Trading JournalNew leader emerging post election,
got a 15% position, sold as it crossed ~~405 range as it is extended
and other leaders are getting hammered in the extended market.
WIll look to rebuy back
TSLA trade ideas
TSLA: PatternsREGULARITIES:
Fractal Cyclicality
Before offrange breakouts it completes 2 sub-cycles
Distinctive cup on top 1st sub-cycle and inverted one at the start of 2nd sub-wave (separating the phases)
Fib Mapping:
Fractal I
Fractal II
Fractal patterns are approximations and are not solely about predicting price movements on the Y-axis; they also encompass the frequency of reversals on the X-axis. The timing of smaller cycles, which serve as the building blocks of these patterns, holds greater significance than the overall composite price changes.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - Potential Elliott Wave Setup🔍 Analysis Overview
This chart showcases a potential Elliott Wave structure on Tesla's daily timeframe. Here's the detailed breakdown:
Wave Progression:
Wave (1), (2), and (3) completed, with wave (4) anticipated to retrace.
Wave (4) Retracement Zone:
- Targeting the Fibonacci retracement zone between 0.382 (340.99) and 0.618 (280.16).
- This zone aligns with a confluence of the trendline and previous support levels.
Bullish Targets:
- First target at 440.13.
- Secondary targets at 470.80 (1.236) and 489.88 (1.382 extension).
Risk Management:
- Stop-loss positioned at 275.00 to manage downside risk.
📊 Indicators:
- RSI and MFI reflect potential overbought conditions in the current wave (3), supporting the likelihood of a corrective wave (4).
🚨 Important Notes:
This is a speculative wave count and assumes the continuation of the broader uptrend. Breaks below the stop-loss zone could invalidate the setup.
TSLA: Sell As we reached ATH, we have to be aware that the cup of cup & handle Motif is finished and we might see a correction of 1/3 or 2/3 of cup hight. This corresponds also to daily and weekly mean reversion target's. Risk/Reward ratio is to unfavourable to stay in. Better to sell
NEW TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON TESLAKey Indicators and Tools for My Chart:
Signals:
Bullish: 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day MA (Golden Cross).
Bullish: 9-day EMA crosses above the 200-day MA (Death Cross).
Bullish: 21 day EMA crosses above 200-day
. Relative Strength Index (RSI) (Momentum)
Purpose: Identify overbought or oversold conditions.
Settings: Default (14 periods).
Signals:
Bullish: RSI rises above 50 and heads toward 70.
Overbought (potential reversal): RSI > 70.
Oversold (potential reversal): RSI < 30.
Settings:
Fast EMA = 12
Slow EMA = 26
Signal Line = 9
Signals:
Bullish: MACD line crosses above the signal line.
Bearish: MACD line crosses below the signal line.
Confirm strength with the histogram (increasing bars = stronger momentum).
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (Key Support/Resistance)
Purpose: Identify key retracement levels where price may reverse or continue.
How to Use:
Draw from the most recent swing low to swing high (in an uptrend) or swing high to swing low (in a downtrend).
Key Levels: 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.
Signals:
Bullish: Price finds support near a Fibonacci level and reverses higher.
Bearish: Price faces resistance at a Fibonacci level and reverses lower.
Volume (Trend Confirmation)
Purpose: Confirm the strength of price movements.
Signals:
Bullish: Increasing volume on up days (price increases).
Bearish: Increasing volume on down days (price decreases).
Reversal: Price movements with declining volume often indicate weakening momentum.
Tesla - In a possible EW flat structureTesla could be in a Elliott wave 4th wave irregular flat correction. It seems there could be a little more to go to the upside. The idea is simple: sweep liquidity from above the ATH, dump, and sweep liquidity from below where people might have put stop losses. Look for signs of distribution above the current ATH.
Not financial advice.
Sliding In December: Is Tesla (TSLA) Losing Its Spark?
