SHOP, Short, 2h✅ SHOP has rejected a strong resistance three times, confirming selling pressure at this level. The price is expected to move lower toward a key support zone.
SHORT 🔥
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307 trade ideas
Sideways trend reveals Dark Pool Buy Zone and Pro Trader NudgesSideways trends are more common in the past several years than they were in the past. This is due to the dominance of Dark Pools and how they use TWAPs to ping a penny spread while in accumulation mode. Once Dark Pools have all the shares of stock they have determined to buy based on Quantitative Analysis using some AI, then the Professional Independent Traders who were once floor traders take over, using a technique I call "the nudge" the nudge is always a very small penny spread candle that triggers the HFTs to gap or run a stock. As the stock starts moving up VWAP orders of Smaller Funds with less than 3 billion in assets under management start buying the stock. VWAP drives volume and price upward. HFTs triggers usually, not always cause a big gap up that is not necessarily a breakaway gap. In this instance, it is a running gap. If the earnings report new triggers HFTs to gap this stock again, then an island gap will form. This is a high probability for this stock as it has many previous island gaps. Trends tend to repeat.
$SHOP short idea (once again) - In advance of Earnings
Hi everyone,
I'm once again back to short NYSE:SHOP ..
It is not because I don't believe in the company, because I really do, but just like the first time,
I am targeting massive FVGs made by huge gaps in the chart as TPs, and utilizing an improved version of the first pattern of Earnings.
Just to summarise it so that everyone can understand it without having to go back to the first published idea, I've noticed how the Shopify stock tends to follow a certain pattern of buys and sells regardless of the results of Earnings.. now, I don't know if this is caused by buy backs or internal company stock operations or some other cause, but I've simply seen how it tends to alternate between buy and sell, and when, for example, for 2 earnings in a row a buy happens (the stocks trends up) then it is followed by an equal amount of sells (so 2 down trends).
Now.... could this just be odds and for the last 4 years this was just randomized and ended up doing exactly this? Idk maybe, but I'm not a genius in a lamp, so I'm speculating.
All I know is that:
- there are 2 massive gaps in the chart, worse than the last time,
- price is currently struggling to head higher (perhaps just waiting for Earnings to choose direction),
- we have just terminated one of those double down events where 2 selling earnings happened and right after 2 buy earnings happened,
Now... there are 2 ways to approach this, and these are the following:
1- The first method is to try and "predict" the top of the market by selling 3 days before of earnings just like the first time and hope for the down trend call to be true;
(something like this )
2- Actually wait till earnings day comes and wait for the 1d candle of the earnings day itself to close and tell if it was either a bullish or a bearish one and from the next day, start either buying or selling depending on the trend.
(something like this )
If you choose the latter, then you don't really have to worry about "predicting" the market and all you got to do is develop a entry strategy, you could either buy the dip/sell the top (depending on the trend of the earnings' candle) so that you can get the lowest entries, or you could just enter on each candle that moves the direction of the trend you are following (so for example if the trend is bullish, enter only on bullish candles close to follow your bias).
I'll post a follow up of the last entry option as I have developed a entry strategy to do just that, with the help of my friend @D499 who condensed it into an indicator (as I can't code).
I'll post comments to this post so that I can keep up with how things proceed and perhaps if the second scenario takes place I'll Live follow up so that all of you can see the idea.
Reminder, it's just an idea ;)
PLR (Path of Least Resistance) Strategy Explanation - $SHOPHi guys this is a follow up to a post I have just published about my trading idea on shorting NYSE:SHOP ,
It really doesn't matter if you want to short the market or long the market as it works either way, but for the sake of the example I'll take a 6 months period from the Shopify chart following earnings to better explain you my strategy...
This right here is the NYSE:SHOP chart from approx. Jan/2024 to end of Aug/2024,
2 Earnings have been announced, both having great positive surprises, but regardless of the positive surprise (typically bullish indicator), the stock fell of 45%+.
