US100 trade ideas
NASDAQNASDAQ If the price cannot break through the 22728 level, it is expected that the price will drop. Consider selling the red zone.
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NSDQ100 lower after ADP Employment shrank to 33K in JuneTrump Trade Tensions:
Donald Trump reaffirmed his July 9 deadline for higher tariffs, intensifying criticism of Japan, particularly over auto sector issues. While Japan insists talks are in good faith, market fears of a breakdown are rising.
US Tax Policy in Focus:
Trump’s “Big Beautiful” tax and spending bill faces potential resistance in the House despite narrowly passing the Senate. The proposal’s scale and political friction are drawing investor attention.
Apple Supply Chain Worry:
Foxconn has pulled hundreds of Chinese staff from its Indian iPhone factories, sparking fresh concerns about Apple’s supply chain and Wall Street’s potentially overheated tech optimism.
Paramount Settlement:
Paramount resolved a lawsuit with Trump over alleged election interference via CBS’s coverage. Meanwhile, the company awaits FCC approval for its Skydance merger.
Auto Sector Weakness:
Stellantis reported a 10% drop in U.S. Q2 deliveries despite some brand gains. Tesla is expected to post a 12% annual decline in vehicle deliveries, reinforcing signs of cooling demand in the sector.
Conclusion:
Markets remain cautious but resilient amid political tensions, supply chain disruptions, and weaker auto sales. Attention is now turning to upcoming trade deadlines, policy decisions, and Q2 corporate results.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 22710
Resistance Level 2: 22820
Resistance Level 3: 22930
Support Level 1: 22190
Support Level 2: 22040
Support Level 3: 21900
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US100 update market The chart you've shared is a 2-hour timeframe for the US 100 index (NASDAQ 100) with a clear bearish outlook marked by projected price levels and potential demand zones.
Key Observations:
1. Current Price:
22,478.5 (near-term consolidation with recent bearish pressure)
2. Highlighted Zones:
Resistance Zone: Around 22,750–22,800 — where price previously reversed.
First Demand Zone: Around 22,100–22,200 — potential support.
Second Demand Zone: Around 21,500–21,600 — deeper support level.
Third Major Demand Zone: Near 21,200 — long-term support.
3. Bearish Structure:
Price has broken below recent support levels.
Black dotted line shows a projected move toward lower demand zones.
Momentum appears to be weakening after a strong bullish rally from June 21–28.
4. Technical Bias:
This is a bearish correction or possible trend reversal setup.
The presence of strong demand zones suggests potential bounce zones if price reaches those levels.
---
Summary:
This chart implies a bearish move is underway on the US 100 with expected targets near 22,100, then 21,600, and potentially 21,200. Watch for bullish reaction or reversal signals at those zones. If price reclaims 22,800+, bearish outlook would be invalidated.
Let me know if you want a trade setup or confirmation strategy based on this analysis.
Tesla Drop Pressures Nasdaq – 22,470 Key to Hold RecoveryUSNAS100 | Overview
Tesla dropped approximately 5%, weighing heavily on the Nasdaq, amid public tensions between Elon Musk and Donald Trump.
Yesterday, the price declined below 22,610 due to the impact of Tesla’s fall but remained above 22,470. As long as it trades above this level, a recovery attempt is likely, with the price expected to break through the consolidation zone between 22,615 and 22,740.
However, if the 1h candle closes below 22,470, the bearish trend is expected to continue toward 22,280 and potentially lower.
Pivot: 22,470
Resistance: 22,615 – 22,740 –23,000
Support: 22,280 – 22,200
NAS100 Potential ReversalHi there,
The NAS100 is slightly bullish and fairly stagnant. It is consolidating between two key levels (orange lines). A break below the price might fall into deeper demand zones.
Short Notes
- **Elliott Wave**: 5-wave structure appears complete at resistance (22,137.8), signalling a possible reversal.
- **Liquidity Zones**: Price is at/near a major liquidity zone, increasing reversal risk.
- **Break High**: There's a potential for a false breakout above wave 5 before dropping.
- **Support Levels**: The 21,800.6 (previous day high) and 21,146.2 (previous day low) for first support.
- **Demand Zones**: Strong demand below 21,146.2, with deeper support near 20,000 and 18,800.
- **Overview: A possible bearish move ahead from current highs, targeting lower demand zones.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice
Weekly highs swept, aiming for weekly lows now.Liquidity Grab above Weekly Highs
Bearish Rejection Wicks
Trendline Break
Imbalance / Fair Value Gaps below
Reversion to Mean / Higher Timeframe Discount Zones
Usrec longs after drop📈 US Tech 100 | 15-Min Chart
✅ Live Trade Example using ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion
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This setup was captured using the ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion indicator. A clean BUY signal was triggered after an extended move, followed by a sharp reversal — perfectly timed and visually confirmed by the indicator’s built-in logic.
