Bearish Trade Idea NQ ShortWhat I would to see NQ do next. Seems to be Clear Indication we could turn over here.
US100 trade ideas
NASDAQ gave the best longterm bullish signal. Is 25300 possible?Nasdaq (NDX) confirmed the bounce on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as argued on our previous analysis (September 09) and the rebound made the ultimate bullish break-out last week, as it crossed above the Lower Highs trend-line of the July 11 All Time High (ATH), giving us the most consistent long-term buy signal on a 2-year basis.
As you can see on this chart that goes as back as October 2022 and the bottom of the Inflation Crisis Bear Cycle, the two times that Nasdaq broke above such Lower Highs trend-line, while being above the 1D MA200, it gave the best buy signal possible, with both rallies peaking after a +49% and +48% rise respectively.
The Sine Waves have also confirmed early this month that the index bottomed and now we have the ultimate bullish break-out confirmation. The longer the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds the better, but even if it breaks (April 2024), we still expect that we are on a similar Bullish Leg that should top in roughly the same way (+47% i.e. one percent less than the previous).
This gives us a long-term Target of 25300 for March - April 2025. We have plotted the Bullish Legs of 2023 and 2024 and as you can see, even though they diverge at times, they always converge again, forming a rough Channel Up, which can be a representation of our estimate course.
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Analysis of NASDAQ 100 (H1) - Technical Breakdown (Sep 23 2024)1. Wyckoff Accumulation & Distribution Phases:
This chart heavily applies Wyckoff's methodology, which is built on the phases of market accumulation and distribution. The schematic is drawn to reflect the following phases:
Phase A marks the preliminary support (PSY) and automatic rally (AR), where initial buying pressure emerges after a prolonged downtrend, indicating early signs of accumulation.
Phase B represents a secondary test (ST) and an upward thrust (UT) within the trading range. This phase signals the testing of supply and the building of a cause for future price movement.
Phase C typically includes a "spring" or test of support, but this chart appears to be leaning towards a distribution pattern as the price tests the upper boundary.
We can observe signs of a Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B, suggesting a potential shift from accumulation to distribution, as supply overwhelms demand at higher price levels.
2. Elliott Wave Count:
The Elliott Wave theory, which describes price movements in predictable wave patterns, is applied to the broader structure. The chart indicates the presence of a five-wave impulsive pattern (labeled 1-5):
Wave 1 seems to have completed near the automatic rally (AR).
Wave 2 traces back towards the end of the rally, with Wave 3 extending beyond the buying climax (BC).
The final wave (Wave 5) culminates with an upward thrust (UT) in Phase B, which could signal the completion of the current cycle, leading to a bearish correction or retracement.
3. Harmonic Patterns:
There is a clear integration of harmonic patterns within this chart, which is often used to predict potential reversal zones based on Fibonacci ratios. The highlighted zone with Fibonacci extensions (0.618, 1.236) suggests a potential area for a retracement:
The butterfly harmonic pattern outlined between Phase A and Phase B suggests that after the buying climax (BC), the price is primed for a pullback as it approaches key Fibonacci resistance levels.
The Bearish Bat pattern shows convergence near the upper resistance level (around 19,900-20,120), which corresponds with the end of Wave 5 in the Elliott Wave structure.
4. Fibonacci Levels and Retracements:
Key Fibonacci retracement levels have been plotted, notably the 0.618 and 1.236 extensions. These levels serve as potential resistance or support zones in the chart.
The price action initially retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level (around 19,567), marking a key level for potential support.
If the 1.236 extension level (19,576) holds as resistance, it could validate the bearish scenario suggested by the Wyckoff distribution and harmonic pattern convergence.
5. Volume and Price Momentum:
Though the volume is not displayed, the POC (Point of Control) is marked, which represents the price level where the highest volume of trading occurs within the given period. It aligns with a strong support zone at around 19,567.
RSI Indicator (represented by the red line below the price chart) appears to show weakening momentum, particularly in Phase B, further supporting the potential for a downward move as the price begins to test upper resistance levels.
6. ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Model Reference:
There is a reference to ICT’s Classic Weekly Profile. This model suggests a predictable weekly price structure where Monday typically creates a low or high for the week, followed by a mid-week reversal.
The chart points to a possible reversal towards the middle of the week, supported by the Wyckoff distribution and harmonic setups.
7. Key Resistance and Support Zones:
Several key levels are highlighted:
Upper Resistance (19,962.5 - 20,120): These zones, indicated by the buying climax (BC) and upper thrust (UT), are likely to serve as strong resistance as the price begins to retrace.
Support Zones: The area near 19,567 (0.618 retracement) and 19,490 marks a significant support zone, where demand could potentially re-enter if prices pull back sharply.