Let's add the earnings dates to the chart so that you can better visualize them:
What you care about in this image is the earnings dates lined out, as you can see the surprise was positive yet both fell more than 10% in just a day, that I will take as the upcoming trend for at least the time being, till the next earning is announced (so, if for example the 13/Feb earning ended up being bearish, my overview on the market till at least the next earning on 8/May, will be bearish, so all of the trades I will take will be shorts).
Now I will line out the trend and the BoSs (breaks of structure) just to better visualize the trend:
As you can see the Earning date candles signed the beginning of a down trend twice, pre-announced by the Earning candle itself.
The entry strategy is now simple, the idea behind it is to "follow the path of least resistance".. by that I mean that, if your bias is bullish, who enter on candles that are of the opposite direction to the one you are heading to? - Sure you might say that it is to get better entries as ofc, on a short bias, higher sale points = better profits, but the goal here is not maximizing profits, but raising the odds exponentially so that you can take surer trades.
I've tested this strategy from Feb/2021 and so far the win rate is 95.6% (123 out of 136 trades profited .
The way the entries are spread is this:
Basically every time a bearish candle - that closes lower than the previous bearish candle did - is created, a short position of 1% of total equity is generated.
The period begins from the beginning of the current earnings season, and closes the day before the next earnings season as it works within a 3 months frame.
Each entry HAS to be the lowest bearish candle of the period, example:
Only these candles marked in blue count as entries for short positions as their close is lower of more than 0.5% than the previous one,
The pink ones are higher than the lowest up to that point, so they do not count as entries as they are technically part of a pullback that is moving in the opposite direction where you are heading.
So, going back to the entries, we enter on the close of the lowest bearish candle close up to that point.
For safety, we trail the stop loss to the previous high, this is where well defined trend lines come handy:
The thick black line is the trend line, and as new lows are broken, I mark those as BoS (break of structure) and until a new one is created, the SL will go to the previous high, and so it goes.
(viceversa for buys).
We then proceed to target the FVGs left behind by previous quarters:
As you can see there are massive gaps in the chart that we will target and identify as FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) and set the TP at the close (lowest point) of the fair value gap.
Now comes in your exit strategy...
There really are 3 ways that you can tackle this:
1- You set up TP to the lowest FVG of the series (if there are multiple like in this case)
2- You set up TP to the first FVG still open during the quarter following the Earnings Period
3- You tackle both TPs and take each FVG as a partial close to the position (example: if there are 2 FVGs you take out 50% of the position on the first and 50% on the last).
But what to do if your positions didn't reach TP (FVG close) before the next Earning or there is no FVG to begin with???
- In the case the TP you have marked out at the close of the FVG didn't reach, you'll proceed to close the position 1 day before the next Earnings is coming, unless your conviction that the FVG will fill in is so high, then you can let those run at your own risk:
- In the case in which a FVG is not present then you'll target the previous High (in case of a buy) or Low (in case of a sell) as your TP, utilize the previous low (in case of buy) or previous high (in case of sell) as SL and just let it run:
as you can see the 4 trades were all profitable, made little money but sure money in just 15 days
Unless I forget anything, this right here, is my strategy.
Simple, straight forward, high success rate and doesn't leave anything up to the case.
If you have any questions PLEASE leave a comment below and I'll do my best to reply in time ;)
Shopify (SHOP): Revolutionizing E-Commerce SolutionsShopify Inc. (SHOP) is a leading e-commerce platform that empowers businesses of all sizes to create and manage their online stores. From entrepreneurs starting out to large enterprises, Shopify provides tools for building websites, processing payments, and managing inventory. The company’s growth is fueled by the global shift toward online shopping and its innovative features like customizable themes, payment solutions, and marketing tools.
