Meta.. Zoom outMeta has really been then engine behind NASDAQ for the past 8 months.. Nvda and MSFT both took a back seat and traded sideways since mid 2024 but Qqq was able gain another 7% from July high until February Top on a few names and meta was a big player.
Going into Q2 and Q3 the technicals are showing me that Meta will most likely take a major Haircut cut this year in comparison with the rest of MAG 7; Call it "catching up".
I always like to take a look at the sector these tech stocks are trading in before I actually chart the stock; Doing that has helped me and giving me more confidence and accuracy with charting the stock under that sector..
So let's look At AMEX:XLC
This sector has 3 main players
1.Meta
2.Googl
3.Nflx
When you start to see a sector about to implode, it usually means the biggest players in that sector will get hit the hardest..
I warned people back in December when XLC monthly MFI hit 90 and the RSI hit 80 that something was about to break. Since then Googl has dropped over 25%. I think this is just the beginning of the correction in XLC and the next big drop will come from Meta and NFLX
XLC
Monthly chart
As I said before The monthly RSI and Money flow is extended and rolling over.
Look at the moves from 2022 low, 136% gain with no pullback 😂. Also notice something Else this will be the first monthly Bearish engulfing since 2022 and 2020; both previous times led to corrections!
Now the thing about monthly Bearish engulfing at the top of an uptrend of this magnitude means likely (65%) chance of a trend reversal. This is a monthly view which means the sell could happen at anytime but I think it will come when either Meta or NFLX reports
My target for April For XLC is 86 minimum, this is 10% drop.. this may not seem like a lot but just look at what the drop from 105 to 95 has caused already..
This is just a minimum target folks. like I said this to me looks like a trend reversal and when that happens you don't really see capitulation until the weekly RSI tags 40.
Now back to meta
Monthly chart
Red flags that stand out to me..
1. Major rising wedge
2. Monthly RSI and MFI hasn't been this bad since July 2018
3. Lastly this stock went 12months 100% extended from it's monthly 50ma
Weekly chart.
My fib levels are from ATH and and IPO low
I think Meta could test 462 by mid may; How we get there ?
I'm look at an immediate rest of 540-550 in the next 2 weeks, if that support holds then we should have a move back up to 600-610 before ER then the real leg down comes
My long term view for meta
50% retracement plus 2021 ATH and also the volume support from Jan 2024 earnings surge
When I said AMD 85 incoming they thought I crazy
When I said TSM 160 incoming when price was at 220 they ask me what I was smoking
I'm telling you this stock tags 460 by end of may
And depending on whether XLC holds 82.00 will determine if meta sees sub 400
So like I said meta 540-550 then bounce but keep in mind the Weekly 50ma.. I expect a bounce there so maybe we don't get 540 price action
I think the first test of the Weekly 50ma at 559 will get bought up with a bounce back to 580-584.
