10 Year T-Note Finishing Subminuette Wave BIt appears that T-Note futures may be forming a zigzag for wave 2. If so, we should see one more push down before the next climb. Potential support lies between the 50% and 62% Fibonacci retracement levels.
ZN1! trade ideas
10yr at key resistance The 10yr notes, or "ZN's" are nearing some key key resistance. The 50dma and 200dma (orange/red) moving averages have been intertwined for most of 2024 as price action has consolidated in this tight triangle for months. Considering we are at the top of the triangle and also at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024 range (and coming off a solid 20yr auction just moments ago at the time of writing) we feel it is important to identify the 111'00' level as being very strong resistance. If broken, we could see yields in the US slump and this could have some big repercussions for other markets around the world. Keep an eye on the 10yr notes!
10 Year T-Note Ready for Subminuette Correction
T-Note futures should begin a small decline next week. As wave 2 of 3, a reasonable target for this correction is the 50% or 62% Fibonacci level.
10 Year T-Note Finishing Subminuette Wave 5
There is a clear count of five waves up so we should begin to see a small retracement at any time. Because the retracement will be wave 2 of 3, prices should return to at least the 50% Fibonacci level.
10 Year T-Note Beginning Wave C of 2, Ichimoku & HA BearishT-note futures should continue to decline approximately to the 108'26'0 (0.618) or 108'10'0 (0.786) level. Ichimoku Cloud and the Heiken Ashi candlesticks remain bearish on the 5m, 15m, and 1h charts.
Elliott Wave Intraday View on Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) Looking for Short Term Elliott Wave in Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests that the notes has almost reached the extreme area from 4.25.2024 low. This suggests that the Notes may soon see a 3 waves pullback at least. Up from 4.25.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 109’31. Wave (2) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 108’3 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 109’1. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 108’16 which completed wave W in higher degree. Bounce in wave X has ended at 108’20 and the bond turned lower.
Down from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 108’02 and wave ((b)) ended at 108’06. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 107’21 which completed wave Y of (2) in higher degree. The Notes has turned higher in wave (3). Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 109 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 108’25. The Notes then extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 110 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 109’26. Final leg wave ((v)) is expected to end soon which should complete wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 5.30.2024 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 107’21 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
10yr at important pivot Intraday Update: Major important support today on the 10yr at 109'09' which cause the squeeze (above) earlier this week post CPI. Traders will be laser focused on a close above/below here this week.
Fantastic Signal to buy 10-Year T-Note FuturesHello,
We have identified a fantastic current opportunity to buy 10-Year T-Note Futures with a high probability and a favorable risk-reward ratio of over 3 on the 4-hour chart.
Our target is set at $110'19'0 within a few days (swing trade).
Ibrouri
long ZNwas waiting for the 108 area but entered long today at 109'20
will add if we see 108 area this is a swing long for the end of year
US treausires are showing bullish patternTreasuries are trying to recover after making some nice and deep pullback in last few months as FED decided to wait on more economic data before they may finally cut rates. The pattern on 10 year US notes is looking bullish here after that impulse up since Novemeber, seen as wave (A), so obviously this tells us in which direction market can move after a retracement. Probably up! Well, this retracement in three waves is already visible on the charts below, so speculators can be positioned for more upside into wave (C) in months ahead, especially if FED is really going to cut rates this year, and if maybe NFP data finally disappoints this Friday. In such case, I think metals can explode, while the dollar sells off. Speculation for BOJ rate change in March and possibly"hawkish" ECB tomorrow (compared to FED) can help the dollar to be sold IMO. The only concern is risk-off, but bearish dollar/ bullish stocks correlation hasn't been there for a while anyway.
Hope you love the analysis.
GH
ZN long: Expecting 10Y bond yields to crashI am now expecting that the 10Y yield to crash and thus the trade here will be to long ZN futures. Please note that what this implies is that rates are coming down and there will be a rotation from equities to fix income and that means equity markets WILL CRASH sooner rather than later.
The most important chart ahead of tomorrow Tomorrow we will have a lot of information and data given to the market. Everything from the QRA (quarterly refunding announcement) from the Treasury to know what the allocation (or mix) of supply will be for the market between bills/notes/bonds. Then we will have private jobs data from the ADP. Following that we will have the ECI (employment Cost Index), then a few hours later we will hear from the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell and the FOMC.
In the meantime, the 10yr notes market looks poised to rally in a "bull flag pattern" setup which does suggest a continuation of note market strength and ultimately US Dollar weakness. However, a break of the 38% retracement at 110'09' would suggest otherwise and in that case we could see the US Dollar really take off to the upside as the bond market nullifies the pattern and looks to correct further below 109'00.
10Y Treasury Bond Is Looking For A Bigger RecoveryTreasury bond - 10Y US Notes came down a lot in the last two years but this cycle can now come to an end as we can see five waves down into 2023 lows ona weekly time frame. In fact, we also see five subwaves completed within wave (5) on a daily chart after prices recovered and break above the trendline resistance. The move is strong, thus we think that more upside can be coming within a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) rally, where first leg (A) can be still in progress or maybe already completed as an impulse. Support on subwave 4 or wave (B) dips are at 110-111.
ZNCurrently ZN futures are in the buy zone, but if the red average indicated by the blue arrow is broken and we enter the green zone, the market will be in the sell phase.
ZN1! / $TLT Short Idea UpdateUpdating Jan 2 post after jobless claims
Surprised we saw such a big move after claims
Highlights extreme market positioning for cuts this year
Higher crude supports higher rates move. position hedges middle east volatility
NFP tmrw is wildcard
Remember NFP is wildly volatile
Prefer buying Feb puts as defined risk trade
ZN currently at technical support and rates at big 4% resistance
Look to fade bounce
5ema serving as resistance on various time frames
10 year t-note, ZN IN 30 MINHello to all tradingview investors, according to my previous analysis I see a great opportunity with good probability, the details are reflected in the chart, greetings and good luck to all.
US 10yr Trend ReversalZN1! Upward Trend Tested
Price action breaks trendline, fails to recapture, and settles at support ~112'05
111 next key level
Higher oil supports move lower/higher yields
Long Feb Expiration Puts define risk thru various economic events (NFP, CPI, Fed)
OPTION SENTIMENTYesterday, a 10-year bond portfolio was created in the market. The goal is to maximize profit when the price is between $109 and $110 by the expiration date of January 17, 2024. This one requires careful observation.
Bond Bears Beware (3+1 reasons)This is a brief video sharing my thoughts why I think T-Notes have bottomed out.
It is not a full, detailed analysis, but rather a quick video sharing thoughts on 3 + 1 patterns.
Two of these patterns are on the MACD-v , one seasonal and as a "bonus" the historical reaction to changes of Fed Policy.
forecasting t-note ZN in 15 min Hello to all tradingview investors, according to my previous analysis, I see a great sales opportunity with good probability, the details are reflected in the graph, greetings and good luck to all