SHOP recently showed a confirmation bar with increasing volume, signaling strong momentum as the price moved into the momentum zone (price above .236). This indicates potential for continued upward movement. A trailing stop can be set at the Fibonacci 0.236 level using the Fibonacci snap tool to lock in gains while staying in the trade.
$SHOP Shopify Inc Fib GP test All-time High Fib GP test
All-time High Downtrend Test
Levels of interest as per chart.
SHOP Go Long! Will it break out this time?Recently SHOP has retraced and held the 50% Fib level and has been trading within a channel where it is about at the mid point of it. The King Trading Momentum Strategy yesterday issued a buy signal. This strategy combines the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum as measured by ADX plus evaluating recent volume changes. It has been forming a bull flag on the hourly and pre-market suggests this may be ready to break out. I followed the signal and bought a half position, looking to protect the trade at take-profit of 4%. During backtest this proved to be an optimum area and a stop-loss of 3% is warranted. SHOP and over 100 equities are built into this script. If trade protects at 4%, a trailing stop-loss of 2% will be adhered to in order to lock in as much profit as possible if this stock breaks out of the descending channel! I'm thinking its not too late for me to add to this position given typical morning volatility.
Build Your Position: Consider Going LONG on Shopify Next Week
- Key Insights: Shopify is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing positive
retail sentiment and an expected boost from the holiday shopping season.
Analysts suggest that the stock might be oversold, with a potential rebound
anticipated as user adoption and retention grow. Forthcoming earnings on
February 11 could provide further clarity on the company’s growth
trajectory, making it a strategic point for traders to evaluate long
positions.
- Price Targets:
- Next week targets:
- T1: $110
- T2: $115
- Stop levels:
- S1: $93.50
- S2: $90
- Recent Performance: Shopify has seen increased activity in its stock as the
retail sector benefits from consumer spending trends. Observers note a
steady rise in retail sales, signaling robust market dynamics favoring
e-commerce platforms like Shopify.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Shopify,
highlighting potential for growth ahead of the upcoming earnings report. The
general sentiment leans towards a favorable outlook, underpinned by positive
shifts in online shopping that support long-term value for the company.
- News Impact: The upcoming earnings release on February 11 is crucial for
Shopify. Investors are eager to see how the company aims to capitalize on
strong holiday spending amidst improving economic conditions, as any news
could influence stock performance significantly.
$SHOP - Waiting would be appropriateNYSE:SHOP This is a difficult one. One could say it is flagging. The cup and handle measured move is around $128.
With earnings release (ER) around the corner, it can go either way.
The ideal entry would be on a neckline check back around $88. 👀
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting anyone follow my trades. You do you.
Shopify Inc | SHOP & AIShopify stock has seen sideways momentum for the last few weeks despite posting good results in the recent quarter. One of the reasons is the bull run in early 2023 due to which the stock has seen over 60% jump in year-to-date. Shopify has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters and there are strong tailwinds that can help the company improve its topline. At the same time, Shopify has been able to improve the conversion of Gross Merchandise Value or GMV into revenue due to better services. Shopify’s GMV has increased 11x between the last quarter of 2016 and the last quarter of 2022. During this time, Shopify’s quarterly revenue base has increased from $130 million to $1.7 billion or 13x.
Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was $195 billion and rapid growth in this key metric should help the company improve monetization. The company has also undertaken some cost-cutting which is having a positive impact on the bottom line. Analysts have forecasted Shopify’s EPS at $1 for fiscal 2025 which means that the stock is trading 60 times the EPS estimate of 2025. However, better monetization and focus on cost optimization could help the company deliver good EPS growth in the next few quarters. The PS ratio is also at 12 which is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic years. Shopify stock can deliver good returns in the long term as the company adds new services and improves its GMV growth trajectory.
