How to Trade Crude Oil: Trading StrategiesHow to Trade Crude Oil: Trading Strategies
Learning how to trade crude oil requires a nuanced understanding of its fundamental aspects, instruments, and trading strategies. This comprehensive article offers insights into the critical elements that affect crude oil prices, the range of instruments available for trading, and specific strategies traders use in this market.
The Basics of Crude Oil
Crude oil, often referred to as "black gold," is a fossil fuel derived from the remains of ancient organic matter. It serves as a crucial raw material for various industries, including transportation, chemicals, and manufacturing.
Two primary types of crude oil traded on global markets are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude. WTI is primarily sourced from the United States and is known for its high quality and low sulphur content. On the other hand, Brent Crude originates mainly from the North Sea and serves as an international pricing benchmark.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which includes members like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela, plays a pivotal role in determining global oil supply. By adjusting production levels, OPEC influences crude oil prices significantly. Additionally, other countries like Russia and the United States contribute to the world's oil supply, further affecting market dynamics.
What Time Does the Oil Market Open?
Like forex markets, crude oil trading hours are nearly 24/5. They’re typically highly liquid and offer traders multiple opportunities across a given day. For example, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) opens for trading from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon, with a brief daily trading break.
Activity is most intense during the US session, which runs from 9:00 AM to 17:00 PM EST, and the European session, from 2:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST. These periods coincide with peak market activity and are generally the most volatile, with the overlap between the US and European sessions (between 9:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST) offering the greatest volatility and trading activity.
Factors Affecting Crude Oil Trading
In oil trading, economics is a fundamental aspect that traders need to grasp to make educated decisions. Several factors drive the price of crude oil, and here are some of the most significant:
- Supply and Demand: At its core, the price of crude oil is determined by how much of it is available (supply) versus how much is wanted (demand). An oversupply can depress prices, while high demand can cause prices to spike.
- Geopolitical Events: Conflicts, wars, and diplomatic tensions in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains, affecting prices. For instance, sanctions on Iran or instability in Venezuela can push prices higher.
- Currency Fluctuations: Oil prices are generally quoted in US dollars. A strong dollar can make oil more expensive for countries using other currencies, thereby affecting demand.
- Seasonal Changes: During winter, demand for heating oil can rise, pushing crude oil prices up. Conversely, a mild winter might result in lower demand and prices.
- Technological Advances: Innovations in extraction methods, such as fracking, can alter the supply landscape, making it easier to extract oil and thereby affecting prices.
- OPEC Decisions: As previously mentioned, OPEC has a significant influence on oil prices. Their production quotas can tighten or flood the market, causing price swings.
- Economic Indicators: Data like unemployment rates, manufacturing output, and interest rates can indicate the health of an economy, which in turn can affect oil consumption and prices.
- Environmental Policies: Increasing regulations and policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting renewable energy sources can impact the demand and supply of crude oil, thereby influencing prices.
- Natural Disasters: Events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural disasters can disrupt oil production and supply chains, leading to fluctuations in crude oil prices.
- Global Economic Growth: The overall growth of the global economy plays a critical role in crude oil demand. Economic booms often lead to higher energy consumption, driving up oil prices, while economic slowdowns can reduce demand and lower prices.
How Is Crude Oil Traded?
When learning how to trade oil, traders have a variety of instruments to choose from.
CFDs
Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are popular instruments when trading crude. CFDs are used by traders to speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset. Essentially, a CFD is a contract between a trader and a broker to exchange the difference in price from the point the position is opened to when it is closed. One of the key benefits is the use of leverage, which means traders can control a larger position with a smaller initial investment, amplifying both potential returns and losses.
Margin requirements vary by broker but are typically lower for CFDs on oil compared to some other instruments. This makes it appealing for crude oil day trading strategies, where traders aim to capitalise on short-term price movements. However, managing risk effectively is crucial, as the leveraged nature of CFDs can result in significant losses if the market moves against you.
At FXOpen, we offer both CFDs on WTI Crude oil and Brent Crude. Head over there to explore a world of trading tools and other assets beyond crude oil.
Futures
Futures contracts are another well-established avenue for trading crude oil. Unlike CFDs, futures are standardised agreements to buy or sell a specific quantity of oil at a predetermined price at a set date in the future. They are traded on regulated exchanges, providing an added layer of transparency and security.
