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Mini-Corn FuturesMM

Mini-Corn Futures

451'5USXD
−6'1−1.34%
As of today at 10:09 GMT
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March 22 CornMarch 22 Corn - Daily: March Corn broke above the downtrend line and filled a Major Primary target at 6.15 with its 6.17 high. Last week’s 5.93 close matches the pivot high we are currently using for retracement targets, and it is resting against a current uptrend line that began in mid October. Also, the Heaviest amount of volume by price is between 5.75 and 5.85. This should act as solid support if the current uptrend line is broken. A move above 6.17 will look for targets up to the next major target at 6.51. Support/risk below at 5.57.
CBOT:ZCH2022
by mtb1980
Big Picture look at Corn Market structureCurrent Market Structure: **Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** (IMO) The current Domestic and World; Supply & Demand numbers,paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range from 4.75 to 5.15. There are to many variables that could change the fundamental picture and that is what this chart and the extreme bandidth is trying to tell us. 2014-2020 that was a 3.75 base. If the Market went to far above or below 3.75, eventually it came back to it. Resistance above the 5.75 area at 6.50 - 7.35. **5.75+ is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged Major Support is the 5.15 to 4.75 area. **Many 22’ break evens are coming in at this range. Eventually price will return to this area. Risk is 4.00-3.80 range with further extreme risk at 3.00. We traded a 6 year range from 3.00 to 4.50, someday there could still be a pull back to that area **This is a continuous front month chart, new crop (currently Dec 22’) targets should be considered when front month futures hit target areas…
C
by mtb1980
December 2022 CornDecember 22 Corn - Weekly: From 2014-2020 Corn traded within a more definable market structure. 3.00-4.50(ish). During this time I would run previous years High to Low retracements and place initial targets at retracements under 100% and hope to fill targets up to 127%. We are currently in the beginning stages of developing a new market structure where upside potential and downside risk is unmeasurable. Friday we hit the 5.63 target and now within a day’s move to catch the Primary target at 5.78. At 5.50-5.78 I think it is wise to be 10%-25% sold. **Price before Time** Look at adding Shor Dated (May-July)puts to protect elevated break evens. Support is 4.80-4.62. Risk below is wide open below
C
by mtb1980
1
March22 CornMarch 22 Corn - Daily: Heaviest amount of volume between 5.75 and 5.85. This should act as good support or resistance as March takes the lead contract. Impressive intra-day recovery Friday. A break above $6.00 will have interest up to 6.15. Be careful of a bull trap in the 5.98-6.03 area. A quick move up and then close below the trend line would not look good. Support is the 5.57 pivot low. Further risk is the dashed trend line down to the 5.20 area. **Will run support targets once we get a confirmed swing high…
C
by mtb1980
December 21 CornDecember 21 Corn - Daily: Corn had all the potential to fail on Friday as the world Financial and Energy markets caved on the latest news on a new Covid Variant. After gapping lower and trading most of the day lower, buyers came in late and gave the Dec21 contract its highest daily close since July…. that seems bullish. Volume was decent/strong for a holiday. Who bought this? Dec/March spread narrowed and commercial end users have had a very strong basis as of late. Maybe some strong commercial interest. Will be interesting to see what Dec 21’ corn does after 1st notice. Remember what Corn did end of April into May when May expired. Big pump, followed by a big dump….. Don’t sit on this. Sell some physical and re own with a call if needed….
C
by mtb1980
Big picture Corn Market structureCurrent Market Structure: **Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** The current Domestic and World Supply & Demand numbers paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range from 4.75 to 5.15. There are to many variables that could change the fundamental picture and that is what this chart and the extreme bandidth is trying to tell us. Sensitive…. Resistance at the 5.75 area and then 6.50 - 7.35. **5.75 is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged Support is the 5.15 to 4.75 area. **Most 22’ break evens are coming in at this range. Eventually price will return to this area. Risk is 4.00-3.80 range with further extreme risk at 3.00. We traded a 6 year range from 3.00 to 4.50, someday there could still be a pull back to that area **This is a continuous front month chart, new crop (currently Dec 22’) targets should be considered when front month futures hit target areas…
C
by mtb1980
CORNNNNNNNNNNNNStagflation Oil Harvest USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board anticipates 2021/22 corn, soybean, and wheat harvested area to total nearly 1.4 billion acres. In the past two years, an additional 57 million acres of corn, soybeans, and wheat across the world have come into production – a 4.4% increase since 2019. And those acres need supplemental nutrients to produce profitable yields. Current price levels are encouraging for fertilizer production expansion. But rising natural gas costs as energy supplies run dry mean that the global fertilizer production increase could be thwarted by looming energy shortages in Russia, China and the European Union. NOAA is currently forecasting a warmer than normal winter across much of the Heartland. Temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains are likely to be cooler than usual. If an unexpected polar vortex hits late in the winter and energy reserves in the Gulf are not adequate, domestic fertilizer production could face more delays. It will likely be another tight year of global fertilizer supplies as more world players such as India, Brazil, China and Russia compete with the U.S. for available fertilizer supplies. While spring 2022 shortage fears are still largely speculative, farmers are wise to plan for worst-case scenarios regarding 2022 fertilizer applications. It marks a warranted shift in managerial focus from price risk to operational risk. As we have prominently seen over the past three growing cycles, crop quality and yield – thus revenues – are negatively impacted when farmers halt operations for any reason. And with a rapid rise in weather volatility, waiting on pesticide and fertilizer supplies next spring increases the risk for lower yields next fall.
CLong
by UnknownUnicorn29753125