Buy Signal on 10 Years T-NoteCheck out the exciting buying opportunity on the 10 Years T-Note, currently trading at 112.00. Technical analysis indicates a potential upward trend, leveraging the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages for 161 and 200 periods as key tools.
Trade Points:
Entry Point: 112.00
Stop Loss: 111.50
Profit Target: 113.50
Current market analysis shows good stability, reinforcing the chances of success for this trade. Stay tuned for more insights and investment ideas!
ZN1! trade ideas
Armageddon after the election, huh?Someone yesterday dumped a lot of money into an options portfolio, that's designed to lower the price of December US10-year Bond futures. That automatically means more US 10Y yield, and since there's a strong correlation with the Dollar, it also means the Dollar is going up.
The most curious thing is watching how the S&P 500 makes ATH during rising Dollar.
Such synchronicity has historically led to powerful corrections, and something tells me that it will not be the Dollar.
Now, I ain't saying we should all go out and start selling stocks like never before. But what I am sayin' is that maybe, just maybe, we should take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Maybe the market's got some more room to run, and maybe we should be lookin' for opportunities to get in on the action.
So, yeah, the option sentiment's looking a little bearish, but that don't mean we should all be running for the hills just yet.
Let's keep our cool, do our research, and see what the market's got in store for us.
Buying idea ZN1! with stop at 114.05US 10 year futures looking to make another move after brief pull back. given the positive FED signals and overall market sentiment this can turn and start moving up again.
DISCLAIMER : The content and materials featured are for your information and education only and are not attended to address your particular personal requirements. The information does not constitute financial advice or recommendation and should not be considered as such.
Intraday Elliott Wave Suggests Ten Year Notes (ZN) Entering InflShort Term Elliott Wave view on Ten Year Notes (ZN) suggests that cycle from 8.9.2024 low is about to complete as 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.9.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 114’02 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 112’25. The Notes then extended higher in wave ((iii)) with internal subdivision as another 5 waves. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 114’01 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 113’05. The Notes extended higher in wave (iii). Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 113’3 and dips in wave ii ended at 113’06.
The Notes extended higher in wave iii towards 115 and pullback in wave iv ended at 114’1. Final leg wave v ended at 115’1 which completed wave (iii) in higher degree. Dips in wave (iv) ended at 114’16 and wave (v) higher ended at 115’13 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) also has ended at 114’2 and the Notes has turned higher. Up from wave ((iv)), wave (i) ended at 115’04. Expect wave (ii) pullback to stay above 114’2, and more importantly above 112’25 for further upside. As far as pivot at 112’25 low is intact, we can still see a bit more upside in the 10 Year Notes before it completes 5 waves rally from 8.9.2024. The cycle however is mature and we can expect an end and a bigger pullback soon.
Advances Camarilla Concepts (2)Advanced Camarilla Concepts: Mastering Two-Period Relationships
In the sophisticated realm of Camarilla pivot trading, understanding two-period relationships is crucial for discerning the market's directional bias and anticipating movements in upcoming sessions. This analytical approach focuses on the third layer (S3 and R3) of the Camarilla pivots, similar to Pivot Width Analysis, but delves deeper into nuanced market signals across seven distinct types of relationships.
Exploring the Seven Two-Period Relationships
Higher Value (Bullish Signal): This occurs when the current period’s S3 is above the previous period’s R3, suggesting a robust bullish outlook. This scenario is a strong buy signal on pullbacks to the current period's S3. Key to this analysis is:
Acceptance: Price opens above S3 and pulls back to it, affirming bullish continuation.
Rejection: Price opens below S3, turning it into resistance, with potential declines anticipated.
Lower Value (Bearish Signal): Defined by the current period's R3 being below the previous period's S3, indicating bearish conditions. This setup suggests selling on rallies to R3. Observations include:
Acceptance: Price opens below R3 and ascends to it, confirming the bearish trend.
Rejection: Price opens above R3, using it as support, which may signal rising prices.
Overlapping Higher Value: A modestly bullish sign indicating a possible slowdown in the uptrend, suggesting that the market might enter a distribution phase leading to range-bound conditions. Both acceptance and rejection criteria apply, similar to the 'Higher Value' scenario.
Overlapping Lower Value: A slightly bearish signal hinting at a weakening downtrend, potentially leading to accumulation and subsequent range-bound activity. Like its bullish counterpart, acceptance and rejection are key to understanding this signal.
Unchanged Value: Represents neutrality, where the current period's S3 and R3 align exactly with the previous period's levels. Markets may be in a phase of accumulation or distribution, and traders should watch for breakout signals closely.
Outside Value: Another neutral indicator where the current period’s S3 and R3 completely encompass the previous period’s levels, suggesting a quiet, range-bound market environment.
Inside Value: Indicates that a breakout is imminent, as the current period’s S3 and R3 are entirely contained within the previous period’s levels. This scenario offers opportunities for low-risk and high-reward trades.
Strategic Implications and Trading Strategy
Utilizing these two-period Camarilla relationships equips traders with a refined lens for market analysis, enabling them to tailor their strategies to the evolving market context. Whether it's leveraging bullish signals for robust buying opportunities or identifying bearish setups for timely exits, understanding these nuanced relationships enhances strategic execution.