Spot Market
In spot trading, one buys or sells crude oil and takes immediate delivery and ownership. Unlike futures and CFDs, there's no leverage in spot trading, making it a less risky option. However, the absence of leverage requires a higher initial investment. While retail traders often avoid spot trading due to storage and transportation challenges, it's commonly used by entities directly involved in production or consumption. This method is more straightforward but demands the logistical capabilities that individual traders usually lack.
ETFs
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer an alternative for those interested in the crude oil market without dealing with futures contracts or physical ownership. Crude oil ETFs typically track the price of oil or related indices by holding futures contracts or a blend of oil company stocks. This allows investors to indirectly gain exposure to oil price movements with less complexity.
Investing in a crude oil ETF can provide a degree of diversification, as these funds may also include assets like bonds or other commodities in their portfolio. However, it's essential to be aware of the management fees and potential tracking errors in the ETF's performance compared to the actual commodity.
Stocks
Another route to gain exposure to the crude oil market is by investing in the stocks of companies involved in the industry. This includes major producers, refineries, and even transportation companies. By owning shares in these businesses, investors are indirectly influenced by crude oil prices. To use an example, a rise in oil prices often boosts the profitability of oil-producing companies, potentially leading to stock price appreciation.
Unlike trading futures or CFDs, investing in stocks means actually owning a piece of the company, often with the added benefits of dividends. However, conducting thorough research is crucial, as these stocks can be affected by company-specific risks in addition to oil price movements.
Crude Oil Trading Strategies
Given the volatile nature of crude oil prices, traders employ specific strategies to capitalise on price fluctuations. Here are some strategies that may be useful for crude oil trading:
Trend Following with Moving Averages
The trend is your friend, especially in commodities like crude oil. This is a well-known technique but it may be very useful for commodity trading. One effective way to follow the trend is by using moving averages, such as the 50-day (blue) and 200-day (orange). When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, it's generally a bullish signal, and vice versa for a bearish trend. However, as with all technical analysis tools, moving averages can sometimes trigger false signals.
Range Trading
Due to supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors, crude oil prices often fluctuate within a specific range. Identifying these ranges can be useful for short-term trading. Traders buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the higher end, applying technical indicators like RSI or Stochastic Oscillator for entry and exit signals.
News-Based Trading
In crude oil markets, news about OPEC decisions, US oil inventory data, geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements can dramatically impact prices. Traders keeping an eye on oil news can take advantage of sudden announcements or an economic release likely to push prices in a particular direction. Given the high leverage commonly available in CFD trading, this strategy can be effective but also comes with significant risk.
Trade Crude Oil at FXOpen
Trade WTI and Brent Crude oil CFDs at FXOpen to take advantage of our competitive spreads, high liquidity, and lightning-fast execution speeds.
We offer four different trading platforms, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, TickTrader, and TradingView, each with desktop, web-based and mobile versions for access anytime and anywhere. Take advantage of advanced technical analysis tools, including many trading tools and expert advisors for automated trading.
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To access Crude Oil markets with competitive spreads and rapid execution speeds, consider opening an FXOpen account today and step confidently into the world of crude oil trading.
The Bottom Line
In crude oil trading, having the right strategies and tools is essential. By understanding the fundamentals, market dynamics, and utilising specific trading techniques, you are now equipped with the knowledge you need to get started!
FAQ
How to Trade Brent Crude Oil?
To trade Brent Crude oil, you can use various instruments such as futures contracts, CFDs, ETFs, or stocks of oil companies. Most retail traders use CFDs, which provide a way to speculate on price movements without owning the asset. CFDs also allow for leverage, which can amplify both potential gains and losses.
What Is the Brent Oil Trading Strategy?
A common Brent oil trading strategy involves trend following using moving averages. For instance, traders use the 50-day and 200-day moving averages to identify bullish or bearish trends. Range trading and news-based trading are also popular strategies.
What Hours Does Crude Oil Trade?
Crude oil trades nearly 24/5. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) operates from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon with a daily break. The most active trading occurs during the US session (9:00 AM to 2:30 PM EST) and the European session (6:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST).
What Is the Best Time to Trade Brent Crude Oil?
According to theory, the best time to trade Brent Crude oil is during the overlap of the US and European sessions, from 9:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST, when market liquidity and volatility are highest. However, you should consider fundamental factors as they can lead to unexpected price movements.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
BRENTOIL trade ideas
UK BRENT SELL OPPORTUNITY Price trades at $78.508 per barrel. A sell opportunity is envisaged from the current market price. Target is $76.121
Brent crude: Buying into the stormAny trade you take in oil right now is probably going to make you a quick win or loss .
