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ZC1! trade ideas

Corn ZCN2015 July CBOT - Daily - Time at Mode AnalysisCorn is at a very interesting place here on the chart. You can buy with a 362 1/2 stop and look for a move to 379-380 in the near term. I'm curious to see if the sellers re-emerge since you can see that the last level of oversold reading of 11-day CCI is now breached, that maybe the shorts get squeezed a little. The sellers have been in control for a long time here from the 420 level back in December. Now that we are in May and it is planting season, usually this is when prices can get a little volatile. And by volatile, I just would like to see movement in a trend from here, not just volatility around a range. I decided to put the "TIME AT MODE" graph on the bottom so you can see what the "profile" of the current uptrend is. Why is it an uptrend? Because there hasn't been a new low for 5-days. That's a simple rule I follow. If the market is above the "mode" from the time of the low, then there is an uptrend in place. What you want to see in an uptrend is for the "range to expand" in the direction of the trend. If you get that, it helps you define your trend AND it gives you some levels to ADD TO your position on pullbacks. I'd advise buying against the middle of the range expansion bar in subsequent bars, up to 5 days after the range expansion bar. You can exit that "add" at the high of the expansion bar and risk an equal amount as you are trying to make here. That's all for now. Stay posted! Tim 368'0 last 12:17PM EST May 14, 2015 Thursday
CBOT:ZCN2015Long
by timwest
Corn - Bullish hope is fading. Will the bears rule mkt again?I was bullish biased too. Tried to catch bottom a few times in corn. Sometimes I made small, sometimes I lost small during the last few weeks. I am not bullish any more, not until it is below 390! For you attention, the charts include the second active continous contract on the weekly and in line with that the July contract on the daily. Weekly: - The neutral Ichimoku setup is turning into more bearish biased again: Price below Kumo and Kijun Sen, medium strong Tenkan/Kijun bearish cross is possible. Last hope is horizontal supp/res ard 374! - Heikin Ashi signal is bearish, with one last question mark on haDelta -> is the positive divergence of haDelta/SMA3 about to break? Daily: - Bulls have serious problem: Ichimoku setup is turning into firm bearish again. Price made a lower low, Chikou comes back to open space below price candles, both Tenkan Sen and Senkou A point down. - Heikin Ashi signal is bearish too Honestly, I do not know if we'll see a szrong bearish trend resumption, or if it will be only a bear trap, but now it is not prudent to hold any long position in Corn, and all longs opened lately must have been stopped out by now! As I don' yet see Wheat and Soybeans as bearish as Corn right now, I don't like the idea of going short in Corn. On the other side I'd consider a long only above 390. Maybe better not to touch it at all.
CBOT:ZC2!Short
by Kumowizard
Corn - Bulls need to protect 365-370Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is still neutral, but if Price breaks back below 965 it will turn to bearish - Heikin Ashi signal this week is worrysome, especially that Tenkan/Kijun may cross bearish too - Last support is 365 Daily: - Ichimoku setup is turning more bearish: strong bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross, everything is below the Kumo. - The possible early Heikin Ashi reversal signal at minor trend and horizontal support is the last hope for bulls. No lower low so far compared to low on 19/March. If Price can move higher from here, then Bulls will have some more chance to attack a thin Kumo ard 383 again. However it can turn bullish only above 390. Maybe it is better not to touch it now.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Kumowizard
Corn - Update / Bulls' warm up?Weekly: - Heikin Ashi is firming bullish - Major bullish reversal and acceleration expected above 415 Daily: - It is just about to make a classic bullish Kumo breakout signal! Due to previous range consolidation, Chikou Span can break above past Kumo same time. - haDelta/SMA bullish cross above zero line would give further confirmation - Acceleration in buying expected above 395-400. Appr a week ago a lot of new short positions were established. Those may be squeezed and stopped above 400. Hold longs! And hopefully you will have to hold them for 10-15-20 % profit, if the weekly reversal happens, that will start a nice new bullish trend.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Kumowizard
1
Corn - Bit of confusion, 7 weeks of consolidation,followed by...... the follow through may be more up. Weekly: - 7 weeks of hesitation and consolidation in form of undecided Heikin Ashi candles. - Although it is only Monday, this week Heikin Ashi candle may be a bullish one, as haDelta/SMA3 indication is more bullish as well. The oscillator turned bullish too. - Ichimoku setup is neutral, with some bullish bias: Price enterring Kumo, Chikou is above past candles and points up. Kijun Sen held well and stopped sellers four times! - Upper supp/res is at 418. Above that level Price would make a bullish weekly Kumo breakout, and the space would open for further and decent bullish move. Get ready, as a short squeeze and a strategic reversal may arrive soon. Daily: - Price action is a bit confusinf. A week ago it looked like a valid bearish continuation and a break of a possible minor uptrend line. However in last three days with Wheat being the leader, Corn started a decent correction too. Now the question is what the Price will do at the 389 supp/res horizontal line? It is also a question wether we've seen developing a decreasing wedge? Anyhow, if Price breaks above 390 and holds, that will be really bullish and more short squeeze will follow. - Ichimoku setup is turning back to neutral from the initial bearish. - Heikin Ashi setup is bullish. haDelta/SMA3 further above the zero line, Oscillator turns bullish again. Will it stay like this? p.s.: I got stopped on my initial longs when price broke back below 380. I reopened longs after I saw the possible up-reversal in Heikin Ashi setup two days ago. Watching 390 key level now, ready to increase longs if Price shoots higher.