By integrating these advanced Camarilla concepts into your trading toolbox, you can significantly enhance your ability to navigate through volatile markets with precision and confidence.
Stay tuned for further insights as we continue to explore the depths of Camarilla pivot trading and its application in real-world scenarios. This exploration not only broadens your understanding but also sharpens your trading skills in anticipating and reacting to market dynamics.
Advanced Camarilla Concepts (1)Exploring Advanced Camarilla Concepts: The Strategic Role of Pivot Width
In the realm of technical analysis, understanding the nuances of pivot points, particularly within the Camarilla framework, can significantly enhance a trader's ability to forecast and capitalize on market movements. A key aspect often overlooked is the analysis of pivot width, especially the width between the third layers, S3 and R3, which offers crucial insights into impending market dynamics.
Pivot Width Analysis: Decoding Market Behavior
Pivot width, the distance between significant Camarilla support (S3) and resistance (R3) levels, is a powerful indicator of potential market behavior. The interpretation of pivot width can be categorized into two distinct scenarios:
Abnormally Wide Pivot Widths: When the distance between S3 and R3 is unusually large, it often indicates that the market might enter a period of trading range activity. In such scenarios, the market is less likely to exhibit strong directional momentum, and instead, traders might experience extended periods of consolidation. This setup requires strategies that capitalize on range-bound trading techniques, where buying at support and selling at resistance can be particularly effective.
Abnormally Narrow Pivot Widths: Conversely, a tighter than usual gap between these pivot points typically signals the potential for breakout and trending activities. Narrow pivot widths suggest that the market is coiling, much like a spring, ready to release significant energy that could lead to strong directional moves. Traders should prepare for breakout strategies during these conditions, anticipating substantial moves away from the pivot line once a breakout occurs.
Strategic Application in Trading
Understanding and applying pivot width analysis within the Camarilla framework allows traders to adapt their strategies based on anticipated market conditions. By aligning trading approaches with pivot width signals, traders can enhance their tactical execution and improve the probability of success in varying market environments.
For Wide Pivots: Implement range-bound strategies, focusing on capturing the oscillations between the defined support and resistance levels.
For Narrow Pivots: Prepare for potential breakouts by setting entry points near the anticipated breakout levels, with appropriate stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively.
Conclusion: Enhancing Trading Acumen with Pivot Width Analysis
The study of pivot width in the context of Camarilla pivots offers a sophisticated tool for traders aiming to refine their market analysis and execution strategies. By paying close attention to these details, traders can better prepare for the market's next moves, whether they point to a continuation of the range or the start of a new trend.
Stay tuned for further insights into the application of Camarilla pivots in trading, as we continue to explore deeper layers of this powerful analytical tool. This exploration not only enriches your trading toolkit but also enhances your ability to navigate through complex market landscapes.
10 Year T-Note Has Begun Minuette Wave 3After a double zigzag decline, t-note futures have begun wave 3 up. We should be approaching a small consolidation for micro wave 4, but after that, we should begin micro wave 5 up.
Prices have bounced off of Ichimoku's Leading Span B, as shown:
So this this may be a future area of support.
We also have some fundamental optimism as speculators' expectations for a September rate cut increase.
10 Year T-Note Ending Subminuette Wave CIt appears that t-note futures should be about done with their decline. We might see a jump higher on Sunday night at the open or we could continue to see a slight decline to the 79% Fibonacci retracement level. Either way, all of the requirements have been met for wave 2 down, so we should see a turnaround in price at any moment.
10 Year T-Note Beginning Minuette Wave 5It appears that t-notes are beginning to exit the triangle formed over the last few days. This next push up will be minuette wave 5 of minute wave 3.
A reasonable target for this push up is approximately 112'00'0, but the ultimate confirmation will be when we can count five waves up, regardless of the price reached.
This count will be invalidated if prices move below 110'11'5.
Another bullish sign is that prices are above Ichimoku Cloud on the 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, and 1d charts.
10yr at key resistance The 10yr notes, or "ZN's" are nearing some key key resistance. The 50dma and 200dma (orange/red) moving averages have been intertwined for most of 2024 as price action has consolidated in this tight triangle for months. Considering we are at the top of the triangle and also at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024 range (and coming off a solid 20yr auction just moments ago at the time of writing) we feel it is important to identify the 111'00' level as being very strong resistance. If broken, we could see yields in the US slump and this could have some big repercussions for other markets around the world. Keep an eye on the 10yr notes!
Elliott Wave Intraday View on Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) Looking for Short Term Elliott Wave in Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests that the notes has almost reached the extreme area from 4.25.2024 low. This suggests that the Notes may soon see a 3 waves pullback at least. Up from 4.25.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 109’31. Wave (2) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 108’3 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 109’1. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 108’16 which completed wave W in higher degree. Bounce in wave X has ended at 108’20 and the bond turned lower.
Down from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 108’02 and wave ((b)) ended at 108’06. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 107’21 which completed wave Y of (2) in higher degree. The Notes has turned higher in wave (3). Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 109 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 108’25. The Notes then extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 110 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 109’26. Final leg wave ((v)) is expected to end soon which should complete wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 5.30.2024 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 107’21 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
