SHOP trade ideas
Jade Lizard Trade for 4/5 ExpirationNYSE:SHOP Jade Lizard Trade
+1 $83 call 4/5
-1 $82 call 4/5
-{current share price $76.24}-
-1 $70 put 4/5
~$230 credit.
OUTCOMES :
1) If, @ expiration, share price is > $83, then PROFIT = ~$130, (buy to close credit spread).
2) If, @ expiration, share price is between $70 - $82, then MAX PROFIT = ~$230.
3) If, @ expiration, share price is < $70, then assigned to buy 100 shares. Sell calls until assigned.
Shopify Analysis: Riding the Bullish WaveAlright, let's break down Shopify's stock journey in a way that's easy to understand. Imagine Shopify's stock as a surfer riding waves in the market ocean.
First off, we have the "wholesale zone" where Shopify typically trades during the week. Think of this as the calm waters where the surfer starts paddling, ranging from $42 to $52. It's like the surfer getting ready for the big wave.
Now, let's talk about support and resistance. These are like safety nets and hurdles for our surfer. Right now, Shopify has a solid support area between $71 and $78. This is like a sturdy surfboard helping our surfer stay afloat.
On the flip side, we have resistance, which is like big waves that our surfer needs to overcome. Currently, Shopify is facing some resistance between $159 and $175. But hey, every wave conquered means more thrill and potential for our surfer!
Basically Shopify is looking pretty optimistic for investors, especially if it stays above $53 and $80. It's like our surfer catching some awesome waves and riding high in the market ocean! Now.... ROCKKKK OOUUUTTTT
shop turbulence fixed ?? :)Analysts at Citi raised their price target on Shopify to $96, up from its previous level of $87
Shopify Price Target Raised to US$100 at CIBC
Barclays analyst Trevor Young maintains Shopify Equal-Weight and raises the price target from $53 to $70.
Wells Fargo Adjusts Price Target on Shopify to $90 From $70, Maintains Overweight Rating
Oppenheimer Raises Shopify's Price Target to $90 From $80, Maintains Outperform Rating
Deutsche Bank Raises Shopify's Price Target to $95 From $85, Maintains Buy Rating
This is for potential buy back:
Wells Fargo analyst Andrew Bauch reaffirmed his overweight rating on the e-commerce services stock while lifting the price target from $80 to $90 per share. In a note to clients, Bauch said that a robust holiday shopping season was already baked into Shopify's stock price. In order to go higher from here, he's looking for product updates and long-lasting profit margin improvements.
Management has been focusing on profitability, a strategy that has been paying off. In Q3, Shopify delivered its fourth consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow and has generated a profit in two of the past three quarters.
Shopify’s fourth-quarter 2023 results are expected to have benefited from investments in developing the best solutions for modern e-commerce. These are expected to have helped it expand its merchant base.
I expect shop to test the sell off at these levels.
target 120-138 after earnings 2-3 months into next quarter.
SHOP solid growth and strength into earningsOn the 4H chart SHOP has been trending up since last fall when it fell through the high volume
area and then rebounded crossing through it and rebounding. Earnings have been solid beats
for over a year. Volume is persistent and steady while the relative strength rising from a bounce
down to the 50 level to begin this month. This is a solid earnings play but also could be
a long term investment but not until there is another dip or minor correction to set up for
a low risk entry. Last earnings gave SHOP about $10-12 in a quick price pop. I am looking
for something in the range of $6-8 higher as a conservative target
Shopify Stock Is Soaring Again What Could Be The FactorThe bull market is back, and so is pandemic favorite Shopify (NYSE: SHOP). After posting robust growth and showing strong operating leverage in the third quarter, the e-commerce platform gained more than 30% in the last five trading days and is closing in on a market cap of $80 billion. Shopify is still down by 63% from the all-time high it set in 2021, which could indicate there is still more room to run here.
Shopify's Q3 earnings were strong across the board. As the software backbone for many online sellers, Shopify grows along with the overall e-commerce sector. It makes money through its core software subscriptions, by processing payments, and by selling add-on services to its merchant customers.
In the quarter, Shopify's revenue grew 25% year over year to $1.7 billion. Factor out last year's revenue from its logistics and delivery services business -- which the company divested itself of earlier this year -- and the growth rate was an even more impressive 30%.
Shopify sold the delivery services business to Flexport in a pivot to refocus solely on the digital world, providing software services to online merchants. This is already showing up in the company's profit margins. In the quarter, Shopify's gross margin was 52.6% compared to 48.5% in 2022.
