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VXN2025 trade ideas

VX Coming Back to LifeToday's opening 15 minutes was one of the more wild ones I've seen. It's been a wild week in general. Every single morning we have been hit with war fear news right at open. Each one led to a big VX spike and near instant recovery. You can see the huge spikes every morning, starting with last Friday. What I think is important here is that it has came right back up every time. Despite getting sold off after every rip, it ends up higher a few days later. This is a big change from what we've seen this year. VX has not been able to sustain any moves up whatsoever. I'm seeing a lot of potential strength being built up. We have another descending bullish wedge formation, this one is more of a broadening wedge. We'll see if this time is any different. Looking for a move up to 18.40 or back down to 15.25. All of these dips on SPY getting bought could very well lead to more upside and squeezes. My intuition tells me this has not been normal action and the market is preparing for a big move after whip sawing back and forth all week. a VX breakout would confirm that will be a move to the downside, especially if SPY falls below $585 at the same time.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #1 - VX Falling WedgeWill be watching this wedge on VX throughout the week for directional bias on SPY. VX is near the top end now trying to break. If it does break up, first target is 16.60 followed by ~17. To the downside, it has critical support around 15.25, we could see another big leg up for SPY if it breaks below and continues falling. Will be cautious with longs if VX breaks out, but if it continues getting crushed it'll be back to risk on mode after a brief pause late last week. This chart alone should provide a lot of valuable info, especially when you combine it with SPY.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
VX Paths Before FOMCLooks like we'll have a pretty good setup with VX during or after FOMC. We'll probably get some volatile movements after the minutes release and then more volatility during and after Powell's speech starting 30 minutes later. VX has been getting crushed all week, back below 16 now. This will be a key watch during the volatility. I could see it spiking up to 16 and failing. If we get an initial sell off, you could look for longs when VX hits 16, stop above. Other scenario is VX doesn't rally at all and goes straight down even more which would spark yet another rally for SPY. Downside target = ~14.75 First upside target = 16.60 VX below 16 = Bullish SPY VX above 16 = Bearish SPY
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #3 - VX Risk On?VX has had a hard rejection off of the 21 area. It failed to breakout of its bull flag and instead fell all the way back below support around 18.40. Two massive red days in a row for VX leading into the election results and FOMC. The market is seemingly going full risk on mode heading into the election. That typically means we're going to rocket in my experience, but also leaves the door open for extreme volatility if the market gets a surprise. Having said all that, this 18.40-18.20 area is critical for rest of the week and it makes things fairly simple. Final downside target for VX would be around 16.45. VX below 18.40 = Bullish for SPY VX above 18.40 = Bearish for SPY
CBOE:VX1!Short
by AdvancedPlays
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 - VX Critical SupportTo wrap up the ideas for this week I have to choose VX, I don't trade it directly but it will be key to determine the direction for the rest of the week. So far it has held around 18.40, which was also last week's low. In addition to the 18.40 support here we also have trendline support. First upside target would be around 18.90 and then 19.40. Last week's low is one of the most critical things in the market right now for this week if you ask me. If VX ends up failing here, we will most likely see the melt up continue and gain momentum. Otherwise we may chop around if VX holds the range, if it happens to break above 19.40 that's when it comes time to be bearish on ES.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #4 - VX S/R FlipBig move up for VX after bouncing near 18.40. This is mostly due to some weakness in semis after leaked earnings on ASML. 19.40 will be a key area on VX moving forward. If it goes up there and fails I'd be looking for longs on ES/SPY. If it's able to break above and continue higher, I'll start looking for shorts. Overall, the range is from 19.40 - 18.40 so I'm looking for the top end of the range to fail or a breakout above if it doesn't hold.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
VX Ascending ChannelVX has shown a lot of strength over the last couple of weeks which I consider to be unusual. DXY and treasury yields have also spiked recently, but the equity market remains resilient. We've been chopping for weeks and we'll likely see a big move once this range breaks. VX had a big red day today after rejecting a previous high. This is what VX would normally do when stocks are rallying, but that hasn't been the case until today. VX dropped today, but it's still way too high. This is a large divergence that has been building for weeks. We should see some fireworks soon, maybe after CPI but who knows. If this recent VX strength results in a failure then it has a long way to fall and we may be back to full risk on mode for a while. It will be an important watch. I'd be concerned watching treasury yields and VX climb along with stocks if I were a bull. but we'll see.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
1
Using VIX futures to manage equity risk over the US Election One-way traders can look at expected volatility and movement in the S&P500 over the US election volatility is by looking at the premium or the differential that VIX October futures hold over VIX November futures. Because the VIX index takes in a series of S&P500 options strikes that blend to create a 30-day implied volatility, the October VIX futures essentially looks at S&P500 volatility over the November US election. Therefore, the higher the premium for VIX October futures over November futures, the greater demand for volatility over the election and the greater the implied movement in US equity markets. This can be useful for traders who look at event risk and consider the propensity and extent of movement, and whether they want to hold exposures over that risk. The code in TradingView to use is - VXV2024-CBOE:VXX2024
