Nasdaq analysis: 25-MAR-2025Good morning, trading community! Today's Nasdaq analysis is for you. Share your thoughts, ask questions, and let me help you grow.
US100 trade ideas
Relief Rally to ATHs or Relief in a Bear Market ?
Welcome Traders,
Due to ongoing economic events the US stock market underwent a correction for the past 4 weeks. From peak to trough, the NASDAQ made a 14.4% correction and has now found a level of support at 19,125.3. Since then, price has made a series of HHs and HLs showing signs of a relief rally or a "bounce" from support.
However, the question remains...is this a relief rally to ATHs or a relief in a bear market? Meaning, can we anticipate that price will continue bullish to ATHs or is this a short term bullish move to signal LHs on the larger TF before continuing the downtrend to new LLs. If price were to break the previous Lows at 19,125.3 then we may be heading into a bear market and possibly a recession. Note a bear market is defined as a 20.0% ore more correction from ATHs. Since price has only made a 14.4% correction we have not entered into a bear market YET.
Given the current economic conditions and geopolitical tensions, none of us knows whether price will rally to ATHs or continue to make new lows. A great deal of uncertainty persists within the market primarily due to the uncertainty around tarrifs and its effect on companies and consumers. US president Donald Trump has proven to evoke tremendous volatility within the markets, with disregard on how he may be impacting the markets. The market conditions are changing compared to Biden's administration and so its important to adapt and keep abreast with the fundamental outlook prevailing.
As news continues headline I will be paying key attention to price action at 20,320.0 - 20,552.1 as a previous level of resistance on the daily/weekly chart.
1. As long as price respects and remains below this level then it is considered bearish to either restest or break below the previous lows signalling a new daily (HL or LL).
2. However if price is showing strong bullish candle stick pattern with a close above 20,552.1 then the uptrend to new HHs is likely to be created.
Note that the Weekly HL is respecting the 61.8% fib level of retracement which justifies the currently relief rally or bounce from support. Furthermore, this retracement level aligns with a weekly trend-line price has previously respected.
Although NAS100 is primarily a bullish instrument I would advise to be a cautious buyer in thinking that this is the rally to ATHs. Even if price may not break 19,125.3 there is a high chance of consolidation, manipulation and a lack of clear direction in the market.
Weekly Analyses 03/24-03/28Welcome Traders to another week of trading!
Due to ongoing economic events the US stock market underwent a correction for the past 4 weeks. From peak to trough, the NASDAQ made a 14.4% correction and has now found a level of support at 19,125.3. Since then, price has made a series of HHs and HLs ultimately signalling a LH on the Daily chart. Using my fibs the Daily LH is currently within the 38.2% fib level. Price has also finally managed to fill the gap created at market open on March-9.
So what happens next?
Price may have room to continue bullish in an attempt to capture the buy side liquidity and FVG created during the downtrend. If this is the case, I anticipate price to continue bullish to 20,320.0 - 20,552.1. If price respects this level, it will serve as a retest of the 200 day MA that price broke below, as well as a restest of the neckline of the "M" pattern created on the Daily.
Price also has room to retrace as the 1H, 6H and 7H TFs have signalled a HIGH not HH. A retracement is required to signal their respective HLs to continue the uptrend. Furthermore, a gap created at market open on March-21 needs to be filled. So regardless of how high price may continue bullish we can expect a retracement back to 19,785.9 with a daily candle close below the gap. Depending on the moment this may signal a new Daily HL or LL.
Trading isn't Rocket Science!!! - BUY NAS100 All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
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POWER OF MAJOR INDICES...TAKE EMOTIONS OUTHello hello TradingView community! JosePips here just wanted to create a video for you guys on the power of the major indices and how we can use them as a compass and gauge for our trading overall and use it as a compass to tell us the direction of the market and be able to help us digest which opportunities are in the markets for us!
They are a very powerful tool to use as confluence whether you are trading stocks, currencies, futures etc. so be able to use to gauge where the market is at and help us decide which market opportunities are best for us to take and where the probability is highest for us to trade. Which as traders...probability is the name of the game!
Hope you guys get some nuggets from this and as always have a blessed rest of your week!
Cheers!
NAS100 - Potential TargetsHow I see it in the shorter term:
KEY LEVEL OF CONFLUENCE, NOW SUPPORT @ 19960.00
Potential "LONG" -
TP 1 = 20490.00
TP 2 = 20834.00
Potential "SHORT" - To Fill Imbalance
(Requires a break and hold below KEY SUPPORT)
TP 1 = 19975.00
Keynote:
Stocks had a GAP weekly open, which indicates potential bullish momentum.
