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SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUSTSS

SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST

48.40USDD
+1.40+2.98%
At close at Mar 17, 17:36 GMT
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XLF trade ideas

XLF in Buy ZoneMy trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell when at three of these events happen: * Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones * Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands * Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at near oversold overbought level * Price at Fibonacci levels So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price in buying zone below bottom of channels Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level Money flow momentum is spiked negative and under bottom of Bollinger Band Entry at $48.82 Target is upper channel around $51
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by chancethepug
XLF downside to 28.50 over the next year?Why do I think XLF may be a potential short? There are many economic catalysts this year: The Fed is monitoring interest rates and may still make adjustments. Some market consensus tools suggest 1-3 rate cuts this year (of 0.25% each), while some sources suggest that the economy is still resilient, and rates need to still be increased. Regardless of that, rates have historically been cut when something has broken and they need to re-stimulate the economy. NY Community Bank has a fair amount of toxic assets on its books. While it had plenty of cash last year and was able to bail out other regional banks, it also holds an amount of commercial real estate debt, which was issued when interest rates were much lower. A large amount of it comes due this year, and now they may have difficulty servicing it. This is one example of how the bank defaults have not finished happening, and that last year was only a temporary solution. Many large companies have recently posted massive layoffs, between 5 and 15% depending on the company. Most of it is in the tech sector. However, this indicates a slowing economy (despite recent numbers looking very good), and companies are proactively cutting the fat to save money. If they cannot grow their margins by increasing revenue, then they will look to cut costs. Commercial real estate is also likely to see a number of failures, for similar reasons (and this ties into the above reason). The 10Y and 2Y interest rate yield curve is still inverted. Historically, once it uninverts, rates tend to rise rapidly and the equity market trends downward sharply. This is very likely to happen again (there was only one time in the US where this was not true), but whether this occurs in a month, in a year, or in a decade is anyone's guess. But it is still a potential catalyst. In light of the above reasons, one potential way to play the downside is to enter a bearish spread. I am choosing XLF specifically because it is a low volatility sector, which means that put contracts are much less expensive. Around the 31.00 level, we see support and resistance from around the year 2020, breaching it in 2021, and finding support throughout 2022; it is natural, then, that this acts as a pivot that can be broken through in a bear market. Using fibonnaci levels from the previous 2020 low to the all time high, we find the midpoint at 29.60, which is another possible level. Finally, using ATR and projecting the sqrt(ATR x N), we can estimate roughly where the price might fall by a certain date. From the previous ATH, this gives us a range of 26 to 56 (approximately). From the current closing price, we get 32 to 46. However, going two units away (solid teal line) brings this to 25 on the low side. This overlaps towards the one-unit low range from the previous ATH. If I had to pick a specific range for Jan 2025, I would estimate the bear case to be 27 to 29 dollars, based solely on market technicals.
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by KyleBaran
Time to invest in the amazing SPDR ($XLF) I’m changing the process for picking tickers to make it more affordable while avoiding risky penny lots. Comment your favourite TSX tickers under $150 & NYSE or NAS under $100. Key Stats: • AUM: ~$38B • Expense Ratio: 0.13% • Yield: ~2.0% • Recent Analyst Sentiment: Multiple upgrades with a Buy rating across major holdings • Catalyst Note: Q1 earnings from top constituents expected to further validate sector strength Technical Reasons for Upside: 1. Resistance Breakout: XLF has recently challenged key resistance, setting the stage for a robust upward move. 2. Bullish Momentum Indicators: A clear MACD crossover and a climbing RSI suggest that the technical momentum is shifting in favour of bulls. 3. Volume Surge: Increasing trading volumes signal heightened investor interest and confirm the strength of the emerging trend. Fundamental Reasons for Upside: 1. Favorable Interest Rate Environment: With rising rates boosting net interest margins, the financial sector is positioned to see improved profitability. 2. Economic Recovery Boost: As the economy gains traction, banks and financial institutions—key XLF components—are expected to report stronger earnings. 3. Analyst Optimism: Recent upgrades across major holdings like JPMorgan and Bank of America reflect a growing confidence in the sector’s outlook. Potential Paths to Profit: 1. Option 1 (Low-Risk): Buy shares of XLF at current levels and hold until the ETF reaches your target of $57. 2. Option 2 (Moderate-Risk): Purchase LEAP call options with an expiration in 6-12 months at a strike near the target price, and sell for profit as the rally unfolds. 3. Alternative Strategy: Consider a bull call spread by buying a call option at a lower strike (e.g., ~$36) and selling a call option at a higher strike (e.g., ~$58) with the same expiration. This can help manage your premium outlay while capitalizing on the upside. Please LIKE, FOLLOW, SHARE, and COMMENT if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is the best way to keep this signal relevant, keep the content free, and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: We are not a brokerage or investment firm. We do not offer financial advice or investment advice and/or signals. This is not certified financial education. We offer access to the daily thought process of an individual and his experiences. We do not offer refunds. All sales are final.
