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VIX trade ideas

Fed today and expected moves in price and volThe Fed decision today with probably give the market their expected 25bp hike, the devil in the detail is always the press conference and any potential guidance offered, the market is pricing in much slower and ending to rate hikes and possible cuts by year-end. BUT he has consistently said there will be not cuts this year !! and that could disappoint bulls and a quick reversal could ensue. place your bets and good luck out there. Today is about watch the first hour after the announcement manage existing positions and don't get sucked into the frenzy after the announcement the Algo's will kill you
TVC:VIX
by MarkLangley
Largest Crash of our Lifetimes is here! For Starters - Go Watch this guy as he is 100% spot on. twitter.com Lets start with a Chart of the VIX From October 12th (the bottom of the last market rally). Using the 1hr $VIX Chart, you can see we have 5 open gaps. We filled the last gap TODAY: And in fact - we now have a gap overhead! And the VIX bottomed directly into its 100month SMA. If you watch the SPX and the $VIX side by side, this rally has been mechanical and algo driven, filling both SPX and VIX gaps during the entire rally. Onto the SPX. SPX I think set a very sneaky bull trap at the 200dma this week. We are back into an upper trendline which is where the 50w sits as well. SPX has a small open gap at 4200 - but that is going to be REALLY tough to fill from here. What SPX does have is open gaps all the way down to 910 from 2008 Here is where the real pressure come from - Bond yields are about to Each Selloff in the SPX from this upper trendline area has been around a 20% drop. This would take us down to ~ 3200 on SPX and fill lots of downside gaps. The REAL Driver - Bonds. The bond market has largely priced in all of the Fed Rates Hikes and has moved on. What it is starting to look for now is "what is next". What comes next is the slaughter of earnings in Q1 of 2023. Here I show the 2yr Bond (which is basically the shadow Fed Funds Rate) in candles, the actual Fed Funds Rate in Orange, and $TLT in Blue. What you can see is that basically EVERY TIME that the 2yr (candles) crosses BELOW the Fed Funds rate (Orange Line) - the long bond (blue line) starts a massive rally as the next Fed rate cut cycle is coming into play. What Bulls don't understand is that when the Fed is cutting rates in a global recession - that isn't bullish. It's VERY bearish because the underlying economy is deteriorating and the companies earnings are crashing. If you aren't long Bonds already, start building a position. TLT could easily double in the next year. The 2s/10s Yield Curve is the most inverted it has been in HISTORY You want to buy bonds when the curve start to UN-INVERT as this means the front end of the curve is going to 0, and you will get massive capital appreciation of long bond holdings like TLT Energy has already caught on Energy stocks are WAY overdone - and Oil is starting its next big leg down. Oil is extremely sensitive and has already caught on to the coming massive global recession in 2023. How to Play This 1) Buy Long bonds like $TLT or $ZROZ 2) Short indexes/banks/Semi Conductors / Energy
TVC:VIXShort
by Baero-Trading
16
The curious case for a $28 VIX trip... FUD about to hit markets?FUD FUD FUD, Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. The 3 letters every trader on the street should know. No matter if you are dealing with Cryptocurrencies, Stocks or Forex, no one wants to wake up to an overnight position hit by FUD. The VIX has long been known as the leading indicator as to the sentiment of the markets. It is known as the fear index and right now it is unreasonably low compared to recent history and current events. I mean we did just arrest our previous President and current candidate for President. Away from politics we also found ourselves in a currency war with the BLOC using the Chinese Yuan for settlements over the US Dollar. Well aside from economics, we still are funding our ongoing proxy war in Ukraine with the only other 2 superpowers on the planet. Well, Away from politics, economics, and war.... Oh wait, yeah the data on our economy came in pretty meh (not impressive). So why in the world would the VIX be representing so much strength? Careful, you are starting to think for yourself and our TV overlords don't like that so much. But you are starting down the right track. The VIX should be easily in the low to mid 20's but instead its flexing at 19.01?!? For reference the 50 Moving Average is 20.63 and the midline of the current Bollinger Bands is 22.04 with the low band being 16.83 and the high band being 27.25. If I was thinking about the next few weeks I would probably think that our world right now is providing significant enough risk to justify a trip northward towards the midline @ 22.04 but actually even higher to the high band of 27.25. Recently we touched 29 multiple times in recent weeks but immediately rejected and shot down to the 19.01 where we sit currently. Rejecting off a ceiling once, twice and even sometimes three times is common but I probably wouldn't need very many fingers to count the times an Index pegged a ceiling 4 times and didnt break through it significantly. The market has stayed propped up on hopium for long enough and now its time to start pricing in reality. All is NOT well. I don't view this as a doomsday scenario at all but we need to move closer to reality. I see 28 as a start, it would signify the markets beginning to accept reality and no longer rely on the Buy the Dip hopium that retail investors bankrupted themselves on over the last 2 years. $28 Vix is what i see coming. Just documenting my own thoughts from my own charts. Dont mind me. Most likely not a human anyway.