As always, we like to keep it clean and simple, with technicals and analysis that's easy to see and understand. Let's get into it:
Losing all its spark? Nah. But, we see a correction for TSLA happening this December, starting within the next 1-2 days. Why?
- It’s currently bumping into price levels we last saw in 2022, which served as a strong ceiling back then and might trigger profit-taking now.
- It's well into a Wave 5 Elliott Wave, signaling exhaustion in 4h/8h/1D timeframes.
- Overbought.
Additionally, many are noting that Tesla’s valuation feels stretched compared to its earnings and growth prospects. Analysts point out that its current price may rely on overly optimistic assumptions about future market share, tech breakthroughs, and profitability. Some also highlight that competitors are catching up, which could eat into Tesla’s premium valuation. Meanwhile, skeptics argue that the stock’s recent run has simply gotten ahead of fundamentals, and a correction might be due as more realistic expectations set in.
We see a 10% slide to the $360 range.
Let's see what December brings.
Be Alert.
Trade Green.
TSLA 1200 by end of 2024Analysis is based purely on price action.
1. There is an EMA crossover on the monthly timeframe, following “EMA Squeeze” and consolidation which lasted approximately 3 years.
2. Two bounces off Anchored VWAP.
*** An EMA crossover on the monthly timeframe that goes, pays well.
TSLA Technical Analysis: Gamma Exposure for Levels, Price Action1. Key Levels Identified:
* Highest Positive NETGEX (Call Resistance): $400
* Represents a strong resistance level due to the accumulation of call options. If TSLA approaches this level, market maker hedging could slow upward momentum or cause consolidation.
* Second Call Wall: $420
* Indicates additional resistance and a potential target for bullish momentum if $400 is breached.
* HVL (Hedging Volatility Level): $347.50
* A critical support area where market makers adjust hedging to neutralize exposure. Price movements near this level could lead to temporary stabilization.
* PUT Walls:
* 3rd PUT Wall: $340 (-1.37% Gamma Exposure)
* A moderate support level with notable hedging activity.
* 2nd PUT Wall: $330
* Stronger support, likely to hold unless broader market sentiment turns bearish.
2. Price Action:
* TSLA is trading around $403, testing the resistance at the $400 level. A break above $400 could push the price towards $420, while a rejection might result in a retracement towards $390 or lower.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
1. MACD:
* The MACD line is showing bullish momentum, with the histogram suggesting potential upside. However, watch for any divergence near resistance levels.
2. Stochastic RSI:
* Currently overbought, signaling potential short-term exhaustion. A downward crossover could indicate a pullback.
3. Trendlines:
* An ascending trendline supports the bullish structure, intersecting near $390. A breakdown below this trendline would invalidate the bullish momentum.
Options Strategy Plan:
1. Bullish Scenario:
* If TSLA sustains above $400:
* Call Option Entry: Strike price at $410 or $420, expiration within 1-2 weeks.
* Target: $420.
* Stop-Loss: $395.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* If TSLA rejects $400 and drops below $390:
* Put Option Entry: Strike price at $380 or $370, expiration within 1-2 weeks.
* Target: $370 (next major support zone).
* Stop-Loss: $395.
3. Neutral Strategy:
* If TSLA consolidates between $390 and $400:
* Iron Condor Strategy:
* Sell a call at $410 and a put at $380.
* Buy a call at $420 and a put at $370 to limit risk.
Recommendation for Expiration Date:
* Short-Term Expiry (1-2 weeks): Best for directional trades based on breakouts or rejections from key gamma levels.
* Longer Expiry (2-3 weeks): Ideal for capturing momentum plays or wider ranges.
Summary of Gamma Insights:
* The $400 level is pivotal for TSLA. A breakout above this level aligns with gamma positioning that supports upward momentum.
* Support levels around $390 and $347.50 provide clear areas for stop-loss placement or potential reversals.
* Traders can use gamma levels to anticipate volatility spikes and align their strategies accordingly.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and risk management before executing trades.
