Wheat :to sellHello,Traders! wheat was in a downtrend
-the wheat is for sale if it does not break the downtrend
XW1! trade ideas
WheatWheat price (ZW features) jumped as result of RU breaking deal with UKR. Additionally RU attacked grain terminal in Odessa with rockets. Price raised to 750 and then strongly corrected to below 700. This correction might be due to hopes that grain deal will be restored. Unfortunately, now this looks less likely. Both RU and UKR threaten ships on black see - that will affect the grain transport. Insurance premiums for this route will rise/potentially this also can affect the shipping merchants that do not want to risk their ships to be destroyed. Both RU + UKR is about 30% of grain export.
Weather situation effect on harvest. There is still possible some effects. This will develop.
Assuming now that weather is not major effect for now.
UKR means to transport wheat:
1. Odessa terminal (main route)
2. Danube terminal (river is drying) - improved since 2022.
3. Land routes
Embargos of some EU countries on UKR wheat also complicating situation now (i.e. Poland). Difficulties with land routes.
Expect the price to rise above 800 levels.
ZWN2023 - Artificial scarcity Wheat is getting cheapering
although it should go up in price because there's less of it on the market.
Prices in the stores are going up
How this happens, who can explain to me.
if you like the idea, please "Like" it. This is the best "Thanks!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and please yourself and your friends.
ZW1! Will Grow! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for ZW1!.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 703'2.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 812'7 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Wheat: Time for the turning point ⤴️🚀The recent downward movement has brought the wheat price into our blue trading zone and thus the minimum requirement of the current blue corrective wave (b) has been fulfilled. We expect it to go a little lower, but gradually the price should now form the end of the wave, allowing long entries. In the further sequence, we see the price rising above the resistance at USX 807.25, where we locate the high of the turquoise wave A. However, if the bears dominate and push the price lower, there is a 25% chance that the price will fall below the USX 611.25 support level, which buyers may want to keep in mind.
Wheat - Too FastNature is beautiful.
It's always balancing the underlying energy.
That's what we see here.
Wheat spurted down too fast.
The down-swing can be put in context by the Medianlines.
Here, price has reached it's balance again at the CL.
What's next? I bet for sideways to short action, until we crack the orange CIB line.
Stalking Hat on...
Inflation Cycle – Commodities Lead Inflation NumberThe last 50 years, we have seen gold, commodities, and inflation numbers move in cycles and in tandem together.
Though gold has picked up in recent years, make no mistake, the cycle between them is still intact.
If gold is leading the way, the rest should catch up subsequently.
Gold will likely remain high because of the easy money policy over the decades or the creation of off-balance debt.
Based on past cycle performance, commodities may come into alignment with gold, meaning there is a chance for commodities to catch up with gold.
When that happens, inflation will pick up again.
The inflation data to be reflected, such as the CPI or PCE, is usually a few months behind the commodity prices.
Therefore, the Fed has been in defense mode, combating inflation due to the weakness of the dollar, elevation of gold and firmness in commodities.
Some reference for traders:
Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation
1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 / ZW
Gold Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 / GC
Soybean Oil Futures & Options - Its Minimum Fluctuation
1/100 of one cent (0.0001) per pound = $6.00 / ZL
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Wheat predictions: How winding up grain deal blows up the price The world is "not optimistic" that the grain-export corridor that has allowed it to ship more than 30 million tons of crops amid the Russia - Ukraine tensions will be extended beyond July, the country’s infrastructure minister said Wednesday.
The efficiency of the Black Sea corridor is faltering and crop volumes are declining. Even if prolonged, it won’t be as helpful in offloading the nearing 2023 harvests in its current state.
"We are doing our best in order to maintain this initiative", - Mr. Kubrakov (who signed the deal) said.
The deal — which was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey — has helped lower world food prices and maintain a sector that is vital for Ukraine’s economy.
It is next up for renewal on July 17, nearby July, 2023 CBOT:ZWN2023 Wheat Futures contract expiration.
