Are we out of the woods yet ? From the day chart, it is 50/50 chance as we are in a crucial position.
While we are officially no longer in a bear market, the price action are still weak and has yet to break above the resistance of 19,213 on 9th April which was the day Trump announced a 90 days cooling period.
If the price action over the next week/month continues nicely in the upward channel, then the probability of breaking above 19,213 resistance is more secured.
The challenge remains nobody knows for sure what trump cards does Trump holds and he is well aware his words alone can moves the market. He said he is unhappy with Powell and that causes market jittery, another fall day and the next day, he said he has no intention of firing him.
And we have Bessent saying the de-escalation with China is coming to a close (really?) and that drives the market higher.
I bet it is very tough to be in Trump's team , facing so much pressure and stress and saying things out of proportions on a daily basis. Credibility is definitely at stake, just like a shattered mirror, the cracks will forever be there.
IF you feel extremely uncomfortable and you have positions in the US markets, perhaps trimming some of your holdings might help you to sleep better. Avoid taking on unnecessary risks by betting on short term market moves. The hardest part of trading is psychology and if you got lucky once or twice winning your bets, are you going to stop and not continue ? Or will you bet bigger? 90% of the traders will do the latter thinking they got things under control and that is when the market takes an abrupt turn and kill you without batting an eyelid.
Stay safe, stay wise, always have stop loss if you want to trade, never borrow money no matter how reliable you think your tips/indicators are telling you.
