MZS1! trade ideas
Soybean futures ZS - EW analysis - may be the correction time Soybean futures - ZS - It seems completed impulse up cycle of C wave up. But yet not confirmed the next correction or bearish cycle. if price crosses above last major high, then it may continue the further upside, but if price falls below 4th wave then it will start correcting down.
Give thumbs up if you really like the trade idea.
Week 01: ZSF 2021 Still Buyer's Market in the early 2021First day of trading in 2021, ZSF2021 is very bullish in the first 4 hours.
The market structure is clearly visible in H4, it keeps making a Higher High and we noticed the green candle momentum are relatively stronger on each pullback. Therefore we saw a series of uptrend last month.
The current Support level is at $1,320 and currently we have not seen any sellers (yet) in the market.
Will the price keeps going up? if there is no significant seller, yes. How high? we do not know yet.
What we know, the direction will change when the Seller is bringing down the price back to $1,320 area.
For now, no trade call for first week of 2021.
Next week I will start using ZSH2021.
Stay safe.
Soybeans -A Bullish ConceptSoybeans going up.
Concepts:
My friend and I, drew a straight line on a 1 minute chart, and we called it - "Support". In every time frame we scaled up to, -the line was valid as "support" but changing attributes to candlesticks.
Why? Because a straight line is by time, still a flat plane. Great. So what does that mean about chart time frames?
Answer that, and you will see many things.
I, the Son of Phalo (Pharaoh).
K.
At this profile page, the shared analysis, ideas and also, the strategy of a chart belong to Khiwe. The technical set-ups are speculative, they are not guaranteed for accuracy or in completeness in the form of any content; -it is not to advice on financial markets. Please apply your own analysis and confirm it with price action.
The bull need to breath - why soybeans is close to a correction.Since the beginning of November, the soybean market has rallied 23.5% on the back of a very bullish story (Chinese demand and some weather fear). We all know that in a healthy and constructive bull market, we always have some profit-taking and dips along the way…Technically the market is showing some exhaustion in the short term, which may bring some profit-taking and downside pressure at the beginning of 2021 (and buying opportunity)….
Today’s price action makes me believe that if we break the lows of 1280 basis SH21, the profit-taking/selling pressure can accelerate in the short term, which may bring prices to the 38% and 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels (blue box). This blue box (1200/1150 interval) is also the level where a big chunk of the recent longs were taken, as we can see in the volume by price profile (horizontal bars on the right).
This 1200/1150 area the market will try to defend and is targeting as strong support going into the beginning of 2021!!
The bull is still alive and strong going into 2021 - BEANS BACK TO THE TEENS
Week 50: Short Opportunity on ZSF 2021Weekly analysis for ZSF2021
Week 50: 07 December to 11 December 2020
Following up last week analysis, the Resistant level at $1,200 remained in tact and our key level at $1,161 had been penetrated.
Therefore, now we are looking to sell as the direction had changed.
Here is my personal trade call for this week :
Short now or Sell Stop at $1,154.00
Stop Loss (SL) is at $1,175.00
Take Profit (TP) is at $1,083.00
It gives us 3.47R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Price targets, Profits and Plans to ExitOne of the most controversial issues about investment and/or trading is the topic of knowing a profit/price targets. In a way, it is about seeing into the future and deciding that is the end goal, for some.
By using the support and resistance lines , we can better guide ourselves towards this goal. Like in the Soybean Chart , we can see that there were two price points - 26/2/18 and 06/06/16 peaks. Those investors who had bought at the high price back then would be waiting impatiently to get rid of this commodity asap. Thus, we can see a healthy correction at 1078 price level where it is also the resistance level.
Then, it surpassed that level and prices continue to go higher. Now, at 1201, we are again facing the peak last visited at 06/06/16. Now, that is 4 over years ago. Those investors who are still holding this are bleeding in their accounts for so long and are dying to get out soonest possible.
For that, we see the last 2 red candles, which means some selling action. Apart from those who bought at high and awaiting to sell , there are of course, the opportunistic short term short sellers who take advantage of price actions and trade it for a quick profits.
