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USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Calendar FuturesUU

USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Calendar Futures

896.50USDD
−13.25−1.46%
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CPO1! trade ideas

6/5/25 Can Bears Create More FT Selling or Fail to Do So? Monday's candlestick (May 5) was a bull doji closing near its high with a long tail below. It has the shape of a bull reversal bar, but the candlestick has a small bull body. In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bears could create more follow-through selling breaking below the April 22 low. If there is a breakout, traders will see if there are strong follow-through selling. Or would the market form a pullback towards the 20-day EMA over the next few days instead? The market gapped down and broke below January's low. While there was some follow-through selling, the long tail below the candlestick and the bull body indicate the bears are not as strong as they hope to be. The bears want a a strong breakout below the April 22 January low followed by a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range which would take the market to the 3200 area. The long tail below the last two candlesticks indicates profit-taking activity as prices probe lower. The bears must create a strong breakout below January's low with follow-through selling to increase the odds of a successful breakout. If the market trades higher, they want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance and form a double top bear flag with the April 25 high. The bulls want a reversal from a double bottom (with the January low). They want a failed breakout and a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal. As strong as the current selling is, the bulls see it as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range. They hope the bottom of the trading range will act as support. They see Monday's candlestick possibly acting as a signal bar. They must create a strong entry bar with follow-through buying to increase the odds of testing the 20-day EMA. The market broke out below the January low on Monday, but the candlestick closed near its high and had a bull body with a long tail below. It was not a strong breakout bar. Traders want to see if the bears could create sustained follow-through selling. Or will the market stall below the January low and form a pullback towards the 20-day EMA instead? So far in the night session, the market traded above yesterday's high but reversed into a small bear bar. For tomorrow (Tuesday, 6/5/25), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling below the January low. Or will the market form a small retest of yesterday's low (but possibly forming a higher low), but stall and trade higher instead? The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range. That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling. Breakout from trading ranges can fail and odds slightly favor the trading range to continue. Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
2
7/5/25 - Bears Got FT Selling, Can Get Dangerous Tuesday's candlestick (May 6) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with small tails. In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bears can create more follow-through selling below the January low, or if the market would form a small retest of yesterday's low (but possibly a higher low), but stall and trade higher instead. Bulls attempted to create intraday reversals but the follow-through buying was limited. The market closed as a bear bar for the day. The bears want a strong breakout below the January low followed by a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range which would take the market to the 3200 area. In the night market session, the candlestick is currently a bear bar trading near its low, and below Monday's low. If the bears can get strong consecutive bear bars, that would increase the odds of a successful breakout. The bulls want a reversal from a double bottom (with the January low). They want a failed breakout and a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal. They hope the bottom of the trading range will act as support. They must create strong bull bars over the next several days to increase the odd of a failed breakout. The market broke out below the January low on Monday. The bulls attempted to create a failed breakout on Tuesday but the follow-through buying is still limited. Traders want to see if the bears can create sustained follow-through selling over the next several days. If they can do that, the odds of a successful breakout and a measured move will increase. So far in the night session, the candlestick is a follow-through bear bar trading below Monday's low. For tomorrow (Wednesday, 7/5/25), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling below the January low. Or will the candlestick close with a long tail below or a bull body? If this is the case, especially if the bulls can create follow-through buying over the next several days, they could swing the odds to a failed breakout. Andrew
M
by Tech_Trader88
2
FCPO Week 18 2025: 50-50.Last week price failed to make a new low but instead making a push higher. It might hint that the trend is shifting to bullish but at the current moment it is 50-50. A big bearish key reversal on Friday might indicate that bearish is not done yet. Furthermore look at the weekly candle. The upper and lower wicks are about the same length and the body is more or less in the middle. Next week price action in the 50-50 area might give a clue on where price will go next. However only a close higher or lower of the current high and low of the area will provide confirmation of the future price movement.
