Heading into pullback resistance, could it reverse?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 18,700.48
1st Support: 18,517.05
1st Resistance: 18,808.45
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DE40 trade ideas
2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Broad bear channel lives on. Bulls printed a big bullish bar closing at it’s high today, right above the daily ema. Today was bullish enough to expect another leg up to at least 18700/18800.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18800
bull case: Globex made the low of the day and bulls actually stayed below 18500 but the CPI print lifted everything up, so they got their spike to 18670. Bulls want at least to touch the upper bear trend line around 18750 tomorrow. 1h 20ema should be support.
Invalidation is below 18550.
bear case: Bears kept it below 18500 which was decent but CPI made them give up. I do think they won’t try to sell this until we get to the upper bear trend line and depending on how strong we move up there, they might not step in until 18800.
Invalidation is above 18700.
short term: If we stay above 18600, it’s max bullishness, until bears get below the 1h 20ema. Below 18500 it get’s bearish again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bull trend since Globex. Not a single 1h bar close below the 1h 20ema.
Exhausted?We've reached a new high at the end of the past week. This week the market seems to be waiting, taking breath. This may mean that at the moment there is no immediate buying interest. An upcoming profit taking may lead to a sharp drop. After such a sharp rise it is not unusual that some profit taking of short term oriented market participants will take place.
Bearish drop?DAX (DE40) is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could potentially drop to the pullback support level.
Pivot: 18,396.65
1st Support: 18,225
1st Resistance: 18,531.90
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2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Looking at the 1h chart, its a broad bear channel with lower highs and lower lows but the lows are 66 points Friday to Monday and 84 points from Monday to Tuesday.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18600
bull case: Bulls are struggling to keep the market above the 1h 20ema but they make bears cover at lower lows. I do not have any opinion on tomorrows direction but if bulls interpret US CPI and FOMC as bullish, I can’t see dax staying down here. Bulls want to trade to the upper bear channel line before CPI and close the gap to today’s opening at 18545. R:R is on the bull side below 18400 since I don’t see bears starting to accelerate this selling unless we get a catalyst.
Invalidation is below 18250.
bear case: Bears keep on selling around 18500 and covering on new lows. Unless we get a bigger catalyst, dax won’t move much. Above 18000 everything is bullish and that’s why bears cover at new lows, they are scalping. Bears hope for some hot US CPI numbers and get the bigger second leg down to 1800 and lower.
Invalidation is above 18600.
short term: Bullish for gap close 18545 and I will be flat going into the news releases. So it has to happen early tomorrow.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Bear trend from the open and we had 8 consecutive bear bars on the 15m chart.
callyesterday we bought Us100 today let's add Ger30 . then my weekly target is about to be reached i will be off for the rest of the week. and there is Fed meeting coming this week so let's stay away from Fundamentals but on ger40 i see an inverse head and shoulder
GER40 the trend is still Bullish**Monthly Chart**
Last month candle dropped lower after creating a record high around 18568.8 level. This drop was due to a large selloff around the record high. However, this month the price continued higher and created a new record high just shy of 19000 level which indicates continues of the bullish long-term directional bias.
**Weekly Chart**
Last two weeks candles closed as dojis which shows a loss of momentum around the high. It will require a large liquidity to push the price higher. Therefore, any retracement or correction will encourage buyers to continue the move.
**Daily Chart**
There are two scenarios on the daily chart, GER40 price might continue higher without retracements and bush higher before changing the trend or the price will have a deeper retracement and then bush higher and grap the liquidity that formed above the new record high. Either way, I am only interested in buying the retracement. The direction is still bullish and there is no indication yet to move lower.
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Bears managed to print a lower low below 18400 but bulls bought it as expected. The recent bear channel is broken and we are in a new bull channel. Trading range price action and you should only buy pull-backs and fade new highs or lows. US session closed it right at Globex high.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18600
bull case: Bulls kept the bullish gap on my daily chart alive and well. They are moving up to 18600 again, where I expect more sellers than buyers. If bulls manage to break above, we will get 18700 next. They are also trading above the 15m and 1h ema, so they are in full control here.
