ZS1! trade ideas
Week 20: ZSN2021 Sign of weakness and opportunity to shortThis morning during Asian market, volatility was low and structure wise, it is trending down to break the $15.82 support level.
I am on bearish bias and will place a spot short order:
Entry: $15.82
Stop Loss at $16.13
Take Profit at $15.08
RRR = 2.39R
It may not be a short drop, protect your profit when you are already in profit zone.
I will update again tomorrow if there is a change in outlook.
Soybean SHORTI have been waiting for the support to be broken. As you can see the 1H TRENDLINE will hopefully be in play when we retrace to the support that will now be resistance, I will be selling from there. (Look at my analysis for SL's and TP'S)
Looking at previous breakouts and resulting percentage gainsand coming up with conservative and aggressive price targets. Currently in long trade, considering when to take profits. I may close at the conservative or the agressive target depending on how aggressively the price action continues going up.
Soybean net non-commercial longs trending up, PT: 2000'As indicated by data from Commitments of Traders reporting, the net non-commercial long commitments are trending up and appear to have put in a new low at the trendline. This same scenario occurred in October of 2007 when soybeans were rallying toward the 15-year high, except now they're rallying towards the all-time high. The price increase that took place following the manifestation of this situation in 2007 would suggest that $20 per bushel or higher soybean prices in the foreseeable future are a very real possibility.
$ZS_F Soybean futures monthly RSI above 70.....Soybean futures monthly RSI is above 70 for only the 5th time in the last 33 years.
This is just the beginningCommodity prices are still going, several commodities have gone past all time highs, such as Palladium, Lumber, Steel...
And grains are also going up very strongly, Corn hit an 8 year high after 6 years of price stability, and they're all not far from ATH.
Corn imports have fallen as buyers are put off by the high prices (they are going against the trend, what if it never goes back down?).
Soybean demand should continue to increase, it is in high demand for the green transition (as a meat replacement, fuel additive or replacement, lubricant, etc).
And based on past years it seems farmers do not sell before summer (they plant in April-May).
This is now the 12th month in a row food prices have been going up.
History will show this was more than just some short term fluctuation or some economic recovery.
If we look at the past 10 years we might expect that soybean volatility is set to soar, every year as farmers plant their crops volatility increases by about 50%.
It fits with what you would expect after a range breakout, a trend that gets stronger and stronger ending parabolic (and bears screaming "this is ridiculous"), followed by a significant correction.
Corn has been the big runner and I think I will avoid it now, but wheat is interesting, after a long period of being choppy and lagging behind other grains, it has gone vertical finally!
If this keeps going I will look to go long wheat on a pullback.
Resistance (ATH) is far away:
The price stopped at the $15 psychological level, gathered reinforcements, and then continued up.
In many ways the situation is similar to 2007, but much crazier, with Rudolf Havenstein running the central bank.
We have seen this several times in the last year: After hesitating a bit around resistance, the price makes a new high giving confirmation to sidelines traders.
No reason to think this time is different, and as more people notice the trend it can be expected to get stronger.
We can look at previous vertical price rallies, and expect it to go at least to $18. It does not make sense to me that the rally would stop now.
It would be like a big truck running at full speed instantly stopping for no reason.
On the weekly chart clearly it does not have that much distance left to get to all time high, it's not far fetched at all, especially with all the other commodities that went well beyond ATH.
The trick is getting in on H4 to grab a fantastic risk to reward.
The main difficulty with these crazy vertical price moves is you can never enter and once you get in it reverse.
But with Soybeans... It is granting perfect pullbacks and breakouts, at least it has for the past 9 months.
And cherry on the cake, it could just fly past ATH, again. Who knows how far it can go? If this was the winter low volatility, what could the year peak volatility be? Up 25% in a week? Hey it's even possible it ends up in the news and retail goes insane and starts a bubble with dumb money arguments "new paradigm", "market of 7 billion eaters with the green transition", "we are very early" and so on.
The past centuries were full of all sorts of commodity bubbles, tulips that's the one everyone knows about, rabbits, silk, and others ones no one knows about but still have a few traces left in old books.
Week 19: ZSN2021 No Sellers in the market This week onwards we are using ZSN2021 chart.