8. Wave Invalidation Points:
The chart includes an invalidating point for Wave 4. If the price breaches this level, the current wave structure would be invalidated, and a deeper correction might be expected. The potential invalidation could occur near 19,322, signaling a breakdown in the bullish impulse wave count.
Conclusion:
In summary, this NASDAQ 100 chart reflects a complex but highly informative mix of Wyckoff Distribution, Elliott Wave Theory, and Harmonic Patterns with Fibonacci retracements. The ongoing phase seems to indicate a transition towards a bearish correction, particularly as prices approach major resistance zones around 19,900 to 20,120. Traders should monitor key support levels near 19,567 and below, as a breach of these levels would likely trigger deeper corrective moves in line with the Wyckoff and Elliott Wave structures.
Clean swingI saw clear support and resistance and anticipated a breakout towards the upside and hopped on
NASDAQ FOLLOWUPThis is my initial proposal on the movement of NASDAQ !!!
What do you think ?
Will offer a detail view in writing when free
UPDATE ON NASDAQ ANALYSISNAS100 4H - As you can see after price trading us through and absorbing the last Supply Zone we are now expecting price to trade us up and into the one we have marked out above. From here I am expecting an S&D flip to the downside, giving us the opportunity to get involved in shorts.
In order for us to deem a valid entry we must wait for price to trade into the area of Supply and give us relevant confirmation to suggest that price is ready to move lower. We get this confirmation via a BOS to the downside.
A break in structure will tell us the that the correction trading us up and into the Supply Zone is over and a new trend trading us lower is ready to be printed into the market. I have drawn out an example on how I see price playing out over the course of the next few days.
Its important we wait for confirmation parameters before we get involved in these markets as it gives us a higher probability of being successful when placing trades and trading the market itself. I will keep you all posted with my doings.
Market Awaits Data and Fed Insights Amid Nasdaq ConsolidationInvestors Focus on Economic Data and Fed Speeches
On Monday, investors will be closely monitoring key economic data from the service and manufacturing sectors. Additionally, speeches from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will be watched for clues on the Federal Reserve's next policy moves.
Technical Analysis:
The Nasdaq is currently consolidating between 19,970 and 19,690. A breakout above 19,970 would signal a bullish trend towards 20,500. However, if the index remains below 19,970, it is likely to test 19,690, with a break below this level confirming a bearish trend targeting 19,370.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 19,870
Resistance Levels: 19970, 20120, 20500
Support Levels: 19535, 19370, 19160
Trend:
Consolidation: 19,970 - 19,690
Bullish: Above 19,970
Bearish: Below 19,680
Nazdaq - Stock market after the FEDThe index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel
If the index rises towards the supply zone, which is also at the intersection with the weekly pivot and the midline of the channel, you can look for sell positions in the Nasdaq index
The failure of the drawn trend line and the loss of the specified support range will provide the downward path of the index to the bottom of the ascending channel
NAS100NASDAQ is still on the resistance, just waiting for the price to take out the liquidity then we ride with sellers at the supply zone
Will US100 NASDAQ Hit Target?When the US100 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue with the formation of the Inverse Head and Shoulders formation on the trend line. As long as the index price does not break down from the 19008 level, it is evaluated that the price movements above the 19617 level may exceed the 20139 level and target the 20924 level.
US100 / NASDAQ TodayFor me looks like go up more, more.
I expect back to retest and continiue UP.
Just my view.
My risk is 1% account
Weekly Analyses Hi Traders,
Welcome to another weekly analyses for Sep 23 - 27
Top Down Analyses:
Weekly Timeframe
On the weekly chart, price is currently in a consolidation area between 20,033.6 and 18,092.2. The bullish inside day candle that was formed on Monday Sep 9, served as an indication that price would continue bullish. However, price is still yet to breakout of the range to confirm buys to ATHs. Currently, price is at a level of resistance where price previously retraced. Using my fibs, we can see that price currently sits at the 78.6% fib level known to be a key area of retracement.
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, price has showed more bullish structure as it respected a level of support at 19,311.7 along with the daily moving averages to complete its trend move from Low to High with a strong bullish candle. However, this High point signalled is currently only 500pips above the previous LH which as I mentioned is at a level of resistance. Similar to the previous LH signalled, price can retrace to signal HL a retest the previous lows.
10H TF
On the 10H chart we can see more clearly that the 10H HH signalled is currently forming a double top pattern until price gives a clear breakout of structure. This double top is an indication that price can retrace to complete the M pattern and signal a HL on the bigger TF.
