BTCUSD potential Bearish movement after showing rejectionSELL Signal: Activated at 108645.34, after price reacted from the supply zone and showed signs of weakness, suggesting a potential short-term reversal.
TP Zones:
TP1: 107293.03
TP2: 105940.72
Final TP: 104588.42
This setup offers a potential profit range of approximately +1,352 to +4,057 pips from entry.
Market Structure:
Following a previous bullish move, price tapped into the higher timeframe supply zone and now shows signs of exhaustion. This SELL signal suggests a possible correction or deeper move into the demand below, with a clean risk-to-reward structure. The SL is positioned above recent highs, giving this setup room to play out.
Remember to manage your trades carefully and ensure this setup fits your overall strategy. Stay sharp and trade responsibly!
BBBTC Inverse Perpetual Futures Contract
108,140.4USDR
−81.1−0.07%
As of today at 06:02 GMT
USD
No trades
BTCUSD.PI trade ideas
The Right Bitcoin ChannelHello TV Community,
I am back with this and more insightful charts coming soon.
This chart was first published back in 2020 (linked below) and this is an update to BTC's trajectory over the past few years.
This chart demonstrates that BTC's price action has been steadily following the mid 50% of my "right" channel (see idea linked below to understand what I mean by "right channel"). The last time BTC's price broke out of the mid 50% range was back in December 2017's high.
The most up to date volume profile indicates that the majority of the trading volume was pre-2017. The MACD indicator is a great example of BTC's highly volatillity since the Dec 2017 high.
If BTC's price breaks into the bottom 25% of the channel, I would expect a touch of the lower end of this channel. If the price bounces off the lower end of the mid 50% of this channel, we can expect higher highs in the not too distant future.
'Til next time.
__________________________________
I let my charts do the talkin'.
Bitcoin Halving DemystifiedI was recently asked of my opinion on how I could possibly come up with a Papa Bear Projection Chart where the correction period takes over a year long - one that takes us well into next year, and into and over the next Bitcoin halving date of May 2020. I figured it would be easier to simply print a chart for reference.
A picture speaks a thousand words. Here's a history of Bitcoin halvings - all two of them.
A. The first and the only point pertinent to the question that was asked of me is point A - the second BTC halving which occurred in July 2016 where the price of Bitcoin dropped ~40% immediately BEFORE, DURING and AFTER it.
Need I say more? The rest of this post is for educational purposes.
B. Here, the price dropped by 75% six months after the first halving (that should have said first on the chart).
C. A drop in price of approximately 80% in its early days (11.85 to 2.22) and one year before the first halving.
D. A correction period of over 1.5 years where the price dropped by about 90% between the two halvings (1163 to 152).
E. The price rose by 100% one year after the second halving. As an analogy, in today's terms, it would rise from 3000 to 6000 or 8000 to 16000 one year after the next halving (I'm not saying this is what will happen).
F. A correction period of over a year where the price dropped by ~85% (~20000 to ~3000).
Bitcoin has had more elongated correction periods and FAR MORE drops in price than it has had halvings. A third correction period of over a year or another drop in price is neither an abnormality nor a deviation from the "norm".
I guess the only reason I can think of as to why people think my projection seems so absolutely absurd is because they be dreamin' of owning Maseratis and Mansions and they be wantin' it now.
Do I think halvings have anything to do with the price of Bitcoin (all one of the two halvings which had no significant correlation, where the price did not increase immediately after the halving and only increased months later in line with the trend it was in prior to the halving)? None whatsoever.
Do I expect the price of Bitcoin to increase in the future? Yes, but only after it corrects.
What is clear from this chart is that BTC, just like any other stock or crypto, goes through cycles.
I can't predict when the corrections will end but I can forecast where it will likely finish based on its cycle and technical analysis, and that is what I am most concerned with at Purple Crypto Premium.
Adios amigos.
What goes up must come down.
My Secret Papa Bear Chart
It Played Out Like a Beautiful Melody
Are We Ready for the Crash?
Are We There Yet?
What If It Goes Down? Future Projection
___________________________
There's only one person you need to follow when it comes to crypto.
A new BUY signal has emerged on the BTC/USDBUY Signal: Activated at 107168.37, following a rejection from demand and signs of bullish momentum building, suggesting a potential short-term reversal.