Gains
Shopify generated $122 million in operating income in Q3, up from an operating loss of $346 million in the prior-year period.
Technical Analysist
Price Momentum
SHOP is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Shopify Q4 revenue tops Street estimatesShopify ( NYSE:SHOP ), the Canadian e-commerce giant, recently reported its fourth-quarter earnings, causing a stir in the market. While the company surpassed expectations in terms of earnings and revenue, its guidance for the upcoming quarter fell short, triggering a significant dip in its stock price. Let's delve deeper into what these results mean for investors and Shopify's future trajectory.
Strong Q4 Performance:
Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) fourth-quarter results showcased impressive performance, with earnings per share reaching 34 cents adjusted, surpassing analysts' expectations by 3 cents. Revenue also exceeded forecasts, totaling $2.14 billion, fueled by a remarkable increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) to $75.1 billion, a 23% rise from the previous year. This robust performance was primarily attributed to the surge in products sold on its platform, highlighting Shopify's continued relevance and dominance in the e-commerce landscape.
Guidance Woes:
Despite the stellar fourth-quarter results, investors were disheartened by Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) conservative guidance for the first quarter. The company's projection of a "low-twenties percentage rate" revenue growth, coupled with a free cash flow margin expected to be in the high single digits, fell short of market expectations. Notably, Shopify's forecasted adjusted operating income of $178 million starkly contrasts with consensus estimates of $382 million, painting a picture of cautious optimism amidst market uncertainties.
Market Response:
The market response to Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) guidance was swift and unforgiving. The company's shares tumbled approximately 10% in early trading following the earnings release, reflecting investor concerns over the gap between projected and anticipated performance metrics. Analysts from Wedbush emphasized Shopify's subdued outlook, highlighting the disparity between projected operating income and consensus estimates. This sentiment was echoed by the broader market, with many investors adopting a wait-and-see approach amidst lingering uncertainty.
Future Prospects:
Despite the short-term market turbulence, Shopify ( NYSE:SHOP ) remains well-positioned to capitalize on the burgeoning e-commerce landscape. The company's relentless focus on innovation and expanding its product offerings underscores its long-term growth potential. Additionally, Shopify's strategic divestiture of its logistics business signifies a commitment to streamlining operations and maximizing shareholder value. As the global economy continues to recover from the impacts of the pandemic, Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) resilient business model and unwavering commitment to customer-centricity are poised to drive sustainable growth in the years to come.
Conclusion:
Shopify's fourth-quarter earnings report elicited mixed reactions from investors, with strong performance overshadowed by conservative guidance for the upcoming quarter. While short-term market fluctuations may unsettle some stakeholders, Shopify's robust fundamentals and strategic initiatives signal a promising future ahead. As the e-commerce landscape evolves, Shopify ( NYSE:SHOP ) remains a stalwart player, poised to capitalize on emerging opportunities and deliver long-term value to shareholders.
Shopify going higherShopify is driven by optimism this week and we are seeing price push higher and higher within the 20SMA area. There is also optimism in the US indices so to me all lights look green.... My target is at 95.00
Navigating the Melody of Shopify: A Symphony of Bullish ProspectAs e-commerce continues to shape the retail landscape, Shopify (NYSE: NYSE:SHOP ) emerges as a key player, catching the attention of investors with a crescendo of positive indicators and cautious notes. Let's delve into the harmonious symphony that surrounds Shopify's recent performance.
1. A Harmonious Prelude: Bullish Analyst Report
The stage is set with Wells Fargo analyst Andrew Bauch reaffirming an overweight rating on Shopify, echoing confidence in the company's growth potential. Bauch's upward revision of the price target from $80 to $90 per share suggests a bullish outlook, inviting investors to join the melody of optimism.
2. Crescendo of Holiday Cheer: Stellar Performance in Shopping Season
The sound of success resonates as Shopify's stock experiences a 67% surge in the last three months, fueled by a robust holiday shopping season. The company's impressive $9.3 billion in Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales strikes a chord, providing a strong prelude to what investors hope will be a resounding fourth-quarter report.
3. Anticipation Builds: Overture to the Earnings Report
The anticipation crescendos as investors eagerly await Shopify's fourth-quarter report scheduled for February 13. The positive momentum from the holiday season sets the stage for potential revelations about the company's financial health and growth trajectory. The earnings report promises to be a defining movement in the Shopify symphony.
