WHEAT bullish until the end of the yearhello traders and investors,
As you see on weekly chart, ZW had grew up rapidly when it broke the triangle up, now we are near its highest level (930) on wich zw will probably reverse down almost on the start of 2022 (jan or feb). this down trend can go untl 710$
Pay attention and keep your sens of rationality.
As i always said: i don't have cristal ball predicting markets future, but i try to be more efficient and rational in my trading.
Thank you and good luck
ZW1! trade ideas
wheat will have to enter it's cyclewheat has a 6month cycle, between northern and southern emisphere crop, looks like it will begin a supercycle, like all commodities.
by a thecnical point of view, it's forming a H&S. wheat is a quite "dangerous" commodity to trade so i don't think it's a good idea entering before the pattern ends it's forming and starts going down from that neckline, multiple false breakouts are to expect once the price is bellow the neckline. i don't think it's a coincidence that the natural target of the pattern coincides with a round number (600), witch has been a strong resistance and support in the past.
short wheat - failed breakout, & confirmation of existing wedge saw wheat form a wedge which saw an upside move higher. The price break did not hold and it fell back into the existing wedge within a week. It broke down through the lower bound of that wedge today which confirms a move to the early formation of the wedge. A potential extension forms when that wedge may confirm a larger double top. GLTA
Wheat Ichimoku Analysis for November 2021Wheat is in a long-term uptrend according to Ichimoku on the daily and weekly timeframe. However, in the short/medium term the price action is forming an N wave with time cycles of approx. 77 days between major highs and 45 days between major lows.
We are currently seeing some resistance and retracement around the 800 level. I would theorise the N wave will move the price downwards to the next forecast low (11 November). We can then expect the long-term trend to resume, hitting the next high around 1 December (forecast dates are +/- 1-2 days).
This week I would currently look for a short opportunity on each retracement as wheat continues to move lower. However, due to the long-term uptrend, I will only short where there is a strong risk/reward, as ultimately I will be looking for a long position in November.
Wheat Futures Attempted a Breakout Last Week.Long term trend still intact. Trend continuation expected.
I've been expecting a breakout from this wedge pattern for a couple weeks. Last week, the breakout did happen, but price returned to close the week back inside the wedge. I still hold that the technical pattern is extremely bullish. Fundamentals for wheat are also bullish with rising fertilizer and energy costs.
One way to gain exposure to wheat futures is through the Teucrium Wheat Fund, ticker WEAT. This fund is not suitable for intraday or even shorter term swing trading due to low liquidity and large spreads. Over the long term however, the fund tracks the wheat market very well.
Idea on US Wheat: Head & Shoulders pattern- Strong support at $6.80/bu with strong rejection candlesticks (hammer)
- Bullish engulfing on this support
- Rebound on the 150 Exponential Moving Average
- Broke up the 100 Exponential Moving Average
- Rebound on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
- Hidden bullish divergence on Relative Strenght Index ( RSI )
- Head & Shoulders pattern
Fundamental news:
- Cut of worldwide wheat production
- Oversold position before monthly USDA report
Objectives:
Wheat could goes up to the $7.22/bu level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level) and then goes down and confirm the Head & Shoulders pattern. The theoretical objective is $5.80/bu (support). Before this level, there is a strong support at $6.20/bu. WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THIS IDEA?
Feel free to share, comment and give your opinion if it is constructive ;)
DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice
BEARISH ON US WHEAT DEC21Bearish clues:
- The general trend has been downward since mid of August 2021
- Wheat has formed a Head & Shoulders pattern (with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as the neckline). This neckline was broken down yesterday with a large amount of volume
- The right shoulder formed a double top
- The volume indicates that sellers took the advantage: when the price dropped, the volume increased / when the price went up (formation of the right shoulder), the volume decreased
- The price of wheat has broken the 100 exponential moving average
Fundamental news:
- Take profit by investors after last week's rise
- Hurricane Ida caused the closure of several ports on the Atlantic coast, through which soybeans and corn are exported. Wheat has been dragged into the downward spiral of these commodities
- StatCan released low Canadian wheat production numbers (- 34.8% compared to last year) but higher than expected
- Spring wheat harvest is progressing is the United States of America (88% done VS. 71% historically at this date)
- Oil price remains low
Objectives:
Wheat could first decrease to the $7.00/bu level (support and 50% Fibonacci retracement level). And then maybe to the $6.80/bu level (support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level) or will rebound on the support levels and will go up again if there are more positive news on Chinese imports and bad news on US harvest. Last objective is between $6.60/bu (theoretical objective of the Head & Shoulders pattern) and $6.50/bu (support)
Feel free to share, comment and give your opinion if it is constructive ;)
DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice
BEARISH ON US WHEAT (SHORT-TERM)Bearish clues:
- The general trend has been downward since mid of August 2021
- Wheat price has reached the resistance at $7.71/bu and the middle of the Andrews' Pitchfork
- The price of wheat has already broken down a bullish channel
- The price of wheat has already broken down the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last swing and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last big up move
- The price of wheat has broken the 20 exponential moving average
Fundamental news:
- The USD is more and more stronger, which is bearish for US commodities
- Drop in oil prices
- Take profit from investors
- Better climate conditions in the North-East (wheat suffered from drought. Only 11% of spring wheat in the US are considered as good quality (spring wheat represents 25% of wheat acreages in the US => - 11% on the US wheat production YoY (Source: USDA).
Objectives:
Wheat could first decrease to the $7.10/bu level (support). And then maybe to the $6.90/bu level (50% Fibonacci retracement level and bottom of the Andrews' Pitchfork) or will rebound on the support level and will go up again if there are more positive news on Chinese imports and bad news on US harvest.
SHORT-TERM: BEARISH
MID-TERM: WAITING THE END OF THE US HARVEST
Feel free to share, comment and give your opinion if it is constructive ;)
DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice
Wheat Futures (DEC 2021)3 wave pattern
Two patterns completed, 3 joining wave patterns completed. Making the next wave either a 3 wave or a 5 wave.
It traded to a retracement zone of 0.5% which is the point of entry in a corrective pattern for some of us
Currently, futures short covering is an extra condition to go long,
LONG