So, like a see saw, the heavier side will win. If enough bulls over the next few days/weeks continue to support the price, then , we can see a bullish continuation pattern where it breaks above the resistance level at 1201.
Now, every chart is different and so the sector that it is IN. This is crucial ! For example, we are now witnessing a sector rotation where certain tech stocks are going through a correction (Netflix, FB, Apple, Amazon, etc) and Banks and Energy stocks are basking in the sun and putting on a big smile to the bull traders/investors !
For stocks, I generally do not sell , that is no plans to EXIT the business UNLESS it has fundamentally change its nature of business, suffers badly in terms of numbers, etc .
For commodities, currencies, indices , cryptocurrencies, etc, I do have short and mid terms position in them.
On profits and profit targets - this is how I look at it . It is important to know when to sell and once the profits is in your pocket, that is when you truly knows you have made it, never mind the monetary amount. Use some of it to reward yourself.
Look at the price points in the chart as a NEVER ENDING ROPE. The knots at the ropes are your resting points or take profits zone. Once you took the profits, you assess where the rope is heading , is it up, sideway or down. You decide what strategy to use to climb the next journey and plan where is the next knot/profits zone.
Of course, you may not reach all knots that you think you have set out to achieve. Sometimes, before you reach it, you slipped and fall a few steps (similar to price pull back and evaporates all your profits) OR you were distracted while climbing and decided to jump ship to the next rope adventure (from one position to the next by closing the first position). Again, it is hard to say if this is right or wrong as everyone assess the market differently and we need to respect that.
Sometimes, you are in the wrong boat and it is wiser to take a short term pain to end it by bailing out rather than to ride it to the wrong destination. If you hope it will detour and bring you to where you wanna go, you may be in for a surprise.
I wanted to write this from my personal experience as I get comments or PMs from followers asking me on this or that stocks where is the profit targets?
The fears come when you start to chase high price and then you have no ideas where to exit , fearing it might reverse sooner than expected. That is why the trend lines, supports and resistance, price action , all combined helps me to reach a decision.
I hope this is helpful to some of you out there. Again, I may not be able to reply to your questions/comments/Pms immediately so I appreciate your patience and understanding.
Soybeans: Trending up, buy on dips...I think we have a nice setup to buy the dip in Soybean futures or using $SOYB. It's a rather big contract, so keep that in mind if trading futures.
There's a long term trend signal active, for many more months still, so any dip is a buy if you're patient enough.
I highlight a trend that reached its peak in the daily timeframe here, so, a retracement entry is likely to materialize in the coming days and weeks.
Keep an eye on it, don't miss out on the big gains to be had in this market.
As @timwest pointed out, fundamentals for Soybeans and the long term chart are ridiculously bullish now, so, it is going to be very hard to hold on to positions for long enough to reap the benefits, and specially hard to join the trend for most people. The droughts in Brazil are affecting crops, and there's a huge demand from China, since the soybean producing regions were affected by floods recently, there's also a big need for soybeans to produce pork in South America, like the huge farms they are setting up in the South of Argentina.
As a bonus, if the US wants to hurt China, their best bet is to make the food prices go up, specially Soybeans. They had been buying commodities for cheap for a long time until now. That might be changing already, and considering the expectations I have of rising inflation and interest rates, in a post Pandemic world, this is further fuel for the fire in this rally here.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Week 49: ZSF 2021 Still bullishWeekly analysis for ZSF2021
Week 49: 30 November to 04 December 2020
Here is the playbook for Week 49, overall it is still Bullish.
(a) Currently on H4, the price is forming a bullish flag with $12,000 is the current Resistance Level.
(b) It may not be a straight forward bullish; the real key level is at $11,161.50 (area).
What does this mean?
(1) If the price make a clean break on $12,000 then we put a Buy Limit at $12,000 area
(2) If the price just make a shy break on $12,000 level, then we are expecting either a False Breakout or another price compression.
(3) If the price cannot break $12,000 it is still Bullish, don't get trapped by thinking that the trend has changed. The direction is only changing after the price enters $11,161.50 and below.
Therefore, overall this week is still bullish bias; take a rational decision, don't get emotion involved.
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