CBOT:ZCK2015Long
by Kumowizard
1
Corn - Chance for a multi time frame bullish breakWe may have very important and decisive Price action this week in Corn, which in case happens, will be a start of a long term and decent move! Weekly: - Ichimoku setup has turned to neutral since Dec/2014. Chikou is above Price, Price candles are small and are in between Tenkan and Kijun. Price is just below a flat Kumo - Price has been consolidating in a very narrow range, between Tenkan and Kijun for the last 5 weeks. Heikin Ashi candles have small, mixed colour bodies with some upper and lower wicks. haDelta/SMA3 is hesitating around the zero line. - Most importantly look at the major downtrend line! Is the weekly candle about to break a 2,5 years downtrend??? First we need to see a decisive trendline break. Later we can have a Kumo breakout through the ultimate key level of 426, which in case would open space to a decent multi weeks (or multi months) rally in Corn. A close below weekly Kijun Sen would invalidate the long trade idea. Daily: - We have a neutral Ichimoku setup: Price is at Kumo, hesitating ard Tenkan and Kijun Sen. Chikou is also at Price candles. What's more Price is stuck in a triangle. Today or tomorrow it should decide which way to break. The actual Price right now is above the upper tredline, but I like to wait to see a Heikin Ashi candle close as well above the triangle. - Heikin Ashi candles show consolidation, but what makes it rather bullish is today's green candle with haDelta/SMA3 ticking above zero line. It is really time to watch now! Long entries recommended at 395 and/or 400. One more note: what makes me think it is rather possible to see a bullish move than a bearish continuation is that not even the extreme USD strength could put more pressure on Corn prices. I mean this USD bull has a massive headwind bearish effect on commodity prices in general, but as you see Corn seems to be rock solid for the last 5-6 weeks. (meanwhile USD Indx rallied more than 5 % recently)
CBOT:ZC2!Long
by Kumowizard
Corn - Can Bears lose control? - CORRECTIONCorrection - now right panel shows May futures as well. Picture is same, just nominals are higher a bit. * * * Weekly: - Heikin Ashi candle is red and haDelta points down. However so far weekly Kijun Sen provided a good support/resistance. If Kijun holds, then this dip would be only a pull back, possible a second wave of a new bullish setup. If Price breaks below Kijun, then bears can take control again. Looking at Chikou Span being above Price candles, I think a move up from here is a bit more likely, but it is not yet very clear. - Most important key level is 426. A weekly close above opens space for a strategic long term bullish move. Daily: - Price is below the Kumo, but the Ichimoku setup can not be called bearish until Price makes a lower low. There is some chance that we saw only a retest to a possible initial bullish trendline. - Heikin Ashi candle today has a small body, haDelta crossing up above SMA3 again. Also Chikou Span found support at the past Kumo's top. This means selling pressure is slowing down. I think we may try some bottom fishing here, and open some longs, with stop below 379. Do it only with 0,5 trade unit. For a better risk-reward Price should first print a green candle and then break above daily Kumo top at 400. A bullish Chikou Span cross would validate the long trade setup and idea.
CBOT:ZCK2015
by Kumowizard
Corn - Can Bears lose control? Weekly: - Heikin Ashi candle is red and haDelta points down. However so far weekly Kijun Sen provided a good support/resistance. If Kijun holds, then this dip would be only a pull back, possible a second wave of a new bullish setup. If Price breaks below Kijun, then bears can take control again. Looking at Chikou Span being above Price candles, I think a move up from here is a bit more likely, but it is not yet very clear. - Most important key level is 426. A weekly close above opens space for a strategic long term bullish move. Daily: - Price is below the Kumo, but the Ichimoku setup can not be called bearish until Price makes a lower low. There is some chance that we saw only a retest to a possible initial bullish trendline. - Heikin Ashi candle today has a small body, haDelta crossing up above SMA3 again. Also Chikou Span found support at the past Kumo's top. This means selling pressure is slowing down. I think we may try some bottom fishing here, and open some longs, with stop below 369. Do it only with 0,5 trade unit. For a better risk-reward Price should first print a green candle and then break above daily Kumo top at 390. A bullish Chikou Span cross would validate the long trade setup and idea.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Kumowizard
2
Corn - Consolidation, mixed picture, way is more likely upWeekly: - Tenkan/Kijun is in weak bullish cross - Chikou Span likely makes a weak bullish cross too above Price candles. - weekly HA candle is small body with lower and higher wicks, haDelta crossing back above SMA3 - last two weekly candles touched Kijun Sen, which prove to be good support Most likely the pull back wave is over with this week's candle. It means after a Kijun Sen retest Price is ready to go higher from here. Watch 414-416 level, as a weekly break above the horizontal supp/res and the Kumo will open space for a longer term bullish move. Daily: - Price attempted a bearish Kumo break, but in fact the Kumo blocked the move. 366 proved to be a good support for Corn. Now Price is back to the Kumo, trades between Tenkan and Kijun. We can say this is still a consolidation with Price trading at short term equilibrium. - HA candles are green with haDelta and its SMA3 well above zero line. Oscillator is bullish. - If Price breaks above Kijun Sen and later above the Kumo too, that will open space ahead of a stronger bullish move. 415 is a key level on the daily chart too. Strategy is: buy on dips until Price holds above 366, the way is more likely up.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Kumowizard