UB1! trade ideas
💡#i37 : Is Any One As ❤️🔥 For Bonds As I ? 🤓 💵 💰ULTRA U.S. TREASURY BOND FUTURES 🗽
What A Tremendous Name
Dripping With Imperial Greatness.
Bonds Are The Cornerstone Of
Our Debt Based Monetary System.
As Such, Correct Usage Of Bonds
Can Form The Cornerstone Of
A Diversified Personal Portfolio 📊
If You Call You're A Financier, 💸
You Must Understand The Bond 🤵🏻♂️
I'm Going To Approach This Idea
From 3 Unique Perspectives :
The Ultra Bond CBOT:UB1!
The 30 Year Yield TVC:US30Y
The US Dollar FX:USDOLLAR
Detailed Variants of Idea Charts Below 🖼️🎨
Fake out or Break Out
Bonds Higher
Yen Higher
US Dollar (DXY) Higher
You can see Ultra Bonds broken resistance and the Yen is trying to.
The Yen has been churning for weeks.
Both shown on six hour chart.
The Dollar is at the top of its range - breaks up a bit more it scare people, gets close 95
And maybe the best barometer CNBC just posted moments ago 'Stocks could soar to new highs in week ahead - even though inflation data came in hot' This is not news.
AAPLE looks tapped out its higher on negative divergence.
VIX up 6%
If Jay Powell doesn't the nod the market will react negatively - this a wild card.
Bond Futures Rallying. Short equities into next week.Bond futures are rallying further this morning. It started yesterday and they are only accelerating. It's hard for me to believe that this acceleration is from the fed again. It is either old bitcoin investors that were scared away, or the investment funds are parkling their money somewhere "safe" for a few weeks until the fed speaks on June 15th. Something to keep an eye on.
Are bonds ready for a bounce?Bond have fallen a lot and quite fast. The sentiment is really stretched and most expect yields to rise more (bonds to fall lower). In my opinion there is quite a decent chance the bond bull market is over given that we had a massive blow off top in March 2020, but this doesn't mean that I don't see a potential bounce here or even bottom. Bonds hit key support, swept the lows before the big move up and are no showing signs of life.
When I see so much debt, when I see slow growth and all the bad things going on around us... I don't think we'll get huge inflation any time soon. To me this is cyclical inflation after a supply shock rather than anything else. Many other yields are decreasing and spreads are the tightest they've been in years, so why would bonds go much lower? The Fed has failed to meet its inflation target for years, but they are going to make it now? We are also post the SLR cliff that could had been the 'sell the rumour buy the news event'
US Utra Treasuries sink to new low. The price of US Ultra T-Bonds have fallen below a key level of 180.00 (Trading view's instrument is decimalised and shows 18000), this is on the rise of US longer dated yields approaching nearly 2.5%. The 30 Year Rate is projected to reach 2.75% and even 3%, based on rising inflation as the US economy is expected to rival that of China's growth in 2021 - around a 7% gain in GDP. But don't expect the fall of Ultra Treasury bonds to be a straight line as growing yields means a growing demand for the bonds, pushing the price up and yield lower. Higher longer dated yields will also mean a switch from stocks to bonds challenging the current ATH in the Dow Jones and S&P.
Ultra Bond/Interest rate Intraday OutlookAs the discussions around interest rates continue into the new year we are monitoring the ultra bonds closely. Technical significance developed over the holiday doldrums as anomalous orders printed heavy offers through the 213 handle. Nearly 1,000 contracts printed on the this singular level alone. This gives way to a potential incoming move that defines a new value area. We have sat sideways as we approach contextual fundamental shifts (ie Yellen as TSEC, and Biden as Pres)
Area of interest
214 '03
213
212 '01
UB vs SPYThe US Treasury Bond futures are forming another large wedge. You can see what happened after the last large bond wedge formed and broke its resistance upward. Also notice how the second valley is occurring at a new, long awaited, all time high. The bond wedge in Oct 2019 formed its 2nd trough as the SPY was breaking a long awaited new all time high too.
I am estimating that this scenario plays out again. It took about 2-3 months for the UB to break out of its wedge in Jan 2020. One month later, the SPY sold off . The wedge this time looks to be about 3 times as large which leaves us with the market climbing through the rest of the year with the large sell off coming in the first quarter of 2021.
This is just my opinion, not trading advice.
UltraBond Leading Bond Futures HigherThe UltraBond Future leading the way today in fixed income futures. With equities outperforming over the last few months, its safe to say the bonds have held up pretty well. Now the long end, the Ultra Bond seems poised for a continued ascent bolstered by the 50eMA
POSSIBILITY OF RECOVERY, RANGING, THEN, PULLBACK DOWN - UB1! -30Thank you for your likes and shares! Much appreciated!
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This is not a Squeeze, it is a true market trend. Possibility of seeing the market ranging in the lower area of Andrew's Pitchfork zones which acts all as true resistances.
Beware, possibility of pullback on the actual price. High possibility also of recovery, ranging then pullback on the black dotted line to go down again.
ULTRA T-BOND FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, CBOTTrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 161.625
Stop Loss (SL) : 162.28125
Take Profit (TP) : 160.3125
Description
UDH2019 formed Turtle Soup Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Stop at 0.382 Level (161.625) and place stop after 0.618 level (162.28125). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (160.3125)
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $1,000,000
Risk Management (1%) : $10,000
Position Sizing
$0.03125 = +-$31.25/std-contract
Commission fee = -$1.72/std-contract
EP to SL = $0.65625 = -$656.25
Contract size to open = 15 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $1.3125 = +$1,312.5
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$51.6
Loss = -$9,843.75
Gain = +$19,687.5
Risk/Reward Ratio = 1.98