In my weekly post from yesterday I was in favor of the bulls and I hope you profited from it.
Invalidation is below 18383.
bear case: Bears tried again with a lower low but not enough bears are willing to short new lows and that’s why market is in balance and we move up and down. Bears want to keep this below 18600 or risk stronger leg to 18700. 18585 is the close of last week, which i expect will be hit.
Invalidation is above 18700ish.
short term: Bulls are moving this up again. If they can get it above 18600, I favor 18700 next. If 18600 is resistance, we will probably see 18450 or lower again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long the double bottom bar 28 + 37 on a stop one tick above bar 37, was good for 70 points. Bar 54 + 55 were also strong enough bars to consider new longs, if you covered before.
Weekly Technical Analysis 10/06/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 remains inside a tight sideways consolidation of its broader bullish trend, with the price decreasing to 18,435, now below the VWAP of 18,600. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 18,379 and 18,820, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 45, indicating a further moderation in upside momentum compared to the previous report.
UK 100 remains in the consolidation phase of a bullish trend, with the price decreasing towards the June lows, and still below the VWAP of 8,284. Support has adjusted to 8,134, while resistance has increased to 8,434. The RSI has decreased to 42, reflecting a significant weakening in momentum compared to the previous report.
Wall Street has made no major upside or downside progress in the past 3 months - remaining in a neutral consolidation phase, with the price recently decreasing to 38,712, now below the VWAP of 38,925. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 37,893 and 39,958, respectively. The RSI has slightly decreased to 45, signalling a reduction in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing to 79.64 and probing the April lows and 75.00, below the VWAP of 81.27. Support has adjusted lower to 77.24, while resistance has increased to 85.30. The RSI has decreased to 41, indicating a strengthening of bearish momentum compared to the previous report.
Gold is trading sideways in a neutral consolidation since topping in mid-April, with the price recently sharply falling to 2,291, now below the previous VWAP of 2,352. Support has adjusted higher to 2,272, while resistance has decreased to 2,432. The RSI has decreased to 41 alongside a big bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart, indicating new bearish momentum.
EUR/USD remains broadly trendless with the price more recently decreasing to 1.0749, now below the VWAP of 1.0846 - and indicating a possible new phase of weakness. Support has adjusted lower to 1.0768, while resistance has increased to 1.0923. The RSI has decreased to 39, indicating a significant increase in bearish pressure compared to the previous report.
GBP/USD remains in a bullish trend but has transitioned into a corrective phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.2713, now around the VWAP of 1.2738. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2671, and resistance has decreased to 1.2805. The RSI has decreased to 51, indicating a moderation of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend - although it has still not overcome the late April peak - and has just reentered an impulsive phase, with the price increasing slightly to 157.03, now above the previous VWAP of 156.54. Support has adjusted higher to 155.16, while resistance has increased to 157.92. The RSI has decreased to 55, reflecting a moderation of bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
DAX**DAX:**
This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the bottom of the channel and reverse to test the highs.
DAX to find support at market price?GER40 - 24h expiry
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Price action continues to trade around significant highs.
The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment.
Support is located at 18420 and should stem dips to this area.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
We look to Buy at 18425 (stop at 18325) 2,5RR
Our profit targets will be 18675 and 18745
Resistance: 18540 / 18605 / 18700
Support: 18486 / 18421 / 18361
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#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well.
dax xetra - this is the first time I post a xetra chart as well. I trade the dax cfd but I want to find out how big the interest in my post is for xetra vs cfd. Only difference is in price.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They closed 3 consecutive days below the daily 20ema and it was the 3rd consecutive monthly close below 18500. They also printed 3 consecutive weekly bear bars. Having said all that, bears sold off for 525 points while the last pull-back from the previous ath sold off for 940 points. So what did they accomplish in the past 3 weeks? Not much. Are they really betting on a big acceleration downward now at the bull trend line, after they tried for 3 weeks now or will the face the reality, that the market does not want to go lower and will give up on shorts? Only possibility I see is that they get a big big gap down on Monday Globex or early on to stay below the breakout price of 18500ish (counting only the bar body). If bulls get above the daily ema again, I think they will give up and they would try again 18770 or possibly even wait for 18880 again. If we get a leg up and it’s strong, I can see bears just not even trying and we would find out where bulls want to take it.
comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18550 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 / 18900
bull case: It’s a trading range near the ath and that’s all there is to it. If market was rejecting higher prices, we would have traded below 18000 long time ago. The bullish gap#2 stayed open and there is an argument for a head & shoulders bottom with the neckline 17700 and a measured move would bring us right back to retest 18900.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Unless bears print a big daily bear bar below 18400, they are not doing much. Thursday and Friday we made higher highs and higher lows and I do think bears will give up on Monday if the buying pressure is strong enough. Not much more magic to it currently.
Invalidation is a daily close above 18650.
outlook last week: “In favor of bulls, if they break 18650 early next week. TP 18770 at least but I think we can do a total ripper. If bears somehow manage to keep it below 18700, we can retest the lows and if they do a big surprise below 18400, we will see 18250 fast and below that is 17900.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18497 and now we are at 18557. Bulls got a higher high but bears kept it below 18650 for the week. Not the worst outlook but not on point either.
short term: Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 17900 over the next 1-3 weeks.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again.
current swing trade: None and depending on Wednesday, I will initiate new positions.
Chart update: The wave thesis is gone. This sideways movement has gone on for too long and we might see 18890 again but just as a leg inside a trading range. If it strongly moves way beyond 18900, I’m wrong and we might be on our way to 19400 or 20000.
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax cfd
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They closed 3 consecutive days below the daily 20ema and it was the 3rd consecutive monthly close below 18800. They also printed 3 consecutive weekly bear bars. Having said all that, bears sold off for 572 points while the last pull-back from the previous ath sold off for 1229 points. So what did they accomplish in the past 3 weeks? Not much. Are they really betting on a big acceleration downward now at the bull trend line, after they tried for 3 weeks now or will the face the reality, that the market does not want to go lower and will give up on shorts? Only possibility I see is that they get a big big gap down on Monday Globex or early on to stay below the breakout price of 18650ish (counting only the bar body). If bulls get above the daily ema again, I think they will give up and they would try again 18800 or possibly even wait for 19000 again. If we get a leg up and it’s strong, I can see bears just not even trying and we would find out where bulls want to take it.
comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18600 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 / 19000
bull case: It’s a trading range near the ath and that’s all there is to it. If market was rejecting higher prices, we would have traded below 18000 long time ago. The bullish gap#2 stayed open and there is an argument for a head & shoulders bottom with the neckline 18600 and a measured move would bring us right back to retest 19000.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Unless bears print a big daily bear bar below 18400, they are not doing much. Thursday and Friday we made higher highs and higher lows and I do think bears will give up on Monday if the buying pressure is strong enough. Not much more magic to it currently.
Invalidation is a daily close above 18700.
outlook last week: “In favor of bulls, if they break 18700 early next week. TP 18800 at least but I think we can do a total ripper. If bears somehow manage to keep it below 18700, we can retest the lows and if they do a big surprise below 18400, we will see 18300 fast and below that is 18000.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18638 and now we are at 18572. Bulls got a higher high but bears kept it below 18700 for the week. Not the worst outlook but not on point either.
short term: Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 18000 over the next 1-3 weeks.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again.
current swing trade: None and depending on Wednesday, I will initiate new positions.
Chart update: The wave thesis is gone. This sideways movement has gone on for too long and we might see 19000 again but just as a leg inside a trading range. If it strongly moves way beyond 19000, I’m wrong and we might be on our way to 19500 or 20000.
Ger30Ger30 Clean setup.If you know you Smart money concepts,then you know that this is a clean setup .
Ahaed of Fed Decision on WednesdayAs we can see on Us30 we are still inside the previous months candle and are looking to break out. Last week the candle was also inside the previous week candle which could indicate the markets are ready for a big move. I would like to see price push higher taking last weeks high, but price are reacted bullish on the 39028.55 level so I will be looking out for signs of coninued bullish behaviour.