M
by edramlan
1
28/5/25 - Can Bears Get a Strong Retest of the Low? FCPO Friday's candlestick (Apr 25) was a bull doji closing in its lower half with a long tail above. In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create another follow-through bull bar testing near the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade slightly higher but stall around the 4050-4080 area or the 20-day EMA area and reverse lower, forming a retest of the April 22 low instead. The market gapped up on Friday morning trading far above the 20-day EMA, but reversed to close below it. The bears see the current move as a pullback following the climactic selloff and oversold conditions. They want the 4050-80 area or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance. They want at least a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range (AFTER the pullback). At the least, they want a small sideways to down leg to retest the April 22 low, even if it only forms a higher low. The bears must create a strong follow-through bear bar on Monday to increase the odds of another leg down. The bulls got a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 22) and a lower low major trend reversal. They hope to get a 2-legged pullback closing above the 20-day EMA. The market traded above the 20-day EMA on Friday but reversed to close below it. The bulls are not yet as strong as they hoped to be. If the market trades lower, they want it to form a higher low (vs Apr 22) and a double bottom (Apr 22) followed by a second leg sideways to up. They want any retest of the April 22 low to be weak, sideways and with poor follow-through selling. The bulls want a TBTL - Ten Bars, Two Legs pullback. That means they want a second leg sideways to up after a pullback. The selloff from April 2 to April 22 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down to retest the April 22 low (AFTER the current pullback), even if it forms a higher low. Perhaps we may see the retest of the April 22 low early next week. If the market forms a retest of the April 22 low, traders will see the strength of the selling. If strong, traders may expect a breakout attempt below the April 22 low. If it is weak, we may see more profit-taking from the bears moving forward, followed by a larger second leg sideways to up after that. For tomorrow (28/4/25), traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear entry bar closing near its low. Or will the market trade slightly lower, but lack strong follow-through selling, closing the candlestick with a long tail below or a bull body instead? The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range. That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling. Andrew
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by Tech_Trader88
8/5/25 - More Strong FT Selling or Profit Taking Soon? FCPO Wednesday's candlestick (May 7) was a bear bar closing near its low. In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bears could create more follow-through selling below the January low, or if the candlestick closes with a long tail below or a bull body instead. The bears continue to get follow-through selling below the January low. The bears want a strong breakout below the January low, followed by a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range, which would take the market to the 3200 area. In the night market session, the candlestick is currently a small bear bar trading near its low, and near Wednesday's low. If the bears can get strong consecutive bear bars, that would increase the odds of a successful breakout. The bulls want a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal and a wedge pattern (Apr 9, Apr 22, and May 8). They hope to get at least a small two-legged sideways to up pullback lasting a few days soon. They must create strong bull bars over the next several days to increase the odds of a failed breakout. The market broke out below the January low on Monday with follow-through selling on Tuesday and Wednesday. The market could still trade at least a little lower tomorrow. Traders want to see if the bears can create sustained follow-through selling over the next several days. If they can do that, the odds of a successful breakout and a measured move will increase. So far in the night session, the candlestick is a small bear bar trading near its low. For tomorrow (Thursday, 8/5/25), traders will see if the bears can create another follow-through bear bar. Or will the market trade lower, but the candlestick closes with a long tail below or a bull body? The bulls need to do more to show they're back in control. So far, they haven't been able to do so. Andrew
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by Tech_Trader88
5/5/25 - More FT Selling or Pullback to 20-day EMA? FCPO Friday's candlestick (May 2) was an outside bear bar closing in its lower half with a long tail below. In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bears could create a retest and breakout attempt below the April 22 low and if there is a breakout, traders would see if there are strong follow-through selling. Or would the market form a pullback towards the 20-day EMA over the next few days instead? The market opened higher but reversed to break below the April 22 low. However, the market reversed off the low, closing above the April 22 low. The bears want a a strong breakout below the April 22 low followed by a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range which would take the market to the 3200 area. The long tail below Friday's candlestick indicates the breakout is not yet as strong as the bears hope to be. The bears must create a strong breakout with follow-through selling to increase the odds of a successful breakout. If the market trades higher, they want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance and form a double top bear flag with the April 25 high. The bulls want a reversal from a double bottom (Apr 22). They want a failed breakout and a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal. As strong as the current selling is, the bulls see it as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range. They hope the bottom of the trading range will act as support. They must create strong bull bars trading far above the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control. Traders expect a small sideways to down leg to retest the April 22 low. They got what they wanted. Next, traders want to see if the bears could create a breakout below the April 22 low with sustained follow-through selling. Or will the market form a pullback towards the 20-day EMA instead? If this is the case, traders will see the move's strength. Will it be strong and close far above the 20-day EMA? Or will the market stall at the 20-day EMA again, forming a double top bear flag? For tomorrow (Monday, 5/5/25), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling breaking below the April 22 low. If there is a breakout, traders will see if there are strong follow-through selling. Or will the market form a pullback towards the 20-day EMA over the next few days instead? The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range. That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling. Breakout from trading ranges can fail and odds slightly favor the trading range to continue. Andrew
