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Australian Dollar FuturesAA

Australian Dollar Futures

0.63865USDD
+0.00150+0.24%
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6A1! trade ideas

Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 2Hello everyone, i haven't been publishing much this week due to some platform migration issues. So, keeping my fingers cross that all will be resolved next week, Now, i'd just concentrate on delivering my educational series and hope to continue to benefit the trading public. In the first part, i shared a very simple momentum trading strategy. Simplicity works and allow you to make quick decisions if you are doing day trading. However, it does work on longer time frame as well. Do your own back testing and see how to make a strategy yours. So, after the strong up move, which i defined as the "impulse" move the instrument will come to a point where it loses the momentum. Profit taking, sellers taking up new positions, some news announcement whatever the case is. It doesn't really matter why. As a trader my thoughts are: "i want to go long assuming a longer uptrend is forming". Start to build a case around it. You can be on the sell side if you want to but my experiences tells me the chances of it going higher is there. What if it doesn't? Well, that is why I have a stop loss in place. So, if you refer to the chart above, the market is in the 3rd stage of the impulse move. Usually from the 3rd to 5th move, i don't bother too much until the uptrend line broke. So, the market has pierce through several structural resistances before a nice shooting star formation ended the impulse up move. Why do i still want to long? Again simplicity is at work. As long as the previous "New Structure High, Higher Low" remains intact my view does not change. There are tons of information which you can google on these terms. Feel free to study it. I'd be back on Part 2.1 with the actual trading plan as soon as possible! Till then, try to understand not the trading but how i shape my thinking before i trade it. Nothing is more important as developing the thought process.
AEducation
by trutt79
Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 1. (Education)This will be a relatively shorter post and is a follow up on Part 1 (phew.... Good for me and you LOL) So, i got this situation where there was a breakout on the 4 hour, mark with a dash line on the 1 hour. The first thing that came to my mind will be: A) I want to long B) I will not short even if there is a reversal (Unless 7700 is broken) C) Where will i long? What is my initial risk to reward? So, instead of chasing price action, i'd use a very simple method for a certain completion of the latest low. The key part to succeed here is you have to start watching the market and wait for a classical higher high higher low formation usually in the form of 2 candles. You might be asking "Don't you use some sort of indicator"? As a matter of fact, i rarely use it because i find it too troublesome. I'm watching a lot of markets and i'm not going to throw all my eggs in one trade. But if you want, i could use an ATR (for stop distance placement) or RSI (below 80 or above 20). That's it. So, after the formation of "higher high, higher low", my entry is 2 pips above its last high, and 3-5 pips below the swing low. Don't worry about it because my first target is usually conservative at 1:1 risk to reward and likely i'd take half or one third. No right or wrong but try to fix at predetermine amount to exit. The position size i take is never more then 2 percent of my equity but the actual size depend on the stop placement. Once this is achieved, i simply move my stop to break even and target 1:2 risk to reward. I may have exited fully or still have one third of position left. I'd simply trail it with swing highs and low. Remember the golden rule that stop can only move when it is meant to lock more profits then before. I felt this is a very simple way to trade and is easily executable by anyone although it does take a lot of practise to do so. Why rush anyway? Trading is a marathon and the longer you are in the race, the more you are likely to succeed! I hope this simple method helps you. Free free to drop me any questions i'd try to answer as much as possible!
AEducation
by trutt79
Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 1. (Education) Please ignore the previous post as I lost internet connection Dear all, as mentioned i not only want to share trading signals and ideals but more on my psychology. There are tons of signals and ideals just on this platform itself. I do not see I'm the best out there, nor am I not trying to be special or trying to sell something. I have always been wanting to contribute to the community and this is one of the best way to do it. The more I share, the more i learn as well. My view of a trading career is that it'd be one of the toughest endeavor you undertake in your life because you need to be constantly aware of your own emotions, keeping your actions in check and be patience. I mean, who can do this day to day? I can't for sure. There are countless days where emotions creep in and before I knew it, I did something totally contrary to my plan. My honest opinion is, I can never be perfect. What I do is to admit that and find ways to be better, but stop trying to be perfect because the market never is as well. HAHA. *** Please bear with my "English", I've a lot to improve on for myself on that. *** I'm breaking down this into a few series because it can be very dry to read all at one shot. OK, let me start by going back to the very beginning in which a 4 hour Bullish Bat is discovered. If I go to a larger time frame, we can see that A6 has been on an uptrend on a longer term basis when it broke 7700. Momentum was good. This move began on 13th July and lasted all the way to 27th. (The first part is dedicated to momentum and swing traders) It's always easy when we are conducting post mortem