MZC1! trade ideas
Corn Short, Based on COT data and TAZC1!
Commercial accounts are currently net short on corn futures contracts (-355k contracts), while as noncommercial accounts aka, Retail traders, are net long (+411k contracts). These two positions are at extreme polarized ends of the play. Usually commercials tend to be net short on any asset but its the extremes one should keep an eye on.
Corn is currently at a basing pattern, with a previous impulsive move to the downside. Entering at a base is relatively risky, since the pattern can either turn into a drop base drop or a drop base rally pattern. So one can play this two ways, enter short at the base with a tight SL so if an impulsive move to the upside were to occur, you will stop out with minimal damage. Or, wait for the pattern to play out and if the pattern is a drop base rally, then short a potential double top. The play I am making is short at the base of this pattern with a SL at 407'5.
Targets for the short are
- 0.5 retracement
- 0.618 retracement
- 0.786 retracement
- 305'4
I will be taking profits at each target, with the last target being a runner position.
Corn Bearish ForecastI see a nested supply zone from Daily pressing on resistance 384. We might see bullish spikes trying to break that resistance line, but according to our structure it should fall. We anticipate a bearish move here and it will need confirmation, also monitoring once confirmed.
If it gets below 377, then we might have our bearish bias. But volume or momentum strength will play an important role.
All of my market shared technical set-ups are speculative, they are not guaranteed for accuracy or in completeness in the form of any content. At this profile page, the analysis, ideas and also, the strategy of a chart belongs to Khiwe; -it is not to advice on financial markets; please apply your own analysis and confirm it with price action.
Wyckoff Event in Corn Background:
After a series of Sell Down in Corn ,
we finally see a accumulation and breakout of
the chart signal us that the sell off is over.
The composite man has probably done their
accumulation phase and now is the time to
bring the real rally out from water.
In all the 3x Previous rally
are followed with relatively Higher
Volume . Each Pull back forming
a Higher Low and
showing a Up trend
line is FORMED.
Wyckoff Analysis Events
PS Preliminary Support
SC Selling Climax
AR Automatic Rally
ST Secondary Test
Spring Test
SOS Sign of Strength
LPS Last Point Of Support
BU Back-Up (Small Pull Back After SOS)
Entry : 365-370 (If PB Happen), Otherwise current Price.
Target : T1 410, T2 460
(Before Dec 2020 Contract Expired)
Stop : 355
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Other Wyckoff Analysis on SoyBean
UPTREND SUPPORT SLIDING DOWN - CORN - ZC1! - 30MNWe have seen an up trending line hidden but being actually acting like a super strong resistance line stopping the market to go further up. Shall we see it like a regulated price for the Corn ? Not sure. But this line is clearly sliding and in a very regular way giving us a probability to see it sliding further.
The black arrow are showing the sliding effect.
We have marked with a red line the potential next break. if it breaks, there is a strong probability to see the market going down further to the next blue line down, following the logic of a next level of support from past history data.
We have also market in green a potential break up, as the market decides at the end. But, that point can be seen as a probable good entry for a short position direction. A potential pullback down might occur as the candlestick in the red circle shows a brake in the uptrend. it is a signal. Huge volumes have been stopping the market from going up further.
For the moment we stick to the possible short direction scenario.
A short and Long view on the Weekly chart - CORN FuturesMain items we can see on the chart:
a) On the weekly chart, we can define 3 clear structures
b) The first structure is the support the price is currently in
c) The other 2 zones are the Targets we have either for the bullish or bearish movement
d) Our Long view will wait for the breakout of the descending trendline (yellow line) and we will expect for a corrective structure on a lower timeframe after that
e) The bearish scenario needs the support zone to be broken and then a corrective structure after that. The main target is the next support zone
f) Both scenarios have good potential in terms of movement