TVC:VIXLong
by TheStockMarketSniper
2
VIX Major Crisis RainbowHi all, I've stumbled upon a pattern that seems to play out when the hottest new major crisis drops. I've color-coded the various sections on this pattern, and I'll attempt to give a breakdown of each. Let's begin. Stealth Phase - Grey In this phase, it seems that the market is performing some sort of rally, and so the VIX lowers a little bit. During this, the cause of the recession is known to very few. These insiders may make large selling moves into the rally, but otherwise, it's impossible to tell that anything is wrong. Lehman Brothers on the verge of collapse in 2008, the Covid virus not being taken too seriously in 2020, and today's Fed Tightening being dismissed by talking heads and the generally optimistic. Initial Impact - Red Once the bad news really gets broadcast and sinks in, the market drops a bit. This causes a steep incline on the VIX, signaling (of course) higher volatility. This initial impact is followed by more spikes, noted on the chart in a lighter red. In 2008 this was the Lehman Brothers collapse. In 2020, it was around the time that the first Covid case was announced in the USA. Today, this is the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature, and Credit Suisse. Immediate Return Rally - Orange The extremely optimistic, those in denial, and the ones wanting out, will rally the market into a higher state. This, in turn, causes the VIX to shrink back down. The VIX may in fact shrink to its previous levels, before the initial impact even came around. In 2008, this rebound came about after Lehman collapsed. In 2020, this was mid-January to mid-February. In 2020, this is where we are now. Total dismissal of the collapse of some very large banks, and a plea for higher highs. As a side note, I do find it amusing that the past few days have seen such a large market rally. It just happens to be that the end of the quarter, when large money managers are trying to get their bonus, that we see such a severe rally. In fact, we've seen the S&P 500 seem to break out of its major resistances. While this is usually bullish behavior, I personally discredit this move as a classic pump-and-dump. While we may see the markets move higher by another couple percent, it is more likely that these managers are done calculating their bonuses and will rush to withdraw their profits. Retail traders will likely be left holding the bag as next week's conditions rapidly decline. Back-To-Back Selloffs - Yellow Once the rebound enthusiasm of the market wears off, the selling really kicks in. The first leg down catches unprepared traders by surprise. A fluke, they think. And so we see them catch the falling knife. But when this pressure doesn't let up as well as they thought it would, a second wave of selling proceeds. Relief Rally - Green After taking a major beating, the resistance of the market comes to head. We find a temporary bottom due to the oversold nature of things, and a relief rally is in order. The optimistic, once again, will see this as the bottom and even as we continue back down the move will be dismissed as a double-bottom. Return to Panic - Turqoise It seems that as we proceed past the double-bottom, the market becomes confused on which direction it should go. Accelerate or decelerate? This brief period seems to be different. Crown of Despair - Cyan Yes, finally, our journey is at an end. This is marked by not one, or two, but three distinct spikes in the VIX as it tops out. This signifies our market bottom, at least for 2008 and 2020. Road to Recovery - Blue The road to recovery is a bumpy one. After we've reached market bottom, the VIX seems to pop higher once more and then take a break. After this, there are three distinct pops in the VIX as we return back to normal market conditions. The middle of these three seems to be a bit more drawn out. While this chart certainly can't predict the future, it is very interesting to see the clear similarities between 2008 and 2020. Not to mention the similarities both of those have to today's market. The psychology of the market during a large downturn is extremely hard to predict. There have been many crashes in the market that don't follow this highly specific model. 2000's Tech Bubble, for example, does come very close and appears to have all of the pieces- but things are a little more distorted, and perhaps overlap each other. The "Crown of Despair" in that case is malformed and, admittedly, just a single spike. I would have liked to test this theory on some other major crashes, but the VIX indicator was only introduced in 1993. What are your thoughts?
TVC:VIX
by CozmicKnight
4
VIX - is the sell 20, buy 30 strategy done?Throughout 2022 you would have done VERY well taking profit when the TVC:VIX hit 20 and accumulating when the VIX hit 30. But has this trend concluded? This movement and profit/accumulation opportunity is consistent with the most recent tightening from 2017 to 2018 where fed funds were rising, and the yield for 2 year treasuries in the bond market exceeded fed funds. When the yield for 2 year treasuries fell below fed funds the VIX remained below 20 until covid hit. The VIX spiked during covid and consistently descended while the market expanded. This pattern is only observed in the most recent cycle and not something that we see consistently repeated historically. If the 2 year remains below fed funds, should not expect the VIX to range between 20 to 30 or will 20 to become the ceiling?
TVC:VIXLong
by Ben_1148x2
VIX -INVESTORS FEAR/GREED INDICATORVIX showing signals of a bullish market open 1)I believe something will big will happen to the market in the upcoming days as the VIX is almost reaching a new All time Low possibly indicating a bullish shift in the market. 2) In the second chart shown, it seems like the VIX will enter a free fall. How to translate the VIX: Above 20 we are bearish and below 20 we are bullish. The VIX indicator is a representation of investor fear in the market. As the fear grows, the number increases making it bad for the market overall. Why should we care? -This indicator has successfully predicted the 2008 crash and Corona crash. It is a very powerful indicator when it comes to knowing how investors feel psychologically about the market.
CBOE:VIX
by CryptoGao1
$VIX has sold off after top call, now what? The $VIX is trading within the symmetrical triangle, still. As mentioned many times over the last year this pattern can take many months to resolve. Long term traders have to be patient until this revolves. Short and intermediate time frame traders can use the tops and bottoms to implement buys and sells to maximize profit. It's what we've been doing. At the moment it looks like the bottom part of the trend is calling. Not to pat ourselves in the back, again and again, we did call this to be a volatile year. Don't see a resolution to that until the triangle is broken.
CBOE:VIX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$VIX - Something is brewingIn my previous post, I outlined where $SPY rejected off the bear flag resistance. You'll see that those two times correlate with the two times $VIX tested pennant support. With the third VIX retest, we may see $SPY near my gray TL of ~$400 (see related idea linked). I'm still expecting another leg down, and will take a short position if I see optimal R:R (I'll update). No doubt, today was a boring day for $SPY. As I outlined in my update above, staying patient and understanding the right time to execute is what'll get you the W. Good luck!
TVC:VIX
by theapearmy