4. Technical Dynamics: A Rising Trend Channel
The technical score unveils a rising trend channel in the medium to long term, a melody of positive investor sentiment and confidence. However, the cautionary notes underscore the importance of monitoring the support level at $79.52, introducing a nuanced counterpoint to the upbeat tune.
Conclusion:
As the symphony of Shopify plays on, investors find themselves at a crossroads, balancing the uplifting melodies of positive indicators with the sobering cautionary notes. The upcoming earnings report is poised to be a pivotal movement, shaping the narrative of Shopify's journey. In this complex composition, finding harmony involves staying attuned to both the highs and lows, navigating the melody with a discerning ear, and appreciating the nuanced dynamics that contribute to the overall performance of this e-commerce virtuoso.
Shopify Short Position - ideaThis is my idea on shorting Shopify.
By looking back at Shopify chart, every Gap present in the chart created by slippage etc.. has always been closed.
The "pattern" follows that one that i use for Forex as well, it first targeted a gap created on the 16th Feb 2022, closed it, and is now aiming for the nearest one (which is the only still open).
The idea behind the trade is shorting 2 days before the Revenues report happen, I've seen that price cyclically drop and raises on revenue reports regardless of the positive or negative surprise, this might be influenced by Revenues + Buy backs of the company itself.
The next Revenue report will happen on the 14th of February 2024.
Shopify Key Area - 200 SMA ResistanceI don't want it to be true sooo hoping I'm wrong here... Shopify looks to be entering a short term bearish area.
Still long Shopify overall, think there's nowhere but up for them in the longer term. They've introduced new features for storeowners allowing for capital lending and more so acting like a bank as well as overall improvements to store owners and continued good support. I still believe they are the front runner out of any other shop ecommerce site.
Shop price is currently right below the 200 SMA. Needs to break this level soon, price has already gone through the 50 and 100 sma so we could see a continuation.
chaikin oscillator has divergence from price movement, didn't make a newer high
stochastic oscillator showing overbought
DMI shows weak trend strength, but +DI of 29 is still bullish
ADL diverted from price movement
PVT volume was in line with price movement
CCI, OBV, ROC, and CMF all divergent from recent price movement as well make me think a possible weakening trend strength in the short term.
SHOP (Shopify)SHOP have breaking out of weekly descending channel, an impulse is expected before a retest.
Happy trading and manage your risks.
How far can the SHOP Rocket FLY?follow trends because once they start to break on the downside, those gaps will start to close quickly.
Price targets are marked
Longer term chart, but something says it won't be long before we see some movement.
good luck
-n
$SHOP: Nice break of 80Shopify seems poised for more upside following this break of 80. We'll be watching to see if we get more follow through
SHOP at the 200 SMA on weekly - resistanceI love SHOP.
It's really fun to trade. Right now at the 200 weekly SMA and let's see if we get over.
Bullish on $SHOPNYSE:SHOP Shopify Inc. ( NYSE:SHOP ) is currently experiencing a bullish momentum in the market, with its recent breakthrough of the $68 resistance level.
This surge in price action has captured the attention of investors and analysts, as the stock is now targeting the next major price point at $89 (Will be taking partial profit at this level) and ultimately aiming for $150 price point.
The upward trend in Shopify's stock performance can be attributed to several factors, including the company's strong market presence and innovative approach to e-commerce solutions. As the digital landscape continues to evolve, Shopify has consistently demonstrated its ability to adapt and capitalize on emerging trends, making it an attractive option for investors seeking growth opportunities.
The recent financial results have showcased Shopify's robust revenue growth and strong market positioning. These factors have contributed to the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock, as investors anticipate further growth and potential price appreciation in the near future.
SHOP long term profit ?SHOP long term profit ? Cup & Handle pattern + Above the average line 150.
Only an idea and not a recommendation for trading!
SHOPIFY More downside to come. Where to buy?Shopify (SHOP) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 market bottom. It recently made a Higher High but not at the top of the pattern and started to pull-back, losing most of its strength and momentum as the 1D RSI dropped to 45.50 (neutral). The price is still above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which keeps it bullish but in our opinion it won't be for long as it has started to resemble the pull-back after the December 02 2022 High.
That was on the Channel Up first bullish leg and it eventually pulled-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, before the price rebounded again and almost reached the -0.382 Fib extension for a technical Higher High. Observe how similar the 1D RSI sequences are between the two.