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by Tech_Trader88
24) FCPO : downtrend and within the rangeupdate frm 23), I have stopped for almost two months...I will continue updating if got any time...the rest of the time is well-spent for making money. haha fcpo-july is in downtrend. the range is within the range from 3840 support and 3960 resistance. See if price come back to these regions then we can make some fine decisions to either long or short. PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun. #tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
MShort
by HAIDOJO_trading
1/5/25 Pullback or Will Bears Get Follow-through Selling? FCPO Wednesday's candlestick (Apr 30) was a bear bar closing around the middle of its range with a long tail below. In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bears could create a retest and breakout attempt below the April 22 low or if Wednesday's candlestick would close with a long tail below instead (if this is the case, it will indicate some profit-taking around the trading range low (3850 area)). The market did not break out below the April 22 low and the candlestick closed with a long tail below. The bears want a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range. The bears must create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a successful breakout. If the market trades higher over the next several days, they want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance and form a double top bear flag with the April 25 high. The bulls want the current move to form a higher low (vs Apr 22) and a double bottom (Apr 22). If the market trades below the April 22 low, they want a failed breakout and a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal. As strong as the current selling is, the bulls see it as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range. They hope the bottom of the trading range will act as support. They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control. Traders expect at least a small sideways to down leg to retest the April 22 low. They got what they wanted. Next, traders want to see if the bears could create a breakout below the April 22 low with sustained follow-through selling. If the market trades higher, they will see the move's strength and whether it will form a lower high to April 25 high, forming a double top bear flag. For tomorrow (Friday, 2/5/25), traders will see if the bears can create a retest and breakout attempt below the April 22 low. If there is a breakout, traders will see if there are strong follow-through selling. Or will the market form a pullback towards the 20-day EMA over the next few days instead? The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range. That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling. Breakout from trading ranges can fail and odds slightly favor the trading range to continue. Andrew
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by Tech_Trader88
30/4/25 - Can Bears Get a Breakout with FT Selling? FCPO Yesterday's candlestick (Apr 29) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a small tail below. In our previous report, we said traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar. If they do, it could lead to a retest and breakout attempt below the April 22 low. The bears got a follow-through bear bar on Tuesday. They want a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range. If there is a breakout below the April 22 low, the bears must create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a successful breakout. The bulls want the current move to form a higher low (vs Apr 22) and a double bottom (Apr 22). If the market trades below the April 22 low, they want a failed breakout and a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal. As strong as the current selling is, the bulls see it as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range. They hope the bottom of the trading range will act as support. They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control. The selloff from April 2 to April 22 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down to retest the April 22 low. It is currently underway. Traders will see the strength of the move. If strong, traders may expect a breakout attempt below the April 22 low. So far, the move appears strong. The market formed another bear bar in the night market testing near the April 22 low (just 25 points away from the low). For tomorrow (30/4/25), traders will see if the bears can create a retest and breakout attempt below the April 22 low. If there is a breakout, traders will see if there will be strong follow-through selling. Or will Wednesday's candlestick close with a long tail below instead? If this is the case, it will indicate some profit-taking around the trading range low (3850 area). The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range. That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling. Breakout from trading ranges can fail and odds slightly favor the trading range to continue. Andrew
M
by Tech_Trader88
