VXX - Expecting a drop!-Volatility needs to go down.
-Expect a good amount of sideways movement from the market
-Good time to sell call/put options!
iiiPath Select MLP ETN
28.92USDR
+0.07+0.24%
Last update at Jun 18, 20:24 GMT
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ATMP trade ideas
VXX finally getting ready to rumble?VXX has been very consistent in its following trend lines and over the last week it has dipped below its major support line. The news from the Fed today has clearly started some level of pull back in the markets (DJI has been showing that for a week). Now will this just be a side ways move or something more substantial? The markets has defied all odds so far so it may be good to wait for confirmation, but if you are a risk taker maybe something to consider.
4h
4h close up
2h
VXX - Sideways into the "Move"We continue adding to our Buy to Opens in the M1/M2 VXX Short Dated 30 day rolling maturity.
Front Month M1 has held support repeatedly, 18.60 for the M1.
Daily Weekly Monthly Supports are holding and presenting a large opportunity for levered gains.
VXMT is supportive of a move higher.
Probability remains extreme @ +86%
VXX - Volatility IMPLIES a reversal today 86% We are loading the woodshed on VXX and the VX Curve M1-M3.
The comical chase is having second thoughts.
NVDA is a prime example... utterly devoid of common sense.
Simply more chasing of Big Green Bars.
We are bag holders of 75 NVDA Puts:
225
223..75
222.5
221.25
220
Alex sez load em up HK
She was correct, on balance +13.88% at present/more to come.
VXX - ES Weakening with even greater Technical DivergencesVXX coming back to lower end of Range.
We are preparing for a large Selloff in the next 48 hours.
VXX Entries are Laddered down to 24.50 from 27.05.
M1/M2/M3 VX Curve as well M3-M4 provide pressure for now...
Only for Low Participation - We anticipate a High Tomorrow at the
latest for ES.
It can hold off as late as Globex... we'll be 40% into our SELL with
the follow on SELLs into September TF 8th - 21st.
December will be our Futures SELL, SEP the Hedge.
VIX - ConvergenceCASH/SPOT VIX will converge with AUGUST CT @ Close as it always does.
As we move from AUG M1 settle into SEP (M1) / M2 (OCT) the spread is now
24 Ticks.
Pay close attention to how it squares end of day.
It will provide solid indications for Thursday/Friday EOW trading.
Settlement has a decided SKEW to those paying close attention :)
VXX - Adds beginning @ 1K per Handle to 25M1/V1 & M2/V2 Roll is in trade.
Settlement occurs the same day (Wednesday)
as the FED Minutes.
We're cool with being early, it's better than
late when this blows up and it is setup to do so.
The Speculators want a massive blow off.
5K ES everyone.
Yeah, naw. Not yet, we need to see a panic sell
in order for the FED to double down... and they will.
Then, we will see these insane targets for ES YM NQ RTY.
The VIX is going to explode higher when it reverses, 30%
in a single day as the reversal takes hold.
VXX - Amazing Trade Setting UpA solid Hedge for VIX Complex Traders is the VXX.
VXX is comprised of Short Volatility Instruments - M1 (or Front Month of
VIX Futures Contract "July" until tomorrow's settlement) and M2 (August
VIX Futures Contract).
Yesterday we observed the Short End of the VIX Curve trade to "Par" where
July and August traded to 2460 simultaneously.
The Short End of the Curve immediately was SOLD heavily as the threat of
Backwardation was not to be permitted in the Curve.
When Backwardation in the Volatility Curve occurs, it is a leading indicator
of the "Potential" for a large move higher in Price of the Complex. This
threat was SOLD into immediately.
We immediately SOLD VXX against Buys we had opened @ 20 on the July VX
and began selling July as price moved to 21s - 2365 was our preferred exit
pivot for the burst higher.
The VIX has broken 2285, 2175, 2075 at present on the Front Month settling
tomorrow. 100% of the VXX will be contained within August VIX and the Roll
into September VIX will continue into the next Rollover.
BY example - Aug @ 96% / Sep @ 4% on the 22nd of July. The accumulation
of the Sept. VIX Contract will continue until it is solely comprised of Sep VIX
at the next Rollover for Aug.
Sep VIX slowly builds from 0% to 100% as we move from Contract Rollover to
Contract Rollover.
As the Chart above illustrates, there is opportunity within the VXX during
these times. Using the VXX as a hedge against the VXM (Micro VIX Contract)
can be immensely rewarding - Traders can use both sides of the Trade, knowing
"Backwardation" will not be permitted (until it cannot be contained).
VXX Sold Calls - 16 Jul & 23 Jul ExpiryI'm weary of my exposure to VXX and will try to reduce my exposure to it. For now, the price action seems to be stabilizing below the S/R line of $38. This month's entries seem tight due to the price offerings and when I entered. I'm not totally happy but it is manageable just not as defensive (Previous VXX trade I could get a good price at +60% from the strike)
I might exit these trades a week early and take a smaller profit so that I can get better Aug prices.
My Concerns on the VXX:
1) Inflation worries seem to be quietened but this will come back
2) VXX has an exposure to the Tech sector and that sector is pretty volatile especially with it's crazy bullish moves
Sold 45 Calls @ 1.02 Strike 51 - Expiry 16 July
Sold 15 Calls @ 0.82 Strike 46 - Expiry 23 July
BP Block: 53K
Max Gain: Est $5285.76
% Distance to Strike 51: 37%
% Distance to Strike 46: 29%