Oil has easily been the most volatile market this week - it's pretty obvious why
1) Hurricanes in the US disrupting supply
2) War in the Middle East
For us, the trend is higher since breaking through $76 / bbl. And the latest fractal forming a higher low helped confirm this idea.
This uptrend has not been properly established with 2 higher highs, which offers bigger possible upside but also a greater chance of never getting going.
You can see the price is trapped between the 50 SMA and 200 SMA.
We see a chance for a favourable 2:1 risk reward by trading the pullback from yesterday's bullish engulfing candlestick up to this week's high around 81.50.
What do you think? Please share your ideas in a comment
BRENT's Resistance at One-Year Pivot PointHello,
BLACKBULL:BRENT has reached a new one-year low at 68.675. Since then, it has maintained a position comfortably above the 1M pivot point. The only scenario in which a long position could be considered is if the price stabilizes above the one-year pivot point, which has thus far acted as a resistance level.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
BULLISH BIAS ON BRENT CRUDE OILBrent crude rose 2.7% at one point on October 1st due to fundamental reasons between Iran and Israel outweighing supply, multiple breaks of a swing high making a significant shift in the oil market breaking past $76 per barrel a fresh 2H Bullish breaker formed at 76.00 anticipating a retracement at that level and continuation of buys till $81 per barrel
Brent Crude Oil Analysis==>> Fundamental + TechnicalBrent Crude Oil ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ) began to rise from the Heavy Support zone($71.30-$64.80) after Iran attacked Israel . ( It seemed that before the attack of Iran, Brent oil intended to fall and correction further ).
Today's fundamental analysis of Brent crude oil prices is influenced by several key factors:
Geopolitical Tensions : The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, has raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil production and exports. Any attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global oil exports, could reduce supply and drive prices higher. These concerns have contributed to the recent rise in Brent prices, pushing it above $80 per barrel.
Global Demand : China's recent large-scale economic stimulus aimed at boosting recovery has increased optimism for higher oil demand. As the world's largest oil consumer, any rise in demand from China directly influences global oil prices.
OPEC+ Supply Capacity : Although OPEC+ still has significant spare production capacity, there are worries that a severe crisis in the region could overwhelm this capacity, preventing the group from compensating for any sudden drop in supply.
Overall, the short-term outlook for Brent crude appears bullish, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and potential increases in demand from China. However, the market remains cautious to see if these trends will hold over time.
Now, according to the fundamental analysis of Brent Crude Oi, let's see which area is suitable for buying Brent Crude Oi .
Brent Crude Oil is moving near the Support zone and the Support line .
Brent Crude Oil's movement structure is corrective , and we should expect it to move upwards again .
I expect Brent Crude Oil to start rising again from or near the Support zone and at least to $81(Yearly Pivot Point) and then attack the Resistance lines .
Brent Crude Oil Analyze (USDBRO), Daily time frame⏰.
🔔 Be sure to follow the updated ideas. 🔔
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
NEW IDEA FOR BRNT OILBrent oil price can rise to resistance in the range of $81.53, on the condition of maintaining and not registering any four-hour close candle time below the important support interval in the range of 75.42-74.11.
Should we get ready for Brent Crude oil at $94?Crude oil prices have risen by 18.5% since September, and the charts indicate the potential for a move toward $94 per barrel. This is based on the possibility that Brent crude oil may be forming the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. For confirmation, we would need the price to reach the low of the left shoulder at $74.96 before triggering the neckline at the October high of $80.99. If this happens, the pattern would complete, suggesting a target of $94.
What are your thoughts? Do you think this pattern will play out, or was the October high a multi-month peak?
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Oil’s Battle: Can Momentum Overcome Long-Term Weakness?Oil prices surged past critical technical levels last week as escalating Middle East tensions raised fears of significant supply disruptions. As bullish momentum builds in response to geopolitical risks, let’s explore the key levels to watch, where short-term gains could face resistance from lingering long-term weakness.
Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Oil's Rally
Last week, oil logged its biggest weekly gain in nearly two years, surging more than 8% as tensions in the Middle East intensified. The rally was sparked by growing fears of supply disruptions after Israel considered striking Iran’s oil infrastructure in retaliation for missile attacks. With Iran exporting 1.7 million barrels per day, any attack on its facilities could trigger a significant cut to global supply.
The risk of a broader conflict extends beyond Iran. Should Tehran retaliate or block the Strait of Hormuz—through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows—oil shipments from key producers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq could grind to a halt. Such a move would have devastating effects on global supply chains, with experts warning that oil prices could surge past $150 per barrel, leading to severe economic fallout. The mere speculation of these events has already fuelled the sharp rise in prices.