Shopify reported a GMV of $5.5 billion in December 2016 quarter. This has increased to $60 billion in the recent December 2022 quarter. Hence, Shopify’s GMV has increased to 11 times within the last seven years. On the other hand, Shopify’s revenue during the December quarter has increased by 13 times, from $130 million to $1.7 billion. This growth trend shows that the company is able to convert more GMV into actual revenue. One of the main reasons behind this trend is that Shopify is adding new services and it can charge customers a higher commission for these services.
Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was a staggering $195 billion. The company has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters. The YoY revenue growth hit a bottom of 15% in June 2022. Since then the YoY revenue growth has picked up again as the company faces easier comps. In the recent quarter, the company reported YoY revenue growth of over 30% which is quite high when we consider that the GMV base of Shopify is more than $200 billion.
The revenue growth will not build a bullish momentum for the stock unless the company can deliver sustainable profitability. During the pandemic years, Shopify’s revenue growth and high EPS helped the stock reach its peak. The company would need to focus on profitability in the next few quarters in order to rebuild a long-term bullish rally. Shopify has divested from its logistics business which should help improve the bottom line. We should also see better monetization of current services as the company tries to build new AI tools.
The EPS estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead have steadily improved in the last few quarters. According to current consensus, Shopify should be able to deliver EPS of $1 in fiscal year 2025. However, it is highly likely that Shopify will beat these estimates as the company launches new initiatives to improve monetization of its massive GMV base. Shopify’s trailing twelve months EPS during the peak of the pandemic went to $2.6. If the company can get close to this EPS rate by 2025, we should see a significant bullish run in the stock. The recent cost-cutting should also help the company improve the bottom line. We have seen a similar trend in all the Big Tech companies who have reported a rapid growth in EPS as their headcount was reduced.
While most analysts agree over the long-term revenue growth potential of Shopify, some of them are wary of the pricey valuation of the stock. Shopify is trading at 12 times its PS ratio. This is quite high when we compare with most of the other tech players and even Shopify’s peer like Wix (WIX), Etsy (ETSY), and others. However, it should be noted that Shopify’s PS ratio is significantly lower than the average PS multiple prior to the pandemic when the stock had an average PS ratio of over 20.
Shopify’s revenue estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead is close to $10 billion which is equal to annualized revenue growth of over 25%. If we look at this metric, Shopify stock is trading at 7 times the revenue estimate of fiscal year 2025. This looks reasonable if the company can also manage to improve its EPS trend over the next few years.
The long-term tailwind from ecommerce growth is still very strong. Shopify will benefit from an increase in GMV and a higher ecommerce market share in key markets. This should help the company gain pricing leverage over other competitors and also improve its monetization momentum
Shopify has reported a faster revenue growth rate compared to its GMV growth in the last few years. This shows that the company is able to charge higher rate for additional services. There has been an acceleration in revenue growth over the last few quarters. Shopify has also divested from logistics services which were pulling down the profitability of the company.
Shopify could deliver over 20% YoY revenue growth for the next few years as the company gains from strong tailwinds within the ecommerce business. If Shopify regains its earlier ttm EPS of $2 by 2025, we could see a strong bull run within the stock. While the stock is not cheap, it seems to be reasonably valued and longer-term investors could gain a better return from Shopify, making the stock a Buy at current price.
Will Santa deliver, or will the buck ram it down?CAPITALCOM:SHOP delivered a strong earnings report recently, key points being:
- Strong revenue growth of 26% YoY
- Improved free cash flow margin, up to 19% from 16%
- Operating income more than doubled YoY
On the flip side:
- High operational spending
- Increase in loan and transaction losses, indicating rising credit risk
- Macroeconomic risks
Heading into Christmas shopping, SHOP is well positioned. Spending this season is expected to rise 7% compared to 2023, and more people are buying early, leading to more consistent sales. Online shopping is expected to rise once again this year, benefiting SHOP.
Obstacles are higher prices, and the outlook of even higher prices to come. The economic plans of the president-elect will without a shed of doubt lead to rising inflation, and many will plan accordingly. However, I believe the upside is greater on the semi-short time, which will help push SHOP share price further. The gap following the earnings release was big, and we might see a pullback short term, so I would hold going long until that gap is resolved.