Trading Plan for the week:
Monday and Tuesday are notoriously known for low volume and consolidation therefore I will not be taking any trades at the start of the week. Instead I will monitor price action for signs of retracements or breakout of structure for a clearer directional bias for the rest of the week.
Currently, my bias is bearish to signal HL on the bigger timeframes for the following reasons:
1. Since price signalled a Daily HL on August 4th, price has been very bullish only signalling a 4H HL once on Monday Sep 16th which respected a 23.6% fib level. The first week following the Daily HL price only signalled a 1H HL.
2. Price is at a strong area of resistance highlighted by the red zone where price previously retraced.
3. Price is currently at the 78.6% fib level on the weekly chart.
Since my bias is bearish, I am looking for to see wether price action will respect the retracement zone that I have highlighted in blue. Therefore, as long as price remains below 20,057.1 the retracement is valid to signal HL on the bigger TFs.
If not, then price will breakout of the weekly consolidation range maintaining its bullish strength by signalling a series of HLs on the 1H - 2H TFs to continue to ATHs.
Nasdaq Thoughts 23-Sept-2024Rise and shine, trading community! I'm sharing my Nasdaq trading zones today, loaded with possibilities. Explore these areas for inspiration on opening positions, but please keep in mind they're not trading signals. Use them wisely and at your own risk. Trade smart!
NAS100 9/23/24💹
👁️ Outlook
30m Context Time Frame: Price is looking very good above the emas coming off of the 200/50/20/10 and now surfing the 10/20. I personally want price to come closer to the 10/20 during NY session and see some type of pullback before looking for longs inside my lower time frames.
Daly Bias: Bullish but needs to pullback into the 10/20emas
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
Important Support and Resistance Points: 19582.6
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
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To summarize the explanation below,
The current strength to maintain the uptrend is weakening.
Therefore, the key is whether it can receive support and rise near 19582.6.
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(1W chart)
A new week has begun.
The key is whether it can receive support and continue the uptrend near 19582.6.
1. Check if ADX can rise above 25
2. Check if OBV can rise above the High Line
3. Check if StochRSI enters the overbought zone
4. Check if BW can touch the highest point (100)
If 1 and 2 are satisfied, the upward trend is expected to continue.
If 3 and 4 are satisfied, the high point zone is expected to be formed.
It does not immediately fall when the high point zone is formed,
- Check if ADX shows a downward trend or falls below 25
- Check if OBV falls below the High Line or shows a downward trend
When the above two conditions are satisfied, the decline is likely to begin.
At this time, the important thing to look at is whether there is support near 19582.6.
If it falls below 19582.6, it is likely to fall to around 17854.8.
The Fibonacci ratio shown on the left side of the chart is drawn in the first rising wave.
The Fibonacci ratio shown on the right side of the chart is drawn in the second rising wave.
Therefore, if it touches the Fibonacci ratio 1 (21137.6) on the right side, it is expected to pick up the trend again.
The second rising section is expected to be around the Fibonacci ratio 2.618 (23557.7) on the left side.
The long-term uptrend resumed on the week of March 13th as it broke through the M-Signal on the 1M chart.
Therefore, if it starts to fall, it is expected to show significant volatility by touching the M-Signal on the 1M chart.
Currently, the M-Signal on the 1M chart is rising around 17854.8.
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(1D chart)
StochRSI has touched the 100 point.
Accordingly, it is expected that even if it rises, it will eventually show a downward trend.
If it rises above 19582.6, I think it is highly likely to touch around 20313.8 and fall.
If not, it will turn into a downward trend.
At this time, what you need to check is
1. Whether ADX rises above 25.
2. Whether OBV is maintained above the high line or below the low line and remains.
If the above 1 and 2 are not satisfied, there is a possibility of forming a box section.
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Sometimes, there are people who strangely say that indicators from coin charts are used in stock charts.
Most indicators on charts have been created and used in the stock market for a long time.
I hope you know that they can be applied to all investment markets.
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Have a nice time.
Thank you.
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Stay Fluid In Trading Sigh , last week I tried a new strategy and it failed but I did adapt but this is the keys to learning and growing.
Instead of focusing on the wave count and the patterns, I’m going to go back to the beginning and focus on the structure of price. Price broke a previous high of 19,951.89. This level is key for liquidity for me wicks count for breaking structure
Like I stated in my previous idea that overall price was still bullish and the Feds lowering interest rates made positive results to the market
My forecast for the week is price to retest the previous high and sell short to an existing liquidity grab and to continue the bull run news can affect the markets so be mindful what’s going on this week
Monday s&p pmi
Wednesday new home sales , gdp
Thursday - durable goods , Powell speech , jobless claims , core price index
Friday - personal spending , good trade balance, Michigan consumer sentiment
Good luck to everyone this week. New Week New Money