Technical Levels Align for Oil's Next Test
From a technical standpoint, oil’s rally has been impressive but faces a key test just ahead. Having broken through its 50-day moving average and the descending trendline, prices now sit just below the 200-day moving average—a major resistance zone that’s aligned with both the April and July swing highs. Additionally, the VWAP anchored to the April highs further bolsters this area as a point of confluence.
The RSI is elevated but still not in overbought territory, which leaves room for more upside if prices can clear the 200-day moving average. However, a failure to break above this resistance zone could signal a temporary top, especially if geopolitical tensions cool.
Brent Crude Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Hourly Candle Chart – A Battle of the Timeframes
Drilling down to the detail of the hourly candle chart reveals a battle between short-term momentum and long-term weakness. Prices have already responded to the daily VWAP anchored to the April highs, causing a pullback on the hourly chart.
Traders should also keep an eye on the upward-sloping VWAP anchored to the recent October lows, as this provides a true average price for those who bought at the recent lows. As these two VWAPs converge, we will see who wins—the short-term momentum traders or those looking to ride the longer-term weakness.
Brent Crude Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Crude Price Fails to Hold Above $80XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Crude Price Fails to Hold Above $80
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Brent crude oil prices surged by over 8.5% last week — marking the largest increase in 2024, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Although oil prices continued to climb earlier this week, a pullback occurred on Tuesday, causing Brent crude to drop below the $80 level. It appears that market participants expect U.S. authorities to prevent the conflict from worsening ahead of the presidential elections, prompting them to lock in profits from previous long positions based on the technical outlook.
XBR/USD Technical Analysis
Today's analysis of the XBR/USD chart shows that Brent crude is moving within an upward channel (shown in blue) that began in the first half of September. The recent downturn (indicated by an arrow) comes as:
→ The price has entered a resistance zone, marked by the psychological $80 level and the August highs around $81.5.
→ The RSI indicator has risen above 85.
→ The price has touched the upper boundary of the channel.
If tensions in the Middle East ease, we could see a pullback on the XBR/USD chart following the impressive rally.
Brent crude prices may find support at the median line of the blue channel, the $77.50 level, and the purple lines marking last week’s strong price growth.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The Potential Surge in Oil Prices Amid Middle East Tensions
The Potential Surge in Oil Prices Amid Middle East Tensions
Introduction: The Current Oil Market Landscape
Oil prices have always been closely tied to both geopolitical tensions and broader economic trends. At present, the market is contending with a confluence of factors that could lead to a significant rise in prices. Most notably, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran presents a serious risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East, a region that plays a pivotal role in global oil production. However, beyond geopolitical factors, economic measures around the world—such as new stimulus initiatives in China, anticipated global interest rate cuts, and potential central bank actions to inject liquidity into financial markets—also suggest that oil could be on the cusp of a major price surge.
Recent price movements have kept oil within a downward channel, with current prices hovering near $77 per barrel, as indicated in the accompanying chart. Yet, this downward trend may be short-lived. Once oil prices break above key technical levels, such as $87 per barrel, we could see prices escalate rapidly to $90, $95, and ultimately $100. From that point, the market could enter a new bullish phase, with prices potentially reaching as high as $120, spurred by both geopolitical tensions and increasing real demand.
Geopolitical Factors Driving Oil Prices: The Middle East in Focus
The Middle East, home to many of the world’s largest oil-producing nations, has long been a region of strategic importance to the global energy market. The current conflict between Israel and Iran is reigniting concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, particularly if the situation escalates into a wider regional conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, could become a flashpoint if tensions rise. In past conflicts, any disruptions to this narrow passage have sent oil prices soaring due to the immense volume of oil that flows through the region daily.
Iran, already constrained by international sanctions, may retaliate by targeting infrastructure or further disrupting oil shipments, while other regional players like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could find themselves drawn into the conflict. Even the perception of instability in the region can cause volatility in oil prices, as traders and speculators seek to hedge against potential supply shocks. Given this backdrop, oil prices are highly sensitive to any developments in the Middle East, and further escalation could push prices beyond key resistance levels.
The Economic Context: Global Stimulus and Interest Rate Cuts
Beyond geopolitical risks, there are several macroeconomic factors that strongly suggest oil prices are poised for a significant increase. First, the Chinese government has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures aimed at bolstering its economy, which has faced challenges in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing issues in the real estate sector. These measures are expected to drive demand for commodities, including oil, as China, the world’s largest importer of oil, ramps up its industrial activity and consumer consumption.