💡 The result? A precise entry with a strong follow-through.
This tool is built to spot high-probability reversals with confluence — across timeframes, instruments, and volatility conditions.
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Up Up Up... Nothing Can Stop NAS From RisingLet's take a look at the big picture in the NASDAQ: Do you see how nicely the spring crash landed on the 50% retracement of the upward movement since fall 2022?
Now that we've crossed the old ATH, the targets are clear, and they're way up in the NASDAQ.
The summer correction is therefore likely to fail and probably turn into a listless sideways slide. By September at the latest, however, the NAS should pick up speed again and head for targets between 25,000 and 26,000 - at the very least.
Clear skies!
USNAS100 Bullish Momentum Holds Above Key PivotUSNAS100 – Overview
The price successfully retested the 22,610 level and resumed its bullish trend, reaching 22,750 as anticipated in our previous idea.
Currently, the index needs to maintain stability above the 22,610 pivot line to sustain the upward momentum toward the next resistance at 22,790. A sustained move above this level may open the path toward 23,000.
However, a 1H candle close below 22,610 could trigger a corrective move down to 22,480. A break below this support would expose the next key level at 22,280.
Pivot: 22,610
Resistance: 22,790 – 23,000
Support: 22,480 – 22,280
Nas100With speculation about no rate cuts we can expect to see Nas100 plumet with Fed Powells upcoming speech.
If we look at the technical side we can see that Nas has been somewhat consolidating over the past 2 days creating a fair amount of Sell side liquidity. We can expect Powell to speak about rat cuts today in his upcoming speech and we will use this to our advantage waiting for early buyers to push up the market triggering our setup.
We can look for a plus minus 100 pip move before Nas turns around, we will however closely monitor the movement of Nas now until the speech so that we can execute a trade with the least amount of risk.
Remember to like and subscribe for more A+ setups.
Overfitting Will Break Your Strategy — Here’s Why█ Why Your Backtest Lies: A Quant’s Warning to Retail Traders
As a quant coder, I’ve seen it time and again: strategies that look flawless in backtests but fall apart in live markets.
Why? One word: overfitting.
Compare the signals in the images below. They’re from the same system, but one is overfitted, showing how misleading results can look when tuned too perfectly to the past.
⚪ Overfitting is what happens when you push a strategy to perform too well on historical data. You tweak it, optimize it, and tune every rule until it fits the past perfectly, including every random wiggle and fluke.
To retail traders, the result looks like genius. But to a quant, it’s a red flag .
█ Trading strategy developers have long known that “curve-fitting” a strategy to historical data (overfitting) creates an illusion of success that rarely holds up in live markets. Over-optimizing parameters to perfectly fit past price patterns may produce stellar backtest results, but it typically does not translate into real profits going forward.
In fact, extensive research and industry experience show that strategies tuned to past noise almost inevitably disappoint out-of-sample.
The bottom line: No one succeeds in markets by relying on a strategy that merely memorized the past — such “perfect” backtests are fool’s gold, not a future edge.
█ The Illusion of a Perfect Backtest
Overfitted strategies produce high Sharpe ratios, beautiful equity curves, and stellar win rates — in backtests. But they almost never hold up in the real world.
Because what you’ve really done is this:
You built a system that memorized the past, instead of learning anything meaningful about how markets work.
Live market data is messy, evolving, and unpredictable. An overfit system, tuned to every quirk of history, simply can’t adapt.
█ A Warning About Optimization Tools
There are many tools out there today — no-code platforms, signal builders, optimization dashboards — designed to help retail traders fine-tune and "optimize" their strategies.
⚪ But here’s the truth:
I can't stress this enough — do not rely on these tools to build or validate your strategy.
They make it easy to overfit.
They encourage curve-fitting.
They give false hope and lead to false expectations about how markets actually work.
⚪ The evidence is overwhelming:
Decades of academic research and real-world results confirm that over-optimized strategies fail in live trading. What looks good in backtests is often just noise, not edge.
This isn’t something I’ve made up or a personal theory.
It’s a well-documented, widely accepted fact in quantitative finance, supported by decades of peer-reviewed research and real-world results. The evidence is overwhelming. It’s not a controversial claim — it’s one of the most agreed-upon truths in the field.
█ Why Overfitting Fails
Let me explain it like I do to newer coders:
Random patterns don’t repeat: The patterns your strategy "learned" were noise. They won't show up again.
Overfitting kills the signal: Markets have a low signal-to-noise ratio. Fitting the noise means you've buried the signal.
Markets change: That strategy optimized for low-volatility or bull markets? It breaks in new regimes.
You tested too many ideas: Try enough combinations, and something will look good by accident. That doesn’t make it predictive.
█ The Research Backs It Up
Quantopian’s 888-strategy study:
Sharpe ratios from backtests had almost zero predictive power for live returns.
The more a quant optimized a strategy, the worse it performed live.