Russian President Vladimir Putin already signaled that his nation may quit the pact, though the UN has urged all parties to press on.
There are no prerequisites for extending the grain deal, Mr. Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President said on June 21.
The deal has recently been plagued by a persistent slowdown in ship inspections, and Russia’s refusal to approve vessels headed to one of the three ports it covers.
Some 1.3 million tons of crops were shipped via the corridor in May, less than a third of the peak in October, UN figures show.
The technical picture indicates, Wheat Futures contracts are heading up for the 5th consecutive weeks in a row, second time since Q1 2022, last time due to widely known tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
With almost 30 percent gain from 2023 low near 575 cents per bushel, the price breaking up 1/2-year simple moving average, with further upside opportunities, up to 800 cents per bushel.
Cycle - Gold vs Commodities vs Inflation In this video analysis, I will walk you through 3 keys:
1. My observation on these cycles
2. The super charge in the Gold, how that affect the commodities subsequently?
3. How about inflation? Will it settle at 3%?
Some reference for traders:
Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation
1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 / ZW
Gold Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 / GC
Soybean Oil Futures & Options - Its Minimum Fluctuation
1/100 of one cent (0.0001) per pound = $6.00 / ZL
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Moving Averages: Their Role and Significance in TAWhen I worked as a professional technical analyst at major banks, I often encountered two common questions: Did I optimize my moving averages, and why did I use a 55-week and 200-week moving average?
To address these queries, I've created a short video. The answer is that I never optimized the moving averages. Firstly, moving averages have a lagging effect, and secondly, when optimized, they may work well for a short period but eventually lose effectiveness. Therefore, I never relied on them as a sole basis for entering or exiting trades. Instead, I used them to confirm my existing views.
However, moving averages do serve a purpose, especially if you find ones that work well for you. In my case, I found that the 55-week and 200-week moving averages were effective. Firstly, I observed that several markets tended to revert to these long-term moving averages (I analyze numerous charts regularly). Secondly, the 55-week moving average approximates to around one year of data, while the 200-week moving average approximates to around four years. This is significant because many clients pay close attention to these long-term moving averages. My speculation is that the United States, being one of the largest markets globally, experiences presidential elections every four years, which impacts the US Dollar and, consequently, other markets.
Examining the Wheat chart, you can see the impressive performance of the 55-week and 200-week moving averages during the bull market. They consistently supported the upward trend. However, when the market began to break below the 55-week moving average, it indicated a potential end to the bull trend. Subsequently, when it broke below the 55-week moving average for the second time, it confirmed the conclusion that the bull move was over and the trend had turned negative.
Presently, rallies to the 55-week moving average are failing. This conveys crucial information: Wheat is not only in a bearish trend but also suggests that any upward movements towards the 55-week moving average should be viewed as opportunities to sell.
Wheat (World) - Short Bias; Cheap Ukrainian wheat everywhere!Sure, it is winter in the northern hemisphere so why even bother with the grains at all? ...
... Because cheap Ukrainian wheat had absolutely flooded European markets, so much so that very soon they will have to start dumping some of it into the ocean! (Right now, they are trying to air out these mountains of grain, so it wouldn't mold, but that will go only so far.)
Normally, this time of the year, 55-60 ships per week get loaded with Ukrainian wheat, headed for Africa and Asia.
As of last week, these numbers are down to 19 ships .
Russia closed the Bosporus to Ukrainian wheat (and oil seed) shipments.
As an alternative solution, Ukraine is shipping most of its harvest to the EU - mostly Poland & Germany - to load it on ships in those ports. - But guess what ...
... shipping it all to Europe AND THEN load it onto ships makes the whole proposition economically non-viable. (Well below producer cost.)
So now, the endless trainloads of grains, continuously pouring into the EU, gets dumped all over EU markets (at 40%-60% discounts!) because long empty local silos are all filled to capacity. There is now zero (0) storage capacity left anywhere in Europe! (... and the endless trainloads just keep on coming.)