Simultaneously, central banks across the world are likely to cut interest rates in the near future as global economic growth shows signs of slowing. With inflation moderating in several advanced economies, central banks like the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and others could pivot toward a more accommodative monetary policy to support growth. Rate cuts tend to increase liquidity in the financial system, making borrowing cheaper and encouraging investment. As liquidity flows into the markets, demand for oil typically increases, as businesses expand operations and consumers spend more on goods and services that require energy inputs.
Moreover, there are growing expectations of additional stimulus measures from other major economies to prevent recessionary pressures from taking hold. This influx of liquidity, coupled with China’s own stimulus efforts, is likely to drive global demand for oil higher, reinforcing the upward pressure on prices. The combination of increased demand from economic recovery and potential supply risks due to Middle Eastern tensions creates a perfect storm for oil prices to break out of their current bearish trend.
U.S. Strategic Oil Reserves and National Security Concerns
Adding to the bullish case for oil is the fact that the United States' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently at depleted levels. Over the past two years, the U.S. government has released significant amounts of oil from the SPR in an attempt to curb rising domestic gasoline prices and stabilize global energy markets. However, these releases have reduced the reserve to its lowest levels in decades, and any further large-scale drawdowns are unlikely due to national security concerns. The U.S. government will likely prioritize maintaining the remaining reserves for genuine emergencies, rather than using them as a tool to stabilize market prices.
This depletion of the U.S. oil reserves further tightens the global supply picture, as one of the world's largest emergency stockpiles is no longer available as a buffer against sudden supply shocks. In the event of a major supply disruption—whether due to a conflict in the Middle East or other unforeseen events—the absence of a large SPR release would leave the global market more vulnerable, driving prices higher. This, combined with the aforementioned stimulus measures, could create a significant imbalance between supply and demand, leading to sustained upward pressure on oil prices.
Technical Analysis of Oil Prices: Breaking Out of the Downward Channel
From a technical standpoint, the oil market is currently trading within a downward channel, as depicted in the accompanying chart. Prices have been steadily declining over the past few months, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market. However, this trend may be nearing a turning point, particularly as oil prices approach key resistance levels.
The first significant level to watch is $87 per barrel. This price has served as a formidable resistance in recent weeks, and breaking above this level would be a clear signal that the market is shifting from a bearish to a bullish phase. Once $87 is breached, the next targets would be $90 and $95, both of which represent important psychological and technical barriers. If oil prices can sustain a move above $95, it would set the stage for a test of the $100 mark—a critical level that has historically acted as both a resistance and support point for oil prices.
The $100 level is particularly important because it marks the top of the current downward channel, and a move above this threshold would indicate a reversal of the broader downtrend. A successful breakout above $100 could see oil prices enter a new bullish phase, with the potential to climb as high as $120 per barrel, particularly if geopolitical risks remain elevated and global demand continues to increase due to economic stimulus measures.
The Role of Market Sentiment and Future Outlook
While technical analysis and geopolitical factors provide strong arguments for a potential rise in oil prices, market sentiment will also play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of the market. Currently, investor sentiment is mixed, with many traders cautious about the outlook for global economic growth. However, as central banks around the world begin to ease monetary policy and introduce new stimulus measures, sentiment could shift rapidly toward a more bullish outlook for oil.
In particular, hedge funds and large institutional investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as well as economic indicators from major economies like the U.S. and China. If tensions between Israel and Iran escalate further or if there is a significant disruption to oil supply, it could lead to a sharp rise in speculative buying, driving prices higher. At the same time, if global economic growth accelerates due to stimulus measures, real demand for oil will increase, providing fundamental support for higher prices.
Conclusion: A Bullish Outlook for Oil Prices?
In summary, oil prices are currently at a critical juncture, with both geopolitical and macroeconomic factors pointing toward a potential breakout from the current downward trend. While the market remains trapped in a downward channel for now, key technical levels, such as $87 per barrel, suggest that a significant move higher could be imminent. Once prices break through $87, the next targets would be $90, $95, and ultimately $100—beyond which the market could enter a new bullish phase.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, are a major risk factor that could disrupt global oil supplies and send prices soaring. At the same time, new stimulus measures in China, along with anticipated global interest rate cuts and potential central bank interventions to inject liquidity into the markets, are expected to drive demand for oil higher. The depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve further tightens the supply side, adding to the bullish case for oil.