29/4/25 Can Bears Get FT Bear Bar or Fail to Do So? FCPO Yesterday's candlestick (Apr 28) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a prominent tail below. In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bears can create a strong bear entry bar closing near its low, or if the market would trade slightly lower, but lack strong follow-through selling, closing the candlestick with a long tail below or a bull body instead. The market gapped down and formed a strong bear entry bar. The bears want a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range (AFTER the pullback). The bears must create a strong follow-through bear bar on Tuesday to increase the odds of a retest and breakout below the April 22 low. If the market trades higher over the next several days, they want it to form a lower high (vs Apr 25), forming a double top bear flag. The bulls want a larger second leg sideways to up after the current pullback. They want the current move to form a higher low (vs Apr 22), a double bottom (Apr 22), and a higher low major trend reversal. They want the current pullback to be weak, sideways and with poor follow-through selling. The selloff from April 2 to April 22 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down to retest the April 22 low. It is currently underway. Traders will see the strength of the move. If strong, traders may expect a breakout attempt below the April 22 low. If it is weak, we may see more profit-taking from the bears moving forward, followed by a larger second leg sideways to up after that. So far, the market gapped up in the night market and is an inside bull bar. For tomorrow (29/4/25), traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar. If they do, it could lead to a retest and breakout attempt below the April 22 low. Or will the market close as a bull bar instead? If this is the case, especially if it is a strong bull bar, it could lead to further profit-taking from the bears. The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range. That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling. Andrew
M
by Tech_Trader88
25/4/25 FCPO Can Bull Get A Strong Retest of The 20-Day EMA? Yesterday's candlestick (Apr 24) was an inside bull doji. In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create another follow-through bull bar testing near the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade slightly higher but stall around the 4050-4080 area or the 20-day EMA and reverse lower, forming a retest of the April 22 low instead. The market traded in a small range throughout the whole day. The bears see the current move as a pullback following the climactic selloff and oversold conditions. They want the 4050-80 area or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance. They want at least a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range (AFTER the pullback). At the least, they want a small sideways to down leg to retest the April 22 low, even if it only forms a higher low. The bulls see the recent selloff as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range. They got a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 22) and a lower low major trend reversal. They hope to get a 2-legged pullback testing near the 20-day EMA. The move could be underway. They must continue to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a reversal. If the market trades lower, they want it to form a higher low (vs Apr 22) and a double bottom (Apr 22) followed by a second leg sideways to up. The market is currently forming a sideways to up pullback. The bulls want a TBTL - Ten Bars, Two Legs pullback. That means they want any pullback to be minor followed by a second leg sideways to up after that. The selloff from April 2 to April 22 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down to retest the April 22 low (AFTER the current pullback), even if it forms a higher low. Will it happen within the next few days? If the market forms a retest of the April 22 low, traders will see the strength of the selling. If it is strong, traders may expect a breakout attempt below the April 22 low. If it is weak, we may see more profit-taking from the bears moving forward, followed by more sideways to up trading afterwards. For tomorrow (25/4/25), traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar testing near the 20-day EMA. So far in the night market, the candlestick is a small bull doji trading slightly higher for the day. Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around the 4050-4080 area or the 20-day EMA area and reverse lower, forming a retest of the April 22 low instead? The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range. That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling. Andrew
M
by Tech_Trader88
24/4/25 FCPO Daily - Bull FT Bull Bar, or Retest of Apr 22 Low? Yesterday's candlestick (Apr 23) was a big bull car closing in its upper half with a prominent tail below. In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bulls can create a strong follow-through bull bar (it could start a 2-legged sideways to up pullback phase) or if the market would lack follow-through buying instead. The market formed a strong follow-through bull bar testing the 4050-80 area. The bears see the current move as a pullback following the climactic selloff and oversold conditions. They want the 4050-80 area or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance. They want at least a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range. At the least, they want a small sideways to down leg to retest the April 22 low, even if it only forms a higher low. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 22) and a lower low major trend reversal. They see the recent selloff as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range. They hope to get a 2-legged pullback testing near the 20-day EMA. They must continue to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a reversal. If the market trades lower, they want it to form a higher low (vs Apr 22) and a double bottom (Apr 22). So far, the selloff from April 2 to April 22 was in a tight bear channel which means strong bears. The move is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down to retest the April 22 low (AFTER the current pullback), even if it forms a higher low. Will it happen within the next few days? If the market forms a retest of the April 22 low, traders will see the strength of the selling. If it is strong, traders may expect a retest followed by a breakout attempt below the April 22 low. If it is weak, we may see more profit-taking from the bears moving forward, followed by more sideways to up trading afterwards. For tomorrow, traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar testing near the 20-day EMA. Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around the 4050-4080 area or the 20-day EMA and reverse lower, forming a retest of the April 22 low instead? The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range. That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling. Andrew