Tesla’s Golden Zone Bounce: Are We Heading to $460?Tesla has shown remarkable price action after sweeping the sell-side liquidity on the monthly chart at $152.49. Price tapped into the Golden Zone (OTE) and closed strongly above the sell-side level. This confluence, combined with robust candle closures, signals potential upside momentum.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Target:
Price is aiming for the $460 range, marking a full swing move.
Retracement Zone:
If a retracement occurs, look for a pullback into the High-Probability Fair Value Gap (FVG) near $300.61. This zone could act as a strong support for another leg upward.
Conclusion:
Short-term: Price targets $460.
Medium-term: Watch for retracement into $300.61 before further upside potential.
DYOR (Do Your Own Research)!
Tesla UpdateAs mentioned on the last couple posts, I am just waiting for Tesla to hit a top and begin a consolidation to the downside again. For this post, I thought I would zoom out to give a more holistic picture of where we're at, and where I believe we're headed.
Looking at the chart there are a few things going on. At the top of the chart, you can see a time tool I have drawn to point out the duration of these larger moves. Our larger ((A)) wave lasted for about 428 days, while the larger ((B)) wave is going on 705 days. Then, looking at the yellow trend lines drawn, you can see we have slightly breached the upper trend. At the bottom I have drawn a line pointing out the ATH high MACD reading that we're approaching. RSI is in the way overbought territory too. You may be asking yourself; Why am I talking about all of these things? The reason I am pointing these different things out to you is to show how overextended this ticker is. To express that I believe it is just a matter of time until this stock comes back down.
Looking at the structure/pattern that has been created, I find it highly likely that Tesla forms a flat ABC pattern ending around the red 1.0 @ $100.09. The red fibs could change slightly should Tesla make another high. It won't be a big difference, but could slightly change, nonetheless. The next major move lower should be primary wave ((C)) of Cycle wave II and will likely last 1-3 years...if not longer. We cannot know for certain how long, but unless the wave (3) of ((5)) started out as a LD, we're head lower soon. The only other option aside from a LD is a corrective pattern, which is how I am counting this.
I hope this gives a clearer picture of where we've been, where we're at, and where we're headed. Please let me know if you have any questions.
TSLA - Next Bull Market ApproachesTSLA
Will hit ATH resistance soon.
There will likely be some sort of sell off...
But this trend looks strong.
I think this will soon break into the next bull market 👍.
The arrow was well drawn 😅 but I didn't post this one on TradingView
Not advice
Simple Bull vs Bear Targets and ConditionsSome simple bullish targets (yellow) for Tesla, conditioned upon remaining above the white neckline and getting and holding above the red one.
Simple bearish targets (orange) are conditioned upon losing the white neckline, and then dropping and losing the green one.
Nearer term bear targets could also simply be the white line, the green line, or the area of the weekly high and low of the last weekly low above the green line
TSLA - Same pattern again ?If NASDAQ:TSLA repeats the same ralli again this will be the resulting graph.
Now, we have one obvious difference, first impulse is almost complete by 9 months earlier when compared to previous ralli.
While the first ralli was yielded 25x, this ralli (if happens again), will yield 3x.
TESLA: Can it reach $500?Tesla is overbought both on its 1D (RSI = 76.375, MACD = 28.880, ADX = 43.174) and 1W (RSI = 76.043) technical outlooks. This however isn't by any means a bearish sign, at least not on the long term. Tesla appears to be aiming for $500 in the immediate future and in our view even higher on the long term. The reason is the convincing 1W Golden Cross that is about to be formed and the last time we had such a clear Cross was on January 21st 2020.
The stock was ona bullish breakout after a Channel Down correction. The breakout initiated a rally that was supported by the 1W MA50 all the way until the November 2021 Top on the 4.5 Fibonacci extension! Tesla's 2025 target shouldn't be $500 but instead the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $640. As long as the 1W MA50 supports, we will stay long term bullish towards that target (TP = 640.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Tesla: Are We Dropping to $350 or Climbing to $480?Good morning, trading family.
