A handful of professionals do over time do better than random, while others do far worse. Numerous studies have shown, time and again, that the net results of professional advisers are about the same as tossing a coin.
Another thing that may have attributed to Betsey’s success was her market timing. Her entry signal that triggered a stock purchase occurred only when her bank account had reached a certain level.
By being totally oblivious to what the markets were doing she inadvertently insulated herself from the generally losing game of trying to pick the tops and bottoms that both amateurs and professionals tend to get caught up in.
Many people, who think they understand randomness, are often very surprised by the way it often pans out in practice.
A typical response to encountering a proven random result for the first time is “I didn’t think that luck could be responsible for such a wide range of outcomes” . For example it would have been perfectly reasonable for Aunt Betsey to have finished up with a portfolio of 9 losing stocks and 3 winners with just one of those winners responsible for nearly all her profits. If that is so, people will then often ask how one goes about picking these big winners. The answer is you can’t. It is just a matter of luck. Many however, struggle to accept that explanation and attempt to attribute other supposedly rational causes to essentially random events and outcomes.
There is a mathematical law in statistics known as the Law of Large Numbers. This law is frequently broken, not just in financial markets but in many other areas of life where statistics are used or quoted in an attempt to make sense of numerical data. The breaking of this law leads to the heinous Crime of Small Samples, committed frequently by traders and investors. In simple terms it means attempting to draw conclusions from inadequate sized data samples. This in turn leads to misleading or incorrect conclusions.
Aunt Betsey’s 12 stocks are a very small sample indeed and no explanation, other than a run of good luck, could be rationally drawn from her results.
For every person like Betsy who did well, there is another untold story about someone who would have been better off simply leaving their money in the bank.
Nobody tells these stories because nobody wants to hear about those who lose. This results is a steady source of “good news” informational bias which is passed on ad nauseam by market professionals and others.
This leads to people developing unrealistic beliefs, hopes and aspirations.
