NASDAQ Bullish Breakout Above Channel;📈 Technical Analysis Overview
1. Breakout from Downtrend Channel
The price has clearly broken out of a descending channel, confirmed by a clean breakout above the upper trendline.
This is a bullish signal, indicating the end of the prior downtrend and the start of a possible uptrend or reversal.
2. Moving Averages (EMA 50 & EMA 200)
EMA 50 (Red): 18,965
EMA 200 (Blue): 19,409
Price is currently trading above both EMAs, which is another strong bullish indicator.
A bullish crossover (where EMA 50 crosses above EMA 200) is likely imminent if upward momentum continues—this would form a Golden Cross, further confirming bullish sentiment.
3. Structure and Market Behavior
After the breakout, price retested the breakout zone and showed a bounce, forming a higher low, which is characteristic of a bullish structure.
The chart includes projected price action with higher highs and higher lows—suggesting a bullish continuation pattern.
4. Volume & Momentum (Not shown but implied)
Breakouts are typically validated by volume. Although volume is not shown, the sharp upward movement and breakout above resistance suggest strong buying pressure.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 20,000 psychological level; above that, 20,500–21,000 may act as resistance.
Support: 19,400 (near EMA 200), and 18,965 (EMA 50); a break below may invalidate the bullish setup.
📊 Conclusion
The chart shows a clear breakout from a descending channel, supported by the price moving above both key EMAs. The structure favors bullish continuation, especially if price holds above the 19,400–19,500 support zone. Upside targets lie around 20,500 to 21,000.
US100 trade ideas
Possible reversal of this bullish wave...(LOG)Orange circles highlight repeated price rejection and the formed doji that suggests a slowdown in a bullish wave and potential reversal. The confluence of the descending trendline and horizontal supply/resistance zone creates a high-probability reversal or breakout from this triangle.
If the price rejects again from the current supply zone and triangle, short setup toward the Fibonacci retracements or demand zones (18300 and below).
If the price breaks above the descending trendline, bullish continuation will likely target 20,000+ (Swing H).
Trend remains down.
Entry 19300
TP 18300 below
Target 14k.
NASDAQ Recovery Looks Fragile Below 20,500After the steep drop to 16,300, NAS100 started to recover, forming a higher low and managing to break back above the falling trendline drawn from the all-time high (ATH).
While these are positive developments, in my opinion, the trend is likely to reverse to the downside soon.
Technically, the index is now entering a heavy resistance zone, marked by:
• The golden sell zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement,
• Psychological resistance at 20,000,
• Major horizontal resistance around 20,500.
As long as the price remains below 20,500, I favor short trades, targeting a potential drop to at least 18,000
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Descending Triangle Formation with Bullish Breakout Potential The NASDAQ (US100) is currently forming a descending triangle pattern with a clear A-B-C-D-E wave structure, signaling price compression and consolidation.
🔍 Key Insights:
The previous move was strongly bullish, increasing the probability of a continuation after consolidation.
A potential breakout above the descending trendline (blue resistance) could trigger a sharp upward move.
Target zones:
✅ First target: 20,060.6
✅ Second target: 20,573.9
Key support zone: 19,524.7 – this area acted as a launchpad for the previous bullish impulse and confirms the base of the triangle.
🧠 Suggested Strategy:
Wait for a confirmed breakout with volume. Look for entries on a pullback toward the 19,811.1 zone – ideally with a bullish continuation candle.
📊 Additional Context:
These types of consolidation patterns often lead to explosive moves. Patience and risk management will be crucial here.
NASDAQ: Rejected on the 1D MA50. Can it break it?Nasdaq is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.608, MACD = -100.810, ADX = 23.609) as it got rejected today on the 1D MA50. That is the first serious Resistance test of the April 7th rebound and until it breaks, we can see a technical pullback to the 4H MA100 in order to establish the new Support. With the 1D RSI confirmed the new long term bottom with a DB, buying the dips on every such pullback is the most effective strategy on such occasions. Our short term target is the R1 level (TP = 20,300).
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NASDAQ testing its 1D MA50. Break-out or Fake-out?Nasdaq (NDX) has reached its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 24. Following the (near) rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), this looks like a textbook recovery from a correction to a new long-term Bullish Leg.
Chronologically the last such correction was the March 2020 COVID flash crash, which after it almost touched the 1W MA200, it recovered as fast as the current rebound and when it broke above its 1D MA50, it turned it into the Support of the new long-term Bullish Leg.