CBOE:VXV2024
by Pepperstone
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #1 - VX Falling WedgeI posted a similar chart last week, but as I'm looking at things after today's action I still think this is the most important thing in the market right now so it's going at #1 even if I don't plan to trade it directly. I wouldn't recommend trading VIX or UVXY, maybe VX futures but that's not for me. Instead, I used the VX futures to determine direction on ES. This will make things very simple if we actually move this week unlike today. VX has been hanging around even throughout the recent rally to ATH. I think this is noteworthy, but still need confirmation it's going to continue to stick around and potentially gain strength. This pattern gives us the confirmation we need, it should tell all. If we get the upside break and it can take out the 19.20 level, I would expect it to continue up to at least 22.60. That's the recent swing high and is also just below the flag pole target. If VX fails and falls below the wedge, that would also mean it broke below 16.45, which is the line in the sand. If VX can't hold there, it's time for more risk on. TLDR: VX below 19.20 = bullish for ES VX below 16.45 = really bullish for ES VX above 19.20 = bearish for ES VX above 22.60 = really bearish for ES
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Using VX to Spot Divergences + Intraweek UpdateWe've had some great examples of clear VX divergences lately so I wanted to highlight that here. VX is a key component of my strategy and I don't believe it is used enough by most traders. It'll be important to monitor moving forward as we see rising volatility and global tensions. I also go over the most important levels and watches for the remainder of the week. Maybe it's another short lived sell off, but I believe there's going to be a point where perma bulls buying every dip are going to wish they hadn't. We'll see, if VX explodes over 22.60 this week I'd be very careful on either side. Expect big ranges until VX falls back down. Money can be made very quickly in a market like this if you learn how to use spot key levels on the major indexes and VX. It doesn't come without risk, but remember you don't have to know where price is headed next to make money.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
VX Falling WedgeI was watching the 19.20 level before FOMC and VX didn't even get close. However, it is holding up better than I'd expect on a day like today. It has been pretty flat lately rather than only going down like in the summer. It has a falling wedge that may lead to a big breakout and test of the 19.20 area. QQQ is at some pretty important resistance so given that it's rejecting there and VX is doing this I would be cautious longing here. I'd be cautious about chasing a move like this in general anyway. If we see VX break below this wedge, I'd expect more upside for equities and for VX to go back down to 16.45. That would be a good spot to consider taking profit on longs if that plays out. If it does breakout to the upside, look out below.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
VX Paths Ahead of FOMCVX will be very important to monitor during today's volatility. For a basic short term view, I think this chart will work well. For the center line in the sand we have the 19.20 level. We also have some shorter term trendlines along with some more major support and resistance. So we can just look for VX to break or come into these areas. For now, if VX remains below 19.20 and has a trend break to the downside, I'd expect bullish action on equities and for VX to head back to 16.45. Otherwise if VX can reclaim 19.20 and sustain a breakout, I'd expect it to hit the 22.60 area. Major resistance: 22.60 Major support: 16.45 Middle: 19.20
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
Jackson Hole PreviewSome quick thoughts about the current rate cut expectations and what I expect for the market reaction to Powell's speech. I think for the most part it should be avoided until things are more clear, but once we finally get the first cut I think the market will begin to pick the real direction we're going to see for the next 3-6 months. I think it'll be a sell the news event, but maybe it'll be like June and we'll just melt up for weeks. Remember it starts after open on Friday and we also have some jobs and PMI data in the morning tomorrow.
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
3
VX Paths Moving ForwardVX is still deciding if it wants to hold this 15.50 area on a retest or not. For now it is holding and reclaimed after only a few hours below intraday. This is also a retest of the trendline breakout from 2022 that I've talked so much about. This is everything here, nothing else matters to me in the grand scheme of things. I believe we just experienced yet another exit liquidity rally and it's near the end. I may be wrong, but what's important is that I know when I'm wrong as soon as possible. I will know I'm wrong if VX can not hold above 15.50. It's looking a lot more bullish now, broke the downtrend and heading up for a test of 16.25
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Dow Theory: A Guide to Trend FollowingThis is a follow up idea from my recent idea about a trade setup on the Nasdaq that I thought was an excellent opportunity due to the major trend break that had lasted nearly a full year. We'll see if that ends up working out for me or not. I think it's too soon to say, but as of now it did break above and close above the line on Friday. This is a short version with some more examples, but you can check out the last video along with most of my ideas because they almost all include trend analysis. I think the power of using Dow Theory and basic trendlines is often overlooked. This is why my charts don't have indicators on them, trend following is all I need to be profitable. There are many ways to trade and all kinds of strategies you can make money with, but this is how I do it and it's how legends like Jesse Livermore did it over 100 years ago.
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CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
5