As a result, we expect currently a downside as low as 60.50 (Fib 0.5) at least to test the 1D MA200 and then we will buy and target $94.00 (below the -0.382 Fib, projected +56% rise, which is 20% lower than the previous rise (+76.18%), similar to the difference the Feb 03 2023 High High had from its Dec 02 2022 High).
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SHOP - pull back to gap fill zoneSHOP is little over extended, Expecting a pull back to the gap zone .
BUY ShopifyShopify is approaching strong support levels expecting a bounce of 50-100% from those levels. I will personally buy some calls when it hits that particular area.
Position yourself accordingly, If have questions just message me.
Shopify Merchants Drive Record-High $9.3 Billion in Black FridayShopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP), a provider of essential internet infrastructure for commerce, announced today that Shopify merchants reached a record $9.3 billion in sales* over Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend - a 24% increase from last year.
From early Friday in New Zealand to late Monday in California, more than 61 million consumers globally purchased from brands powered by Shopify.
Shopping peaked when collective sales reached $4.2 million per minute at 12:01 p.m. EST on Black Friday.
BFCM highlights from Shopify merchants
1. Peak sales per minute: $4.2 million at 12:01 PM EST on Nov. 24.
2. 61 million consumers globally purchased from Shopify-powered brands.
3. Hottest product categories: apparel and accessories, health and beauty, and home and garden.
4. Average cart price: $108.12 ($107.53 on a constant currency basis).
5. Top selling countries: U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada, and Germany.
6. Top selling cities: Los Angeles, New York, and London.
7. Cross-border orders represented 15% of all global orders.
8. 56,000+ tonnes of carbon removal funded by Shopify to counteract shipping emissions.
Technical Analysist
Price Momentum
SHOP is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Shopify Record Breaking $4.1 billion Black Friday SalesShopify - NYSE:SHOP
Shopify is having a great year and it appears it just got better, they announced a record-breaking Black Friday, with global sales from its merchants totaling $4.1 billion. Surpassing the previous year's figures, sales saw a substantial 22% increase, peaking at an impressive $4.2 million per minute on November 24, 2023.
After 5 positive quarterly earnings in a row and with the annual earnings release in Feb 2024 around the corner, now could be a time to capitalize on this upcoming likely positive Annual Earnings Report release in Feb 2024 (released between 14th – 21st Feb).
The Chart
There is a clear long term diagonal support level under price and potential break out above key resistance level of $70.00.
We are above the 200 day smooth moving average and it is sloping upwards.
Entry into the trade should to your desired risk tolerance. Some examples of how you could enter
- Entry here allowing for potential loss of 15% (the stop)
- Entry at the $70.00 resistance line level (keeping stop at $62.00)
- Entry off a the 200 day SMA when ever that occurs and place a stop under the diagonal
resistance line (which will like be a similar 15% potential loss).
The Risk: Reward is decent at 6, however I would take a significant portion off the table at $91.00 (the 0.618 fib level) or I would at lease raise my stop at this juncture, as it will likely be some form of resistance simply because of the price support/resistance you will see to the left historically and also because it lines up nicely with the 0.618 fib extension.
You could also exit the trade entirely at $91.00 and plan a re-entry when we see what happens next. Its only a 22% play here versus a 15% loss, not great. So you need to weigh up what your comfortable with.
There is also an argument to hold the position until the annual earnings release in Feb 2024, in this case the position size is key and should be smaller, with capital set aside to average in if we re-visit the 200 or diagonal resistance.
There is a trade here and a structure to play off, its up to you how you do it. Carefully select your position size if your making a longer term play, regardless position size should be small with a potential 15% loss.
Another alternative is to cut the stop loss to 5%, however I would only do this after a significant pull back of some sort.
An interesting year for Shopify, it appears the US consumer is stronger than market commentators might think.
As always stay nimble
PUKA
SHOP - Party Time?Cup and Handle in Motion for NYSE:SHOP
Watch out for the neckline at $71.43.
If a breakout is, then a CnH target is at around $119.
in the smaller picture, we can see a recent breakout from a minor downtrend channel with a target of $84.31 (closing the daily gap that occurred in February 2022).
The best entry position is at $62.41 to close the small gap after earning jump.
Let's go SHOPping!
Shop to flag through .886Shop has been on an absolute tear and is looking to be creating a small flag on the 4 hour that has an upside past the .886 fib. Do remember we are 1/3 of the way to all-time-highs and have a long way to go to even 1/2 of that. Was shop overvalued at 175$, sure, but what about todays prices? The market is very irrational this year stay safe.