I don’t expect the gap to be filled, but a retrace must be expected. The most recent high above today’s price is from November 2021, so that is not relevant, so no target. There are no obvious support or resistance levels, as price has been pretty flat for ages. Watch for pullbacks, then do your own DD.
$shopgoing long NYSE:SHOP , good r/r and support area here, so i will try to go long, keep it simpel
Shopify: Strong Growth Ahead, Targets Set for Next WeekRecent Performance: Shopify has recently demonstrated a remarkable upswing,
with a nearly 25% increase following impressive third-quarter results. This
performance, marked by exceeding market expectations, signals optimistic
sentiment and highlights Shopify's pivotal role in the evolving e-commerce
landscape as consumer behaviors shift towards online shopping.
- Key Insights: Analysts emphasize the urgency for traditional retailers to
adopt online strategies due to declining foot traffic in shopping malls.
Shopify is positioned as a leader in facilitating this transition,
capitalizing on the growing demand for e-commerce solutions. The emphasis on
agility and innovation reflects the necessity for businesses to meet
changing consumer expectations.
- Expert Analysis: Market sentiment regarding Shopify is notably favorable,
driven by recognition of its capabilities to help businesses transition to
online sales amid a challenging retail environment. Experts suggest that as
retail dynamics continue to transform, Shopify's growth potential remains
robust, with a keen focus on adapting to external economic pressures such as
tariffs that may influence consumer behavior.
- Price Targets: Based on professional insights, the next week targets for
Shopify are set for:
- T1: 123.00
- T2: 130.00
- Stop levels are structured as follows:
- S1: 110.00
- S2: 105.00
This structure reinforces a potential bullish outlook, with significant support
below the current price and realistic upside targets within a 3%-10% range.
- News Impact: The current landscape for retail is shifting significantly, with
a decline in traditional mall shopping contributing to increased
opportunities for e-commerce platforms like Shopify. This trend is further
amplified by discussions about potential tariff impacts on retail and
consumer behavior, indicating that companies must adapt swiftly. Shopify's
strategic positioning in this market evolution offers a resilient avenue for
growth as it navigates these changing dynamics.
SHOP hitting cluster support soon? 🔭I could see a short term dip to SMA-trend support levels below.. nice cluster support there.
After that bulls should take control and take it to my targets at 90-118 🎯
last chart from me today, boost and follow for more ❤️🔥 see you soon hopefully
$SHOP - Not a good risk reward hereNYSE:SHOP Beautiful cup and handle base breakout. The train has already left the station. The risk-reward here is not good. I would not chase. Wait for the neckline retest.
$SHOP Consolidation post earnings could see a move soon?Shopify has been consolidating post-earnings, now it has formed a descending triangle.
Watching for a breakout above resistance to target $113.57–$116.25
Or a breakdown below 'demand zone' to target $109.02–$107.18 (gap fill).
$SHOP: OUTLOOK NYSE:SHOP : OUTLOOK
Watching for a 1-HOUR candle close ABOVE $112.59 to ENTER 📈
Targeting $113.90!
👉 LIKE & FOLLOW for more updates!
LIKE I SAID: SHOPIFY WAS THE NEXT RETAIL STOCK TO FLY📢 Before all the BIG accounts start swarming all over NYSE:SHOP like flies on 💩, remember this call in the chaos! 🤪
Catalyst: Big earnings beat prediction based on NASDAQ:AAPL and NASDAQ:AMZN results and a strong consumer outlook.
Trade Setup: Entry, Stop Loss, Price Targets.
Next Retail Stock: Prediction on the next big retail stock to fly.
#HIGHFIVESETUP: My proven trading strategy.
Valuation: Detailed analysis based on my valuation analyzer.