Ger40 is another highly correlated pair and it has been quite choppy and bearish since the middle of May, the bearish volume is pretty weak so I will expect it to go up along with good data pretty soon. I can see on the 4H price has close above June 03 highs which could indicated a change of structure if price is not able to reach previous weeks lows.
DAX rising weaklyMarkets rose on Wednesday, recovering losses from the previous session in anticipation of important data on regional activity and awaiting the ECB's latest monetary policy meeting. At the open, it was up 0.4%. It was followed by the French CAC40 and the FTSE 100 with 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, and finally the Spanish IBEX35 with around 0.4%. A rate cut of 25 basis points from record levels is expected today, heavily influenced and persuaded by signs of moderation in European inflation. The rapidly changing earnings outlook is what is driving this policy possibility. Doubts remain about what will be accepted going into the rest of the year after slightly better-than-forecast inflation data for the eurozone.
The French PMI was similar to expectations overall, but services and composite details were slightly lower, the Spanish PMI slightly better than expected, the Italian PMI disappointed with its lower than expected data, and the German data provided relief by improving expectations. The overall Eurozone as a whole showed for the month of April a larger decline being -1% versus -0.5% expected and on an annual basis, -5.7% versus -5.1% expected. Today we have European Parliament elections across Europe, so PMI and production releases in Spain, Italy, France and Germany, which were expected to be better and did not meet expectations, will most likely affect the currency. Retail sales are expected to be negative due to the slowdown in consumption across Europe, so we will just want to see what the central bank tells us this afternoon.
Regarding the German index, as we said, it has recovered its bullish mood this day. It has come out of the bearish trading zone of the last few weeks. Since Monday, the German spread has recovered 1.70%. We have to see if it will go back above the all-time highs this Friday or look to do so from next week onwards. What is clear on the chart is that the Trading Point is in the 17,000 zone, the shape being the bell of a possible triple bell with no excessive volume at its top, and the RSI at the moment is in the middle zone. For this reason it would not be unusual to see the German index pierce and pull back strongly to at least the area of 18,279 points approximately.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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DAX H4 | Heading into swing-high resistanceThe DAX (GER30) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 18,855.31 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 18,960.0 which is a level that sits above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level and the all-time high.
Take profit is at 18,595.85 which is an overlap support.
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Short DAX ideaThe simple ideas are often the best! Lets see DAX pull back a few 100 points around these levels.
Long DAXseems like a decent technical level, and with prospects of lower interest rates, I think this could be a decent buy.
G30 we see buyers in control From a selling momentum in previous days we can except G30 to go pu to test the highest high as a change in direction is shown
2024-06-05 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market is much less euphoric than the others. Obviously trending up but still below 18700, which was big resistance last time. Bulls already had 3 pushes up inside the wedge and deep pull-backs in between, which shows selling pressure and no giving up by the bears. What are the odds, that dax follows the sp500 and nq pump today for a new ath? Low imo. If bulls had it in them, we would have seen it already. If we will melt-through 18700, I’m obviously wrong and you need to get long for the rocket ride to 19000.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18750
bull case: Bulls made 18500 resistance and had a strong rally to 18660 where the bear trend line ran through. Bulls quickly gave up after it stalled there and we got a tick-perfect retest of the opening price, which again, bulls bought aggressively to make a new high at 18678, which is 20 points below the open of the week and 10 below the open of the month. So huge resistance above and I would not bet on a breakout here, unless bulls just melt through with follow through. Bulls closed above the daily 20ema which helps their case.
Invalidation is below 18550.
bear case: Bears tried to get below 18530 multiple times in the EU session but failed and gave up for a 143 point rally. They see this bull wedge with 3 pushes up and want a reversal down and break below the wedge to 18450. R:R above 18650 is on the bear side and I will look for weakness against 18700.
Invalidation is above 18710.
short term: Neutral with slight bearish hopes. Bears need to keep it below 18700. If they fail, I will turn full bull for 19000 or higher.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bar 28 + 33 were big bear bars with big tails below and both could not close below 18530. Bears were warned there and bulls had to get long latest at bar 39 which was the third consecutive bull bar and a close above the 15m 20ema. From there you could have drawn the lower bull trend line and get long on bar 57 again.