analysis on price action. Who can't see its an uptrend and we should go long? While that is true, there ain't much ways to learn besides that. I don't see much of a issue if, you already have a trade plan that encompass a entry, stop loss and viable risk to reward ratio. Such post mortem exercise are only useful if you do it in a meaningful way. So, with the beginning of the break on 7700, this instrument should already be on your radar. The first thing that comes into my mind is: 1) This breakout is confirmed as the close above 7700 is confirmed. You have to believe in it because you can't execute or take action if you don't. This is the point where previous false breakout creeps into your mind and says: "haha you are not going to fool me!". If you develop such habitual thinking, you are going to face a lot of execution problems and this is where many attempt to trade "tops" or reversals, in total contrary to a swing trade long. Trading requires a lot of muscle memory. To be successful trading momentum and swing, you must constantly cast away contradicting signals and focus on your predetermined swing or momentum quantifiers. Build it into your subconscious by practice. 2) Accept that the best plan will fail. Having said the first point, are we going to be stubborn and keep trading? The answer is no. You see, even the best get it wrong. So, I personally propose let the market decide on that. If you have a plan, you always have a stop loss. A stop loss is there to tell you to review your trade plan if you got stop out. By the way, if you have the habit of moving your stops, I'd suggest you practice to keep it. Personally, I only move stops when my trade becomes profitable. Once an entry is triggered, believe in your plan and let the market decide. 3) Do not be greedy. Again, I cannot emphasize enough on sticking to the plan. In the last 10 years, greed has been one of the emotions that affects my trades a lot. Who doesn't want a winner? Umpteen times with good profits I failed to capture and ended up being stop out. "Revenge" is sweet. The vicious cycle of doubling up, moving my stop loss began and by the time I realize it, I had a big loss. So, when you enter the market, a stop loss and profit targets is a must.
AEducation
by trutt79
Breakout or reversal? Pardon me for not cleaning up the chart because I want to use it as a form of reminder how precarious trading can be if I am too obstinate on certain directions in the market and how fast market can change its opinion. Ok, now for A6, i'm ready to take a trade if there is a lower high lower low candle being form on the 1 hour. In classical candlestick reading, i'd need a 3 bar formation which confirms a reversal, place my stop above the high. I'd first target the nearest support and then the next one. This is a counter trend trade with higher risk but if you want to trade it go ahead.
AShort
by trutt79
A nice short term channel to short - 1hr/15min + Bullish Bat There is an underneath nice Bullish bat on the 4 hour, and a bearish channel to trade on short term. Here is how i picture it: Short the AUD/USD with 15min and plan for a longer term entry as the downward channel leads price to the Bullish Bat pattern. My trading on the channel is a vision that price gets overbought on the high of the channel, coupled with RSI overbought or, a structure short level. On the Bullish Bat, stop is below point X, and target is along 38.2% and 61.8% retracement from entry D point back to C point.
A
by trutt79
1
Australian Dollar: Bearish Bat Near the Top of StructureThis bearish bat completes at the top of the daily structure, which is also the PRZ of the larger bearish bat that completed 06/29 and already hit its first target. The RSI is currently in overbought territory -- bearish divergence and a crossing down below the 70 line would be a nice confluence to this trade. The trend has been bullish so it is important to wait for price action signals before taking action.
AShort
by SharkbaitAl
March AUDThere is a large head and shoulders developing on the USD index that should in the coming weeks propel the AUD, CAD, NZD, BPD, EUD, upward. The left shoulder and head have been created. Looking for the right shoulder in the next two weeks. Elliotwave was breached in the last two days by having position 4 enter position 1s territory. Gartley pattern still intact. Could be a small 38.2 retracement before rising. Depending on where the neckline is on the USD shoulder comes will dictate how much further AUD will fall. AB leg of the Gartley may also not be complete. Could run higher.
ALong
by hopscotch
E-Micro AUD Short on the Daily ChartWe just had the first retracement back to the 50 SMA and a nice downward movement to a demand zone with a 76.40% Fib Ext. If the pull back takes place now then look to short at the Supply Zone around the 50% Fib Retracement level which is also a 38.20% Fib Ext cluster. But if price keeps dropping we could hit S2 floor trader pivot which would also be a measured move or hit the second Demand Zone show below that has a S3 FTP as well as a 138.20% Fib Ext. Look for the pull back off one of these three points and take the trade short useing your chosen method of entry, stop and target.
MShort
by ChristopherJuliano
MG1! Short using multiple time frame analysisI am looking at the set up on the long term chart (daily). Using the 50 SMA as the dominant energy to show the trend which is down. We are seeing the first retracement back to the 50 SMA. A triple cross on the stochastic with %k and %D facing down and at the top of the cycle. We have Mom down on the medium and chart as well as %K and %D. Unfortunately I wanted to set the entry point on the short term chart (60) when %K and %D where angling down but user error prevented me from doing so. I feel confident with my stop which is just above the structure high. The target will be taken on the long term chart to maximize profits just above the S1 floor trader pivot.
MShort
by ChristopherJuliano
1