we are plotting a larger volume of a smaller movesideways trading is more than likely the norm until further notice daily, and ive marked out the rangebound timezone cycle as well as kept the swing target low and pivot.
TQQQ trade ideas
Long term prediction for TQQQ Long Term prediction for TQQQ , risky making a prediction this far out but with total world fundamentals being negative i don't see us returning into a bull market BUT there is a bullish scenario in this TA but im waiting on a few things to unfold before posting, PLEASE if your a expert at elliots wave theory and u have pointers please let me know. Thanks! www.tradingview.com
its time to talk about an intermediate or longer term bottomthis ideais simple. if we hold $20, we will break above $56.89 closing the gap left over from april 4th. what could be better? the doomsayers and prognosticators are all pointing toward recession, but where do you see the pain? its all in the past, and the worst may be behind us. only time will tell, but if this face ripper of a rally continues, bears will be trapped and tutes, mm, smart money will be long (if they arent already).
its pretty obvious the fed seems determined to tank this markettechnology is not playing the feds game, and they are rubbing elbows with china especially where semiconductors are concerned. the dollar is the worlds reserve currency, and big corporations dont like a populace with buying power. the job of the reserve banks is to assist borrowers while preserving the lenders capacity, and with this particular administration volatility seems to be the most profitable route. this means one thing. the bear market rally everyone feared is here. im predicting a dead cat bounce followed by continued downside.
TQQQ TRENDTQQQ still looking good with a full recovery for July 2024 at $86. I personally have been testing the DCA theory on this for a little while now with $100 a month. So far it is the best performing stock I own. Performing backtest this seems too good to be true, only time will tell and I got that. (don't mind the date and price, I put that there to remind me when I drew the trend lines for each time frame using the FEOP theory)
rangebound trading cant last bear flag or breakoutprice action daily nasdaq is ranging around the lows with the bounce not escaping vertical gravity, and the candlestick pattern forming either a bear flag or a bullish reversal. if we cross above pivot im looking at upper horizontals as resistance, and if we cross below it im looking at lower horizontals as support.
looks like gap down and bounce could go both wayswere off the lows for the session in the nasdaq, nq1!, and ndx, and creating a slightly higher low than yesterday. we have retested sss moving average, and nearly crossed signal to the upside. if we fall beneath pivot i would look toward sss supply area, and lower horizontals. if we stay above pivot and TRAMA i would look for upper horizontals.
a couple scenarios for critical resistancethere are a couple scenarios for the critical resistance weve just about come up to on the l nasdaq. i think were above pivot, and where we start out friday will define next weeks activity. if we hit that resistance sss moving average, and we fall beneath the pivot forming bearish divergence daily rsi i think were headed for daily consolidation. if we breech that first upper horizontal embedding bolinger bands and treating the crucial area as support i think were in for continuation until rsi comes out of overbought.
nasdaq consolidating above pivotweve hit overbought on the hourly, and nasdaq has consolidated above a pivot point marked out by the lower end of that early june range from the last rally. if we break down below that pivot i would look to bounce on one of the lower horizontals as support, and if we stay above that pivot i would target those upper horizontals until were overbought on the daily.
nasdaq on the verge of breaking outthe nasdaq 100 is showing that it can reach for the highs, and is on the verge of breaking out above major resistance to levels not seen since early june. continuation seems likely, and i have critical levels of support and resistance marked out as horizontal lines where it may pause, or bounce. sss is green and qqe is long. if we get over one of these lines i would look to the next horizontal above, and if we break below one of these lines i would look to the next horizontal below.
TQQQ , LONG ( Swing account ) End of day entry on same price action but only much smaller size than earlier attempt
*took out prior two lower highs and 50 sma takeback
Entry - 28.49
Stop - 26.59
PT1 - sell 1/4 at 1R , raise stop to half risk
PT2 - sell 1/4 at 2R
then trend follow balance and add when applicable
Risk to account 0.5%
TQQQ , LONG ( TFSA ACCOUNT ) This is a slower account that I am using a portion of my TFSA for , the backtest method is to sell 1/3rd at 2R but I am changing this to get more proactive on taking profits , this is its second trade of 2022 and my first trade was a loser but honestly should not have been . The stop was too far imo and I still had a 2R de-risk point .
So , I am doing something similar to my swing account and having a 1R and 2R profit target but instead of selling 1/4 , I am going to sell 1/6 each time . This way a fully de-risked position will still leave me with 2/3rds of my shares . This account focuses entirely on TQQQ that's all it trades and in a good environment it can compound pretty nicely . It is back tested quite extensively , where I manually go over the chart to log the data and compiled about 12 years worth of trades and various different trade management structures , one thing worth noting is that the TQQQ had lots of periods where it made all time highs though these 12 years and I have not tested it through long periods of market underperformance . However , just the same with my swing account , this is precisely why we de risk or at least try to ;)
It has had periods in the last 12 years of data where I have had 6 losers in a row , 5 is more common . Largest amount of winners in a row is 7 .
There is not a huge amount of difference between this TQQQ TFSA account vs my swing account but it takes way less trades and takes much heavier positions , I originally used the whole account to take a position but I have since changed this to 3% risk vs AUM because I know the most lost trade in a row was 6 . So based on the last 12 years , that's a max 12 % account drawdown which is pushing the limits of where the math of what it takes to recover starts to work against you .
Ok so there is a quick explainer of why I have so many TQQQ trades of late lol , I like TQQQ ~
Oh yea , I am pretty sure that a TFSA account is similar to IRA for us Canadians btw for those wondering ...
Entry - 28.43
Stop - 26.57
PT1 -30.31, sell 1/6 , raise stop
Pt2 - 32.18, sell 1/6 , stop same
run balance ..
TQQQ to 35Two Ways I want to play this move if it happens
1) I expect until Wednesday 7/27 that we are going to remain balanced between roughly 27 to 32
IF we get that clean break to the upside hard and fast (giggity) then I want to be looking to play that 35 to 36 rejection short. I am likely to swing this move, maybe day trade! but I will have to see what its looking like if it sets up. Leaning more towards a swing trade over next day or two
2) I want below 28.57 to pick up my first long entry. If we dip to 26 I will add once more to swing the contracts into that 35 short entry I am targeting
This is only IF we set up with price holding that 26 to 27 area of support. If that is broken and held below this plan is invalid as the overall market is going lower and shorts to the downside would be in play at that point