M
by Tech_Trader88
23/4/25 FCPO Bulls Need Strong Follow-through Buying Today Yesterday's candlestick was a bull reversal closing near its high with a long tail below. In our previous report, we said traders would to see if the bears can create a strong retest of the 3850-3800 area and close (yesterday) as a strong bear bar near its low, or if the candlestick would close with a long tail below and above the middle of its range instead. The market tested near the 3850 area but reversed to close as a strong bull bar. The bears couldn't get a strong bear bar after testing the 3850-00 support area. They got a strong second leg sideways to down (Apr 14 to Apr 22) to retest the January low. They hope to get a breakout below the January low followed by a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range. For that, they must create a strong breakout below 3850-00 with strong follow-through selling. If the market trades higher, they want the 4000 or 4050-80 area or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance followed by at least a small retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22, even if it only forms a higher low). The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 22) and a lower low major trend reversal. They see the current move as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range. They hope that the 3850 trading range low area will act as support. If the market trades lower, they want a failed breakout below the 3850 area. Since yesterday's candlestick was a bull reversal bar closing near its high, the bulls need to create strong follow-through buying tomorrow to increase the odds of a retest of the 4000-4080 area or the 20-day EMA. If the bulls can create a strong follow-through bull bar, it could start a 2-legged sideways to up pullback phase. Or will the market lack follow-through buying instead? If this is the case, that would indicate that the bulls are not yet strong. The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range. That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
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by Tech_Trader88
FCPO 22 April 2025 - Breakout With Follow-through Selling Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar near its low. In our previous report, we said the odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower. Traders would to see if the bears could create a follow-through bear bar to confirm the breakout below the 4000 level. If they do, we may see a retest of the January low around the 3850-3800 area. The bears got a follow-through bear bar and the night session also traded lower and has tested near the 3860 area. The bears want a retest of the January low. They got what they wanted. They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low. They hope to get a strong breakout below the January low area to test the 3800 area. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 21) and a lower low major trend reversal. The problem with the bull's case is that they couldn't create strong bull bars with follow-through buying. They see the current move as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range. If the market trades lower, they want a failed breakout below the 3850 area. They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control. Exports for the first 20 days are up ITS: 11.89%, AmSpec: 18.5%. Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet. Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market. The market remains Always In Short. So far, the move down since April 1 is in a tight bear channel with strong bear bars. The selling pressure is stronger than the buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying). The breakout below the April 16 low is strong with follow-through selling. Traders want to see if the bears can create a strong retest of the 3850-3800 area and close tomorrow as a strong bear bar near its low. Or will the candlestick close with a long tail below and above the middle of its range instead? If there is a climactic spike down, traders will see if there will be profit-taking activity after that (over the next several days). For now, odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower. Traders will see if the 3800-50 area can act as support or if the market will break down below with strength.
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by Tech_Trader88
FCPO / Crude Palm Oil - 21 April 2025 Daily Chart Analysis Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar near its low with a prominent tail above. In our previous report, we said the market formed a tight trading range in the last 3-4 days (small yellow box). The market is in breakout mode. Traders will wait for a breakout from either direction and trade in the direction of the breakout. The market formed a breakout below the 4000 on Friday. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 18) and a lower low major trend reversal. The problem with the bull's case is that they couldn't create bull bars with follow-through buying. They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control. The bears want a retest of the January low. They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low. They got a breakout below the April 16 low on Friday. They need to create sustained follow-through selling to increase the odds of a measured move down. Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%. Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet. Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market. The market remains Always In Short. So far, the move down since April 1 is in a tight bear channel with strong bear bars. The selling pressure is stronger than the buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying). Because this week closed near its low, the market may gap down next week. Small gaps usually close early. Traders want to see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar to confirm the breakout below the 4000 level. If they can create follow-through selling, we may see a retest of the January low around the 3850-3800 area. Or will the market lack follow-through selling, and reverse back above 4000 instead? For now, odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower.