Ultimately, oil prices could rise as high as $120 per barrel if these factors align, creating a perfect storm of increased demand, constrained supply, and heightened geopolitical risks. For traders and investors, the oil market presents significant opportunities in the months ahead, as both technical and fundamental indicators point to a potential surge in prices.
Oil Analysis: Correction Before Uptrend with a Target of $85 mallicast :In the upcoming week, oil is expected to experience a corrective movement, but the overall trend remains bullish. The target price for this upward movement is $85.
Brent oil and the global recessionConsidering the events in the Middle East and the possibility of the involvement of oil-rich countries, and on the other hand, the economic policies of the United States and the growth of emerging countries in the economic field and the increase in demand from the behavioral financial point of view, oil has the potential to reach the range of $125 per barrel and after that. It has the construction of historical prices in 2025.
Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: Sept 30 - Oct 4Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: Brent Crude Oil, GBP/CAD, US Dollar, Lockheed Martin Stock
Welcome to the 100th edition of our Weekly Market Wrap video series!
Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.
– XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Oil Price Soars After Attack on Israel
– Analysis of GBP/CAD: Price Falls Below 1.800 Level
– Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Employment Data Release
– Lockheed Martin (LMT) Stock Price Surpasses $600 for the First Time
Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen. Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.
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Petrolio in declino dal 2022: quali le prospettive adesso? Da inizio anno il petrolio sta guadagnando solo il 2% ma se ci concentriamo sui massimi di aprile 2024, dove il prezzo del petrolio ha raggiunto gli 88$ al barile, i prezzi sono scesi di oltre il 25%.
Nel 2022, post pandemia, abbiamo assistito a picchi che non si registravano dal 2008, intorno ai 120$ al barile per poi cominciare una lenta discesa fino ai giorni nostri.
Cosa sta causando questa tendenza di lungo periodo di deprezzamento del petrolio?
I CFD/Spread Bets sono strumenti complessi e comportano un rischio significativo di perdere denaro rapidamente a causa della leva finanziaria. 82,67% di conti di investitori al dettaglio perdono denaro nelle negoziazioni in CFD con questo fornitore. Valuta se comprendi il funzionamento dei CFD/Spread Bets e se puoi permetterti di correre l'elevato rischio di perdere il tuo denaro. Si prega di notare che gli Spread Bets sono disponibili solo per i residenti in UK.
Andiamo ad analizzare i 2 fattori principali:
OPEC+
L’OPEC è l’organizzazione dei principali paesi esportatori di Petrolio ed è stata fondata nel 1960. L’organizzazione inizialmente era composta da Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Arabia Saudita e Venezuela ma successivamente ha accolto altri membri, fino a raggiungere l’attuale composizione di13 partecipanti.
Nel 2016, gli stati membri hanno firmato un accordo con altri 10 paesi produttori di petrolio per creare quello che ora è noto come OPEC+ (OPEC PLUS).
L'obiettivo di questa organizzazione è di gestire la produzione petrolifera e coordinare la produzione, governando, in parte, i prezzi globali del petrolio.
I risultati passati non sono indicativi dei risultati futuri.
Il prezzo di un bene o di una materia prima, come il petrolio, si basa sulla domanda e sull’offerta.
Controllando l’offerta, i paesi OPEC possono determinare i prezzi del petrolio? La risposta è NO! L’organizzazione non è in grado di controllare la domanda mondiale di petrolio, che dipende principalmente dall’andamento delle maggiori economie.
La diminuzione della domanda è proprio il motivo del calo dei prezzi del petrolio degli ultimi anni.
Da febbraio 2024, otto membri dell’OPEC+, tra cui Arabia Saudita e Russia (i più grandi produttori di petrolio), hanno volontariamente ridotto la loro produzione di circa 2,2 milioni di barili al giorno (riduzione dell’offerta).
Sebbene inizialmente l’OPEC avesse pianificato di diminuire questi tagli a partire da ottobre 2024, il calo attuale dei prezzi del petrolio ha portato a un’estensione dei tagli volontari per altri due mesi (almeno fino a dicembre 2024).
CINA
La Cina è una delle economie più grandi al mondo, di conseguenza l’andamento della propria economia e in particolare la bilancia dell’import export è capace di influenzare i prezzi di materie prime e beni finali a livello globale, tra cui il petrolio.
Analizzando i dati ufficiali delle importazioni cinesi degli ultimi anni è possibile notare come sia stato registrato un calo importante dai massimi del 2021, andate addirittura in territorio negativo a metà 2023. Importazioni basse si traducono in offerta in eccesso (a parità di produzione), obbligando i produttori OPEC a dover tagliare la produzione per mantenere bilanciata la domanda e l’offerta.
