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Ethereum Futures (Jan 2025)Ethereum Futures (Jan 2025)Ethereum Futures (Jan 2025)

Ethereum Futures (Jan 2025)

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ETHF2025 trade ideas

Ethereum - CME Gap yet to be filled#ETH/USDT #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- + As shown in the chart, the Bitcoin CME futures gap is still unfilled. + This gap was created during the sudden market crash driven by recession fears. + Historically, 90% of CME gaps get filled sooner or later, and we expect the same outcome in this case. + Currently, the ETH price is around the support zone, and it appears to have recovered after hitting this level. + It's likely this gap will be filled in September, as it is typically a bearish month, but it should certainly be filled before the end of October. --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
CME:ETH1!Long
by VectorAlgo
Nine Spot ETFs Plunge ETH Prices. Will ETH Tank Further?The SEC approved the listing of nine spot ETH ETFs on 23/July. The launch of these ETFs was expected to drive capital flows with spot buying. But it didn’t. ETH prices plunged by 9% over the following two days. Crucially, the decline in the ETH/BTC ratio was a similar 9% as BTC remained resilient. Following what appears to be a sell-the-news event, the outlook for ETH remains mixed as GETH outflows are more than offsetting inflows to the other ETFs. The sharp price decline offers a buying opportunity. Take caution as the risk of further decline persists. Implied Volatility (IV) on puts increased while IV on call declined after spot ETF approvals. ETH ETF APPROVAL ACCOMPANIED BY PRICE DECLINE The SEC provided final approval for eight spot ETH ETFs to trade while also allowing the conversion of the ETHE trust to a spot ETF, making it nine spot ETH ETFs in total. Source: Farside ETH prices dropped by 1.3% on launch day clearly marking a "sell the news" event. ETH plunged nearly 9% over the next two days, returning to its 20/May levels. This earlier date in May marked the onset of rumors about the SEC's likely approval as covered previously . Crucially, the ETH/BTC ratio also declined, highlighting the specific negative impact on ETH distinct from the broader crypto market. OUTFLOWS FROM GRAYSCALE ETHEREUM TRUST DOMINATE NET ETF FLOWS ETH prices were pressured down by massive net outflows led by fund movement out from Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) chiefly due to steep expense ratio. These outflows far outpaced the inflows to other ETFs. Source: Farside Grayscale offers a lower cost alternative in the mini ETH ETF (ETH), inflows into it are small and inadequate to stem the outflow from the much larger ETHE. Launch of Spot BTC ETFs caused outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). Investors then switched over to lower cost ETFs. This time though, the net effect on ETH ETFs has been much more negative. Crucially, outflows from GBTC continued for almost four months after spot ETF launch. ETHE outflows could also continue for a considerable period, dominating net flows in spot ETH ETFs for the foreseeable future. CALL IV HAS DECLINED FOLLOWING ETF LAUNCH IV skew for 25-delta options showed that calls were far more expensive than puts. This reversed sharply after the ETF launch on 24/July, making puts expensive relative to calls, signaling rising fears of pain for ETH prices in the near term. Source: CME QuikVol Though ATM IV has dipped somewhat following approval, it still remains elevated from last month. Source: CME QuikVol HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP ETH ETF launch has been a stark sell-the-news event. Prices have reversed gains. While spot buying may drive positive price action, recent flow analysis from ETH ETFs shows outflows from ETHE dominating. Like GBTC, this trend could continue for many months, with inflows to other ETFs muted, the net effect may be higher selling pressure in the coming weeks. Still, ETH prices have corrected sharply. It trades 12.5% higher from a major YTD support level and above the 200-day moving average. Consequently, ETH prices are unlikely to trend much lower from current levels. Breakout to the upside also remains unlikely in the near-term given the lack of major news flow. A bullish put spread is an astute trade set up to harvest elevated put IVs amid a narrow trading range. A bullish put spread consists of a short put at a higher strike combined with a long put at a lower strike. This position benefits from the net credit earned from the short put position net off the premium paid for the long put. Long put provides the crucial downside risk protection while also reducing the margin required. The proposed hypothetical trade set up comprises of short 3100 put combined with a long 3000 put on CME Micro Ether Options expiring in August. While the position offers a fixed upside and downside, it is crucial to note that the maximum loss for this position (USD -6.5) is higher than the maximum profit (USD 3.5). As such, the position would lose money in case the present downturn in ETH prices continues. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MET1!
by mintdotfinance