Bailey & López de Prado’s work:
After testing enough variations, you’re guaranteed to find something that performs well by chance, even if it has no edge.
█ My Advice to Retail Traders
If your strategy only looks great after a dozen tweaks… It’s probably overfit.
If you don’t validate on out-of-sample data… you’re fooling yourself.
If your equity curve is “too good” to be true… it probably is.
Real strategies don’t look perfect — they look robust. They perform decently across timeframes, markets, and conditions. They don’t rely on lucky parameter combos or obscure filters.
█ What to Do Instead
Use out-of-sample and walk-forward testing
Stick to simpler logic with fewer parameters
Ground your system in market rationale, not just stats
Risk management over performance maximization
Expect drawdowns and variability
Treat backtest performance as a rough guide, not a promise
Overfitting is one of the biggest traps in strategy development.
If you want your trading strategy to survive live markets, stop optimizing for the past. Start building for uncertainty. Because the market doesn’t care how well your model memorized history. It cares how well it adapts to reality.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NASDAQ Possible short-term pull-back.Last time we analyzed Nasdaq (NDX) was a week ago (June 23, see chart below), giving a comfortable buy signal as the price was rebounding at the bottom of the 6-week Channel Up:
The price hit our 22300 Target and has now touched the top of the Channel Up. Based on the 4H RSI, it resembles the May 15 price action, which soon after pulled back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
It is possible to see such relief profit taking on the short-term and a test of 22200 (Fib 0.382).
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USNAS100 |Bullish Trend Holds Above Pivot – Eyeing 22790 & 23000USNAS100 | Bullish Movement
The price has stabilized above the key pivot level at 22640, confirming a continuation of the bullish trend toward the next resistance at 22790.
As long as the index remains above 22640, the uptrend is expected to extend toward 22790 and potentially 23000, with minor pullbacks likely to retest the pivot.
Currently, USNAS100 is consolidating between 22640 and 22790.
A 1H candle close below 22640 would signal a bearish correction toward 22520 and possibly 22410.
Pivot Line: 22640
Resistance Levels: 22790, 23000
Support Levels: 22520, 22410
previous idea:
NAS100 Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 21,651.9.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 22,171.9.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NAS100 - The stock market is breaking the ceiling!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its medium-term channels. If it does not increase and corrects towards different zone, it is possible to buy the index near the reward.
Following a strong rally in U.S.equities, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both achieved new all-time highs on Friday. It marks the first time since February that the S&P 500 has surpassed its previous peak, while the Nasdaq entered fresh price territory for the first time since December.
Despite ongoing market focus on economic data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy path, the simultaneous surge in both indices reflects a renewed appetite for risk in the stock market—an appetite that has been accelerating since mid-April, especially in tech stocks.
In contrast, the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap U.S. companies, still remains significantly below its prior high. To return to its October levels, it would need to rise over 13.5%. However, Friday’s 1.7% gain suggests capital is beginning to flow more broadly into underrepresented sectors.
Analysts argue that a strong breakout in the Russell 2000 could signal a broader rotation toward increased risk-taking—possibly driven by optimism over future rate cuts, easing inflation, and improved business conditions in the second half of the year.
Now that the S&P 500 has reached new highs and the Nasdaq has joined in, attention turns to the Russell 2000. If it begins to accelerate upward, markets could enter a new phase of sustained bullish momentum.
Following a week focused on gauging U.S. consumer spending strength, the upcoming holiday-shortened week (due to Independence Day) will shift attention to key employment and economic activity data.
On Tuesday, markets await the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the JOLTS job openings report. Wednesday will spotlight the ADP private employment report, and Thursday—one day earlier than usual due to the holiday—will see the release of several crucial figures, including the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), weekly jobless claims, and the ISM Services Index.
Currently, investor reaction to Donald Trump’s tariff commentary has been minimal. Market participants largely believe that any new tariffs would have limited inflationary effects and that significant retaliation from trade partners is unlikely.
Friday’s PCE report painted a complex picture of the U.S. economy. On one hand, inflation remains above ideal levels; on the other, household spending is showing signs of fatigue—a combination that presents challenges for policymakers.
Inflation-adjusted personal consumption fell by 0.3%, marking the first decline since the start of the year and indicating a gradual erosion of domestic demand. While wages continue to rise, their impact has been offset by declining overall income and reduced government support. To maintain their lifestyle, households have dipped into their savings, driving the personal savings rate down to 4.5%—its lowest level this year.
On the inflation front, the core PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.7% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. Monthly inflation also increased by 0.2%. Although these figures appear somewhat restrained, they remain above the Fed’s 2% target, with persistent price pressures in services—particularly non-housing services—still evident.
Altogether, the data suggest the U.S. economy faces a troubling divergence: weakening household income and consumption could slow growth, while sticky inflation in the services sector—especially under a potential Trump tariff scenario—could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates.