TP Zones:
TP1: 108458.10
TP2: 109747.83
Final TP: 111037.56
This setup offers a potential profit range of approximately +1,290 to +3,869 pips from entry.
Market Structure:
Price broke downward structure previously but has since reacted strongly from the demand zone, forming a new higher low and showing signs of reclaiming premium imbalance zones. The signal aligns with a possible shift toward bullish continuation, with targets set within the overhead supply area.
Remember to manage your trades carefully and ensure this setup fits your overall strategy. Stay sharp and trade responsibly!
Long positions have achieved profits, BTC market outlook📰 News information：
1. Pay attention to the trend of gold and US bonds
📈 Technical Analysis：
At present, BTC has rebounded and profited, and rebounded to around 108,000 again. 109,000 is also the upper track of the Bollinger Band. There is a certain suppression in the short term. Before the suppression fails to break through effectively, BTC may still fall into a weak and volatile market. If BTC hits resistance and pressure above 108,000-109,000 during the day, you can consider shorting. In view of the current volatile market, everyone must strictly control their positions, use leverage prudently, and do a good job of risk management to cope with market uncertainties.
🎯 Trading Points：
SELL 108,000-109,000
TP 107,000-106,000-105,000
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
Sideways ChannelLooks like today we have bounced off the midpoint of this channel. Yesterday we dropped, today we rise!
Overall, this looks like a very neutral position. Potential for a short gain here up to previous highs with a bounce back down to lows.
No one can predict how long we will stay in this channel, but the breakout or breakdown will be very bold and very loud in one direction.
As a trend trader, I am looking to a breakup potential right now. If I had to be in a position, it would be long.
BTC?
Hi
I think we are at seed stage for this 2 Quarters.
130? or more?
Everyone.. including well paid analysts are predicting.
So what is the difference between you/I and them?
||| Nothing :: or they might be worst .. (not investing/not taking risk at all from what they write)
I make my publish notes.. I take risk.. I am bolder.. hehe
Although; I am wrong or in profits. I stick to what I believe. So should oneself.
I would spend some % into my idea.
End of day. Do not believe anyone. Do your own research and be bold. Have your Stops ready.. make sure it's wide ( so it won't hurt you after 1 minute ) :)
All the best & Not a guru
NB/ I'm vulllisssssshhhhh of crypto space
Who knows one of you larva turn into beautiful butterfly
Bitcoin: 1hr Bullish AgainLooks like it will be a boring week for Bitcoin so probably ALTs will have a good run.
New Bitcoin numbers came out very close to each other meaning rest of week will be boring with low volatility.
We can expect Bitcoin entering a range for rest of week if current volatility continues.
Not much to say for now.. Top of range around 108500 to 109500.
Take care everyone.
BTC/USD 15M CHART PATTERNHere's a breakdown of your BTCUSD trade plan:
---
📈 Trade Setup
Position: Buy BTCUSD
Entry Price: 106,800
---
🎯 Take Profit Levels
1. TP1: 107,200 (+400 pips / +0.37%)
2. TP2: 107,700 (+900 pips / +0.84%)
3. TP3: 108,325 (+1,525 pips / +1.43%)
---
🛑 Stop Loss
SL: 106,028
(-772 pips / -0.72% risk)
---
📊 Risk-Reward Ratio
TP1: ~0.52 : 1
TP2: ~1.17 : 1
TP3: ~1.97 : 1
This plan shows a low initial reward, but the later targets improve the R:R considerably. Make sure your position size reflects your total risk tolerance.
Would you like help turning this into a trading journal entry, risk calculator, or script for a trading bot (e.g., in Pine Script or Python)?
Bitcoin May Break Higher if $108K Clears📊 Market:
BTC trades around $106,860, driven by strong ETF inflows and weaker USD ahead of Fed rate decisions.
📉 Technical:
• Resistance: $107,400–108,000 → breakout may target $110,000+
• Support: $106,500–106,800 → next at $105,500
• EMA: Price above EMA9 → short-term uptrend
• Momentum: RSI > 80, Stoch high → upside potential but overbought
📌 Outlook:
BTC could rise if $108K breaks. If not, expect a pullback to $106,800.