Ethereum: Past Successes and Future ChallengesSince its inception in July 2015, Ethereum has undergone a remarkable ascent in value, surging from a mere $0.31 to its current price of $3,000. This represents an extraordinary return on investment of nearly 10,000 times, potentially transforming modest investments into substantial fortunes. However, the pivotal question remains: does Ethereum still harbor the potential to elevate investors to millionaire status? While Ethereum's past performance speaks volumes, the prospect becomes more ambiguous when considering its future trajectory. Upon its introduction in 2015, Ethereum held an unrivaled position as the premier smart contract blockchain platform, benefitting from a significant first-mover advantage. It wasn't until 2020, with the emergence of blockchain competitor Solana, that Ethereum faced its first credible challenger. Consider this scenario: visualize a prominent Silicon Valley tech giant enjoying an unparalleled five-year lead over its rivals. After such a substantial period, it would likely have solidified its dominance in market share, intellectual property, and customer loyalty, appearing virtually invincible. However, applying this analogy to Ethereum's situation reveals the daunting challenge of replicating its past success. The landscape has evolved considerably since Ethereum's inception, with numerous competitors vying for prominence. Unlike in 2015, Ethereum now contends with formidable competition, with three of the top 15 cryptocurrencies directly challenging its supremacy. Moreover, enthusiasm for Ethereum's ongoing blockchain upgrades has somewhat diminished. While the 2022 blockchain upgrade, known as The Merge, was undoubtedly impressive—comparable to changing the engine of a plane mid-flight—it also marked a turning point. Although The Merge notably enhanced Ethereum's performance, making it faster, more cost-effective, and efficient in transaction processing, the relentless pursuit of upgrades raises concerns about Ethereum's stability and long-term viability. Nevertheless, Ethereum's initial promise of delivering 1 million transactions per second remains unfulfilled, with the network relying on a complex array of Layer 2 blockchains to address scalability and functionality issues. The core Ethereum blockchain, known as Layer 1, struggles with speed and efficiency, necessitating several more upgrade cycles to introduce new adjustments and enhancements. While incremental innovation is commendable, there exists a notable distinction between incremental and truly disruptive innovation. This is where apprehension regarding Ethereum lies. The Merge may have marked the end of disruptive innovation, potentially paving the way for agile competitors to challenge Ethereum's dominance. Adding to the uncertainty is ongoing regulatory scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Following The Merge, the SEC has yet to determine whether Ethereum should be classified as a commodity or a security. The transition to a proof-of-stake blockchain could have regulatory implications, particularly concerning the staking process, which some may interpret as an investment with profit expectations derived from others' efforts. This legal ambiguity holds significant implications for investors, as Bitcoin maximalists revel in Ethereum's regulatory uncertainty. There is a tangible risk that the SEC might classify Ethereum as a security, deterring many investors. Consider this scenario: achieving millionaire status from a $1,000 investment in cryptocurrency today would necessitate a 1,000-fold return on investment. Consequently, the pivotal question regarding Ethereum's potential as a millionaire-maker cryptocurrency revolves around whether it can appreciate by 1,000 times its current value of $3,000. Such a monumental rise would imply a staggering $3 million price per Ethereum coin in the foreseeable future. With Ethereum's circulating supply standing at 120 million coins, this would translate to a total market capitalization of $360 trillion—exceeding the current total market capitalization of the S&P 500, which is approximately $50 trillion. In essence, solely relying on past performance for investment decisions is akin to driving a car while fixating on the rearview mirror. It's imperative to shift focus towards Ethereum's potential to generate value in the future, rather than dwelling on its historical track record. Now, regarding the volume analysis and the chart provided: The price of the Future is currently under bearish pressure, characterized by low tick volumes. However, the price is above the 70% retracement from the previous swing, indicating a discount area for potential buying opportunities. Our strategy involves setting buy limits within an area of inefficiency, with stop losses positioned below. We anticipate the price to retrace to the Fair Value Point of Control (POC) and continue its upward trajectory.
CME:ETH1!Long
by FOREXN1
1
ETH completes the sell off - Halving in BTC will get us ATHSo the Ethereum Futures have finally filled the gap and IMHO we have now completed the bearish correction in the major crypto futures. I am now looking for both BTC and ETH to make higher highs and higher lows on the intraday charts. With the BTC chart, the volume and triangle/pennant pattern aligned with the correcting over time theory, and the ETH has done something similar. The difference is the weak holders of ETH just got shaken out as they thought today's price action was the start of a sell-off. For the bears, I would say, we would need to see a decent close at the lows of today's price action and for the volume to be high. From there you would want to see a retest of a high volume area on the profiles and then a decent sell off. I doubt we get that though. For the bulls, you want to see the current price action as a sweep of the stops below the lows. The filling of the gap means that the algo's have done their job and we need to see confirmation of this with rising volume, higher swing highs and higher swing lows. If the bulls win, we just buy the dips.
CME:ETH1!Long
by Macrobriefing
4