At some point the GAP needs to be filled.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis
NASDAQ 100 INDEX BREAKDOWN FROM A 100% TECHNICAL VIEWPOINTHello everybody JosePips here hope you are all having an amazing week so far! I wanted to come on here and make a post for the Nasdaq 100 index from a 100% technical analysis perspective. There has been SO MUCH talk around the stock market and the indices lately (frankly mostly emotional) & I wanted to come on here and share my outlook and the technical outlook for you guys so you can actually gain some insight not from an emotional perspective but from a technical/subjective viewpoint.
Hope you guys enjoy this video and find some value in it and can use it in your trading & investing. Please boost this post and comment if you enjoy and see you in the next one!
Cheers!
NAS100...Ever The Bullish Instrument (The Return)After my 1 month ban from tradingview I am resuming my commentary on my eternal bullish stance for the NAS100.
Despite my absence, my strategy has not changed and will remain so until the Monthly starts creating LH's to LL's.
With that being said here is my current outlook on the NAS100:
1. Weekly currently at HL
2. H7 currently completed a daily new high at the end of today's session
3. H1 currently completed a daily new high at the end of today's session.
What does this mean for me?
Well, since I am taking my HL's and exiting on my HH's (trend move), I am aware that today's move only produced a daily LH and as such signals continued consolidation on the lower to mid hour timeframes...This allowed me to TP at the end of today's session and now I have to wait for the retracement to be over and the new lows completed so that I can enter on the next round of HL's on my larger timeframes.
As I have always mentioned, to understand this requires constant practice, consistency and patience...so give yourself time and do not rush.
Any sells in the market are only temporary retracements to produce the HL on the larger timeframes...Case in point... 4 weeks worth of selling on the H1 only managed to create a HL on the weekly timeframe...leaving the market still in trend for the HLs to another ATH in the future.
Have a great week.
#oneauberstrategy
#auberstrategy
#whywewait
#zigzagtheory
#patience
#aubersystem
Order Block @20140 |Sell SignalPrice was in an overall downtrend but has now retraced to mitigate an order block that created a break of structure. So now I'm waiting for a confirmation for short entries.
Confirmation can be anything from change of character on the order block to candlesticks confirmation depending on what I see first.
NAS100NAS100, also known as the Nasdaq-100 Index, is a stock market index that includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. It is heavily weighted toward technology stocks, making it a popular choice for traders and investors who focus on the tech sector.
Key Features of NAS100:
• Composition: Includes major companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla.
• Volatility: Tends to be more volatile than other indices, offering high-risk, high-reward opportunities.
• Tech Dominance: Heavily influenced by the technology sector, making it sensitive to innovation trends and economic conditions.
• Trading Hours: The Nasdaq market operates from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM (ET), but NAS100 futures trade nearly 24/7.
Why Traders Like NAS100?
• Strong Growth Potential: Tech companies often outperform the broader market.
• Liquidity: High trading volume ensures tight spreads and smooth execution.
• Good for Day Trading & Swing Trading: Due to frequent price movements.
Nasdaq - The Most Decisive Point Ever!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) might break below all structure:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After breaking above the major channel resistance trendline just a couple of months ago, the Nasdaq is now being dominated by bears and starting to break everything back to the downside. So far we didn't see any confirmation but the next couple of days will decide just everything.
Levels to watch: $20.000, $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NAS100 I Potential Gap Fill and More Growth to 21,000Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** NAS100 Analysis - Listen to video!
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
NAS 100 LONG 2000 POINT MOVE TO BE CAUGHT LIVE TRADE Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis
The Nasdaq 100 has broken above the 20,000 level, an area that, of course, has a lot of psychology attached to it in the pre-market trading on Monday, and as a result, I’m watching this index very closely because one of my main criteria for getting interested in buying the NASDAQ has been whether or not we can close above this level. If we can, then it’s very possible that we will continue to go higher. After all, it would make a certain amount of sense to see a bear market rally, especially after the extreme negativity of this market. But as things stand right now, I would anticipate that volatility continues.
NASDAQ The recovery has officially started.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up and with today's opening, it broke above the Lower Highs trend-line of February's Bearish Leg. Even though the confirmed bullish reversal signal technically comes above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we already have the early bottom signals.
First and foremost, the 1D RSI rebounding from the same oversold (<30.00) level where all major Higher Lows of the Channel Up did (August 05 2024, April 19 2024, October 26 2023). Every time the price reached its -0.5 Fibonacci extensions following such bottoms. Also each Bullish Leg tends so far to be smaller than the previous.