Tesla is sitting at a key level, and it looks like we’re about to see a big move. Here’s what I’m seeing:
Option 1:
We could see a drop of $50-$60, taking Tesla down to $350-$360 before it finds support and bounces back.
Option 2:
If Tesla holds here and starts pushing higher, it could climb to $440. After that, we might see either:
A pullback of $50-$60, OR
A continued run all the way to $480.
This is one of those times where the chart is doing the talking. Trade what you see, not what you hope for.
If this breakdown makes sense, hit like, follow, and share your thoughts below. Where do you think Tesla is headed next? Let’s figure it out together.
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Long $TSLAI am getting 100% of my exposure currently through NASDAQ:TSLL , I am very bullish on this setup for Tesla.
Bull catalysts:
Trump Victory - if this happens, I assume TSLA will pump just because of their close relationship
Federal EV Charging Re-compete - in the vein above, I don't see why Trump wouldn't open the failed federal funds of ~ SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:9B to companies to recompute the contract- obviously Tesla could actually deliver the network of chargers more efficiently than GM et al.
QE - I overlaid the FFR on the bottom of this chart, since I think it is valuable information regarding the last time TSLA's face-melting rally began, it coincided with QE beginning.
Their humanoid robots also could be something, but I am not as versed with them. Any other catalysts I'm missing?
TSLZ to take advantage of TSLA dip to $280TSLA has had a nice run for about 2 months, but gravity always prevails and profit takers will push the price to about $280-300 range. You can use TSLZ to take advantage of this position IMHO!
Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
TSLA LongTSLA currently priced @ 389.79 ... with a target of 400 and an extended target of 410-420
TSLA chart currently shows a breakout above the upper trend-line...
- the move to the upside will target 400 as a psych level with heavy liquidity being at 410 and 420 due to current open interest levels on call options.
- a move back to the downside will be considered a buy the dip opportunity or re-test of Friday and todays price action
- the opening price on Friday's candle and the low of today's candle will serve as support levels at 377.42 and 378 respectively
- holding 390 and breaking above the slight resistance at 397 opens up 400 and higher (This will rage!!)
Indicators like MACD & RSI are trending upwards and looking bullish
9-day EMA and 50-day EMA are both trending upwards and the 9-day EMA is trending upward and away from the 50 which is bullish.
Call options that are interesting:
-TSLA 400 Call 12/13
-Volume: 144,881 (contracts traded)
-Open Interest: 37,205 (open positions and liquidity)
-Volume to Open Interest ratio ~ 3:1
-Open Interest for tomorrow has to open up around 75k plus. Why? As an investor or trader, you are looking to see people hold their investment position as a sign of trend confirmation and continuation
-TSLA 410 Call 12/13
-Volume: 43,965
-Open Interest: 4,923
-Volume to Open Interest ratio ~ 9:1
-Open Interest for tomorrow has to open up around 25k
-TSLA 420 Call 12/13
-Volume: 57,432
-Open Interest: 37,598
-Volume to Open Interest ratio ~ 1.5:1
-Open Interest has to open up around - 45k
Tesla(TSLA) 4h technical analysis- Support Resistance Trend LineIndicator settings and test on Tesla (TSLA) 4h chart
Indicator: Support Resistance Trend Line (SRTL)
Indicator link:
Chart analysis and drawing important areas is a time-consuming task that requires constant review and modification and updating to match the current market conditions and the selected timeframe, which will inevitably be accompanied by inadvertent mistakes.
This indicator automatically draws and updates the important areas of technical analysis (Support-Resistance, Demand-Supply, Trend lines, ). So you do not need to spend time analyzing the chart and updating it, and all these items will be drawn for you with high accuracy, and you can easily move quickly through all the symbols and timeframes you want, and the necessary and up-to-date information will always be at your disposal, and all you need to do is focus on managing your capital based on your personal strategy.