L’OPEC sta attualmente tagliando la produzione di un totale di 5,8 milioni di barili al giorno, pari a circa il 5,7% della domanda globale. Nell’ultimo report ufficiale dell’OPEC, si nota come le proiezioni future della domanda di petrolio cinese per l’ultimo trimestre del 2024 e per tutto il 2025 non sono riviste a rialzo, ma anzi, rimangono in territorio estremamente basso.
I risultati passati non sono indicativi dei risultati futuri.
I risultati passati non sono indicativi dei risultati futuri.
La produzione industriale cinese rimane ai minimi annuali e il settore manifatturiero si trova in fase di rallentamento. Le proiezioni economiche cinesi non sono rosee e sarà difficile vedere una ripresa entro la fine 2024. Il governo cinese nelle ultime settimane ha attuato diverse politiche fiscali di stimolo, come il taglio dei tassi di interesse e l’iniezione di liquidità all’interno del mercato.Purtroppo per la Cina pesa molto il tracollo immobiliare visto nel 2023, con il default di Evergrande e altri istituti immobiliari.
GUERRE-GEOPOLITICA
Le guerre e le tensioni geopolitiche hanno sempre influenzato i prezzi del petrolio nella storia e proprio in questi mesi stiamo vivendo, purtroppo, due guerre coinvolgenti grandi potenze su due fronti diversi: Russia-Ucraina e Israele e Palestina/Libano.
Negli ultimi giorni le notizie di attacchi iraniani sopra Israele hanno riacceso i prezzi del petrolio, che guadagna oltre il 6% dai minimi del 12 settembre.
Attualmente scambia sopra i 70$ al barile.
I risultati passati non sono indicativi dei risultati futuri.
I motivi dell’aumento dei prezzi sono da ricercarsi nella paura che sorgano ulteriori problemi di approvvigionamento in caso di attacchi a siti di estrazioni o alle esportazioni tramite navi cargo o mezzi su ruote.
Nonostante le guerre e la geopolitica riescono a spingere al rialzo i prezzi del petrolio, solitamente ciò avviene sui periodi relativamente brevi, di conseguenza appena le tensioni si allentano i prezzi tendono a riprendere la tendenza principale.
Oltre ai punti citati in questo articolo ci sono tanti altri motivi e altri paesi che influenzano i prezzi del petrolio.
Disclaimer:La finalità del presente articolo è meramente informativa e didattica. Le informazioni qui riportate non costituiscono consulenza in materia di investimenti e non contemplano la situazione finanziaria o gli obiettivi individuali degli investitori. Le informazioni relative ai risultati passati non sono un indicatore affidabile dei risultati futuri. Per quanto permesso dalla legge, in nessun caso, Capital.com (o un suo affiliato o dipendente) assume responsabilità per qualsiasi perdita incorsa a causa dell’utilizzazione delle informazioni fornite. Chi agisce in base a tali informazioni lo fa a proprio rischio. Qualsiasi informazione che possa essere intesa come “ricerca di investimento” non è stata preparata in conformità ai requisiti legali stabiliti per promuovere l’indipendenza della ricerca di investimento e dunque deve essere considerata comunicazione di marketing.
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BRENT OIL - Divergence Led break down from WedgeBrent Oil formed bearish divergence on MACD and then fell down rather aggressively from rising wedge formation. This indicates that bearish pressure will prevail for some time atleast.
Brent rises on geopolitical risks
Oil prices have seen a notable rise, driven by rising tensions in the Middle East that threaten to disrupt crude flows from one of the world's most productive regions. In recent sessions, Brent crude futures have risen 1.27% to $74.84 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has also seen increases, trading at $71.09.
The escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iranian-backed armed groups, such as Hezbollah, has generated concern in global markets. Israel recently carried out bombings in Beirut, escalating tensions and increasing nervousness about the possible repercussions on the region's energy infrastructure.
However, despite the rise in prices, the oil market remains relatively stable, with U.S. crude inventories reporting an increase of 3.9 million barrels, suggesting adequate supply to cope with any disruption. This abundant supply limits Brent's gains, as many investors believe that OPEC's ability to offset any supply losses could moderate the impact of a prolonged conflict. It is appreciable that while prices could remain elevated in the short term, Iran's oil infrastructure would not be a primary target for Israel, as an attack on these facilities could drive oil prices towards unsustainable levels for the global economy.