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by ChartVZN
Trading Set upHere with a fourth screen set up and order entry window. Yesterday I was able to trade from TradingView and Interactive Brokers. The amount of technical indicators to chose from and the so careful design platform, to me is a lot more than a charting platform, it is a full trading solution that hard to beat. Thanks to the creators and people who also share the technical indicators, code and knowledge, after being in several platforms, this is becoming my favorite. To make things a lot better, a second screen with the market movers gainers, is the best.
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by syracusepro
SPDR Sectors Rolling Down as Anomaly Event Sets UpSPDR sectors appear to be forming a Head-n-shoulders pattern after the US elections. It appears the markets are stalling into a congestion phase - possibly leading to my Anomaly breakdown event. This video will help you understand how the financial and real estate sectors could collapse to deflate the current market trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
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by BradMatheny
Custom Crash Index Indicates Global Markets Are PanickingI believe the global markets are panicking related to Trump's pending inauguration and the fact that the US Fed may have to keep interest rates elevated through a US austerity process. If you understand what this means, you'll clearly see why the US Dollar is trading above 106 and why Gold/Silver have moved downward recently. The process of the US moving into smaller government with potentially $1.?T in excess capital means the US would move into a dynamic BEAST of a global economy. Able to pay down debt, restructure government agencies to become more efficient and lean, while pushing global economies closer and closer to having to clean up their own mess. This is what I call the Predatory Fed.. and will likely prompt some very big price moves over the next 4-5+ years. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
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by BradMatheny
XLF- Cant Hide From The TruthWe are in interesting times in the markets If you have followed us at all you know that we have been pounding the table for the last couple of years that the markets are heading for a GENERATIONAL TOP Of course as with all Bull markets we have seen almost parabolic price action in some markets at points over that time period since And of course you see some interesting calls regarding where the markets are heading Just yesterday we saw calls for SPX 7500, 8000, 10000, etc While all of those levels are theoretically possible, a trader makes money on whats probable And the clearest chart we have on where markets are heading is found with XLF Without turning this into an Elliott Wave seminar we have 2 clear as day patterns that signal the end of the 5 wave impulsive move that started off the Covid lows ANYTIME you see a triangle appear in a wave that means the NEXT move you see is the LAST move of that wave...and once that final move completes you can expect a significant retracement As you see we have a by-the-book triangle in the Wave 4 position But wait theres more! (in our best infomercial voice lol) Along with the triangle an ENDING DIAGONAL has formed in Wave 5 Ending Diagonals, like triangles, also signal that a wave is ending and a retracement is next So in a nutshell, we have a clear triangle in Wave 4 that told us the next move (Wave 5 in this instance) would be the last move before a significant retracement AND we are in the final stages of an ending diagonal in Wave 5 which signals that the Wave 5 move is over Here is the last piece we want you to know: Triangles are almost COMPLETELY RETRACED 100% OF THE TIME And as XLF goes so do the broader markets....get ready
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by Heartbeat_Trading
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade: 10-16 UpdateLearn to watch for signs of major market contagion by watching key sectors. In my opinion, the biggest sectors: Like Transportation, Financials, Gold, and Crude Oil, will lead any major market collapse - often by 7-10+ days. This videos highlights what I believe most traders need to watch in terms of understanding when/where opportunities are for long trades while attempting to gauge risks related to any type of broad market collapse event. Spend some time looking over this custom Crash Index and let me know if you see any correlations related to when the SPY/QQQ move more than 7-8% downward in any sudden price moves... (XLF+IYT+GDX+XOP)/4 Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
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by BradMatheny
Are financials topping here? Financials have been one of the leading and strongest sectors on the back of rate cut narratives. The resilience and strength can easily be observed... XLF has been making new highs despite the QQQ & SPY not. Now it begs the question; is all the rate cut priced in? We think financials are set for some downward rotation. If this rotation occurs it opens up many other opportunities as financials do carry some decent weight in the indices. Today names like JPM & XLF gave us a potential daily topping tail.
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by Trading-Capital
Retail traders are gun shy. XLF and XLP is leading the way...Retail investor who are looking for longs are largely gun shy and sidelined after this dramatic selloff. Choppiness in indices are keeping them there. Indices have not been able to clear a resistance, but both XLF and XLP have cleared above resistance levels. I expect the broader markets to follow XLF as inflation data is released. I expect price action to be fast next week. As retail shortsellers are bagholding positions, the squeeze on the next leg up should force them to cut their losses.
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by KJKaramay