What wasn't a break-out but a fake-out was the rebound after the June 13 2022 (near) 1W MA200 rebound, when the break above the 1D MA50 was false as it produced a new rejection and sell-off later on. The difference is that 2022 was a technical Bear Cycle both in terms of length and strength.
Whatever the case, Nasdaq has seen the lowest 1W RSI (oversold) reading among those 3 bottoms. So do you think today's 1D MA50 test is a break-out or fake-out?
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Nasdaq: Where should I buy from next? New bullish orderblockWe are hunting the next buyzone already. The correction zone is printing now.
This is how you accurately forecast your next entry ahead of time. Learn how corrections should work. Long below higher time frame (Hourly/Daily/Weekly) lows is the name of the game.
This should be easy work, and you can feel free to look for longs below 15m lows on the way to the targets above. Once we hit those, we should look for correction after closing below hourly candles, the same way we were able to freely take long after close above hourly candles today just as I prescribed while it was dropping.
This is just the rules of the game 🔓 gotta be sharp enough to observe them and trust the mechanics. Thanks for tuning in
Hits Supply ZoneAfter a sharp drop, price is retracing and reacting to the 19,214.3 resistance zone.
Still inside a descending channel, targeting 18,947.0, where dynamic support and the 200% Fibonacci extension align.
🎯 Entry: Clear rejection from resistance
🛑 Stop: 19,380
✅ Target: 18,947
⚠️ Active management recommended – possible reaction at mid-channel
Structure still confirms bearish momentum (wave 4 in progress). Watch out for fake breakouts!
NAS100 Breakdown Watch: Bearish Structure Forms Below Key Highs1. Key Levels
Yesterday’s High: 20,037.0
Yesterday’s Low: 19,658.8
Today’s High (so far): 19,912.4
Current Price: 19,844.4
Price is currently trading below today’s high and below yesterday’s high, but still well above yesterday’s low.
2. Structure & Market Flow
The BoS/ChoCh (Break of Structure / Change of Character) indicator marks:
Multiple BoS (green) up to the April 30th peak, showing bullish structure.
A ChoCh (red) occurred just after the top on April 30, followed by more ChoCh signals, indicating potential short-term bearish momentum.
Most recent price action shows consolidation between 19,840–19,912, forming a range after rejecting near today's high.
3. Moving Averages (3EMA)
Blue Line (Short EMA - 20): 19,843.0
Purple Line (Mid EMA - 50): 19,840.3
Price is slightly above both the 20 and 50 EMA, which are now flattening — suggesting neutral momentum with no strong trend currently in place.
4. Market Context / Price Action
The sharp rejection at 20,037 (yesterday's high) indicates supply pressure.
Price wicked above today’s high before dropping below both EMAs.
Price bounced around the 50 EMA and appears to be forming lower highs, showing bearish microstructure.
Current structure looks like a potential distribution pattern.
5. Trade Ideas (Scenarios)
A. Bearish Bias (High Probability if 19,840 breaks cleanly)
Entry: Break and close below 19,840 with volume confirmation.
TP1: 19,700 (just above yesterday’s low)
TP2: 19,658.8 (yesterday’s low)
SL: Above 19,912 (today’s high)
This setup capitalizes on a rejection of key highs, a ChoCh confirmation, and fading bullish momentum.
B. Bullish Scenario (Only if we reclaim today’s high)
Entry: Strong 15-min candle close above 19,912, targeting 20,037 and beyond.
TP1: 20,037 (yesterday’s high)
TP2: 20,100–20,150 (psychological and recent rejection zone)
SL: Below 19,840
This would be a breakout-retest continuation trade, but less favorable given current structure.
6. Bias & Recommendation
Short Bias is currently favored due to:
Repeated ChoCh signals
Price trading below today's high and rejecting yesterday’s high
Weak upside follow-through despite attempts to push higher
Tight consolidation and lower highs forming near resistance
Following the Wave StructureAnalysis:
The NASDAQ100 appears to be following a classic 5-wave structure.
Currently, we are finishing Wave 3, with an expected corrective move toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone near 19,018.7.
From there, the chart suggests a continuation toward the 19,879 area (close to the daily 200 EMA) and, finally, toward the 20,866 target, completing the cycle.
Key zones:
Support: 19,018.7 (50% Fibo and strong structural level)
Resistance: 19,879.1 and 20,866.2
Additional levels: Daily 200 EMA and previous structural gaps
The path won't be in a straight line — expect consolidation and pullbacks along the way. However, the bullish projection remains intact as long as the 19,018.7 support holds.