Let's continue to crush it together in this amazing community! I appreciate you all! ♥️
SHOP - Bulls ReadyPrice has bounced off the lower curve trend line and is looking for more
If the same curve is applied to the upside and used as a resistance line it puts the target at $400
Lets see if the bulls take it that far
Daily timeframe
Shopify (SHOP) at Pivotal Levels: Continuation or Support Retest
Shopify (SHOP) is currently trading near 107.13, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is crucial for the next price movement. On the bi-weekly chart, there is also a possibility of the price retesting the previous support at 90 if 107.13 is broken. The next move will depend on the strength of buyers versus sellers.
---
1. **Entry Points:**
- **Scenario 1 (Bullish Continuation):** Enter after a clear breakout and a bullish close above 107.13, confirming the uptrend.
- **Scenario 2 (Support Retest):** If 107.13 is broken, wait for a retest of the strong support level at 90, looking for positive reversal signals.
2. **Targets:**
- Target 1: 122.72 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement).
- Target 2: 176.29 (previous high).
3. **Stop Loss:**
- **Scenario 1 (Bullish Continuation):** Stop loss at 104.99 (2% below 107.13).
- **Scenario 2 (Support Retest):** Stop loss at 88.20 (2% below 90).
4. **Confirmation Factors:**
- Strong breakout above 107.13 with high volume or a bullish candle.
- Positive reversal signals (e.g., Pin Bar or Bullish Engulfing) at 90 if it is retested.
5. **Additional Notes:**
- 107.13 is a pivotal level; holding above it supports a bullish continuation.
- If this level is broken, 90 becomes a key support level to watch for buyer re-entry.
---
**Disclaimer:**
This is a trading idea based on technical analysis and not financial advice. Please manage your risk and monitor the market carefully before making any decisions.
Shopify ain't done yet! Pullback then Higher, 50% Move Inbound! Shopify ain't done yet! Pullback then Higher, 50% Move Inbound!
NYSE:SHOP is going higher and presenting a buying opportunity!
50% Potential Upside! 📈
In this video, we dive into NYSE:SHOP , an Ecommerce powerhouse, currently breaking out of a Multi-Year Cup n Handle Pattern!
💡 Key Highlights:
-H5 Indicator: Flashing green for a bullish signal
-Flipping a 4-year resistance area to support
-Volume Insights: Massive GAP to fill
-Technical Analysis: Consolidation box formed on WR%
Targets:
🎯$110
🎯$121
📏$160
🎯$180
Don't miss out on the potential explosive growth of Shopify! Tune in to see why this stock could be a game-changer!
NFA
Shopify (SHOP) Shares Retreat After Sharp SurgeShopify (SHOP) Shares Retreat After Sharp Surge
On 12 November, Shopify released its Q3 earnings report, which exceeded analysts' expectations:
- Earnings per share: actual = $0.36, forecast = $0.27;
- Gross revenue: actual = $2.23 billion, forecast = $2.15 billion.
The company also provided strong earnings guidance for Q4. According to Zacks analysts, Q4 earnings per share could reach $0.39.
As a result, SHOP shares surged by more than 20% following the report's release. But is it the right time to buy now?
A review of SHOP’s price chart suggests that purchasing the stock under current conditions might be premature:
- The price is above the upper boundary of the ascending channel (marked in blue), whereas it has typically remained within this channel since late 2022;
- The RSI indicator signals extreme overbought conditions.
Recent price action supports the idea that the market's initial reaction may have been overly emotional, leaving the stock vulnerable to a pullback. For the first time since the report, SHOP shares closed below $105 yesterday.
While strong fundamentals underpin Shopify's long-term appeal, in the short term, the stock price could decline towards:
- The psychological level of $100 per share;
- Former resistance at $90;
- The median of the ascending channel.
According to TipRanks:
- 11 out of 18 analysts recommend buying SHOP stock;
- The average price target for SHOP is $85 over the next 12 months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
