UBER earnings expect down 8% and can/will go back upThis is all intuitively done and I'm journaling for earnings plays.
UBER trade ideas
THE WEEK AHEAD: LYFT, UAL, MGM, DAL, CNX, SLV, GDXJEARNINGS:
LYFT (20/82/19.8%) announces earnings on Wednesday after the close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session if you want to play the volatility contraction.
Pictured here is a directionally neutral 29/38 short strangle camped out at the 20 delta in the September monthly. Paying 1.26 as of Friday close, it has 27.74/39.26 break evens, which are wide of 2 times the expected move on the call side, but somewhat short of 2 times on the put side due to skew; delta/theta .25/3.58.
You'll have to go somewhat tighter (the 25 delta) to get one-third the width out of an iron condor, with the 27/30/37/40 iron condor paying .97; 29.03/37.97 break evens, which are at the expected move on both sides; delta/theta 2/1.31.
I've stuck on an UBER line just to show how LYFT's competitor did with its earnings in the coronavirus environment ... .
CSCO (28/36/8.4%) also announces, but has less than ideal metrics for a volatility contraction play.
EARNINGS AFTERGLOW:
There are a number of underlyings with earnings in the rear view that still have sufficient implied to potentially make them worthwhile just as pure premium selling plays. Here are a number of them, ranked by the percentage that the September at-the-money short straddle is paying relative to stock price and screened for those paying greater than 15%:
UAL: 20.8%
MGM: 17.7%
DAL: 17.7%
CNX: 17.6%
WYNN: 16.9%
PINS: 16.1%
ROKU: 16.0%
BYND: 15.8%
SNAP: 15.7%
BA: 15.3%
SQ: 15.2%
AMD: 15.1%
LUV: 15.1%
I may pick one or more of these if I have nothing better to do, keeping in mind correlations here (i.e., UAL, DAL, and LUV are all airlines; BA is airline-related).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS, RANKED BY SEPTEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE/STOCK PRICE RATIO AND SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED:
SLV (70/81/19.9%)
GDXJ (24/62/15.6%)
GDX (24/43/12.8%)
XOP (11/48/12.7%)
EWZ (18/43/11.2%)
Here, I've screened out those paying <10%. I'm in an August GDXJ play, but may re-up with a SLV, even though there is going to be some correlation with miners. The September 18th 20 delta 22/36 short strangle was paying 1.45 as of Friday close, with the 25 delta 20/23/33.5/36 iron condor paying .99. There is some massive call side skew to potentially accommodate here, so could see going "double double" (double the contracts on the put side, but double the width on the call).
Two Examples: September 18th 2 x 18/2 x 20.5/33/38 "double double" iron condor, paying .98 or September 18th 2 x 15.5/2 x 25.5/33.5/44 "double double", paying 1.30, the latter of which approaches the metrics of the naked short strangle.
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
Most of the fun has bled out ... :
IWM (25/30/7.3%)
QQQ (25/28/7.2%)
EFA (17/21/4.8%)
SPY (15/22/5.1%)
Uber the paradoxIt failed to break out of a rising wedge, then it failed to break out of an ascending triangle, and now it found support at 30$. With all intents and purposes the chart and indicators look really bad and set to go down further. The wildcard is the ER. The only reason I'm neutral. I can see them harping on their recent acquisition of grubhub and forecasting large future revenues which will affect overall sentiment. If they announce future acquisitions in the works it would be icing on the cake. Personally I'm not going to open a position until after ER and because it lands midweek I'd purchase a calendar spread to cut my call/put cost. like if you like so i can do more :)
UBER Short| 200MA| S/R Flip| Supply Zone| Range Support Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis –UBER- breaking range support bearish, the immediate target is the supply zone upon a valid bearish retest.
Points to consider,
- Macro trend bearish
- Range support S/R flip
- 200 MA resistance
- Oscillators below 50
- Volume below average
UBER’s macro trend has established consecutive lower highs, this helps determine the directional bias on the market being bearish.
Price action broke range support; a bearish retest of the level will solidify it as resistance, confirming an S/R Flip.
The 200 MA is a strong resistance that is in confluence with range support. This further solidifies the bearish bias on the market.
Volume is currently trading below average; an influx is likely at the test of the support zone, profit taking area.
Overall, in my opinion, a bearish retest of range support will allow for a short entry with defined risk. Discretion in accordance to price action must be used upon trade managemen
t.
What are your thoughts?
Thank you for following my work!
And remember,
“You will never find fulfillment trading the markets if you don't learn to appreciate and be satisfied with what you already have.”
― Yvan Byeajee