💡 Trade Setup:
🔺 BUY BTC/USD: $107,000–107,200
🎯 TP: 1000–2000 pts
❌ SL: $106,500
🔻 SELL BTC/USD: $108,000–108,200
🎯 TP: $106,800–107,000
❌ SL: $108,500
Crypto breakouts: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana lead the surgeJune brought a wave of positive sentiment to digital assets. Despite global uncertainty, major cryptocurrencies continued their upward movement. Investors are once again turning to decentralized assets amid expectations of a Fed rate cut and an increasingly fragile macro backdrop.
Key moves this month :
• Bitcoin (#BTCUSD) +4.6% — Strengthened by a weaker dollar and renewed institutional interest. JPMorgan projects $150,000 by 2025.
• Ethereum (#ETHUSD) +3.8% — Gains on ETF optimism and rising DeFi activity.
• Solana (#SOLUSD) +6.1% — In the spotlight due to network scalability and new Web3 partnerships.
• Ripple (#XRPUSD) +2.4% — Rebounding after positive developments in the SEC case and potential global alliances.
• Dogecoin (#DOGUSD) +5.2% — Community-driven momentum and fresh public support from Elon Musk.
Underperformers:
• Litecoin (#LTCUSD) –1.8%, Cardano (#ADAUSD) –2.2% — Profit-taking and lack of new drivers weighed on prices.
• Polkadot (#DOTUSD) –3.1% — Weak on-chain metrics and fading interest in cross-chain solutions added pressure.
According to FreshForex analysts, the crypto market is entering a recovery phase. Signals from the Fed hint at upcoming rate cuts, while interest in decentralized projects and crypto ETFs is rising. Market leadership by #BTC and #ETH reflects growing confidence, while altcoins continue to follow the broader upward trend.
Bitcoin Monthly Candle Close colour and patterns since 2011
At the beginning of June , I wrote this
""On only 2 occasions have we had a GREEN JAN, RED FEB, RED MARCH, GREEN APRIL
And Both of them were on the way to ATH. (Boxes )
On both those occasions we also had a GREEN MAY, though the gains were minimal and one was followed by a Green June and the other by a Red June."
We just got the GREEN June and so this draws my eye to the sequence on the left, ( arrow )
If we are to follow this, then July should be a larger Green (Arrow) - BULLISH
In-fact, in both the sequences we have been following ( boxes), July was GREEN- BULLISH
And using just the month candle colours, we have a higher chance of another Green candle, with July having had 9 Green to 4 Red previously. - BULLISH
However
Of the previous 8 Green June Closes , only 3 went to a Green July - BEARISH
And I have to say, on NONE of the previous Green Junes were we so close to the current ATH.
July 2021 being the closest with a price at 41K, around 18K below the current ATH at the time.
We are currently only around 200 usd below Current ATH
This adds enormous resistance to the ability to rise
I wanted a RED June because I felt it was more sustainable and would lead to a cycle ATH at the end of the year. As can be seen in the middle Box
If we look back toward the 2012 Box on the left, we may now get a Hot July / August , September and then a Cool off for October, November & December.
But something tells me this will not happen.
The Candles for our current cycle in April, May and June are diminishing in size, the opposite of 2012
But they are similar to the 2020 box, except for the red June close.
This could lead to the desired "Cooling" in August & September and a new lift off in autumn.
And if you look at the chart Candle Colour Count, , August and September are usually RED by some majority
This also gives us the Bigger Green July candle that the "Odds" point towards.
So, as ever, we have to wait and see how this plays out.
Odds in favour of a Green July using previous cycle Data
PA position just below current ATH could lead to a slightly Bearish out look in the short term.
And if you are hoping to see ALTS Rally, PLEASE keep your eye on the BTC.D chart
This also points to wards BTC ATH in Q4 this year
And then, we have the BIG question.......Will we ever see a Classix Bear again ?
With so many Holding Bitcoin LongTerm.....How would a Bear market arrive ?
BUY BITCOIN
HOLD BITCOIN
But, as ever, we just have to wait and see,
Bitcoin - The Silent Ascent of Under Institutional Custody.⊢
⟁ BTC/USD – BINANCE – (CHART: 1W) – (Date: July 01, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $106,464.00.