... making this trade - not a monster - rather a no-brainer. (Like free beer)
Sell wheat everyday 🐻🍞Who sells wheat everyday? It’s the price-reducing wheat bears who want to provide us all with a cheap basic supply of food. "Affordable wheat for all," chant they, offering reduced-price bushels of wheat to anyone who comes their way. At the moment, they are not to be restrained in their sell-off ecstasy, however, we already see the low of the blue wave (v) lying shortly before us, which means that this sell-off should soon come to its end. The wheat price is already in our green target zone here (between USX 662 and USX 472), where we expect a trend reversal. The bulls should therefore report back before too long and point to the need for higher wheat prices. It should be noted that with the end of said blue (v) wave, an overarching and relatively long-lasting correction should also come to its end. Therefore, our green highlighted target zone can serve as an excellent entry opportunity for speculations on the long side.
Grain Strain: How Geopolitical Unrest Threatens Wheat Prices AmiOpinion:
The recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, following the assassination attempt on the Russian president, has raised concerns about the potential impact on global wheat prices. This situation becomes even more significant if Russia decides to withdraw from its agreements with Ukraine. As major players in the global wheat market, Russia and Ukraine together account for about 29% of the world's wheat exports, with Russia being the largest exporter, contributing around 18.5% in 2020. Any disruptions in their wheat production or export capabilities can have substantial implications for international prices, particularly considering the inelastic demand for wheat.
Wheat, as a staple food for many populations, has an inelastic demand, meaning that changes in its price have a relatively small impact on the quantity demanded. Given this inelastic nature, disruptions in the wheat supply due to geopolitical issues may result in significant price fluctuations, as consumers' demand remains relatively constant despite price increases.
In the event of Russia's withdrawal from its agreements with Ukraine, several consequences could directly or indirectly affect global wheat prices:
Intensified conflict and regional instability may disrupt wheat production and transportation. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the conflict has already led to a 15-20% reduction in agricultural production in affected areas. Further escalation could exacerbate these issues, limiting wheat production and export capabilities for both countries. The resulting supply shortages could disproportionately affect wheat prices, given the inelastic demand.
Geopolitical uncertainties created by the conflict could lead to trade restrictions and sanctions. In the past, Western countries have imposed sanctions against Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine. For example, in 2014, the United States and the European Union imposed economic sanctions on Russia, which impacted various sectors, including agriculture. If the situation deteriorates, additional sanctions could limit Russia's ability to export wheat to certain markets, creating supply chain disruptions and increasing the volatility of wheat prices on the global market, even with the inelastic demand.
Potential impacts on wheat prices could prompt other major wheat producers to adjust their production levels in response to shifting global demand. For instance, countries like the United States, Canada, and Australia may increase domestic production or seek alternative sources to secure their wheat supplies. As of 2021, these countries collectively contributed around 30% of the world's wheat exports. Changes in their production strategies could further affect global wheat prices, especially considering the inelastic nature of wheat demand.
The heightened uncertainty due to the assassination attempt on the Russian president and the subsequent escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine could lead to increased speculation in the commodities market. In 2021, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures saw significant price fluctuations in response to changing geopolitical situations. Traders may continue to react to the heightened uncertainty by buying or selling wheat futures contracts, which can influence short-term price movements and contribute to market volatility, despite the inelastic demand.
In conclusion, the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have the potential to significantly impact global wheat prices, particularly if Russia withdraws from its agreements with Ukraine. Consequences of such a decision could include disruptions to wheat production and transportation, trade restrictions and sanctions, adjustments in global wheat production, and increased market speculation. The inelastic nature of wheat demand could exacerbate these impacts, leading to considerable price fluctuations. To mitigate the potential effects of these developments on wheat prices, it is essential for governments, producers, and traders to closely monitor the situation and develop contingency plans to ensure the stability of wheat supplies and markets.
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
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