CCJ trade ideas
When this giant awakes, it would be phenomenalI picked this up while reading an article recently about commodities cycle turning bullish again.
Please do not ask me about the FA of this company as I do not dwell in it. From a chart perspective, this is what I see. The downside from the current price is it may falls to 1.50, all time low. It can also stay there for a long long time and never recover.
That is the risk , meaning you are holding on to a dead stock. Is this your kind of risk ? Do you have the patience to sit and hold?
Or can this be the kind of stock you wanna leave behind for your children in 5,10 years or more ?
I will monitor this and would be keen to participate on a small scale. Anyone with any insight or articles please share . Thanks
p/s : I see a descending wedge pattern which may break out from current price or heads further south before breaking out. Note this is a monthly chart so do not expect to see price actions movement so fast, you may go to lower time frame if you are keen to partake in this stock.
Confused bearish trendline breakoutI always try no to draw too many lines because I work with the more basic concepts of support and resistance, trend lines breakout and price patterns .
Now Here I have double bottom and a main bearish trend line breakout but the price now have acquired and erratic behavior and more recently the price did a deep pullback and here is the opportunity to entry after this dip (9.79)
Other important aspect here is the tails of the candlestick bars in the 7.80 level confirming the double bottom.
When I categorize something like a double bottom like in this chart I need a considerable lapse of time between the first floor to the second floor touched in the 7.80 level in this example the double bottom takes one year and one month to take shape.
The majority of my ideas have this component a bearish trend line breakout with a double bottom.
by the way I not publish the same chart idea twice I not repeat symbols look my published ideas
By last the horizontal resistance line in the area of 12.00 was a support broken in the 2008 in the financial crisis and then again was broken in June 2016
This idea need time and observation because the 12.00 resistance level has a lot of relevance in the recent history of this stock.
I use a price action analysis with multiple time frame. Without Indicators
Uranium - Light at the end of the tunnel?I don´t think there is a sector that is more hated than uranium. Everything looks very bleak. This is a true contrarian bet.
I`m using Cameco as a proxy for the uranium market.
As you can see in the chart, this might be the first time in the last 5 years that the uranium market is going to make a higher yearly low.
The entry provides a great R/R as one can set SL right below the recent lows or below 2016 lows.
If there was anyone left holding long it seems they capitulated on friday, when Cameco announced its third quarter loss.
I plan to hold this stock among other uranium companies multiple years, as long as the general markets don´t collapse or there is another Fukushima like event.
Company related worries:
- Tax dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency, billions of dollars at stake, decision is expected within the next 18 months
- Dispute with TEPCO, which recently terminated massive supply deal, the case is expected to be heard in 2019
- Cameco stopped selling into the spot market, most of its contract portfolio will expire in 2021, if spot prices don´t rise until then, Cameco would likely loose this Game of Chicken with power companies
The key to me is this: Before Fukushima utilities bought uranium 5-10 years in advance, now they are buying 2-3 years in advance. This is understandable given the uncertainty around the future of nuclear power and current oversupply. It left the market with little buyers and low volume transactions determining the price, but also hundred millions of pounds of uranium that aren't currently covered by supply contracts. (800 million pounds between now and 2026 according to Cameco) One can easily see what could happen if these power companies were forced to cover their contracts into rising prices.
-> In the end it will come down to whose projections of future global nuclear power capacity prove correct.
Outside of some black swan event that crushes the supply side, i think this market will come back to life as it died, through Japan.
Five reactors have restarted to date, a further 21 reactors are in the process of restart approval.
With Abe winning the election this seems only a matter of time.
My first "target" for the market would be to not make a lower low than in 2016. Ideally stay above recent lows.
In 2018-2020 I want to see uranium prices start to rise slowly.
Longterm I´m looking for a price of 60$ per pound.
CCJ - Long term Elliott Wave using Truncated 5thIf we accept that the Primary 5th wave was truncated by a black swan event, then we have a possibly correction that ended at Y. Shows potential to bottom out near $8.00.
5 to A
28.16
B to C
18.35
Nov 2016 Wave C has a length of at least 61.8% of wave A ( Oct 15.26% '11), gives 8.17 target. Actual 7.40
w1-3 = $53.96
w5 = $32.89
W5 often equals 62% of w1-3, which gives $33.45 projected move. Actual move = $33
If wave 3 indeed shows a nearly vertical rise or decline, then draw a trend line connecting wave 2 and 4 and draw a parallel line from wave 1.
This parallel line will cut through wave 3 and will target wave 5
Further supporting evidence - Truncated 5ths are usually associated with black swan events.
W to X is a bit weird?
