BTC: maybe there we areA rectangle would be a good inversion figure, it would suffice.
Considering that the downtrend started on November 8th and ended on December 4th (probably), it is 4 weeks.
If this were the case, the rectangle would have a duration of at least the cycle of the previous trend (from 7 December to 3-4 January), therefore sufficient for a reversal.
The next few days could be a good time to buy if there is a good reversal pattern that closes above 46K.
I would wait for a compound pattern, at least 2-3 candles, being close to the end of the year there could be false breaks.
Bitcoin / USD Coin PERPETUAL CONTRACT
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−5,353.2−4.34%
As of today at 18:39 GMT
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BTCUSDC.P trade ideas
BTC Short term bearish scenario with major recovery in February?While this may be an unpopular perspective, I wanted to present a potential bearish scenario where BTC continues to follow the same path of the May/June 2021 downturn, reaches a point of maxx pain @ US$40k by end of January 2022 and then exacts a strong recovery back to ATH post March 2022.
Reviewing the last time we had a major dip from an ATH in May 2022, and using the same fractal, we could see further choppy price action down towards the 50w EMA, which would turn into support by end of Jan 2022, and this would reach a price of around US$40k as a very worst case (maxx pain) scenario with heavy support, since historically (according to Benjamin Cowen - Into the Cryptoverse analysis) we have never gone below a prior price at which the Bull Market Support Band held, like in September/October 2021.
Expecting a nice bounce from US$40k back to the US$53k level, we would then likely need a few attempts to break the US$53k level, after which US$64-65k would be the next price target (60% increase from the US$40k level) or we may even continue to push through that to a new ATH.
While this is extremely conservative and things are looking quite bullish today, for those who are concerned about continued downside risk, at least this hopefully represents a not too scary maxx pain possible worst case scenario from which, if it plays out, we would make a strong recovery into 2Q 2022.
BTC bearish breakdown to 44,500 at 50 week EMA?-BTC is now on a bearish breakdown from the short time frame wedge structure
-Downside target price based on wedge height is US$43-44k
-US$44.5k is the intersect of the 50w EMA so likely to be strong support
-Look for a wick down to US$43-44k and then for price to settle at US$44.5k
-If this level is not held, then the potential further downside risk is into the low 30s, so risk manage accordingly!
BTC: 60k Key Point for the 80Kexceeding 60k is confirmation of last week's Hammer pattern and trendline, which would see its third rebound (the second rebound is Engulfing at the end of September)
a lot depends on the fears for Covid and new lockdowns, but I believe that the market will not react as negatively as in the past, the fear is already partly taken for granted, but a longer lateral period is possible
in my opinion last week's hammer is the benchmark, above 60k or below 53k, this week could be decisive
in the event of a break of 60k, the target would be the height of the new trend wave, ie at least 85k
BTC: the bearish force endedThe bearish counter-trend is over, the last wave is definitely insufficient.
So it is feeling the bullish weekly main trend line.
Now we need to break the minor trendline of the countertrend, the key point is 61k, broken this is possible a pullback and then the continuation and break of the previous highs.
However, I don't think the Bull Run will be that fast this time around.
I am waiting to see BTC FALLS to $50KMaybe, I am a pessimist. I always see BTC is FALLING :D
I my last idea about BTC, when it is Rising from $62K, I see BTC backs to Fibonacci 0.5 at to $53,300? Even lower?
Now, when BTC touches Fibo level 1 ($57,775) and rising a little again in 2 days, I still think it will break this level and FALL to Fibo level 1.618 ($50,837).
Why?
- When BTC touches Fibo level 1, it also touch the MEAN Reversion band => Revert strength is hight. So it stops falling and rise a little as we can see 2 days ago.
- When BTC stops falling and moves back a little, revert bands are wider and MEAN revert strength is much lower now.
- This Fibo level 1 is not really strong, the recent ZigZag move is short and I still consider the move in my last idea as the main ZigZag move and the Fibo in that idea is much stronger. As you can see, $50K is Fibo 0.618 in that calculation. It is also Fibo 1.618 in this calculation. They are both very strong Fibo levels.
- The Volume Oscillator is still hight as you can see in the bottom => It still supports the main trend now is FALLING.
==> I believe BTC will FALLING to $50K in about 1 week.