In conclusion, as geopolitical tensions continue to affect the oil outlook, the market appears to be well supplied, limiting gains amid uncertainty. Investors are closely monitoring the situation, waiting for a development that could alter this dynamic.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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BRENT oilChart: Brent Crude Oil on the 15-minute time frame.
Key Elements:
The green channel shows the price oscillating downward, with the price breaking out of this channel to the upside.
Order blocks (in gray and red) are noted between the $71.5 - $72.5 range, which may act as zones of institutional buying or selling.
MY green prediction line indicates a belief that the price will rise significantly after it hits the liquidity zone around $70.04. This implies that the downward liquidity sweep has potentially completed and now buyers are likely to push the price higher.
Overall Analysis:
Daily: The price filled a liquidity zone around $70 and may be ready to reverse or retrace upward.
15-minute: On a shorter time frame, it seems like you're predicting a breakout from the order block and a bullish move.
This setup could indicate a potential opportunity for a long position if the price respects the order blocks and liquidity fill around the $70 zone
BCO💹
Outlook: Crude Oil has been looking really good breaking bullish since yesterday. We have this 30m Impulse Correction and I am currently waiting for the 6m to show a correction inside this 30m A. Then I will wait for the 1m to do the same Impulse and correct. Lets see if we show signs of bullishness that this thing wants to go up.
NY session bias: Bullish
XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Oil Price Soars After Attack on IsraelXBR/USD Analysis: Brent Oil Price Soars After Attack on Israel
Following Israel's military operation in Lebanon, Iran launched a missile strike on Israel on October 1. Financial markets reacted sharply as soon as the first reports of the attack emerged:
→ U.S. stock indices dropped significantly, and Bitcoin also fell, with BTC/USD nearing the psychological $60,000 mark at yesterday's low.
→ Gold surged to $2670, though supply forces have since curbed the panic buying, and XAU/USD has dropped back below $2650.
Oil prices also spiked. Unlike other financial assets, there has been no correction on the XBR/USD chart today, despite the end of the missile strike on Israel. This highlights oil's heightened sensitivity to Middle Eastern tensions.
According to today’s technical analysis of XBR/USD:
→ Brent oil price movements have formed an upward channel (shown in blue), beginning in early September. Following the news of the missile attack, the price has climbed into the upper half of the channel.
→ Interestingly, just before this surge, the price had hit a multi-week low with a false bearish breakout below the psychological $70 per barrel level.
Given Israel’s vow to retaliate for Iran's strike, it’s reasonable to assume that oil demand may remain high, potentially pushing XBR/USD towards the upper boundary of the channel, surpassing the current resistance at $75.
Brent oil could find support at the median line of the blue channel and the $72.50 level.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Will it break trendline - BRENT?Break above on declining trendline can give huge upside, may or not.. because this is news/event driven rally.. Wait n watch ...
Análise de Mercado: BRENT e GOLD - DiárioPETRÓLEO
Os preços do petróleo caíram no início da sessão europeia, enquanto os mercados descartam as preocupações sobre a escalada de tensões no Médio Oriente e o seu potencial impacto nas reservas de crude, focando-se em vez disso no excesso de oferta e na fraca procura. A China, o maior importador de crude do mundo, tem mostrado uma procura retraída, já que o seu crescimento económico continua a abrandar. Entretanto, a OPEC+, liderada pela Arábia Saudita, parece pronta para aumentar a produção em dezembro. Tendo em conta estes fatores, os preços do Brent deverão permanecer em torno dos níveis atuais, cerca de 70 dólares por barril, com a possibilidade de uma nova descida.
OURO
Os preços do ouro subiram ligeiramente no início desta terça-feira, recuperando parte das perdas das duas sessões anteriores. A procura pelo metal precioso mantém-se forte, com os preços a oscilar abaixo dos máximos históricos da semana passada, devido ao seu estatuto como ativo de refúgio e à perspetiva de taxas de juro mais baixas nos EUA. No entanto, o pacote de estímulos recentemente anunciado pelo banco central da China limitou, em parte, a valorização do ouro. As medidas, que visam revitalizar a enfraquecida economia chinesa, aumentaram o apetite pelo risco nos mercados financeiros, impulsionando especialmente as ações chinesas e desviando algum investimento do ouro. Neste contexto, os traders estão agora atentos a uma série de dados que serão divulgados até ao final da semana, incluindo os números do emprego e os indicadores PMI nos EUA. Leituras fortes podem trazer obstáculos adicionais para o ouro, enquanto dados mais fracos podem reacender a sua trajetória ascendente.
Ricardo Evangelista – Analista Sénior, ActivTrades
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