⊢
⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1W):
▦ EMA21 – ($98,213.17):
∴ The EMA21 has provided dynamic mid-term support since early Q4 2024;
∴ Recent pullbacks respected the line precisely, confirming its role as tactical trend anchor.
✴ Conclusion: Tactical bullish posture maintained. Rejection above EMA21 signals controlled bullish continuation.
⊢
▦ Week Moving Average 200WMA – ($60,425.78):
∴ The 200WMA continues its upward ascent, now surpassing the symbolic $60k level;
∴ Price remains structurally elevated, approximately 76% above the WMA baseline, marking a strong long-term cycle support.
✴ Conclusion: Structurally bullish. The 200WMA acts as a deep support; no signs of cyclical exhaustion.
⊢
▦ Volume + MA21:
∴ Volume remains within normal bounds, with no explosive or capitulative behavior;
∴ The 21-week average volume shows steadiness, confirming institutional absorption rather than speculative frenzy.
✴ Conclusion: Price action is supported by consistent volume. There is conviction, not hype.
⊢
▦ RSI + EMA21 – (RSI: 61.01 | EMA: 60.00):
∴ RSI remains stable above the 60-threshold, traditionally a bull-control zone;
∴ The EMA21 on RSI sits just beneath it, reflecting sustainable momentum without overheating.
✴ Conclusion: Momentum is alive and consistent. Pressure is not euphoric, but persistently positive.
⊢
▦ Mayer Multiple – (1.11):
∴ The current Mayer Multiple (Price ÷ 200WMA) is at 1.11, far below critical cyclical warning zones;
∴ Historical peaks formed above 2.4–3.2×, placing current readings in neutral-to-accumulative territory.
✴ Conclusion: No signs of macro-top formation. Room for expansion remains open within cycle structure.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle:
∴ Bitcoin maintains an elevated stance above all major structural supports;
∴ No indicators suggest euphoric excess or terminal cycle behavior;
∴ Momentum, structure, and volume all reflect the essence of a mature but breathing bull cycle, silently advancing.
⊢
∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant):
▦ MVRV Ratio – (2.22):
∴ The current MVRV remains below the historical danger zone of >2.5;
∴ Price is elevated, but not euphoric - reflective of controlled structural ascent.
✴ Conclusion: BTC sits in the upper-middle band of valuation. No top formation indicated, but vigilance required.
⊢
▦ Exchange Reserve – (All Exchanges – 2.4M BTC (new low):
∴ Continuous decline in BTC held on exchanges since Q4 2022;
∴ Signals that coins are being withdrawn to self-custody – typical of conviction-based accumulation.
✴ Conclusion: Supply is drying from trading venues. This is fundamentally bullish and reduces short-term dump risk.
⊢
▦ Realized Cap – ($958B):
∴ The realized capitalization is climbing in tandem with price - without flattening or divergence;
∴ Indicates strong inflow of high-conviction capital setting new cost-bases.
✴ Conclusion: Market is absorbing price increases via real buyer interest. Structural support is being rebuilt at higher levels.
⊢
▦ Short-Term Holder Realized Price & Profit/Loss Margin:
∴ Profit margins are rising but remain beneath the historical 70% “euphoria line;”
∴ No extreme deviation between spot price and realized price.
✴ Conclusion: Profit-taking is occurring in equilibrium. No signs of unsustainable speculation.
⊢
▦ Spent Output Profit Ratio – (SOPR - 1.036):
∴ Values above 1 indicate net selling at a profit;
∴ However, the ratio is stable and modest – no spike.
✴ Conclusion: Profitable selling is active, but not excessive. Market is cycling profits without panic or climax.
⊢
▦ Stablecoin Supply Ratio - (SSR – 17.6):
∴ A high SSR means fewer stablecoins relative to BTC -> lower immediate buy-side liquidity;
∴ This aligns with observed euro-stablecoin inflows and USD retreat.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin price is rising without massive stablecoin inflow. Potential for future upside if SSR compresses.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight – On-Chain Oracle:
∴ All six indicators converge on a structurally bullish;
∴ Tactically stable market;
∴ There is no evidence of blow-off top, exhaustion, or manic distribution;
∴ Supply is retreating, valuation rising moderately, and profit cycles remain rational.