As a result, targeting a +24% rise (-3% less than the previous Bullish Leg) at 23500 is a very realistic Target technically, as it is considerably below the -0.5 Fibonacci extension.
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USTEC (NASDAQ 100) Analysis – 30M Timeframe
1️⃣ Market Structure & Current Position
Current Price: 19,758
Recent Swing Low: 19,200 (March 14)
Recent Swing High: 19,900 (March 20)
Key Observations:
The market is ranging between 19,200 – 19,900.
Breakout above 19,900 could trigger a strong rally due to thin liquidity above.
If rejected, price could retest 19,600 or 19,200 before resuming upside.
2️⃣ Key Technical Levels (Support & Resistance)
Support Zones (Demand Areas)
19,600 – 19,650 → High volume node, key retest level.
19,200 – 19,250 → Major liquidity zone, potential bounce area.
Resistance Zones (Supply Areas)
19,900 – 19,950 → Immediate resistance, key breakout level.
20,400 – 20,450 → Fibonacci 1.618 extension.
20,850 – 20,900 → Fibonacci 2.618 extension, potential exhaustion zone.
📌 Gann Confluence Levels:
19,800 – 19,850 → 1/8th division of the last major range.
20,250 – 20,300 → 2/8th division, possible reaction point.
3️⃣ Probable Scenarios & Probability (%)
📈 Bullish Scenario (70% Probability)
Break & Retest of 19,900 → Target 20,400 – 20,850.
Confirmation: Volume spike above 19,950 & bullish close on H4.
Wave 3 of Elliott Cycle could push price to 20,900 if momentum is strong.
📉 Bearish Scenario (30% Probability)
Rejection at 19,900 → Drop to 19,600, possibly 19,200.
Confirmation: Bearish engulfing candle below 19,750 & increase in sell-side liquidity.
If 19,200 breaks, expect deeper pullback to 18,900 – 18,800.
4️⃣ Conclusion & Trading Strategy
🎯 Bias: Bullish above 19,900, cautious if rejected.
✅ Long Entries:
Break & Retest of 19,900 → TP1: 20,400, TP2: 20,850, TP3: 21,300
Aggressive Buy: Bounce from 19,600 with strong bullish rejection.
❌ Short Entries:
Rejection from 19,900 → Target 19,600 & 19,200.
Aggressive Short: If price fails to break 19,750 with increasing sell volume.
🎯 Stop Loss Levels:
For Longs: Below 19,500.
For Shorts: Above 20,600.
🚀 Final Thoughts
If USTEC clears 19,900 with volume, we could see an explosive move to 20,400 – 20,850.
If rejected, price may revisit 19,600 – 19,200 before another breakout attempt.
NQ: Weekly/Daily AnalysisGood Week and Day!
Finally, buyers showed up late Friday and market opened with a gap up. Both Asian and European sessions continued the move up. We should expect NY session to continue up.
Few notes here:
1- As I mentioned it few times now, this is not "buy the dip", this is just to allow large hands to clear their positions. The chart identifies the VA area to sell.
2- The ST/MT/LT outlooks for all US Equities is Sell. Unless, major change happens to US policy (i.e., tariffs, bullying) which it has 0.0001% chance! The self-inflicted destruction is so amazing! Three months ago, US economy was almost the only solid economy worldwide!
3- April 2nd: tariffs come into effect.
3- Money is fleeing US market towards BRICS and European Markets.
So, for this week, price will continue up until 20500-20700 area.
We have key economic data to fuel the move up. But it won't change anything fundamentally. The damage is structural. So good news is good news for Equities, but bad news it will be neutral.
Nasdaq daily time frame , Re-tesing the resistance NASDAQ (US Tech 100) 4H Analysis – Bullish Recovery in Progress
Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
The chart shows a strong downtrend, with price breaking below a rising channel earlier this month.
However, a bullish breakout from the falling wedge is now in play, indicating a potential trend reversal or retracement.
The price is approaching the 20,250 - 20,532 resistance zone, marked by previous support-turned-resistance.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate resistance: 20,250 – 20,532 (previous support now acting as resistance).
Support zone: 19,921 – 19,500, where recent demand was seen.
Volume & RSI Analysis:
Volume is rising, confirming buying interest.
RSI at 64.48, showing bullish momentum but nearing overbought conditions.
Trade Considerations:
📈 Bullish Bias: If price breaks above 20,532, it could push towards 20,750+.
📉 Bearish Scenario: A rejection from resistance may lead to a pullback toward 19,921 support.
⚠️ Wait for confirmation: Either a breakout above 20,532 or a pullback for a better entry.