Let's keep riding the wave! 🌊
NAS100 - Stock Market Waiting for a New Stimulus?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index continues to move upwards towards the specified supply zone, one can look for further Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio.
Last week, financial markets experienced a brief sigh of relief as U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to ease tensions by signaling a limited retreat in the tariff war with China, sparking hopes for reduced friction. However, this optimism quickly faded once it became clear that Trump’s retreat was neither substantial nor impactful.
From Beijing’s perspective, the trade war has transcended economic concerns, becoming an issue of national pride and sovereignty. As a result, China, the world’s second-largest economy, is not retreating as easily as Trump anticipated. This stance has evolved into a significant challenge for the White House. U.S. officials indicated that tariffs of 145% could be reduced within two to three weeks if an agreement is reached.
Nonetheless, according to Chinese authorities, negotiations have yet to even begin, raising doubts about Trump’s negotiation tactics. Additionally, other concessions, such as reducing tariffs on American automakers, remain uncertain, and Trump has even threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian car imports.
This environment not only fails to clarify U.S. trade policy but also deepens uncertainty for domestic businesses. Although the White House claims it is monitoring markets closely and Trump is eager to strike deals with key partners, these assurances have not alleviated concerns about the future of the U.S. economy.
In the upcoming week, critical economic data could either intensify or ease current worries. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for April and the JOLTS job openings data for March will be released. The highlight, however, will be the preliminary estimate of GDP growth, scheduled for Wednesday.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts a 2.2% annualized contraction in the U.S. economy for Q1 2025. Meanwhile, a Reuters survey of economists projects a modest 0.4% growth rate, a significant slowdown from Q4’s 2.4% growth.
Accompanying these reports, the ADP private-sector employment data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be published. The core PCE for March is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual rise of 2.5%, down from 2.8% previously. Personal spending is anticipated to maintain its 0.4% monthly growth, reflecting resilient household expenditures.
Additionally, on Wednesday, the Chicago PMI and pending home sales figures will be released. Thursday will bring the Challenger layoffs data for April, but market focus will be on the ISM manufacturing PMI, expected to drop from 49 to 47.9.
The week’s main event will be Friday’s release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Forecasts suggest job growth will slow from 228,000 in March to 130,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Wages are projected to rise by 0.3%.If NFP and PCE data come in weaker than expected, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in June could intensify, although the likelihood of a cut in May will remain low. Such data would likely be bearish for the U.S. dollar but could support equity markets if recession fears do not dominate sentiment.
Some Federal Reserve officials have suggested that if economic conditions deteriorate significantly, rate cuts could start as early as June. Currently, the Fed has maintained high rates to combat inflation but may lower them to support growth and prevent a sharp rise in unemployment if necessary.
Trump’s trade wars pose a dual risk of increasing inflation while hurting employment, complicating the Fed’s monetary policy strategy. Presently, the Fed is in a “wait-and-see” mode, but several officials indicated last week that cuts could begin if economic data worsens.
Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, told CNBC on Thursday that the Fed might lower rates starting in June if signs of economic weakening due to Trump’s sporadic tariffs appear.
Christopher Waller, a Fed Board member, stated on Bloomberg TV that he could foresee rate cuts if the labor market collapses but does not expect such a scenario before July.
On Thursday, Waller remarked, “It would not be surprising to see an increase in layoffs and a higher unemployment rate, especially if major tariffs return. I would expect faster rate cuts once signs of severe labor market deterioration emerge.”
These comments highlight the Fed’s current dilemma as it awaits clearer evidence of significant economic fallout from Trump’s trade wars.
The Federal Reserve’s mandate is to maintain low inflation and unemployment levels. Its primary tool, the federal funds rate, influences borrowing costs across the economy. The Fed can stimulate growth by lowering rates or curb inflation by raising them.
Economists warn that Trump’s tariffs present the risk of simultaneously driving up inflation while damaging employment, forcing the Fed to prioritize which challenge to address first.
NAS100USD: Bullish Scalping Opportunity from SupportGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we identify bullish institutional order flow, and as such, we aim to align with this narrative by seeking buying opportunities.
This setup presents a scalping opportunity on the lower timeframes, with price currently reacting to a bullish order block serving as a key institutional support zone. Upon confirmation, we anticipate a move toward the liquidity pool in premium pricing, which will serve as our target zone for profit-taking.
As always, remain disciplined, wait for clear confirmation, and manage risk accordingly.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
Bullish bounce?NAS100 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 18,908.67
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 18,461.05
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 20,200.53
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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