⊢
⧉ III. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicvs:
▦ Macro-Structural Narrative:
∴ Bitcoin closed Q2 2025 with a +29.9% quarterly gain - (source: CryptoRank);
∴ The rally is attributed to growing institutional adoption, bolstered by pro-Bitcoin policies of the Trump administration, including treasury-on-chain initiatives;
∴ Macroeconomic tension around trade wars has eased, fueling upward movement in both BTC and the S&P 500, signaling synchronized risk-on appetite - (source: Coindesk).
✴ Conclusion: The quarterly momentum reflects fundamental confidence, not speculative heat, Bitcoin is tracking macro cycles and policy favorability - not detaching from economic logic.
⊢
▦ Liquidity Rotation Signal:
∴ While BTC saw a record monthly close above $106K in June, attention turned to the Euro, which surged ~4%, outperforming Bitcoin ~2.5% monthly gain - (source: Coindesk);
∴ This signals capital movement out of the USD and into alternative monetary zones, including euro-pegged stablecoins, highlighting a shift in liquidity strategy.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin performance remains strong, but stablecoin flows suggest hedging against USD, and potential cross-currency dynamics now influence crypto markets more than in past cycles.
⊢
▦ Institutional Absorption:
∴ Q2 2025 marked multiple treasury-scale Bitcoin purchases, the most notable was Strategy Inc.’s addition of $531 million in Bitcoin;
∴ Coindesk reports increasing movement of aged coins, suggesting long-term holders are realizing profit selectively, not exiting fully;
∴ Realized on-chain gains estimated around $2.4 billion, but SOPR and STH-P/L data show no speculative frenzy.
✴ Conclusion: Institutional reaccumulation is active - distribution is rational, not euphoric, the market is cycling profits, not dissolving conviction.
⊢
▦ Sentiment & Policy Alignment:
∴ Trump’s active endorsement of Bitcoin as a "strategic reserve instrument" has galvanized corporate treasuries and conservative capital;
∴ Policy signals from the U.S. now mirror early El Salvador-like rhetoric but on a scaled geopolitical stage;
∴ Meanwhile, legislative friction in the EU is softening, with euro-stablecoin flows confirming multi-jurisdictional bullish alignment.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin is evolving from speculative asset into a political-economic monetary instrument. Its adoption curve is now influenced by state-level policy vectors, not just market actors.
⊢
⧈ Synthesis – Silent Codex Verdict:
∴ Bitcoin’s Q2 expansion is rooted in structural convergence: (policy + macro easing + institutional inflows + on-chain discipline);
∴ The asset is not overheated, and continues to mature within a globalized, politically aware framework;
∴ The cycle breathes silently, with strength.
⊢
⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note:
∴ Resistance remains near $110K–112K, region of monthly closure highs;
∴ EMA21 at $98K defines tactical floor - breach would signify shift in short-term conviction;
∴ SSR at 17.6 suggests temporary stablecoin dryness, delaying momentum ignition.
✴ Conclusion: Tactical posture is consolidative, awaiting macro or capital inflow catalyst.
Upside remains open, but not yet inevitable.
⊢
𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
∴ Structurally Bullish – (Tactically Controlled);
∴ Bitcoin maintains long-term structural dominance, anchored above the 200WMA and supported by rising Realized Cap and exchange outflows;
∴ The RSI + EMA21 structure confirms active but non-euphoric momentum;
∴ MVRV at 2.22 and SOPR at 1.03 reflect profitable cycling, not late-stage irrationality;
∴ No blow-off volume or destabilizing divergence across timeframes.
✴ Conclusion: Bitcoin is in mid-cycle ascension, exhibiting maturity, discipline, and policy-aligned backing. The structural bullish thesis is intact.
⊢
⧉
⚜️ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis!
𓂀 Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy.
⧉
⊢
BTCUSD entering 3rd bear market cycle BTCUSD has bounced off of the top of a 4H descending channel and has now began moving in the 3rd bear market cycle
i will be watching for the market to reach the mid line in the channel and possibly to the bottom of the channel for another retest.
Opinion: This analysis is for education purposes only and is just my analysis, this is not a trade idea.
