ZL1! trade ideas
Soybean Oil Christmas CorrectionAs the year closes, Soybean Oil is indicating a correction is due.
Next year we will know if its a reversal or not but for now I'm shorting it here with a SL of $39.50 and I'm aiming for $34.00 as a target.
I'm returning next year to drop more gems for my loyal followers.
Soybeal Oil Trade
I'm short at 38.56
SL 39.50
TP 34.00
Have a great and safe holidays.
SOYABEANOIL-Seems like trend may reverse soon to south 26$Market Commentary:
LEARNING ELLIOTT WAVES IS LITTLE BIT TOUGH (FOR ME IN BEGINNING) BUT I TOOK IT AS A CHALLENGE AND THAT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALSO...
First have an look for the positional trend i shared here previous....if you are a follower of me...and sometimes i will share the counter trend trade also in 15 mins and 1hr...but that is risky ones...so if the trend is bearish or bullish, if i am expecting the correction...book the profit there and wait the correction to end and again go with the trend....DONT TRADE THE COUNTER TRADE SETUP...you will took loss too...try to identify the short term pull back and the long term pull back after that took small lots in the short term PB with strict stop and go with big lots in the trend side that is long term. I WONT TOOK ALL THE TRADE PLAN SHARED HERE...
Read the market commentary inside the chart what i shared here carefully and try to learn Elliott waves...otherwise its tough to understand the market commentary and my analysis. I wont give a entry, stop loss and take profit in my chart...it is only for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE and i am sharing how i am analyzing the pair and labeling them according to the Elliott wave theory...I AM JUST SHOWING THE TREND HOW IT MAY GO AND MY VIEW(it may wrong too)..so DON'T FOLLOW BLINDLY MY CHART..take this as a reference and if it correlate to you strategy took the trade as per your strategy...DON'T ASK ABOUT YOUR RUNNING TRADES i wont comment on them and I WONT SUGGEST TO TAKE MY TRADE SETUP.
I am a technical analyst based on trendline, channel, fib retracements, expansion, stochastic for divergence, EMA's and MA's are finding the pull backs and MAJOR IS ELLIOTT WAVES...those mentioned above are using as a TOOLS only. I am not a fundamental, sentimental trader...but only the fundamental will boost my technical analysis to reach my target or sometimes it will go against me and then i will manage the trade according to the Elliott waves alternate views...Each and every trade plan i am sharing here has a alternate view and i am sharing only the most probabilities(70-80%) here...sometimes the other (20-30%) may market do..then i will change the wave counts and labeling according to the price action.
All labeling and wave counts done by me by manually and i will keep change according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So dont bias, hope on my trade plans...try to learn and make your own strategy...Following is not that much easy...I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSSES IF U TOOK THE TRADE ACCORDING TO MY TRADE PLANS....THANKS LOT..CHEERS
If you wanted to take profit this is a good as it getsFundamentally Veg Oils are behaving like 2010/2011, I am expecting a correction here this week due to a few factors, Short Trading Week, Long Week, Month end, PalmOil Stalling last week, much like Nov 2010.
If one wanted to take profits this is a good time, I am firm believer we keep rallying through Dec Jan Feb maybe Mar.
we are at Resistance now in the 38's Next resistance is 44's, we could also go ridiculous in the 60's if PalmOil stocks keep shrinking fast, WTI trending up would confirm possibility to go in the 60's.
Lots and Lots of Fresh Air above $36VegOil Complex is Fundamentally as Bullish as the 2010/2011 Period.
-Fiscal Stimulus/Money Flow into Commodities
-Stocks of all Veg Oil are at 3-5y lows
-Consumption and Export Demand very strong
-The only thing that could ruin this party IMO is if the ratio of Covid Deaths/Cases start to creep up, that would be very worrisome.
Over Extension on Soybean OilExecutive Summary
RSI Overbought - Last time the RSI sat above 70 on the weekly was first week October 2011 through early November, where the price tried multiple times for +$60 and some change. Failed to $47, looking for the same sort of retracement. Negative Divergence.
Volume - High new volume this past week. My thoughts are sellers taking their profit alongside with RSI.
Outside Upper Keltner Channel - Riding outside Keltner channel as well as 2SD of price. A retracement is coming.
Description
My thought is that we are overextended here. Yes we have gone parabolic, but Last time RSI surpassed 70 on the weekly, let alone the daily, was October 2011. We saw a $20 drop from 60 to about 40 and there has been a continuous bear before then. Price is going to regress to the mean looking at the keltner channel and how we are outside 2 SD of price.
The more fascinating piece is the new onset volume we are seeing. This came about last week - and will be interesting to see how traders are headed this route.
(Hypothetical) Fundamental Thoughts
The USA is the top Exporter in Soybean and Soybean oil, especially as alternatives to protein intake - outside of typical animal produce - may become more popular. Hurricanes have left these states mainly unaffected.
Short payout is 2:1 reward/risk
Soybean Oil Futures 28/9 - 2/10My view on the upcoming week trading idea.
1. On Daily chart, we can see that price have already move from the highest price to lowest at around 300 ticks of movement where we can label and classify the movement as the first wave of movement. The move is very strong as I see that had end the long bullish movement before this, this, supported with the break of the bullish uptrend trendline.
2. Price is making a pullback to a resistance and fibonacci level where price may continue to dive down to a new level of low. Price action on those key level is essential before we make any trading decision. I see that we can collect few ticks for a buy before placing a position of short to enjoy the third wave of price movement.
100vs32 SOYBEAN OILAs far as i can see, what i can conclude...
1. The bullish harmonic pattern appears gives the price a probability to reverse.
2. The blue line is my entry point.
3. The red line for my stop loss decision (32pts)
4. TP for 100pts.
Well back to your trading plan guys, this is not a buy call. It's just to share what i saw.
You've got any thoughts to share ? Drop it below !!
Trade at your own risk. All the best traders !
ZSN21-ZSK21The second good looking bear spread in soybeans complex. If you consider to trade both, i would either recomend to allocate your position between both 2 or just trade 1 on them. They tend to behave similliar, so it is not wise to trade correlated assets and manage them as 2 standalone trades.
This soybeans oil spread is much less risky. Historical lowest prices were arround -0,2 which is about 150$ from current prices. That could be manage as position trade and do not put SL in to the market. But i strongly recommend everytone use SL. RRR is again over 2,2:1, which give us more chances to stay profitable even if my probability is below 50%. Since you follow all my trades, the probability is between 60-70%, but stay focused and trade on your own risk.
This trade seems good even for people with smaller account.
In the graph you can see marked SL below the recent low. It is a logical place where to put SL, if you do so.
Good luck to everyone
