Building a case to long Euro
Trading is similar to investigative work. At this point and time, I do not know the high is formed or not
but it's ok since I trade pull backs and I want to illustrate how I use various perspective to gather
evidence to substantiate a trade.
So, if the current high is at 1.2082, what I'd do is to wait for Euro to pullback to the zone highlighted in
Blue. I am willing to take a trade because
A) Risk to reward is in my favor
B) This blue zone will hold if the evidence point conclusively to long
C) I do not have to guess where the breakout ends and is not stress
It works for me because I have time to build my trade plan, knowing the risk to reward is in my favor,
and of course your own statistics of win/loss ratio that it becomes "easy to manage". I may still get
it wrong after waiting but the result of this trade itself does not determine the long term outcome of
your equity curve. As long you adopt certain mindset that winning and losing is part of the game, you
are ahead of the game.
6E1! trade ideas
Building a case to long Euro
Trading is similar to investigative work. I gather evidence to substantiate a claim and this is how I do it.
Euro, having break new high's continue to gather pace in bullish momentum. The reason I don't trade
breakout is I could not quantify how much the move is going to be. The traditional way is to measure
harmonic moves and expect the current move to match previous move, but I find this method ineffective
as it was before. You could also try fib extension, Atr etc for your exits.
I am just more comfortable (a point I keep bringing up) sitting back and wait. Thus, I have time to gather
a bullish case for Euro (E6) and will consider taking a position once I see it retrace to 61.8% and above.
The bulls must be able to hold its previous bullish structure. If I get in, my stop is 5 - 10 pips below the
blue zone highlighted.
I don't place an arbitrary figure on how far your stop should be place but do note that the shorter time
frame you trade, the lesser allowance you have as the risk to reward will not be in your favor. Take
your time to experience this and slowly you get my point.
E61! - Short Strangle 09.06.2017Since the EURO did not break out after the first election in Europe, and the Commercals being neither long nor short, I tend to sell a strangle expecting the EURO to move sideways.
Euro is ready for the takeoffThe US Dollar is now under pressure again. The probability of interest rate hike in September is very small. Nothing prevents Euro from testing psychological 1.2 level. Open interest for Euro fx future contract expiring in September had increased more than 2% (93331 contracts) on Friday.
I consider placing a long trade from a pullback, or in case it doesn't happen, going in the direction of an upside breakout.
Simple Pullbacks will do on EUR
All i need to trade on EUR/USD will be a pullback to this bullish structure which ideally
gives a good risk to reward as well as, the uptrend will remain intact Most of the time
when there is a trend you rarely will see Patterns to trade and you can plan for breakout
as well.
euro/usd RANGEEuro has been in a range 1.06-1.15 for two years. We are again on the top of the range. Look for selling opportunities. Probability H.
Long EURRUB - mid term setupLooking forward for a reversal in Euro / Ruble pair in a short time around low 60s levels.
Watching for a MA(14), as even 1 bar breakout can result a change of movement.
To be continue with UPDs after mid-March expiration.
Our initial target is at 80 lvl.
EUR/USD arrived at targetEUR/USD arrived at target
Now small withdrawal to 1,146
and then resumed to 1,15
Eur/usd rises up today and tries to break the bearish channelEuro rises up today and tries to break the bearish multi-day channel
Long to pivot break with hourly candle
EUR / USD E6U17 - Sep '17
CROC X1 - Supports / Resistors - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3 = 1.1461
R2 = 1.143
R1 = 1,142
PIVOT = 1,140
S1 = 1,138
S2 = 1,138
S3 = 1.135
CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D)
LONG from 1,0704
From 05/04/2017
Eur/usd rises up today and tries to break the bearish channel
Euro rises up today and tries to break the bearish multi-day channel
Long to pivot break with hourly candle
EUR / USD E6U17 - Sep '17
CROC X1 - Supports / Resistors - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3 = 1.1461
R2 = 1.143
R1 = 1,142
PIVOT = 1,140
S1 = 1,138
S2 = 1,138
S3 = 1.135
CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D)
LONG from 1,0704
From 05/04/2017
EURUSD has RSI divergence on daily chartWe have RSI divergence on the daily chart for the EURUSD. It's a warning signal that the move higher may be stretched. Combined with the ECB event risk, it might be a good time to lighten positions.
Euro Futures: Bearish BatSharkHere is a nice confluence of a bearish BatShark along with RSI and AO divergence. I have entered short with some targets marked on the chart but will watch price action in each target area to decide whether to take profits, move stops or even reverse position (in the case of the bullish 5-0 pattern).
As per my new strategy I will be moving stops to breakeven after I am up some pips, and look to re-enter higher when price action gives another good signal if I am stopped out.
If you have any comments or feedback on this idea or your own view on the Euro, please feel free to share!
Euro rally post French Election.Post French elections the Euro will rally a bit with resistance in the 1.13-1.14 level. The establishment feels the Euro is now safe that populism has been thwarted. This pushes the decline and collapse of the euro down the road a bit.
Took position yesterday with calls at Jun 17 @ 1.115
Short Call Option on Euro Futures (71% probability trade)With 66 days to expiration (July 8) I sold the 1.11 Call on the Euro futures for .0092, which gives me a max profit of $1,150. I will look to close it at 50% of that.
This gives me a 2.4% buffer to the upside and a 71% probability of profit.
Implied Volatility Rank Indicator (IVR)When trading future options, you dont have built in implied volatility. You need to calculate the IV by calculating (volaCloseToday - volaLowest-52weeks)/(volaHighest-52weeks - volaLowest-52weeks). If the IVR is above 40%, then you should think about checking options premium, since premium is currently higher as in former days. In order to see, whether the Volatility Rank is above 40, the color of the line is green when over 40 or red if IVR is under 40.