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by Tech_Trader88
FCPO / Crude Palm Oil CPO 18 April 2025 Daily Chart Analysis Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar near its low with a long tail below. In our previous report, we said the bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area. The market traded above the prior day's high (16 April) but the follow-through buying was limited. The market then reversed to close near its low. Currently, in the night session, the market gapped up and is an inside bull bar with a prominent tail above. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 16) and a lower low major trend reversal. While the market traded higher today (April 17), the bulls couldn't create sustained follow-through buying. They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a retest of the 20-day EMA or the April 10 high. They hope tomorrow (Friday) will close as a strong bull bar so the weekly candlestick will have a long tail below and close above the middle of its range. The bears want a retest of the January low. They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low. They see the current move forming a double top bear flag (April 15 and April 17). They want a strong retest of the April 16 low, followed by a strong breakout below. They want a big bear bar closing near its low tomorrow (Friday) so that the weekly candlestick will be a strong bear bar. If this is the case, the odds of the market trading at least a little lower the following week will increase. Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%. Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet. Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market. The market remains Always In Short. The recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold. However, the bulls attempted to create reversals in the last 2 days but both times had limited follow-through buying, with the market reversing to close lower. The bulls are not yet strong. The move down since April 10 has a lot of overlapping candlestick. (see the 4 hr chart below). While the tight bear channel means persistent selling, the overlapping candlesticks indicate a weaker down phase than the first leg down (April 2 to April 9). The market formed a tight trading range in the last 3-4 days (small yellow box). The market is in breakout mode. Traders will wait for a breakout from either direction and trade in the direction of the breakout. Until then, traders may continue to Buy Low and Sell High (between 4000 and 4080). The U.S. market will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. For now, traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear bar breaking below the April 16 low. Or will the market trade sideways followed by a retest and breakout above the 4080 level instead?
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by Tech_Trader88
FCPO - Crude Palm Oil 17/4/2025 Daily Chart Market Analysis Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar in its lower half with a small tail below. We said that the recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold. Perhaps we may see a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area? The market attempted to reverse higher but sold off in the last 30 minutes. Currently, the candlestick is a small bull inside doji. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 16) and a small double bottom (Apr 9 and Apr 16) They see the current move simply as a retest of the April 9 low and want a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal. They see the last 3 trading days forming a micro wedge (Apr 14, Apr 15, and Apr 16). They must create strong bull bars with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a TBTL (Ten Bars, Two Legs) pullback. They want a retest of the 20-day EMA or the April 10 high. The bears want a retest of the January low. They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low. If the market trades higher, they want the April 10 high or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, followed by a reversal from a double-top bear flag. Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%. Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet. Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market. The market remains Always In Short. The recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold. The move down since April 10 has a lot of overlapping candlestick. (see the 4 hr chart below). While the tight bear channel means persistent selling, the overlapping candlesticks indicate a weaker down phase than the first leg down (April 2 to April 9). The bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area. So far, they have not yet been able to do so. If the bears get a strong breakout below the April 9 low with strong follow-through selling instead, the odds of a retest of the 3850-3900 area will increase. Let's monitor the buying/selling pressure tomorrow. Possible resistance area to pay attention: around the 4040-50 to 4070 area.
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by Tech_Trader88
FCPO 16 April 2025 - Palm Oil Daily Chart Analysis Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar in its lower half with a prominent tail below. Currently, the market is a small bull inside bar trading near its high. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 15) and a small double bottom (Apr 9 and Apr 15) They see yesterday's move simply as a retest of the April 9 low and want a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal. They must create strong bull bars with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a TBTL (Ten Bars, Two Legs) pullback. They want a retest of the 20-day EMA. The bears want a retest of the January low. They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low. If the market trades higher, they want the April 10 high or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, followed by a reversal from a double-top bear flag. Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%. Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet. Refineries' appetite to buy physical looks lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market. The market remains Always In Short. The recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold. Perhaps we may see a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area? Let's monitor the buying/selling pressure and if the bulls can create strong follow-through buying tomorrow.
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by Tech_Trader88
FCPO WEEK 16 2025: 50-50 price action.There is an argument for bullish price next week. However as it stands now the price is still in the 50-50 price action. There is not enough argument to confirm bullish movement. Meaning there is possibility also that it might go south next week. Scenario 1: If price stays above the 4000 and push higher then it will be bullish. Possibly towards 4500. Scenario 2: If price move below and stays below 4000 then bearish is back in control to push price possibility towards 3700. Start of the week it will be reactive mode.
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by edramlan
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