Features:
Drawing current trend lines and the last broken trend lines
Drawing support and resistance (supply and demand) areas along with showing the strength of the area compared to other areas
Drawing price compression areas
Drawing range areas
Drawing pivot moving average area
Sending notifications for important events such as the formation of a new trend line, breaking a trend line, breaking a support or resistance area, exiting accumulation areas, entering or exiting the pivot moving average area.
#indicators #trade #technicalanalysis #support_resistance #trendline #demand_suply
Trading Plan for TSLA: December 10, 2024Key Levels to Watch
1. Resistance Levels:
* $390 (2nd Call Wall): A significant gamma-based resistance zone where market-makers may adjust their hedging activity, potentially capping upside momentum.
* $400 (Next Key Level): Breaking above $390 with strong volume could lead to a rally toward $400, supported by bullish momentum.
2. Support Levels:
* $380 (Gamma Support): Critical support level identified by the GEX indicator. A bounce from here would align with institutional activity.
* $370: If $380 breaks, $370 could be the next target, acting as the secondary gamma-supported level.
Scenarios and Trade Ideas
1. Bullish Scenario:
* Look for a breakout above $390, confirmed by increased volume and bullish MACD/RSI signals.
* Entry Point: $391 with a target of $400 and $410.
* Stop-Loss: Below $389 to minimize risk.
* Rationale: Gamma unwind above $390 could trigger additional upside momentum, supported by the trendline.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* Watch for a breakdown below $380, accompanied by high selling volume and bearish indicators.
* Entry Point: $379 with a target of $370.
* Stop-Loss: Above $382.
* Rationale: Breaking gamma support at $380 could lead to a quick drop toward $370, reflecting market-maker adjustments.
Intraday Plan
1. Morning:
* Monitor the open for directionality. Look for any gap-up or gap-down behavior near $390 or $380 to confirm early momentum.
* Bullish: If price holds above $390 with rising volume, consider a long trade targeting $400.
* Bearish: If price fails to hold $390, short to $380 with tight stops.
2. Midday Consolidation:
* Expect price to hover near key gamma levels ($390 or $380). Scalping opportunities may arise within these zones.
* Use MACD and RSI to confirm entries during consolidation phases.
3. Afternoon Directional Move:
* Watch for potential breakouts or breakdowns from $390 or $380 as traders position for the next session.
* Align trades with GEX indicator levels for precision.
Key Indicators
1. Gamma Exposure (GEX):
* Use $390 and $380 to gauge where institutional hedging may cause reversals or consolidations.
* Anticipate volatility near these levels.
2. Trendlines:
* Confirm bullish or bearish bias based on the price's respect or breach of trendlines.
3. MACD/RSI:
* Use MACD crossovers and RSI readings to validate momentum shifts around gamma zones.
Summary
For tomorrow's trading session, focus on price action near $390 (GEX Gamma key resistance) and $380 (GEX Gamma key support). Leverage gamma-based levels for precision entries and exits, and align with trendline and indicator confirmations for a well-rounded trading strategy. Keep risk management at the forefront and be prepared for high volatility at gamma pivot points.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor or conduct your own research before trading.
An Update For MY Followers Hey Everyone
Wanted to quickly update everyone as I have been MIA the last two weeks working on a really cool project to create even more value for everyone. I will be back in action tomorrow, so if you have any assets you want me to analyze let me know and I will do that for you. Secondly if you are wanting to increase your wellness and your trading send me a DM.
Hope everyone has a awesome day and I will see you tomorrow
Kris / Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Tesla - Ending 2024 With A Parabolic Rally!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is clearly not done for 2024:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Despite (or maybe even because of) the strong rally during November of 2024, Tesla is clearly not done with its bullish plans yet. Market structure, cycles and also price action are all pointing to a stronger move higher and we will see at least a retest of the previous all time highs.
Levels to watch: $420
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