In H4 charts we can see the rejection candle at $16.00 however there is no seller yet.
Prices are ranging in a tight range and the only sign for bearish if the price is closed at or below $15.60
For the time being, not much movement on Monday. We shall see the candle movement in the next few hours.
Coffee, Tea or me?Pictures show how the big inflation era really make the charts go,
As shown for Soybean, wheat and Coffee,
PPl should listen to FED closely bout how they gonna act,
3AM for the party,stay tuned
call a cab before drunk.
Don't Mind Me, I'm Just Confirming My Soyboy BiasThis recent breakout in soy has similarities to previous moves which have gained a lot more than this one currently has in terms of percentage gain and cents/bushel gain. These differences are noted on the top price chart.
Indicator Similarities:
Volume increasing after making a new high
Stochastic shooting up from below 50 without pause into overbought territory
Directional Movement Index achieving a large spread between +DM and -DM
The bottom indicator is a custom pine script indicator that shows the ADX (white), ADXR (blue), and the spread of the +DM and -DM in histogram format. The price chart colorization is based on this spread being above (green), inside (yellow), or below (red) the gray box which is a zone that makes sense from a historical-performance standpoint. One concern I have is that the ADXR level is low and ideally it would be above 20 which is the dotted line. The good news is that it is quickly rising and the first breakout from last August which is the most important one started with a similar setup.
Sell Soybean futufes (JUL 2021)Sell from 1547 and 1568, stop 1635.25, target 794
Transfer of sales from the previous contract (MAY 2021)
ZS Daily projectionIn all likelihood, ZS will close down at end of the day. ZS failed to hold resistance at 1574-1563 on the retest. It will find sellers to test the LWO and close once again. If it fails, a resurgence is likely around the congestion zone of 1538-1515. We will most likely follow the gap fillers at the market open and wait for the test of LWO to take profit and reassess accordingly.
LDO= Last Day Open,
LDC= Last Day Close
LDH= Last Day High
LDL= Last Day Low
Week 18: ZSK2021 Consolidation .. wait for a break The big drop last week was not sustainable; it was a big seller momentum but the price did not manage to breakthrough $15.20 level; it failed twice (double bottom).
Therefore, currently the price is in range $15.20 to $16.00.
On the side note, in H4 (as I write this), the current 3 candles are pushing higher with a small gap in between; it shows the Buyers are back in the game and pushing hard.
The question is whether this push will break $16.00 to create a Higher High, we shall see.
Measured move could bring us up to 1800' this yearThe chart shows a potential measured move up to 1800 based on the idea that the current price action is comparable to the price action in 2007 and 2008.
Week 17: ZSK2021 No point of return sighted (yet)Last week right after the Asian market open, the weekend gap was filled, our $1440 Decision Point level was breached and it went up to the moon.
There were no sign of weaknesses yet, bullish momentum was strong on each upward push.
Today the market was opened with a gap up again and as I am writing this, there is no sign of reversal yet; therefore we stay put and see the price action in the next few candles.
My new pivot line is at $1536.
Let me know if you have other views or comments.
Week 16: ZSK2021 Decision Point at $1440Our target last week is now triggered, it is a good selling zone with favorable risk reward ratio.
Where is my Take Profit? I will set at $13.91 level.
In overall picture, the price is ranging in a wider bandwidth from 11 February till today.
I will update again from time to time.
bean predictions beans are going through a special time as this time period is really in the air. For example rains in the midwest have been good and planting has been good for most illinois and eastern iowa. However contract months like September are very very interesting as the USA is slowly losing many of its soybean stocks and we will be eating into carryover soon if not already. If this summer year is dry I believe beans go past the teens. China is one of our biggest enemies as flash sales and maybe even importation of beans is what the USA will have to do if the buying doesn't stop. I'm staying long with many 1400 sep calls but im also synthetically short futures
Week 15: ZSK2021 Consolidation in a Bullish Flag Technically it is forming a bullish flag.
I would place my Buy Limit at Demand area, which is at $13.70 level.
Also, I have a pivot marking at $14.05 --> it serves two purposes:
(1) if my Buy Limit is triggered, $14.05 is my Take Profit level.
(2) if the price does not go any lower and crossing $14.05, it is likely to continue to be bullish.
Overall this week is rather bullish.
